春糖会期间，渠道反馈显示行业基本面呈现"底部企稳"特征。一方面，飞天茅台批价稳定在2200元 以上，五粮液（000858）、国窖1573等高端单品价格持平，核心大单品的价格韧性为行业盈利预期提供 了锚点。另一方面，终端动销呈现区域分化，五一宴席订单恢复带动局部市场回暖，但整体需求尚未形 成系统性复苏趋势，库存周期仍处于3个月左右的常态水平。 白酒行业观察：春糖反馈企稳分化，珍酒李渡控价 承压；洋河新品迭代升级 第112届全国春季糖酒会的落幕为白酒行业提供了阶段性观察窗口。尽管春节后淡季尚未迎来明显 复苏，但渠道情绪逐步企稳，飞天茅台批价稳定成为市场信心的重要支撑。行业分化加剧，头部酒企集 中度进一步提升，而部分二线品牌则在调整期中面临挑战。 春糖反馈：渠道企稳与新品迭代 从行业数据看，2024年规上白酒企业产量同比下降1.8%，但销售收入与利润分别增长5.3%和 7.76%，印证"量缩价升"的集中化逻辑。头部酒企通过控货保价、渠道优化持续挤压中小品牌，行业调 整期仍将延续。 品牌分化：珍酒李渡高端承压，回款进度滞后 近期财报进一步凸显品牌分化。珍酒李渡2024年营收微增0.5%，但核心品牌"珍酒"销量连续四年 ...

Group 1 - The compound seasoning industry is expected to reach a revenue of 134.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2019 to 2024 [16][21][29] - The hot pot base market is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in the next five years, with a market size of approximately 600 billion CNY [33][35] - The Chinese compound seasoning sector is still in its growth phase, with significant opportunities for new product development, particularly in categories like sauerkraut fish and crayfish seasoning [41][43] Group 2 - In February, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 2.2 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor showing strong performance [12][20] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at the 12th percentile and the price-to-book (PB) ratio at the 23rd percentile since 2010 [12][24] - The net inflow of southbound funds in February reached 152.8 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in stocks like Qingdao Beer and COFCO Joycome [12][14] Group 3 - The liquor market is experiencing a recovery, with companies controlling inventory and maintaining prices, as seen with the price of Moutai at 2,210 CNY per bottle [17][32] - The sales of consumer goods improved in February, particularly in beer, dairy products, and frozen foods, while raw material prices showed mixed trends [18][19] - The overall retail sales in January and February 2025 are expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [28][31] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include key players in the liquor sector such as Luzhou Laojiao, Jinshiyuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as consumer goods companies like Yanjing Beer and Tianwei Foods [10][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for new product launches in the compound seasoning market, driven by changing consumer preferences and the expansion of retail channels like Sam's Club [41][43] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, further supporting the growth of the food and beverage sector [29][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent local fertility policies have effectively boosted consumer confidence, particularly benefiting the liquor and dairy sectors [4][5]. - The liquor sector is currently at a low valuation, presenting a high margin of safety, and is expected to benefit directly from the recovery in consumption and increased consumer spending [4]. - The dairy sector is experiencing significant growth due to new child-rearing subsidies, which are expected to lower the cost of childbirth and increase birth rates, thus driving demand for dairy products [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a monthly performance increase of 9.0%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 1.7% over the same period [2]. Investment Views - In the liquor sector, companies such as Shui Jing Fang, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiu Gui Jiu are recommended based on their valuation advantages. Long-term recommendations include Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [4]. - The dairy sector has seen a significant rise, with companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, and others being highlighted for their growth potential [5]. Key Company Feedback - Luzhou Laojiao's stock price is at 143.61, with an EPS forecast of 9.00 for 2023 and a PE ratio of 15.96, rated as "Buy" [10]. - Gujing Gongjiu is also rated as "Buy," with a stock price of 193.54 and an EPS forecast of 8.68 for 2023 [10]. Industry Data Trends - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of 756.3 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [54]. - The cumulative production of liquor in 2024 reached 4.145 million tons, showing a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year [53]. - The seasoning industry has seen its market size grow from 259.5 billion in 2014 to 592.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6% [56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 217.97 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][16]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company is experiencing a significant increase in market share within the province, supported by strong channel advantages. The performance outlook is positive due to the strengthening of market share and channel push [3][19]. - The white liquor industry is currently in its third growth phase, transitioning from a price bubble phase to a focus on volume. This shift indicates a weakening growth potential for the sector, but leading companies can still achieve performance certainty through increased market concentration [18][19]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 20,254 million CNY in 2023 to 27,444 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.3% [16]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 4,589 million CNY in 2023 to 7,088 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of about 13.1% [16]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.66 CNY, 12.06 CNY, and 13.41 CNY, respectively [16][18]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is effectively leveraging its strong channel push to enhance its market share in mid-tier price segments, with notable growth in established markets like Hefei [19]. - The report highlights that the company’s core advantage lies in its channel efficiency, with strong cooperation from distributors and a sustained market share increase in mature markets [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically highlighting the potential in the liquor sector due to the ongoing digital transformation [1]. Core Insights - The report outlines the evolution of online liquor sales in China, indicating a significant growth trajectory with a 56.4% year-on-year increase in online liquor sales, reaching over 120 billion yuan in 2023 [3][23]. - The shift towards online sales is driven by several factors, including the pressure on traditional sales channels, the influence of substantial subsidies from e-commerce platforms, and the preferences of younger consumer demographics [3][34]. - The report anticipates a long-term trend towards the standardization of online liquor sales, with the potential rise of professional operational agencies to assist liquor manufacturers in navigating the digital landscape [3][44]. Summary by Sections Review of Online Liquor Development - The report identifies four key phases in the development of online liquor sales from 2000 to the present, highlighting the gradual maturation of the e-commerce landscape and the increasing integration of liquor brands into online platforms [3][4]. Reasons for Growth - The report attributes the growth of online liquor sales to the maturity of logistics and payment systems, the normalization of e-commerce subsidies, and the changing preferences of younger consumers who are more inclined to shop online [3][34][37]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the online penetration rate for liquor is currently at 12%, indicating substantial room for growth compared to the overall consumer goods market, which has a penetration rate of approximately 30% [3][44]. - It also notes that the rise of high-potential channels like Douyin (TikTok) presents significant opportunities for further expansion in online liquor sales [3][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, mid-range brands like Shanxi Fenjiu, and local brands positioned in expanding price segments [3][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector has decreased, while the overweight ratio has slightly increased. As of Q4 2024, the total market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector is 309.25 billion, down by 41.40 billion from the previous quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 4.56%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [1][12][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a significant decline in heavy holding ratios, while the majority of the consumer goods sector has increased. The heavy holding ratio for the white liquor sector is 3.95%, down by 0.65 percentage points, while other sub-sectors like beverage and dairy have shown increases [1][15][17] Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratios - In Q4 2024, the food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio ranks third among 31 primary industries, below the five-year average of 7.27%, indicating potential for growth [1][12] - The heavy holding market value in the food and beverage sector accounts for 11.73% of the total heavy holdings, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points [14] Sub-sector Performance - The white liquor sector's heavy holding ratio has decreased significantly, while the majority of consumer goods sub-sectors have increased. The beverage and dairy sub-sector's heavy holding ratio rose to 0.28%, while non-white liquor and snack food sectors also saw slight increases [15][17][18] - The heavy holding ratio for the food processing sub-sector has continued to decline, now at 1.30%, the lowest among all sub-sectors [18] Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by white liquor stocks, with seven out of ten positions held by white liquor companies. The overall heavy holding ratio for these top ten stocks is 4.22%, down by 0.44 percentage points [2][28] - The leading companies in heavy holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio at 2.05% [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Despite the overall weak recovery in consumption, it is anticipated that policies to boost consumption will be strengthened in 2025, presenting opportunities in the food and beverage sector. Key areas to focus on include: - White liquor: Expecting demand recovery to alleviate inventory pressure, particularly in mid-range and mass-market segments [3] - Beer: Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with a recovery in demand for mid-to-high-end beers [3] - Seasoning products: Continued cost advantages and health-oriented demand are seen as growth drivers [3] - Dairy products: Approaching a cost inflection point, with price wars expected to ease [3]

