8月11日，南下资金净买入港股3834.39万港元。 其中，净买入小米集团-W 5.62亿、康方生物3.05亿、东方甄选1.87亿、晶泰控股1.16亿； 净卖出小鹏汽车-W 6.64亿、信达生物5.27亿、腾讯控股3.39亿、美团-W 2.64亿、阿里巴巴-W 2.33亿、 中芯国际2.37亿。 北水关注个股 小米集团今日微跌0.88%，连续5个交易日收绿。中金发表报告，预计小米集团第二季度收入将达1179.7 亿元，按年增长32.71%，经调整净利润101.8亿元，按年增长64.84%(包含电动车及创新业务3.6亿元亏 损)。该行将小米目标价下调9%至70港元，对应2025及2026年市盈率分别为34.4倍和25.1倍，潜在上行 空间29.6%，维持"跑赢行业"评级。 小鹏汽车今日大涨5.36%。小鹏汽车首款增程车型——小鹏X9增程版MPV已于8月8日进入工信部新一批 新车公示清单，这意味着该车距离上市愈来愈近。小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏、发文表示，首款"超级电动车 型"小鹏X9将会在第四季度正式推出。 信达生物今日跌1.42%。中信证券认为，2025年下半年医疗健康产业的业绩和估值修复趋势确定性较 高，同时分化 ...

据统计，南下资金已连续3日净买入小米，共计27.5701亿港元；连续5日净买入康方生物、共计11.8185 亿港元。(格隆汇) 格隆汇8月11日｜南下资金今日净买入港股3834.39万港元。其中： 净买入小米集团-W 5.62亿、康方生物3.05亿、东方甄选1.87亿、晶泰控股1.16亿； 净卖出小鹏汽车-W 6.64亿、信达生物5.27亿、腾讯控股3.39亿、美团-W 2.64亿、阿里巴巴-W 2.33亿、 中芯国际2.37亿。 | | D. Hos mill | | | | 下载 文川 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 流跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | | 中心国际 | 0.1% | 0.47 | 32.68 Z | 中古国际 | 0.1% | -2.84 | 22.25 L | | 小米集团-W | -0.9% | 3.70 | 19.50亿 | 解讲控股 | 0.0% | -4.32 | 15.50 Z | | 腾讯控股 | 0.0% | 0.93 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the semiconductor industry, highlighting growth opportunities in various segments such as equipment, computing power, and foundry services [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a favorable performance with increased capital expenditures from overseas CSP cloud vendors and TSMC raising its revenue growth guidance for 2025, indicating sustained demand for computing power [1][18]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment companies are showing improved order intake and performance, while overseas storage manufacturers benefit from demand for HBM and other high-end storage products, leading to a marginal recovery in revenue and profitability [1][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with accelerating self-sufficiency and improving performance, particularly in equipment, computing power, foundry services, and the marginal recovery of storage and analog segments [1]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The consumer electronics sector is witnessing a recovery in demand, driven by innovations in AI and automotive applications. Global smartphone shipments saw a year-on-year growth slowdown to 1% in Q2, while domestic shipments declined by 4% [8]. - The global PC market experienced a 6.5% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q2, although forecasts for H2 indicate a potential slowdown [8]. Inventory Side - The DOI (Days of Inventory) for major global smartphone chip manufacturers has slightly improved, with terminal customer inventories remaining low. Intel's inventory and DOI decreased in Q2, indicating a positive trend in inventory management [2]. Supply Side - TSMC is expanding its advanced process production lines in the U.S., with strong demand for AI data centers. The capacity utilization rates for major foundries like SMIC and UMC have shown improvements, indicating a recovery in production capabilities [3]. Price Side - Storage prices are steadily recovering, with DDR4 prices continuing to rise, albeit at a slower pace. The report suggests monitoring potential price increases in the analog chip sector, which could positively impact the industry [4]. Sales Side - In June 2025, global semiconductor sales reached $59.9 billion, a 19.6% increase compared to June 2024. The Asia-Pacific region, excluding China and Japan, saw significant sales growth [9]. Industry Chain Tracking - The report highlights that certain segments of the industry chain are showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in design and IDM sectors, driven by the recovery in consumer demand and AI-related innovations [9]. - The report also notes that domestic storage module and niche storage chip companies are expected to benefit from price increases and inventory improvements, leading to a positive outlook for revenue and profitability [1][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the semiconductor equipment sector, such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei Technology, as well as storage chip manufacturers like Zhaoyi Innovation and Puran Technology, which are expected to benefit from price recovery and improved sales [21].

