海光信息 摘要 • 阿里巴巴等头部企业资本支出大幅增长，本季度阿里资本支出同比增长 260%，环比增长 80%，主要投入云基础设施，直接拉动整个板块，预示 着算力基础设施建设进入加速期。 • DeepSpeed 的低成本高效开源模式深刻改变 ARM 竞争格局，降低了大 模型训练的资本门槛，使得投资逻辑从英伟达主线向算力国产化和 AI 国产 化的大模型路线转移。 • AI 手机预计在 2025 年迎来元年，其最终形态将以大模型为核心，整合应 用程序，实现用户通过语音或文字指令直接调用应用功能，为办公、传媒、 游戏等领域带来新的增长点。 • 海光信息作为国产高端处理器龙头，营收复合增长率接近 100%，其 CPU 性能对标国际大厂，受益于信创带来的国产化替代机会，预计 2027 年 x86 服务器 CPU 营收相比 2025 年仍能实现 280%的增长。 • 海光信息的 GPU 深算一号在性价比上优于英伟达 A100，且具备生态扩展 能力，更好适配国际商业计算软件及人工智能相关软件，预计 2024 年营 收约 89 亿元，净利润约 19 亿元。 Q&A 当前科技板块的核心投资观点是什么？ 当前科技板块的核心投资观 ...

[Table_Stock] 海光信息（688041） [Table_Rating] 买入（首次） [◼Table_Summary] 投资摘要 [Table_I 行业 ndustry] : 电子 日期: shzqdatemark 2025年02月21日 [Table_Author] 分析师: 刘京昭 | E-mail: | liujingzhao@shzq.com | | --- | --- | | SAC 编号: | S0870523040005 | [Table_BaseInfo] 基本数据 | 最新收盘价（元） | 136.15 | | --- | --- | | 12mth A 股价格区间（元） | 67.68- 159.18 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2,324.34 | | 无限售 A 股/总股本 | 38.14% | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,207.05 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年股票与沪深 300 比较 -18% -4% 10% 24% 38% 52% 66% 80% 93% 02/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 12/24 02/25 海光信息 沪深30 ...

半导体板块21日盘中发力走高，截至发稿，翱捷科技、海光信息涨超10%，德明利涨停创历史新高，盛 科通信、寒武纪涨近9%，华虹公司涨超4%。 消息面上，根据北京市规划和自然资源委员会网站信息，北京亦庄新城YZ00-0606街区0001-2地块工业 用地项目2月18日竞拍结果公布，竞得人为北京经开区下属的北京永闳毅科技有限公司。据上述项目挂 牌文件，拟建项目总投资不低于500亿元，项目固定资产投资不低于400亿元，达产年产值不低于60亿 元。 此外，2月17日，IDM半导体厂商燕东微向其实控人北京电控定向增发募资40.2亿元的计划获交易所受 理。据燕东微定增募集说明书，募集资金用于北电集成12英寸集成电路生产线项目投资，该项目总投资 金额将高达330亿元，据项目建设计划，北电集成项目已于2024年底前开工建设，预计将在2025年四季 度设备搬入，2026年底实现量产，2030年满产，月产能达5万片。 中信证券指出，近期北京规划两条集成电路新产能，预计未来相关建设每年将对国内设备采购需求有约 65亿元的拉动，利好国内半导体设备公司成长。此外，美国针对海外半导体设备公司开展对华销售调 查，后续海外设备的采购难度持续加 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the upcoming year [8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of between 872 million to 953 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.04% to 58.52%. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 181 million to 201 million yuan, with a growth rate of 43.29% to 59.12% [1][2]. - The company's DCU products are rapidly evolving and gaining market recognition, supporting various applications in data centers, cloud computing, and high-performance computing, which is driving significant revenue growth [2][3]. - The DeepSeek V3 and R1 models have been successfully adapted to the company's DCU technology, enhancing performance through innovative techniques such as Multi-Head Latent Attention and reinforcement learning, making them suitable for complex decision-making tasks [4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 877.2 million, 1,231.1 million, and 1,639.6 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 1.18, and 1.58 yuan. The current stock price reflects a PE ratio of 156, 108, and 81 times for the same years [8][10]. Product Development - The company is making significant progress with its deep computing series products and is increasing investments in DCU software, creating a comprehensive software stack that is compatible with major deep learning frameworks [3][4]. - The DCU technology is being applied across various sectors, including education, finance, healthcare, and government, indicating a broad market application and scalability [7]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic general computing market, driven by strong R&D investments and continuous technological innovation [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][18]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 87.2-95.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.0%-58.5%, and a net profit of 18.1-20.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3%-59.1% [7][4]. - The company is focusing on increasing its R&D investment, projected to be 32.3-36.6 billion yuan in 2024, which is a year-on-year growth of 15.0%-30.3% [8][2]. - The CPU and DCU products are expected to expand their market applications significantly, benefiting from the rapid growth of the AI chip market and the domestic hardware industry [12][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 91 billion yuan, 124 billion yuan, and 161 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 19 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan, and 40 billion yuan for the same period [4][13]. - The company’s earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.81 yuan in 2024 to 1.73 yuan in 2026 [5][15]. Market Trends - The domestic hardware market is expected to grow from approximately 214.6 billion yuan in 2022 to 788.95 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 38.5% [12][3]. - The AI chip market in China is projected to grow from 65.