Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant outflow of funds from the US technology sector and highlights the resilience of the US economy as indicated by the revised GDP growth rate, which has implications for global interest rate expectations [2][9]. Economic Data - The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, surpassing the previous 3.3% estimate, marking the strongest performance since Q3 2023 [2][9]. - Strong consumer spending and a decline in imports contributed to this upward revision, indicating economic resilience and cooling global rate cut expectations [2][9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.20%, while the US dollar index increased by 0.55% to 98.2, remaining below 100 [2][9]. Market Movements - The article notes that the Asia-Pacific stock markets, including the Hang Seng Index, KOSPI, and Sensex, experienced significant declines, while commodities saw gains, with Brent crude oil rising by 4.60% and COMEX gold increasing by 2.83% [2][9]. - In the past week, there was a notable inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with domestic inflows of $29.83 million and foreign inflows of $24.80 million [3][11]. Fund Flows - The article reports that US equity funds saw inflows into real estate, industrials, and healthcare, while experiencing outflows from financials, communications, and technology sectors. Conversely, Chinese equity markets saw inflows into technology, finance, and consumer sectors, with outflows from infrastructure, energy, and real estate [3][11]. - Specifically, the US technology sector experienced an outflow of $43.3 million, while the Chinese technology sector saw an inflow of $35.5 million [3][11]. Valuation Metrics - As of September 26, 2025, the PE ratio percentiles for the S&P 500 and DAX were at 93.0% and 89.5%, respectively, indicating high valuations compared to historical levels. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index have recovered to above 50% but still have room for growth compared to US valuations [4][18]. - The article highlights that the equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite and other indices remains relatively high, suggesting better value in the Chinese stock market compared to global markets [4][18]. Risk Indicators - The S&P 500 index closed at 6643.70, above the 20-day moving average, with an increase in the put-call ratio indicating a more cautious market sentiment [5][9]. - The implied volatility for the Shanghai Composite options decreased significantly compared to the previous week, reflecting a stable outlook for the market [5][9]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key upcoming economic indicators include China's September manufacturing PMI and the US September non-farm payrolls and ISM services PMI [6][17].

Group 1 - The article announces the launch of the 2026 autumn campus recruitment by Shenwan Hongyuan Research, emphasizing the company's commitment to nurturing talent and building a long-term professional research team [5][7]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is one of the earliest and largest comprehensive securities research institutions in mainland China, focusing on a wide range of investment research areas including macroeconomics, industry analysis, and investment strategies [7]. - The company boasts a research team of over 300 professionals, dedicated to providing systematic and stable professional research services to the capital market [7]. Group 2 - The recruitment program includes various positions such as macroeconomic analysts, bond analysts, strategy analysts, financial engineering analysts, stock analysts, market analysts, and researchers in the industry research institute [11]. - The training program for new employees is comprehensive, featuring a dual capability system that combines innovation and tradition, and aims to facilitate continuous development through structured training [9][10]. - The recruitment is targeted at graduates from domestic and overseas institutions, with specific graduation dates outlined for eligibility [14].