沪深两市全天主力资金净流入100.20亿元，其中，科创板主力资金净流出20.87亿元，主力资金净流入的 有243只股，主力资金净流出的有344只股。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，今日科创板个股上涨的有499只，涨停的有赛诺医疗、莱尔科技等2只，下 跌的有85只。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入的科创板股共有243只，其中，10只个股主力资金净流入超5000万 元，东芯股份主力资金净流入1.86亿元，净流入资金居首；寒武纪、云从科技紧随其后，全天净流入资 金分别为1.38亿元、9916.17万元。主力资金净流出的有344只，净流出资金最多的是中芯国际，该股今 日上涨0.35%，全天主力资金净流出2.60亿元，其次是海光信息、芯原股份，主力资金净流出分别为 2.30亿元、2.22亿元。 从主力资金连续性进行观察，共有36只个股主力资金连续3个交易日以上持续净流入，连续流入天数最 多的是龙软科技，该股已连续8个交易日净流入；连续净流入天数较多的还有博瑞医药、鼎阳科技等， 主力资金分别连续流入7天、7天。主力资金连续流出的个股有140只，连续流出天数最多的是亿华通， 该股已连续18个交易日净流出；连续净流出天数较多的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in consumer electronics and AI applications, while inventory levels are improving and capital expenditures are being adjusted upwards by key players like TSMC and major overseas semiconductor manufacturers [1][2][4]. Demand Side - The consumer electronics sector is witnessing a recovery, with AI and automotive applications driving innovation. Global smartphone shipments in Q2 saw a year-on-year growth slowdown to 1%, while domestic shipments declined by 4%. PC shipments increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q2, but growth is expected to weaken in H2 2025. Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, are experiencing significant growth, with a 216% year-on-year increase in Q1 shipments [2][3]. - The automotive market in H1 2025 saw a 13.8% year-on-year increase in sales, with new models like Xiaomi's YU7 achieving substantial pre-order numbers [2]. Inventory Side - The Days of Inventory (DOI) for the smartphone supply chain has slightly increased, with terminal customer inventories remaining low. Major chip manufacturers like Intel reported a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a potential for increased shipments as demand rises [3]. Supply Side - TSMC is ramping up its advanced process production lines in the U.S., driven by strong demand from AI data centers. The capacity utilization rates for various foundries, including SMIC and UMC, have shown improvements, with SMIC reaching 92.5% in Q2 2025 [4][12]. - Major memory manufacturers are focusing capital expenditures on high-end memory products like HBM, with companies like Micron and SK Hynix increasing their capital spending forecasts for 2025 [4]. Price Side - Memory prices are showing signs of steady recovery, particularly for DDR4 and NAND Flash products. The analog chip sector is also expected to see potential price increases, which could positively impact the industry [6]. Sales Side - Global semiconductor sales reached $59.9 billion in June 2025, marking a 19.6% year-on-year increase. The Asia-Pacific region, excluding China and Japan, saw a 34.2% year-on-year sales growth, while sales in Japan declined by 2.9% [6]. Industry Chain Tracking - The semiconductor industry is experiencing marginal improvements in various segments, with a focus on companies benefiting from domestic control and recovery in demand. The design and IDM sectors are seeing growth driven by consumer demand and AI applications [6][17]. - The MCU market is recovering, particularly in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, with significant sales increases noted in Q2 2025 [7]. - The storage sector is seeing improved profitability among overseas manufacturers, with domestic companies also expected to recover in H2 2025 [8]. - The analog chip market is experiencing good demand trends, with many domestic companies reporting improved revenue in Q2 2025 [9]. Advanced Manufacturing and Testing - The demand for advanced processes remains strong, with TSMC maintaining a robust growth forecast for AI-related chips. The utilization rates for mature processes are also recovering, although customer inventory demand for Q4 2025 remains uncertain [12][13]. - Major international packaging and testing companies are forecasting significant revenue growth for Q3 2025, with domestic companies increasing investments in advanced packaging capabilities [13]. Equipment, Materials, and Components - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are showing positive trends in orders and revenue growth, while international firms express caution regarding future guidance due to geopolitical uncertainties [14]. - The push for domestic supply chain independence is accelerating, with ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on foreign components [14]. EDA/IP Sector - Chip design companies like Chipone are reporting record-high order backlogs, indicating strong demand in the EDA sector [15].