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 258.2 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 31.7% [12][3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s EBIT margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 26.4% in 2024 and 32.7% in 2026 [5][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 9.2% in 2024 to 14.7% in 2026 [5][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected growth in integrated circuit business driven by downstream demand [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 8.983 billion to 9.53 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.04% to 58.52%, and a net profit of 1.81 billion to 2.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 43.3% to 59.1% [1][4]. - Continuous high-intensity R&D investment is enhancing the company's core technology autonomy, with expected R&D expenditure of 3.23 billion to 3.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.96% to 30.26% [2]. - The rapid iteration of CPU and DPU products is improving the company's market position, supporting the construction of data centers and computational platforms, and facilitating the large-scale application of AI across various sectors [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a revenue increase from 6.012 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.983 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 49.4% [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 1.263 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.952 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 54.5% [5][9]. R&D and Technology Development - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 1,855 R&D personnel making up 91.07% of the total workforce, and has accumulated numerous patents and intellectual property rights [2]. - The development of a complete software stack compatible with major deep learning frameworks is enhancing the company's product offerings [3]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 172, 122, and 90 respectively, indicating a decreasing valuation multiple as earnings grow [5][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy gross margin, with projections of 62.42% in 2024 and 63.42% in 2025 [9].

Summary of Haiguang Information Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haiguang Information - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on CPU and GPU products Key Points and Arguments - **2024 Performance Forecast**: - Expected revenue between 8.72 billion to 9.53 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.04% to 58.52% [3][4] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders between 1.81 billion to 2.01 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 43.29% to 59.12% [3][4] - Expected non-recurring net profit of 1.8 billion CNY, showing a growth of 50.48% to 65.44% [4] - **Fourth Quarter Expectations**: - Revenue anticipated to be between 2.58 billion to 3.39 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 24.85% to 63.99% [3][4] - Net profit growth may slow down due to increased R&D and marketing expenses [4] - **Growth Drivers**: - Revenue growth primarily driven by rapid increases in CPU and GPU product demand [4][5] - CPU demand boosted by increased needs from telecommunications, finance, and government sectors, with a significant rise in server localization from 30% in 2021-2022 to an expected 67% by 2025 [5] - GPU growth supported by partnerships with leading internet companies and applications in AI and big data [4][5] - **2025 Outlook**: - Anticipated benefits from the implementation of special bonds and continued penetration in key industries, leading to increased server localization [4][7] - Continued R&D investment in GPU technology to enhance computing capabilities and market share [4][7] - Strong demand for AI chips from government and internet sectors, with significant computing center projects underway [7] Risks - **Market Risks**: - Increased uncertainty due to intensified US-China relations [8] - Heightened market competition [8] - Potential delays in asset center development [8] Additional Important Information - **R&D and Marketing Investments**: - Significant increase in R&D spending, with a nearly 50% year-on-year rise in quarterly R&D expenses [6] - Increased marketing efforts for high-end processors to capture larger market shares [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve operating revenue between 8.72 billion and 9.53 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.04% to 58.52%. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is between 1.81 billion and 2.