Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the consumer discretionary sector, highlighting structural investment opportunities [5][10]. Core Insights - The report indicates that in December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 4.5 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points, primarily due to high base effects from durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the new round of trade-in policies for 2026, which focus on core home appliance categories and expand into new categories like smart glasses and products for the elderly, supporting demand in these segments [7]. - The report suggests that consumer sentiment remains strong, particularly in sectors like emotional consumption, technology consumption, and undervalued high-dividend stocks, recommending a focus on domestic brands and global brand expansion [10]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In December, retail sales of food and beverages grew by 2.2% and 0.7% respectively, with urban and rural retail sales increasing by 0.7% and 1.7% year-on-year [8]. - Online retail sales of physical goods in December increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a total annual growth of 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [8]. Consumer Categories - The report notes a structural differentiation in consumer categories, with home appliances, building materials, and furniture experiencing declines of 18.7%, 11.8%, and 2.2% respectively due to high base effects and trade-in policy impacts [9]. - Conversely, communication equipment saw a significant increase of 20.9% year-on-year, while emotional and self-care products like sports and entertainment goods and cosmetics grew by 9.0% and 8.8% respectively [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes: 1. Rise of domestic brands and global brand expansion, recommending companies like Pop Mart, Shangmei, and Anta Sports [10]. 2. Technology consumption empowered by AI, recommending companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [10]. 3. Emotional consumption, recommending companies like Gu Ming and Yum China [10]. 4. Undervalued high-dividend blue-chip leaders, recommending companies like Li Ning and Shenzhou International [10]. Company-Specific Insights - For Smoore International (6969 HK), the report forecasts a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for Q1-3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, and maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 27.00 HKD [48]. - For Juzhibio (2367 HK), the report highlights the approval of a new collagen product, projecting significant sales potential and maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of 85.00 HKD [49]. - For Pop Mart (9992 HK), the report notes a revenue increase of 245-250% in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets, maintaining a "Buy" rating with an updated target price of 410 HKD [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6][12]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is expected to recover in 2026, driven by the continuation of national subsidies and stabilization of exports, suggesting a positive outlook for leading white goods companies [1][12][18]. - December retail performance for home appliances showed signs of bottoming out, with significant declines in major appliances but a relatively stable performance in small appliances [1][19]. - The report highlights the resilience of leading companies in the home appliance sector, with a focus on white goods, which are expected to maintain steady growth despite high base effects [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Hisense Visual for black goods; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs for small appliances [4][12][13]. 2. December Retail Performance - In December, the retail sales of major appliances saw declines exceeding 20%, while small appliances showed slightly better demand, with air fryers experiencing growth [1][19]. - The offline sales channels for major appliances faced declines of over 40%, while kitchen small appliances remained relatively stable [1][19]. 3. Export Performance - In December, China's home appliance exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with air conditioners facing a significant decline of 20.7% [2][37]. - Other categories like refrigerators and washing machines showed modest growth, indicating a mixed performance across different product lines [2][37]. 4. U.S. Market Insights - U.S. retail sales for home appliances showed a slight increase of 0.8% in November, indicating a gradual return to stable growth despite challenges such as tariffs and inflation [3][43]. - The inventory levels in U.S. appliance stores are returning to normal, suggesting improved market conditions [3][43]. 5. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating expected EPS growth for Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Haier Smart Home, among others, with all rated as "Outperform the Market" [5][76].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" spring campaign has successfully boosted sales and showcased the evolution of Guangdong's manufacturing, emphasizing the importance of adapting to new market demands and technological advancements [2][3][7]. Group 1: Campaign Overview - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" spring campaign features nearly 30 key events, engaging over 10 major commercial platforms and more than 6,000 enterprises, highlighting Guangdong's strengths in various sectors including smart home appliances and high-end mobile phones [2][11]. - On January 15, the campaign's launch event in Foshan saw participating companies achieve a sales increase of 110% compared to the previous day, with some products experiencing sales growth exceeding 200% [2][3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - During the campaign, companies like Mofei Technology reported a fivefold increase in sales for certain products, with their seasoning machine sales up by 159% compared to the previous day [4][6]. - The event demonstrated significant online sales, with one company reporting over 100,000 yuan in sales within just three hours of live streaming [3][6]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Market Adaptation - Guangdong's products have evolved from being perceived as merely functional to embodying advanced technology and design, with a focus on meeting specific consumer needs through innovative solutions [7][8]. - The integration of new materials and technologies has allowed Guangdong manufacturers to create products that cater to specific scenarios, leading to impressive sales figures during the campaign [6][9]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Guangdong Manufacturing - The success of the campaign reflects a broader trend of Guangdong's manufacturing sector transitioning from a focus on production to creating value through innovation and brand enhancement [8][10]. - The campaign is part of a larger strategy to expand Guangdong's market reach, including plans for numerous promotional activities across various sectors such as agriculture and tourism [11].