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a positive trend despite short-term fluctuations, with October A-shares likely entering a critical window period for risk appetite recovery [1][2][4] - Historical data suggests that the market typically performs well after the National Day holiday, with current valuations remaining reasonable and not overly stretched [1][3] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with opportunities for "high-low cut" strategies within this sector [6][7] Group 2 - The liquidity in the market is anticipated to remain favorable, supported by factors such as the upward trend in margin financing and potential seasonal inflows from foreign capital [1][4][5] - The focus on cyclical industries is expected to yield better performance in the fourth quarter, with over 65% probability of these sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] - Areas with improving earnings or sustained high growth are projected to generate excess returns, particularly in mid-to-high-end manufacturing and the AI industry chain [7]

Core Viewpoint - After the adjustment in the A-share market, October is likely to be a favorable month for capital market expectations to stabilize and rise, with key policy layout opportunities emerging [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The adjustment in the A-share market is expected to lead to a "red October," which is a period of potential recovery and growth [1] - The cyclical catalysts are anticipated to be limited in Q4 2025, while the focus on demand will shift towards the new round of policy and economic bottoming in 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The technology sector continues to show upward trends, with the overseas AI industry still on the rise and not yet reaching its limits, while the domestic AI industry is also making continuous progress [1] - The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology sector, with structural highlights emerging since the adjustment in September [1] Group 3: Future Projections - October is expected to see a resonance between industry highlights and long-term policy layouts, potentially reigniting structural enthusiasm [1] - The spring of 2026 may represent a phase peak, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the peak of the current bull market, as conditions for a comprehensive bull market will continue to strengthen over time [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased on a week - on - week basis this period, and are expected to decline during the National Day holiday next period. As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is lower than that of 2024, with the progress of new general bonds higher but that of new special bonds lower than that of 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 840 billion yuan, including 485.8 billion yuan of new special bonds. As of September 26, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed this information [2]. - This period saw the issuance of 50.6 billion yuan of special new special bonds and 11.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 1,201.2 billion yuan, and that of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1,986.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.3% [2]. - The spread between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of September 26, 2025, the spreads were 22.32BP and 18.30BP respectively, up 6.21BP and 1.26BP from September 19, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 1.26%, up from 0.87% in the previous period [2]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploring the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has improved [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds this period (September 22 - 28, 2025) was 196.051 billion yuan (188.519 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance next period (September 29 - October 3, 2025) is 107.153 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 19.81 years, longer than 15.89 years in the previous period [2][9][11]. - As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 82.7% and 82.6% of the annual quota respectively, and 83.9% and 83.8% considering the expected issuance next period. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 82.1%/85.0% and 84.4%/89.8%, and in 2023 was 89.6%/84.7% and 90.1%/87.0% [2][12][16]. - As of September 26, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 840 billion yuan (540.6 billion yuan in October and 299.4 billion yuan in November), including 485.8 billion yuan of new special bonds (367.8 billion yuan in October and 118 billion yuan in November) [2][22][23]. - As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 1,201.2 billion yuan (50.6 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1,986.2 billion yuan (11.4 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.3%, and 31 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance [2][20]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between 10 - year and 30 - year Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased on a Week - on - Week Basis - As of September 26, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.32BP and 18.30BP respectively, up 6.21BP and 1.26BP from September 19, 2025, and were at the 67.90% and 72.00% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][26][31]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 1.26%, up from 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Shandong were better than the national average [2][38]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently undergoing a small-scale adjustment phase, which is expected to end soon, leading to a probable "Red October" rally as long-term policy layouts approach and technological catalysts continue to unfold [1][2]. Market Adjustment and Outlook - The market has been in a small adjustment phase since early September, with the core issue being a lack of consensus on the structural mainline to push the index higher. The space and time for a technology-driven bull market are limited, leading to a focus on price-performance issues [1]. - The adjustment is not expected to lead to a major downturn, as there are no significant downward risks in the medium term. Economic improvements are anticipated in 2025 H2, and policy measures are expected to gain momentum, supporting the upward supply-demand expectations for 2026 [1][2]. - The recent U.S. tariff disturbances are deemed to have limited incremental impact on the A-share market, provided that trade barriers do not isolate China from its economic partners [1]. Catalysts and Structural Trends - October is viewed as a critical policy layout window, where the adjustment phase may enhance market