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.29% to 59.12% [4][8] - The company emphasizes R&D investment, with expected R&D expenditure of 3.23 billion to 3.66 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 14.96% to 30.26% compared to 2023. This continuous investment supports product innovation and enhances market competitiveness [7][8] - The company maintains a leading market position in the general computing market through high-intensity R&D and technological innovation, with its CPU and DCU products gaining wider market recognition, particularly in AI applications [7][8] Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials for 2024-2026 include: - Operating revenue: 9.125 billion yuan in 2024, 12.136 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.777 billion yuan in 2026 [6][10] - Net profit: 1.91 billion yuan in 2024, 2.735 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.676 billion yuan in 2026 [6][10] - EPS (Earnings Per Share): Expected to be 0.82 yuan in 2024, 1.18 yuan in 2025, and 1.58 yuan in 2026 [11] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 174.6 in 2024 to 90.7 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [8][11] Market Position - The company is positioned as a core player in the domestic computing market, with strong competitiveness in its CPU and DCU products, benefiting from the current AI trend and domestic innovation initiatives [7][8]

Revenue and Profit Projections - The company expects 2024 annual operating revenue to be between 872 million and 953 million CNY, an increase of 270.8 million to 351.8 million CNY compared to the previous year, representing a growth of 45.04% to 58.52%[3] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be between 181 million and 201 million CNY, an increase of 54.68 million to 74.68 million CNY year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 43.29% to 59.12%[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 171 million and 188 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 57.36 million to 74.36 million CNY, indicating a growth of 50.48% to 65.44%[5] Research and Development Investment - Research and development investment for 2024 is projected to be between 323 million and 366 million CNY, an increase of 42.02 million to 85.02 million CNY compared to the previous year, representing a growth of 14.96% to 30.26%[5] - The company maintains a leading market position through high-intensity R&D investment, focusing on technology innovation and product performance enhancement[7] Market Position and Product Performance - The company's CPU products have expanded market applications and increased market share, supporting complex applications in data centers and cloud computing[7] - The DCU products have rapidly iterated and gained wider market recognition, supporting AI industry applications with high computing power and good software ecosystem[7] Earnings Forecast Accuracy - There are no significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of this earnings forecast[8] - The forecast data is preliminary and subject to change upon the release of the audited annual report for 2024[9] Previous Year Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 601.2 million CNY in the previous year, with a net profit of 126.3 million CNY attributable to shareholders[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming year [14][17]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leader in the domestic chip sector, with its CPU business experiencing rapid growth. The DCU business is also gaining strength, which is expected to open new growth opportunities for the company [14][17]. - The company has successfully applied for multiple patents, enhancing its technological independence and capabilities in processor interconnect technology, which is crucial for AI applications [18]. - The company reported significant revenue growth, with a 55.64% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2024, and a net profit growth of 69.22% [18]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 6,012 million - 2024: 8,929 million - 2025: 12,323 million - 2026: 16,087 million - The expected growth rates for revenue are 17.3% in 2023, 48.5% in 2024, 38.0% in 2025, and 30.5% in 2026 [14][16]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1,263 million - 2024: 1,958 million - 2025: 2,594 million - 2026: 3,397 million - The growth rates for net profit are projected at 57.2% for 2023, 55.0% for 2024, 32.5% for 2025, and 30.9% for 2026 [14][16]. Key Financial Metrics - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2023: 0.54 - 2024: 0.84 - 2025: 1.12 - 2026: 1.46 - Price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to decrease from 259 in 2023 to 96 in 2026, indicating improving valuation [14][16].