FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 濰柴動力股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02338 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,943,040,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 1,943,040,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,943,040,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 1,943,040,000 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338)(02338) has seen its stock price increase by over 5%, currently trading at 16.84 HKD with a transaction volume of 248 million HKD, following the announcement of its Q1-Q3 2025 performance, which shows significant growth in revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Weichai Power reported revenue of approximately 170.57 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.32% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 8.88 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.67% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 57.4 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 3.23 billion CNY, which is a year-on-year increase of 29.5% [1] Market Drivers - CITIC Securities attributes the unexpected growth in Q3 to a recovery in the sales of the engine business, including high-value gas engine sales, alongside improved performance from Kion and breakthroughs in emerging businesses such as large-bore engines [1] - Southwest Securities highlights the rapid growth of Weichai Power's M-series large-bore engine business, driven by the expanding demand from data centers, with over 7,700 units sold in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30% [1] - The data center market has shown particularly strong performance, with sales exceeding 900 units, which is more than a threefold increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to the company's overall performance [1]

Weichai Power (000338.SZ) Conference Call Summary Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Weichai Power - **Industry**: Engine manufacturing, specifically focusing on heavy-duty trucks (HDT), large-bore engines, and e-powertrain solutions Key Takeaways 1. **HDT Engine Volume Expectations**: Weichai anticipates an increase in HDT engine volume into 2026, with solid momentum expected in Q4 2025 [1][7] 2. **E-Powertrain Capacity**: The e-powertrain business is operating at full capacity in Q4 2025, indicating a rapid ramp-up in production [1][9] 3. **KION Efficiency Program Impact**: The negative impact from one-off expenses related to KION's efficiency program is expected to be lower than previously guided [1][6] 4. **Data Center Engine Sales**: Management expects sales volume of large-bore engines for data centers to exceed the upper end of the previously guided range, with overseas markets seeing both an increase in average selling price (ASP) and a strong order backlog, particularly in North America [1][10] 5. **SOFC Positioning**: Weichai is well-positioned in the solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) market, which is gaining traction as an alternative power solution in data centers [1][12][14] Financial Performance 1. **Sales Volume Decline**: Overall engine sales volume saw a low single-digit percentage decline year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to softness in LNG engines [6] 2. **Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Decline**: GPM declined by 0.7 percentage points year-over-year in Q3 2025, attributed mainly to promotional activities for LNG engines, although the impact was mitigated by cost optimization [6] 3. **Sales Volume Targets**: For 2025, management reiterated a target of over 10,000 units for large-bore engines, with expectations for data center engines to exceed 1,200 units [10] 4. **Future Growth Projections**: For 2026, management expects large-bore engine sales volume to increase to 12,000-13,000 units, representing a year-over-year growth of 20%-30% [10] Market Dynamics 1. **HDT Market Concerns**: Management addressed concerns regarding potential contraction in the HDT engine market due to electrification, suggesting that a 30% penetration rate for eHDT may be a ceiling without stronger incentives [11] 2. **Customer Base Expansion**: Weichai is actively expanding its customer base to include more domestic large HDT OEMs, stabilizing its wallet share among key customers [6] Additional Insights 1. **ASP Trends**: The ASP for domestic sales remains stable, while overseas sales ASP has increased by 20% year-over-year due to upsizing trends [10] 2. **Long-term Contracts**: Weichai has signed long-term sales agreements with multiple North American customers, with contract sizes reaching tens of billions, to be delivered over five years [10][14] Conclusion - Weichai Power is positioned for growth in both traditional and emerging markets, with a strong focus on data center applications and e-powertrain solutions. The company maintains a positive outlook for sales volume and market share despite challenges in the HDT segment due to electrification trends. The management's proactive strategies in customer expansion and product development are expected to drive future performance.

