坚定出海搏增长，关注美洲与新兴市场机遇 耐用消费品2026年投资策略 章鹏 张影秋 peng.zhang@nomuraoi-sec.com yingqiu.zhang@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC执证编号：S1720521100001 SAC执证编号：S1720522110001 STRICTLYPRIVATEANDCONFIDENTIAL 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 耐用品策略：坚定出海搏增长，关注美洲与新兴市场机遇 1 ◼ 展望2026年，我们认为"出海主线"相关标的的投资回报表现将更值得期待 尽管"出海主线"相关标的在2026年上半年仍会因抢出口导致的高基数面临增长压力，但是下半年在内需饱受 国补透支效应与住宅交易性需求减少拖累影响时，以海外为主的企业可凭地产地销策略、高质价比产品与渠道拓宽 策略抢占份额以实现增长。 2025/12 ©Nomura ◼ 国补透支效应、高基数压力与住宅交易性需求孱弱三大因素压制耐用品内销表现 建立在2026年耐用消费品内销难有亮眼表现的判断基础上，针对以内销为主的耐用消费品企业和地产后周期企 业，我们仅推荐两 ...

11 月家电社零偏弱，26 年 1 月错期影响下空调排产反弹 11 月社会消费品零售总额当月值 43,898.0 亿元，同比+1.3%，较 10 月 2.9%的增速有所回落；25 下半年，社零增速整 体呈逐月放缓态势。11 月家电社零当月规模约 1000 亿元，同比-19.4%，较 10 月增速降幅进一步扩大；从月度节奏 看，家电社零增速自 6 月高位后持续回落，至 10 月转负、11 月继续走弱，主要系：1）去年国补拉动形成较高基数， 使今年同期对比压力更大；2）今年国补力度边际退坡，叠加前期需求一定程度前置，终端需求回落，从而拖累家电社 零同比明显下滑。 空调方面，错期影响下 26 年 1 月内需排产出现阶段性回升，但零售端仍偏弱。2025 年家用空调排产计划值年内呈"先 高后低"走势，进入 2026 年初排产反弹，奥维云网推总数据显示 1 月空调内销排产 884 万台同比+32.0%、出口排产 1113 万台同比+14.0%，出口端实现自 2025 年 5 月以来连续 7 个月负增长后的首次由负转正。本轮排产改善更多来自 节日错期下的企业排产前置（2026 年春节落于 2 月，备货与排产窗口前移、部分 ...

行 业 研 华福证券 家用电器 2025 年 12 月 20 日 家用电器 究 iRobot 被收购利好国内头部品牌，白电内销高基 数承压 投资要点： iRobot 被收购利好国内头部品牌，白电内销高基数承压 行 业 定 期 报 告 核心家电品类内销受高基数影响下滑。奥维 11 月数据出炉，受到 去年国补高基数的影响，以及前期国补消费透支的影响，9 月以来主要 家电品类同比出现下滑，其中 11 月份空调/冰箱/洗衣机销售额同比 -34.5%/-34.4%/-19.2%，销售量同比-30.65%/-30.79%/-16.2%，洗地机/ 扫地机器人 11 月销售额同比-17%/-28.6%，销售量同比-11.4%/-23.3%。 11 月空调内外销大盘仍受到高基数，前期消费透支的影响承压。 2025 年 11 月产业在线空调内销 405 万台，同比-40%，出口 644 万台， 同比-25.6%，同比出现明显下滑主要因 1）内销淡季，国补高基数影响 以及前期国补消费透支；2）外销随着产业链的对外转移，也使得表观 增速或低于实际需求增速。 11 月空调美的内销份额稳定，外销份额明显提升，海尔内销表现 亮眼同比实现正 ...

龙虎榜方面，AI医疗人气股华人健康冲高回落，三家一线游资（国泰海通证券上海中山东路、国泰海通证券成都北一环路、国泰海通证券南京太平南路） 分别卖出1.16亿元、0.61亿元、0.45亿元。尾盘多只高位股遭遇抢跑跳水，人气股平潭发展从涨近5%跳水至跌超7%，其中深股通买入8458万元，一家量化席 位（国信证券浙江互联网分公司）买入1.01亿元，但今日卖出1.14亿元，合计净卖出1343万元。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为940.49亿元，深股通总成交金额为1048.92亿元。 | | | 沪股通( 12月19日 ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | 23.86 | | 2 | 601899 | 三十四年薪 | 16.87 | | 3 | 603993 | 洛阳铜业 | 15.55 | | 4 | 600519 | 豊州茅台 | 14.44 | | 5 | 603259 | 药明康德 | 10.81 | | 6 | 600919 | 江苏银行 | 10.74 | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Positive" for investment, marking it as the first recommendation for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that leading companies with strong product capabilities, channel efficiency, cost control, and brand premium are positioned to gain market share during a challenging domestic demand environment. The industry is shifting from "incremental competition" to "stock integration" [4]. - It highlights that while short-term revenue growth may be difficult to expect, leading companies are likely to maintain profit growth due to improved efficiency and cost reduction. A stabilization in demand could lead to a new golden era for these companies [4]. - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: companies benefiting from domestic market consolidation, those redefining products for overseas markets, and quality dividend stocks with low valuations [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance and Fundamentals - The home appliance sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.7%, lagging behind the index by 7.8 percentage points, primarily due to external tariffs and domestic policy fluctuations [9]. - The report notes that the home appliance sector's valuation remains low compared to other consumer sectors, with a PE ratio of 14.7X as of November 30, 2025, reflecting the industry's mature phase and pressures from declining domestic real estate demand [19][20]. 2. Main Line One: Opportunities in Market Consolidation - The report identifies opportunities in the smart projection market, where domestic consolidation is occurring, and leading companies are gaining market share. The market is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [61]. - In the kitchen appliance sector, leading companies are showing resilience in performance despite weak demand, with market shares increasing as smaller competitors exit the market [76]. 3. Main Line Two: Redefining Products for Export Markets - The report discusses the growth potential in the robotic vacuum cleaner market, which is expected to see double-digit growth in the overseas market from 2024 to 2029, driven by product innovation [86]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in the lawn mower robot market, particularly in Europe, where the penetration rate is expected to rise significantly [104]. 4. Main Line Three: Quality Dividend Stocks - The report suggests that companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home are positioned well due to their stable cash flows and increasing dividend payouts, making them attractive for long-term investment [85].

