ab 10 January 2026 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Exports challenging, but 'going global' remains a structural opportunity ChinaIOL expects global white goods demand to show steady growth (+1.5% YoY) in 2026, but Chinese AC/WM/fridge exports to be sluggish (-4.0%/+0.2%/-4.3% YoY). We expect exports to Europe/US to remain muted, due to the continued relocation of capacity from China due to US tariffs, but industry leaders could benefit from their global capacities. We see upside in demand from emerging mark ...

风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 沪深300ESGETF（561900）业绩比较基准为沪深300ESG基准指数收益率，管理人为招商基金管理有限 公司，基金经理为房俊一，成立（2021-07-06）以来回报为-0.23%，近一个月回报为3.39%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 1月15日，截止午间收盘，沪深300ESGETF（561900）跌0.30%，报0.995元，成交额68.32万元。沪深 300ESGETF（561900）重仓股方面，贵州茅台截止午盘跌0.47%，宁德时代涨0.01%，招商银行涨 0.37%，中际旭创跌1.07%，长江电力涨0.30%，美的集团涨0.71%，比亚迪跌0.32%，兴业银行跌 0.10%，工商银行涨0.26%，恒瑞医药跌1.37%。 ...

Core Insights - The report reveals that Haier, Midea, and Gree dominate the Chinese urban rail air conditioning market, collectively holding over 76% market share, indicating a significant shift from foreign brands that were once prominent in this sector [1][2]. Market Share and Bidding Data - Haier holds a market share of 28.46%, with a winning bid amount of 29,317.03 million yuan across 29 projects in 11 cities [2] - Midea follows with a 24.80% market share and a bid amount of 25,561.22 million yuan for 21 projects in 11 cities [2] - Gree has a market share of 23.43%, securing 24,139.32 million yuan in bids for 9 projects in 3 cities [2] - Other brands like Guoxiang and York hold smaller shares, with Guoxiang at 8.92% and York at 4.33% [2] Historical Context - Initially, foreign brands dominated the urban rail air conditioning market in China, starting from the first Beijing subway line in 1965, with local brands just beginning to emerge in the 1990s [2][3]. - Haier's breakthrough came in 2005 when it won a bid for the Guangzhou Metro Line 3, marking the end of foreign brand monopoly [3]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese brands have developed unique strategies: Midea focuses on high-efficiency systems and smart controls, while Gree emphasizes the localization of core components [5]. - Other specialized brands like Guoxiang and Shenling have established technical barriers in niche markets, contributing to a multi-layered competitive landscape among Chinese brands [5]. Future Outlook - The competition is shifting from a focus on foreign versus domestic brands to how Chinese brands can innovate in greener and smarter technologies, driving sustainable development in urban rail transportation both in China and globally [5].

近30场重点活动、超10家大型商业平台、约6000余家企业参与……2026年1月15日，"广货行天下"春季 行动在广东佛山顺德潭洲国际会展中心正式启动。 当天，"广货行天下"春季行动家电专场促销活动同步举行，1300多家省内家电企业参与活动，省家电商 会以及美的、格力、格兰仕、海信等30多家企业、行业商协会代表将在现场展示广东家电企业优质产品 并开展直播带货。 开馆前南都记者现场探营，准备工作就绪。 展出的家电产品造型精美。 当天在佛山举办的家电专场促销活动，是本次春季行动的首场重磅活动。 本次专场活动汇聚1300多家省内家电企业，省家电商会以及美的、格力、格兰仕、海信等30多家企业及 行业商协会代表现场展示优质产品并开展直播带货，打响春季促消费"第一枪"。 启动 凝聚多方合力扩内需优供给 打响春季促消费"第一枪" 当前，消费已成为经济增长的主要动力，激活消费市场、畅通产销循环，对稳定经济大盘、促进产业升 级具有关键作用。广东作为制造业大省和消费大省，拥有雄厚的产业基础和丰富的产品资源，如何将供 给优势转化为市场胜势，是推动经济持续回升向好的重要课题。 "广货行天下"春季行动正是在我国加快构建新发展格局、着力 ...

| 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 車日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 002478.SZ | 常宝股份 | 9.99 | 5.31 | 2.69 | | 2 | 603730.SH | 岱美股份 | 5.56 | -0.23 | 3.25 | | 3 | 002833.SZ | 弘亚数控 | 2.69 | 5.07 | 4.18 | | 4 | 600219.SH | 南山铝业 | 2.25 | 9.85 | 6.74 | | 5 | 000338.SZ | 潍柴动力 | 2.05 | 12.73 | 3.70 | | 6 | 603888.5H | 新澳股份 | 1.80 | 13.96 | 3.37 | | 7 | 600551 SH | 时代出版 | 1.62 | 8.25 | 4.62 | | 8 | 002895.SZ | 川恒股份 | 1.49 | 4.09 | 3.67 | | 9 | 600026.SH | 中远海能 | 1.38 | ...