Core Insights - The article highlights the top-performing stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index, showcasing significant price increases and dividend yields for various companies [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The top stock, 健盛集团 (Jiansheng Group), experienced a daily increase of 6.42% and a year-to-date increase of 19.34%, with a dividend yield of 4.65% [1]. - 江苏国泰 (Jiangsu Guotai) follows closely with a daily increase of 6.26% and a year-to-date increase of 32.93%, offering a dividend yield of 4.28% [1]. - Other notable performers include 岱美股份 (Daimai Co.) with a daily increase of 5.10% and a year-to-date increase of 15.36%, and 新澳股份 (Xinao Co.) with a daily increase of 4.17% and a year-to-date increase of 20.00% [1]. Group 2: Dividend Yields - The article lists several companies with attractive dividend yields, such as 森马服饰 (Semir Fashion) at 9.24%, 长沙银行 (Changsha Bank) at 6.48%, and 家非业 (Jiafei Industry) at 7.69% [1]. - The dividend yields for other companies in the top 20 range from 2.08% to 5.12%, indicating a generally favorable income potential for investors [1]. Group 3: Year-to-Date Performance - The year-to-date performance of the listed stocks varies significantly, with some companies like 水星家纺 (Mercury Home Textiles) showing a remarkable increase of 40.30%, while others like 科思股份 (Kesi Co.) have seen a decline of 23.81% [1]. - Overall, the data reflects a mixed performance landscape, with certain stocks demonstrating resilience and growth potential in the current market environment [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited significant structural differentiation last week, with the Every Day Brand 100 Index declining by 1.48% to close at 1204.11 points, influenced by a pullback in technology stocks and pressure from the Hong Kong market [2] - Despite this, the market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend due to supportive policies and liquidity easing [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.5%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 3.19% [2] Company Performance - Weichai Power reported strong performance, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in revenue to 170.57 billion yuan and a 5.7% rise in net profit to 8.88 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [5] - In Q3 alone, Weichai Power achieved a revenue of 57.42 billion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.23 billion yuan, marking a 29.5% increase, both being the best results for the same period historically [5] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging business breakthroughs while consolidating its traditional advantages, leading to improved profitability and a collaborative development model [5][6] Industry Insights - Weichai Power is a leading manufacturer of large-bore diesel engines, with significant investments in R&D and market expansion, making its products globally competitive [6] - The demand for large-bore diesel engines is increasing, particularly as they serve as important backup power sources for AI data centers, which are rapidly developing due to ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [6] - The M-series large-bore engines saw sales exceed 5,000 units in the first half of the year, a 41% increase year-on-year, with data center market sales approaching 600 units, reflecting a nearly fivefold increase [6] - The company anticipates continued high growth in this business segment, with substantial year-on-year increases in revenue and profit contributions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a solid operational foundation and potential for future growth [3][10]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 57.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29.5% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.3% [3]. - The non-recurring net profit was 2.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1% [3][8]. Engine Sales - The company sold approximately 174,000 engines in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4]. - Heavy-duty truck engines accounted for 63,000 units sold, up 5% year-on-year, while natural gas engines showed remarkable performance with a 32% increase in sales [4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.4%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The total expense ratio for sales, management, and research was 13.5%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [5]. Subsidiary Performance - Kion Group's revenue in Q3 2025 was 2.704 billion euros (approximately 22.3 billion yuan), showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [7]. - The net profit for Kion Group was 119 million euros (approximately 457 million yuan), reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 61.3% [7]. Credit Provision and Asset Management - The company reversed credit impairment provisions amounting to 383 million yuan in Q3 2025, primarily due to the recovery of certain receivables [9]. - Asset impairment losses were recorded at 130 million yuan [9]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 12.3 billion, 14.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan, respectively, due to anticipated impacts from layoffs and industry competition [10]. - The corresponding EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.41, 1.62, and 1.78 yuan, with PE ratios of 10.23, 8.93, and 8.12 times, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the automotive sector, anticipating a recovery in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced moderate growth in Q3, with weak performance from car manufacturers and overall mild growth in automotive parts. The report highlights potential catalysts for recovery in 2025, including better-than-expected retail sales post-Spring Festival, improved export performance, and favorable policies [1][5]. Data Tracking - In late October, the discount rate for vehicles increased by 9.6%, with a slight month-on-month rise of 0.1 percentage points. The average discount amount was 21,782 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 398 yuan [3][4]. - The report tracks various automotive raw material prices, noting significant changes in lithium carbonate, aluminum, copper, palladium, and rhodium prices [6][28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 0.69%, ranking 15th out of 29 sectors. The report details the performance of various indices, with the automotive parts sector rising by 1.13% and commercial vehicles by 4.41% [8][31]. Industry News - Key developments include the call for a phased exit of vehicle purchase tax reductions, the cessation of vehicle replacement subsidies in Shenzhen, and the launch of new models by various manufacturers [29][30].