Core Viewpoint - The revenue of SMIC has increased due to rising domestic semiconductor demand, but costs have also risen, leading to a decline in profit for the first time in two quarters [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the period of April to June, SMIC reported a net profit decrease of 19% year-on-year, amounting to $132.48 million [2]. - The operating revenue for the same period grew by 16%, reaching $2.20906 billion [4]. - The equipment utilization rate improved to 93%, compared to 85% in the same period last year [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The proportion of revenue from China increased to 84%, up from 80% year-on-year, while revenue from the U.S. decreased to 13% from 16% [4]. - The increase in orders for automotive and industrial semiconductors is attributed to the Chinese government's guidance for manufacturers to prioritize domestic semiconductors amid U.S.-China tensions [4]. - SMIC's CEO noted that the market share of Chinese automotive manufacturers is expanding, which is beneficial for the company [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry [7]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with significant growth in revenue but slower growth in shipment volumes. The global smartphone market revenue reached over $100 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, while shipment volume only grew by 3% [2][28]. - Major companies like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor reported strong earnings in Q2 2025, with SMIC's revenue at $2.209 billion, up 16.2% year-on-year, and Huahong's revenue at approximately $560 million, up 18.3% year-on-year [3][34][35]. - The AI chip index saw a notable increase of 4.66% this week, driven by significant stock price rises in companies like Nvidia and Broadcom [1][10]. Market Index Summary - The overseas AI chip index increased by 4.66% this week, with Nvidia and Broadcom stocks rising over 5% [1][10]. - The domestic AI chip index decreased by 0.6%, with notable stock performance from companies like 澜起科技, which rose by 11.19% [1][10]. - The server ODM index rose by 0.7%, but individual stock performances varied significantly, with Supermicro experiencing a decline of 21.26% [1][10]. - The storage chip index increased by 3.0%, with 东芯股份 seeing a substantial rise of 28.59% [1][10]. - The power semiconductor index rose by 2.9%, reflecting a positive trend in the sector [1][10]. Industry Data Summary - In Q2 2025, the global smartphone market revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, with an average selling price (ASP) of nearly $350, marking a 7% year-on-year increase [2][28]. - Apple accounted for 43% of the global smartphone market revenue in Q2 2025, with a 13% increase, while Samsung's revenue grew by 4% [2][28]. - The electronic information manufacturing industry in China saw a year-on-year increase of 11.1% in added value for the first half of 2025, outperforming the overall industrial and high-tech manufacturing sectors [2][31].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its earnings per share forecast for SMIC from 2023 to 2027 by 1%, reflecting adjustments in gross margin and operating profit margin assumptions due to increased depreciation and amortization from capacity expansion [1] Financial Performance - The second quarter revenue growth slowdown for SMIC is considered temporary, with the company guiding for a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 5% to 7% for the current quarter [1] - The gross margin guidance for the current quarter is set at 18% to 20%, which is below Goldman Sachs' and market expectations of 20.6% and 21.1% respectively, attributed to increased depreciation and amortization [1] Positive Factors - Positive indicators include stable capacity utilization, strong customer orders, and ongoing capacity expansion that supports the company in capturing demand and providing more complete products [1] - Management anticipates stable orders in the coming quarters, driving delivery growth, with average selling prices on an upward trend due to reduced discounts on 12-inch wafers and higher contributions from 12-inch wafer sales compared to 8-inch wafers [1] Market Outlook - Despite low visibility on end-demand for the fourth quarter, management expects capacity utilization to remain stable, supported by strong customer demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has lowered its earnings per share forecast for SMIC (00981) for the years 2023 to 2027 by 1%, reflecting adjustments in gross margin and operating profit margin assumptions due to increased depreciation and amortization from capacity expansion [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The investment rating for SMIC's H-shares remains "Buy," with a target price of HKD 63.7, based on a target price-to-earnings ratio of 36 times for 2028 [1] - The company is expected to see a temporary slowdown in revenue growth in Q2, with guidance indicating a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 5% to 7% [1] Group 2: Margin and Capacity Insights - The gross margin guidance for the current quarter is set at 18% to 20%, which is below Goldman Sachs' and market expectations of 20.6% and 21.1% respectively, primarily due to increased depreciation and amortization [1] - Positive factors include stable capacity utilization, strong customer orders, and ongoing capacity expansion that supports the company in capturing demand and providing more complete products [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Management anticipates stable orders in the coming quarters, driving delivery growth, with average prices on an upward trend due to reduced discounts on 12-inch wafers and higher contributions from 12-inch wafer sales compared to 8-inch wafers [1] - Despite low visibility in terminal demand for Q4, management expects capacity utilization to remain stable, supported by strong customer demand [1]

Key Events - Trump announced that the U.S. will impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [7] - WSTS reported that the global semiconductor market size is expected to grow by 18.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching $346 billion [10] - SMIC's Zhao Haijun stated that the capacity shortage will last at least until October this year [7][14] - Samsung is reportedly extending its DDR4 production plan until December 2026 [7][18] - SK Hynix has significantly raised the pricing for HBM4 [7][19] Industry Trends - The Chinese government is pushing for breakthroughs in key brain-machine interface chips, focusing on high-speed, low-power signal processing [9] - Shanghai is accelerating the development of specialized chips for embodied intelligence [9] - The global semiconductor sales in Q2 2025 are projected to reach $179.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% [11] Company Updates - SMIC reported Q2 revenue of $2.21 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.5% [13][14] - Hua Hong Semiconductor achieved a Q2 revenue of $566 million, with a gross margin of 10.9% [13] - Samsung is investing in a new 1c DRAM production line, aiming for a monthly capacity of 150,000 to 200,000 wafers by mid-next year [15] Market Dynamics - The average trading price of PC DRAM products has increased for four consecutive months, with July's price reaching $3.90, a 50% month-on-month increase [19] - The advanced IC substrate market is expected to reach $31 billion by 2030, driven by AI and other emerging applications [11] Technological Advancements - Zhejiang University announced a breakthrough in neuromorphic computing with the launch of a new generation of brain-like computers, supporting over 2 billion neurons [21]