在消费电子领域，OPPO、vivo的海外销售占比均超60%，传音控股深耕海外市场，占比高达90%；在家 电赛道，美的集团（000333）超40%的营收来自海外，格力、TCL的空调、电视行销全球；大疆占据全 球消费级无人机约70%的市场份额；而比亚迪（002594）2025年海外销量约105万辆，同比激增145%， 在多个市场跻身新能源汽车销量前列。此外，2025年我国工业机器人出口增长48.7%，实现净出口，其 中大湾区贡献了全国约三分之一的出口量。 "广货"出海的模式也进化升级，正从过去的OEM/ODM代工与产品出口，加速向自主品牌建设与跨国直 接投资跃升。根据经合组织（OECD）数据，2025年上半年，中国首次超越美国成为全球最大的外国直 接投资来源国。其中，以绿地投资形式建立的海外生产基地成为新特征。 广东企业走在这一潮流前沿。比亚迪在泰国、匈牙利、巴西等国建立整车工厂；美的、格力、OPPO、 vivo等在海外设立生产基地；Shein则在越南、印度、土耳其等地布局供应链，实现"本地化生产、全球 化销售"。这意味着，广东正在从以往承接全球产业转移的"世界车间"，转向输出资本、技术、标准和 品牌的"跨国企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" Spring Action is set to launch on January 15, 2026, in Foshan, aiming to enhance the visibility and market influence of high-quality Guangdong products through government support and participation from major enterprises and platforms [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by multiple provincial departments, including the Provincial Propaganda Department and the Provincial Department of Commerce, to boost online sales of quality products from Guangdong [1]. - Over 6,000 enterprises from various sectors such as home appliances, mobile phones, clothing, food, smart devices, automotive, beauty products, and agriculture will participate [1]. - More than 10 major commercial platforms, including Alibaba International, JD.com, and Douyin, along with numerous offline supermarkets, will support the initiative [1]. Group 2: Promotion Strategy - A selection of key industries and quality brands will be promoted weekly, focusing on high-quality and cost-effective products [2]. - The initiative will connect with retailers, distributors, and buyers to facilitate demand collection and production-sales matching activities [2]. - Local cities will engage leading enterprises and industry clusters to organize promotional activities that integrate products with cultural tourism [2]. Group 3: Specific Activities - The launch event will feature a home appliance promotion with participation from over 1,300 local appliance companies, including major brands like Midea and Gree [2]. - The event will include live streaming sales to showcase high-quality products from Guangdong's appliance sector [2].

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000333 | 美的集团 | 2.51Z | 6.05% | -2.77 Z | -6.67% | 2571.76万 | 0.62% | | 000651 | 格力电器 | 3005.97万 | 1.64% | -1677.75万 | -0.92% | -1328.22万 | -0.73% | | 001387 | 雪祺电气 | 2311.41万 | 15.40% | -85.41万 | -0.57% | -2226.00万 | -14.83% | | 002668 | TCL智家 | 1790.88万 | 10.07% | 459.03万 | 2.58% | -2249.91万 | -12.65% | | 000921 海信家电 | | -144.60万 | -0.46% | 340.90万 | 1.09% | -196.30万 | -0.63% | | 6003 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The industry is at a turning point, with expectations for improved performance in 2026 as domestic demand stabilizes and export orders recover [35] - The report highlights the resilience of leading companies in the white goods sector, with a focus on their ability to navigate through challenging market conditions [7][10] - The overall market dynamics indicate a potential for growth in emerging markets, alongside innovation and product expansion in domestic markets [35] Summary by Sections 1. White Goods - External sales are recovering steadily, while internal sales are expected to remain stable in Q4 2025. Leading companies are well-positioned to benefit from favorable demand and cost environments [7][10] - Q4 2025 internal sales for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines are projected to decline by 31%, 11%, and 6% respectively, due to high base effects from the previous year [10] - External sales for refrigerators and washing machines are expected to show modest growth, with a 3% increase for refrigerators and a 9% increase for washing machines [10] 2. Black Goods - The report indicates that the color TV market is under pressure, with internal sales declining significantly due to high base effects from previous subsidies [15] - External sales remain relatively stable, with a slight decline of 2% expected in Q4 2025 [15][16] - Leading brands are expected to improve their profitability through product innovation and market share gains [15] 3. Cleaning Appliances - External sales continue to grow, while internal sales face challenges due to high base effects from previous subsidies [19] - The report notes a decline in retail sales for floor cleaning machines and washing machines, with internal sales dropping by 25% and 8% respectively [20] - The external market shows strong growth, particularly in Europe and Asia-Pacific, although competition remains intense [21] 4. Small Appliances - Domestic prices are rising, but external demand remains weak, with overall growth in retail sales expected to be between 0-10% [30] - The report highlights structural improvements in pricing and product upgrades, which may support profit margins in the domestic market [30] - External sales are under pressure due to overall weak demand in international markets [30] 5. Post-Cycle - The report indicates a downturn in demand for major kitchen appliances, with significant declines in retail sales across various categories [33] - The real estate market remains sluggish, impacting demand for kitchen appliances, and the report anticipates continued pressure on sales [33] - The upcoming subsidy policies are expected to have limited coverage, which may further affect market dynamics [33] 6. Industry Views and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the home appliance sector is poised for recovery in 2026, with expectations for improved fundamentals and potential surprises in export performance [35] - Recommended stocks include leading white goods manufacturers such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as TV manufacturers like Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics [35]

13 January 2026 | 6:06PM CST Equity Research CHINA CONSUMER DURABLES 2026 Outlook: Trade-in to lend domestic support, growth driven by overseas expansion; Buy Midea, Roborock up to Buy Into 2026, we continue to forecast weaker growth in domestic market while more resilient demand in the overseas market. That said, our key differences with market views lie in: 1) -1% consumer appliances growth vs likely more conservative market expectation. Our forecast is underpinned by Rmb75bn trade-in subsidy assumption i ...