Group 1 - Midea Group executed a block trade on January 19, with a volume of 31,400 shares and a transaction amount of 2.4398 million yuan, at a price of 77.70 yuan, which is a 0.10% premium over the closing price of the day [1] - In the last three months, Midea Group has had a total of 7 block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 35.3894 million yuan [2] - The closing price of Midea Group on the day of the report was 77.62 yuan, reflecting a 0.40% increase, with a daily turnover rate of 0.49% and a total transaction amount of 2.609 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Midea Group is 5.417 billion yuan, which has increased by 211 million yuan over the last five days, representing a growth of 4.06% [3] - One institution has provided a rating for Midea Group in the last five days, with Huachuang Securities setting the highest target price at 93.40 yuan as of January 19 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6][12] Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to recover in 2026, driven by the continuation of national subsidies and improvements in export performance. It is recommended to actively invest in leading white goods companies [1][12][18] - December retail performance for home appliances showed signs of bottoming out, with major appliances experiencing a decline of over 20% in domestic retail sales, while small appliances showed slightly better demand [1][19] - The report highlights that the U.S. home appliance retail sales saw a slight increase in November, indicating a gradual return to stable growth despite challenges such as tariffs and inflation [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Core Recommendations - Key recommendations include investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances. For small appliances, Stone Technology and Bear Electric are recommended [4][12][13] 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - December retail performance for home appliances continued to face pressure due to high base effects, with significant declines in major appliances. However, small appliances showed relative stability, particularly in air fryers [1][19] - December exports of home appliances decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with air conditioners facing the most significant pressure, while refrigerators and washing machines showed modest growth [2][37] - U.S. home appliance retail sales increased by 0.8% year-on-year in November, with inventory levels returning to normal [3][12] 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.23% this week compared to the broader market [49] - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum decreased by 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices also saw a decline [51] - Shipping indices for routes to the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and Europe showed slight increases, indicating a stabilization in shipping costs [64] 4. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - Notable company announcements include Midea Group's ongoing efforts in overseas markets and Gree Electric's dividend distribution plans [71][72] - The report discusses the structural adjustments in the air conditioning export market and the anticipated trends for 2026, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the global supply chain [74]

Core Viewpoint - The white goods sector experienced a slight increase of 0.55% on January 19, with Xueqi Electric leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.09% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of Xueqi Electric was 14.99, reflecting a rise of 3.52% with a trading volume of 69,200 shares and a transaction value of 103 million yuan [1] - Aokema closed at 8.06, up by 2.68%, with a trading volume of 151,800 shares [1] - TCL Smart Home's closing price was 10.17, increasing by 1.70% with a trading volume of 126,300 shares [1] - Whirlpool closed at 10.59, up by 1.34%, with a transaction value of approximately 64.76 million yuan [1] - Haier Smart Home's closing price was 25.94, reflecting a 0.93% increase with a trading volume of 383,500 shares [1] - Gree Electric's closing price was 40.53, up by 0.45%, with a transaction value of approximately 1.68 billion yuan [1] - Midea Group closed at 77.62, increasing by 0.40%, with a transaction value of approximately 2.61 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - The white goods sector saw a net inflow of 307 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 211 million yuan [1] - The net outflow from speculative funds was 518 million yuan [1] - Midea Group had a net inflow of 149 million yuan from institutional investors, while it experienced a net outflow of 372 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Gree Electric saw a net inflow of 121 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 117 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Haier Smart Home had a net inflow of approximately 67.83 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 16.48 million yuan from speculative funds [2]