Core Viewpoint - Midea Group has announced the establishment of a "New Energy Division" as part of its organizational restructuring, indicating a strategic upgrade in its new energy business layout [1]. Group 1: Organizational Changes - The New Energy Division will integrate the original New Energy Product Company and Energy Technology Company under the Industrial Technology Division, with Wang Jianguo, the Executive President of Midea Group, appointed as the President of the New Energy Division [1]. - This restructuring reflects Midea Group's long-term commitment to the new energy sector, particularly in photovoltaic and energy storage fields [1]. Group 2: Business Development - Midea Group has been actively involved in the new energy industry, acquiring Beijing Hekang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. for 740 million yuan in March 2020, focusing on components for new energy vehicles, including charging piles and grid operations [1]. - In May 2022, Midea Group announced plans to acquire a 29.96% stake in the listed energy storage company Kelu Electronics for 837 million yuan, successfully completing the share transfer in June 2023, thus becoming the controlling shareholder [1]. - The company aims to develop Kelu Electronics into a key platform for energy management business [1]. Group 3: Industrial Technology Division - Midea Group's Industrial Technology Division focuses on new energy, HVAC, new energy vehicles, and core components for robotics, with brands such as GMCC, Welling, MR, HICONICS, CLOU, and Servotronix under its umbrella [2]. - The division operates 29 smart factories globally and has established 33 R&D testing centers in countries including China, Japan, Turkey, and the United States, covering products like compressors, motors, chips, valves/pumps, new energy vehicle components, and energy storage [2]. Group 4: Energy Operations - Midea Energy, a subsidiary of Midea Group, serves as an operational platform for the development, application, and trading of various renewable energy sources, including photovoltaic and wind energy [2]. - The company is involved in household solar storage, commercial energy solutions, and is constructing a virtual power plant operation platform [2]. - Midea's Building Technology Company, previously focused on HVAC, has expanded into solar storage and energy management services for users in recent years [2].

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000651 格力电器 | | -2478.47万 | 1.96% | -2191.72万 | -1.73% | -286.75万 | -0.23% | | 002668 | TCL智家 | 1560.74万 | 11.71% | -1250.44万 | -9.38% | -310.30万 | -2.33% | | 000521 | 长虹美菱 | 720.97万 | 14.02% | -312.81万 | -6.08% | - -408.16万 | -7.94% | | 000016 | 深康佳A | 275.86万 | 2.93% | -280.49万 | -2.98% | 4.64万 | 0.05% | | 600336 澳柯玛 | | 251.31万 | 0.51% | 312.63万 | 0.63% | -563.94万 | -1.14% | | 000921 ...

2020-2025年1-10月中国家用洗衣机产量统计图 上市企业：美的集团（000333）,海尔智家（600690）,格力电器（000651）,惠而浦（600983）,TCL科技 （000100）,创维数字（000810） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国洗衣机行业市场供需态势及投资前景研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国家用洗衣机产量为1104万台，同比下降2%；2025年1-10月 中国家用洗衣机累计产量为10107.8万台，累计增长6.4%。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《十大外资对2026年A股的建议》 兴业证券分析师梳理整合了包括摩根大通、高盛、瑞银等在内的十家国际主流机构对2026年A股的年度展望，旨在呈现外资视角下对中国资产的结构性共识 与配置逻辑，很有参考价值。 一、摩根大通 即将进入2026年，A股市场的变化趋势已逐渐清晰。以摩根大通为代表的外资机构认为，上市公司能否实现实实在在的"盈利"，将成为推动中国资产上涨的 核心动力。市场的关注点正从前期估值的普遍修复，转向企业业绩的兑现能力。 该机构预测，2026年沪深300指数有望达到5200点，这意味着相较于2025年12月的收盘价，存在约13%的上涨空间。对应的市场平均估值约为15.9倍市盈 率，而上市公司整体的每股收益（EPS）预计将增长15%。这一轮盈利复苏具有广泛基础，调查显示，超过三分之一的细分行业已经进入收入增长区间，盈 利前景得到上调的公司数量比例创下2020年以来的新高。 摩根大通将投资机会归纳为四条清晰的主线：抑制过度竞争（反内卷）、人工智能（AI）、全球化拓展（出海）以及国内需求的局部复苏。 抑制过度竞争（反内卷）：政策正直接对"低价倾销"等行 ...

国别研究 [table_Header]2025.12.18 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 李俊(分析师) | | | 021-23154149 | | | lijun8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040063 | | | 王祎婕(分析师) | | | 021-23185687 | | | wangyijie@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040089 | | | 汪立亭(分析师) | | | 021-23219399 | | | wangliting@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040004 | [Table_Report] 往期回顾 印尼内外需稳健——东南亚国别观察 2025 第 7 期 2025.11.30 企业出海合规要点与案例指南——印尼篇 2025.11.21 越南经济高增——东南亚国别观察 2025 第 6 期 2025.10.30 阿联酋投资洞察：石油王国到转型典范——中东 国别研究专题系列报告二 2025.09.17 出口保持高增长——东南亚国别观察 2025 ...