Core Points - The article discusses the upcoming 2025 Solid-State Battery Industry Annual Conference and the Solid-State Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony, scheduled for November 8, 2025, in Guangzhou, focusing on new technologies and ecosystem building [4][5][6]. Event Overview - The event will feature over 1000 participants and will be held at the Guangzhou Nansha International Convention Center [5][6]. - The main theme of the conference is "Focusing on New Technologies, Building a New Ecosystem" [5]. Key Activities - The agenda includes a series of speeches and discussions from industry leaders, including the release of a global solid-state battery industry development white paper [7][8]. - Notable topics include advancements in solid-state battery technology, challenges in material development, and innovations in manufacturing processes [8][10][11]. Participating Companies - Major sponsors and exhibitors include companies such as Ru Tian Technology, Jin Na Technology, and others involved in the solid-state battery sector [4][5]. - The event will also host various forums and exhibitions related to solid-state and sodium battery technologies [5][6]. Registration and Participation - Registration fees for attendees are set at 1688 RMB per person, which includes access to the conference, lunch, and the award ceremony [22]. - Various sponsorship and exhibition options are available, with prices ranging from 15,000 RMB for a standard booth to 48,000 RMB for a larger custom space [22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Weichai Power is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Weichai Power's Q3 performance is impressive, benefiting from the recovery in the heavy truck industry [1] - The company's engine sales remain stable, with notable performance in natural gas heavy truck engines [1] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027 due to the impact of layoffs at Kion and industry competition, while maintaining a positive outlook on the company's valuation and market position [1] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, Weichai Power achieved total revenue of 57.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3% [1] - Engine sales in Q3 2025 reached approximately 174,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with heavy truck engines accounting for 63,000 units, up 5% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.4%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report projects total revenue for 2025 to be 228.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.41 yuan [1][8]

Summary of Weichai Power (000338.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Weichai Power** is the largest manufacturer of internal combustion engines in China, holding approximately **18%** market share in the diesel engine segment. The company operates in several key verticals including commercial vehicles (mainly heavy-duty trucks), construction machinery, agricultural equipment, marine, and power generation [6][7]. Financial Performance - Following the **3Q25 results**, Weichai Power's **2025E-27E EPS estimates** have been raised by **4-5%** due to better-than-expected profitability [1][5]. - The updated **12-month target price** is set at **HK$21.00/Rmb20.3** for Weichai's H/A shares, reflecting a potential upside of **35.7%** for A-shares and **30.8%** for H-shares [11][8]. Revenue and Profit Estimates - The revenue estimates for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are **Rmb227,748 million**, **Rmb248,893 million**, and **Rmb266,214 million**, respectively [5]. - Net profit estimates for the same years are **Rmb12,047 million**, **Rmb14,453 million**, and **Rmb16,430 million** [5]. Investment Thesis - The investment thesis is based on a positive cyclical outlook for heavy-duty trucks as supply and demand rebalance, alongside stronger profitability from a more profitable engine portfolio [7]. - Weichai's exposure to European capital expenditure through KION is expected to shift from headwinds to tailwinds, enhancing long-term earnings prospects [7]. - The company is projected to have a robust free cash flow profile, which, combined with a strong net cash position, should improve shareholder returns [7]. Risks - Key risks include: 1. Slower-than-expected macroeconomic activity, particularly in road freight, infrastructure, and property [9]. 2. Weaker-than-expected global economic growth [10]. 3. Shift towards higher electrification in powertrains, impacting internal combustion engine market size [10]. 4. Weaker performance in the heavy-duty truck engine market share [10]. 5. Slower development in the large-bore engine business [10]. Valuation Methodology - Weichai's H-share is valued at **11.5x 2026E EPS**, aligning with its long-term mid-cycle average of **11x**. This reflects improving earnings prospects and a promising outlook for KION, balanced against the long-term impact of truck electrification [8]. Conclusion - Weichai Power is positioned for growth with a strong market presence and diversified business portfolio. The raised earnings estimates and target price indicate a favorable investment opportunity, despite the outlined risks. The company is rated as a **Buy** for both A- and H-shares [1][7].