近日，公司董事会收到张彬先生的通知，张彬先生已按照相关规 定参加了深圳证券交易所举办的上市公司独立董事任前培训（线上）， 并取得由深圳证券交易所创业企业培训中心颁发的《上市公司独立董 事培训证明》。 关于独立董事取得独立董事资格证书的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证本公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年1月 15日召开2025年第一次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于补选公司独 立董事的议案》，选举张彬先生为公司独立董事，任期自该次股东大 会审议通过之日起至本届董事会届满。 截至公司2025年第一次临时股东大会通知发出之日，张彬先生尚 未取得独立董事资格证书。根据深圳证券交易所的相关规定，张彬先 生已书面承诺参加最近一次独立董事培训并取得深圳证券交易所认 可的独立董事资格证书。 证券代码：000596、200596 证券简称：古井贡酒、古井贡B 公告编号：2025-004 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司 特此公告。 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司 董 事 会 二〇二五年二月八日 ...

证券代码：000596、200596 证券简称：古井贡酒、古井贡 B 公告编号：2025-003 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司 2024年中期权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证本公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、股东大会审议通过利润分配方案的情况 1.安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2024年中期权 益分派方案已获2025年1月15日召开的2025年第一次临时股东大会审 议通过，具体分配方案为：以公司现有总股本528,600,000股（其中A 股总股本408,600,000股，B股总股本120,000,000股）为基数，向全体 股东每10股派现金10.00元（含税），共计分配现金股利人民币 528,600,000元，不送红股，不以公积金转增股本； 2.公司自分配方案披露日至本次实施期间，公司股本总额未发生 变化。若在分配方案实施前公司总股本由于股份回购、再融资新增股 份上市等原因而发生变化的，按照分配总额不变的原则对分配比例进 行调整； 3.本次实施的分配方案与股东大会审议通过的分配方案一致； 4.本次实施分配方案距离股东大会审议通过的时间未超过两个 月。 ...

证券代码：000596、200596 证券简称：古井贡酒、古井贡 B 公告编号：2025-002 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司 第十届董事会第九次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证本公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十届董事会 第九次会议于 2025 年 1 月 15 下午以通讯表决方式召开。本次会议的 召开符合《公司法》和《公司章程》等有关规定，会议形成的决议合 法、有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 1.审议并通过《关于调整公司董事会专门委员会委员的议案》 因董事会成员变动，公司对董事会战略与 ESG 委员会、董事会 提名委员会、董事会薪酬与考核委员会与董事会审计委员会委员进行 相应调整。 调整后：梁金辉（召集人）、徐志豪、李静、张彬、周庆伍。 （3）董事会薪酬与考核委员会 调整前：徐志豪（召集人）、王瑞华、李静、周庆伍、闫立军。 调整后：徐志豪（召集人）、李静、张彬、周庆伍、闫立军。 1 （4）董事审计委员会 调整前：王瑞华（召集人）、徐志豪、李静、李培辉、叶长青。 调整后：李静（召集人）、徐志豪、张彬、 ...