Group 1 - On January 19, Midea Group executed a block trade of 31,400 shares, with a transaction value of 2.4398 million yuan, accounting for 0.09% of the total transaction volume for the day [1] - The transaction price was 77.70 yuan, which represents a premium of 0.1% compared to the market closing price of 77.62 yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights Midea Group's commitment to shareholder returns through multiple share buybacks in 2025 and 2026, indicating a strong focus on enhancing shareholder value [1] - In 2026, Midea Group repurchased approximately 2 million yuan worth of 2.613 million A-shares at an average price of 76.5 yuan per share, representing about 0.038% of the total shares [1] - The total amount for Midea's two share buybacks in 2025 ranged from 6.5 billion to 13 billion yuan, with 70% of the 5-10 billion yuan allocated for cancellation and reduction of registered capital, and 1.5-3 billion yuan for employee stock ownership plans [1] Group 2 - Midea Group's operational performance remains stable, and short-term disruptions do not alter its long-term value, suggesting potential for further market capitalization expansion driven by cash flow [1] - The company is expected to leverage global resources for diversified growth opportunities, maintaining a target price of 93.4 yuan based on a DCF valuation method, corresponding to a 15x PE for 2026 [1] - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for Midea Group, reflecting confidence in its financial health and growth prospects [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights favorable real estate policies and Meta's plan to increase smart glasses production to 20 million units by the end of 2026, indicating a strong market demand [2][3]. - Several home appliance companies have released their performance forecasts for 2025, showing a mix of growth and decline in net profits [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that national subsidies are expected to transition smoothly, with leading black and white appliance companies demonstrating stable operations and high dividends, making them cost-effective investments. Recommended companies include: - Midea Group (2025 PE: 13.2X) - Haier Smart Home (2025 PE: 11.4X) - TCL Electronics (2025 PE: 10.8X) - Hisense Visual (2025 PE: 12.0X) [4][5]. - The core driver for smart home appliances is overseas expansion, with recommendations for leading robot vacuum companies: - Roborock (2025 PE: 20.8X) - Ecovacs (2025 PE: 22.7X) [4][5]. - Companies with stable performance and upward potential include: - Ninebot (2025 PE: 19.1X) - Anfu Technology (2025 PE: 53.2X) - Hailong Cold Chain (2025 PE: 15.2X) - Beiding Co. (2025 PE: 31.2X) [4][5]. - Appliance companies are diversifying into new areas, with recommendations for: - Rongtai Health (2025 PE: 21.1X) - Wanlong Magnetic Plastic (2025 PE: 21.9X) [4][5]. Performance Forecasts - Stone Technology expects a net profit of no less than 1.34 billion, a 31% decline year-on-year for 2025. - Beiding Co. anticipates a revenue of 950 million, a 26% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 111 million, up 59.1% year-on-year. - Dechang Co. forecasts a net profit between 160 to 200 million, a decline of 51% to 61% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit forecasted between 145 to 185 million, down 53% to 63% year-on-year [2][4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of practical learning experiences in the field of investment and technology, highlighting the value of direct engagement with leading companies and experts in various industries [2][7][19]. Schedule Overview - The schedule for 2026 includes visits to major tech companies and universities, such as NVIDIA, Tesla, and Stanford University, focusing on cutting-edge technologies and innovations [3][4][5]. - Specific events include closed-door research meetings on AI and technology trends, as well as visits to companies like Huawei, BYD, and others in the robotics and AI sectors [18][19][57]. Company Engagement - The program aims to connect entrepreneurs with top executives and scientists to gain insights into strategic decisions and technological advancements [7][19]. - Participants will explore various sectors, including AI, robotics, and new energy, through hands-on experiences and discussions with industry leaders [19][57]. Learning Philosophy - The initiative promotes a philosophy of "reading extensively and traveling widely," encouraging participants to learn from real-world applications and innovations in technology [2][38]. - The focus is on fostering a mindset of long-term thinking and ethical business practices among entrepreneurs [2][40].