expectations. The cyclical catalysts are expected to be less impactful in Q4 2025, while the technology sector continues to show upward trends, particularly in AI [2][3]. - The medium-term outlook suggests that technological catalysts will dominate over cyclical catalysts until spring 2026, with potential price-performance issues in the short to medium term [3][4]. Sector Performance and Investment Strategy - The technology sector is expected to maintain a favorable trend, with high elasticity in new catalysts and sectors that have already seen significant gains, such as overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and advanced manufacturing technologies [4][5]. - The transition from structural bull to a comprehensive bull market is seen as critical, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals, which are expected to benefit from increased industry concentration and pricing power [4][5]. Hong Kong Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, supported by the anticipated effects of interest rate cuts and the influence of U.S. monetary policy under Trump. This environment is expected to bolster the performance of gold and other commodities [5].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a slight increase this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.96% [1] - Open-source Securities suggests that the technology sector is likely to perform well during the National Day holiday, with a focus on high P/E ratio stocks post-holiday [1] - Key sectors for investment include technology growth in military industry, AI hardware, semiconductors, and financial technology [1] Group 2 - Huajin Securities indicates that the A-share market may continue to experience a volatile trend in the short term, with limited risks during the holiday [2] - Recommended sectors for investment include electronics, communications, machinery, and new energy, which are expected to see fundamental improvements [2] Group 3 - Everbright Securities anticipates that the market will likely continue to rise after the National Day holiday, supported by reasonable valuations and liquidity-driven trends [3] - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key focus for mid to long-term investment, with several catalysts expected to drive growth [3] Group 4 - Caitong Securities emphasizes the continuation of favorable catalysts, suggesting investors hold stocks during the holiday [4] - The report notes that domestic economic stability and structural reforms are expected to contribute to market growth, with a focus on technology and new consumption sectors [4] Group 5 - Shenwan Hongyuan points out that October is likely to see a resurgence in structural heat, driven by policy layouts and technological advancements [5] - Key investment areas include overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage, with significant potential for absolute returns [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan Research indicates that Zhongmin Resources' business primarily includes lithium salts, minor metals, and copper, and employs a segment valuation method to analyze the company's value [1] Summary by Sections - **Profit Forecast**: The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 445 million, 1.063 billion, and 1.733 billion yuan respectively [1] - **Growth Contribution**: Starting from 2026, new projects in minor metals and copper are expected to contribute significantly to growth, with the contributions to net profit from lithium salts, minor metals, and copper in 2026 estimated at approximately 177 million, 725 million, and 161 million yuan respectively [1] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is assigned price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28x for lithium salts, 41x for minor metals, and 14x for copper for the year 2026, leading to a target market value of 36.8 billion yuan for 2026 [1] - **Market Potential**: The target market value of 36.8 billion yuan represents a 17.36% upside potential compared to the current market value of 31.4 billion yuan, prompting a first-time coverage with an "overweight" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock option incentive plan by Unisoc is expected to drive long-term growth and reflects the company's confidence in future performance [1] Group 1: Stock Option Incentive - The company plans to grant 16.8 million stock options to 466 core executives and technical backbones, representing approximately 1.98% of the current total share capital [1] - The large scale of the incentive plan is expected to effectively motivate the team and enhance performance, indicating a high-quality personnel structure [1] Group 2: Financial Performance Outlook - The company projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.7% for net profit and net profit attributable to the parent company from 2024 to 2028, showcasing confidence in future earnings growth [1] - The stock option plan is anticipated to further stimulate employee motivation, leading to a period of rapid revenue growth [1] - The impact of amortization expenses on the financials is expected to be limited, allowing for high growth in company performance [1] Group 3: Market Position and Demand - The company is positioned as an industry leader with superior product performance, and demand across multiple sectors is accelerating [1] - Future performance is expected to achieve rapid growth due to the combination of strong product capabilities and increasing market demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock incentive plan by Unisoc is expected to ensure long-term growth and marks a new growth phase for the company [1] Group 1: Stock Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant 16.8 million stock options to 466 core executives and technical backbones, representing approximately 1.98% of the current total share capital [1] - The large scale of the stock incentive plan is expected to effectively motivate the company's team and reflects a high-quality personnel structure [1] Group 2: Performance Expectations - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.7% for net profit and net profit attributable to the parent company from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong confidence in future performance [1] - The stock incentive plan is expected to further enhance employee motivation, leading to a period of rapid revenue growth for the company [1] Group 3: Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as an industry leader with superior product performance, and demand across multiple fields is accelerating [1] - Given the favorable conditions, the company's performance is expected to achieve rapid growth, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [1]