Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is expected to undergo a revaluation due to anti-involution measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift could enhance the cash flow and dividend yield of Chinese chemical companies, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to profit-generating ones [6][29] - The demand for chromium salts is anticipated to rise significantly due to increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines in Europe and the US, leading to a projected shortfall of 250,000 tons by 2028, which is about 23% of the total annual production [6] - The report highlights four key investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improving industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 51.0% over the past 12 months, compared to 42.5% for the CSI 300 index [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for low-cost expansion in major companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, alongside sectors like tires and fertilizers [7] - It also points out the improving conditions in various segments, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and agricultural chemicals [8] Key Products Analysis - Recent price increases were noted for acrylic acid and esters, with butyl acrylate priced at 7,600 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3.40% increase [10] - The report also mentions the price of polymer MDI in East China at 15,550 RMB/ton, up by 1.97% [10] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly analysis of the large refining and chemical industry, highlighting that the cost - end support is weak, and filament prices are under pressure. It provides detailed data on various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **6 Major Private Refining Companies' Performance** - **Stock Price Changes**: As of September 12, 2025, the stock prices of private refining companies showed different trends. For example, New Fengming had a weekly increase of 7.1%, while Hengli Petrochemical had a weekly decrease of 1.4% [9]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The report provides the net profit forecasts of these companies from 2024 to 2027. For instance, the expected net profit of Rongsheng Petrochemical in 2025 is 2.616 billion yuan [9]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads** - **International Crude Oil**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week was 66.5 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel (-1.8%) compared to last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%. The average price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/barrel (-2.4%) compared to last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [9]. - **Refining Spreads**: The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,579.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 96.5 yuan/ton (+3.9%); the spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,197.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 62.6 yuan/ton (+5.5%) [9]. - **Polyester Sector** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY this week were 6,789.3 yuan/ton, 7,078.6 yuan/ton, and 8,021.4 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 82.1 yuan/ton, 67.9 yuan/ton, and 28.6 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits of POY, FDY, and DTY were 107.8 yuan/ton, 34.3 yuan/ton, and 62.8 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 4.5 yuan/ton, +5.0 yuan/ton, and +31.0 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY were 19.3 days, 27.6 days, and 31.1 days respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.9 days, 1.2 days, and 1.4 days. The operating rate of filament was 91.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 pct [10]. - **Refining Sector** - **Domestic Refined Oil**: This week, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel decreased [3]. - **US Refined Oil**: This week, the prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel decreased [3]. - **Chemical Sector** - **PX**: The average price of PX this week was 835.6 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.0 dollars/ton. The spread between PX and crude oil was 350.3 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.7 dollars/ton. The operating rate of PX was 85.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 pct [3]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends** - **Market Performance of Six Private Big Refining Companies**: The report presents the market performance trends of six private big refining companies from 2020 to 2025, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc. [16][17] - **Refining Spreads and Oil Prices**: It shows the historical trends of domestic and foreign big refining project spreads and Brent oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [20][22] - **Polyester Sector** - **Raw Material and Product Prices**: It presents the price trends of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., as well as the price and profit trends of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [24][26][38] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: It shows the operating rate trends of PX, PTA, MEG, filament, and polyester staple fiber from 2020 to 2025, as well as the inventory trends of PTA, filament, and polyester staple fiber [33][56][76] - **Sales and Production Rates**: It presents the sales and production rate trends of filament and polyester staple fiber in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region from 2020 to 2025 [49][72] - **Refining Sector** - **Domestic Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [85][94] - **US Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [99][107] - **European Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of European gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [112][121] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [126][134] - **Chemical Sector** - **Chemical Product Prices**: It shows the price trends of various chemical products such as polyethylene LLDPE, homopolymerized polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [140][148]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.82% on September 12, with Bohui Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Maoyang Xinchang (Code: 000819) with a closing price of 17.50, up 3.18% [1] - Compton (Code: 603798) with a closing price of 16.36, up 2.63% [1] - Shanghai Petrochemical (Code: 600688) with a closing price of 2.80, up 1.08% [1] - Major decliners included: - Bohui Co. (Code: 300839) with a closing price of 14.78, down 2.76% [2] - Hengli Petrochemical (Code: 600346) with a closing price of 17.06, down 1.33% [2] - Hengyi Petrochemical (Code: 000703) with a closing price of 6.66, down 1.19% [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 421 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 198 million yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow indicated that: - Main funds showed a net outflow from several stocks, including Maoyang Xinchang and Hengyi Petrochemical [3] - Retail investors contributed positively to stocks like Compton and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3]

Core Viewpoint - The leading private refining companies in China, including Hengli Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to industry cyclicality, narrowing product price spreads, and intense competition [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - All four companies reported a decline in operating income, with a combined net profit of approximately 4.27 billion yuan, down nearly 40% year-on-year [2]. - Hengli Petrochemical led with a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, a decrease of over 24% year-on-year [2]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical reported net profits of 602 million yuan, 386 million yuan, and 227 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -29.82%, +21.24%, and -47.32% [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry is experiencing a "involution" competition, leading to increased production and sales without corresponding profit increases, resulting in declining profit margins since 2021 [3]. - Major products from the four companies saw over half of their revenues decline in the first half of the year, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's revenue from refining and PTA products decreasing by 12.4% and 39.6%, respectively [3]. - Hengyi Petrochemical and Dongfang Shenghong also experienced around 20% year-on-year declines in refining product revenues [3]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Dongfang Shenghong benefited from the rapid development of the global photovoltaic industry, achieving profit growth through its focus on new energy materials, particularly photovoltaic-grade EVA products [4]. - Companies are adjusting their product structures to cope with market competition, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's "reduce oil and increase chemicals" strategy leading to a 5.46% increase in chemical product revenue [5]. - Hengyi Petrochemical is optimizing its polyester product structure, increasing the proportion of differentiated fibers to 27% and accelerating the development of high-end biodegradable fibers [5]. Group 4: International Market Impact - Companies with significant overseas business exposure faced substantial revenue declines, with Hengyi Petrochemical's overseas revenue dropping nearly 15% to 24.38 billion yuan [5]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical's overseas revenue fell over 33% to 14.97 billion yuan, nearly ten times the decline in domestic revenue [5]. - Hengli Petrochemical highlighted challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, which significantly compressed profit margins and disrupted global textile supply chains [5]. Group 5: Cost Management - Companies indicated that fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly crude oil, pose risks to operations, despite some cost relief in the first half of the year [6]. - Companies are focusing on refined cost control and dynamic analysis to manage procurement strategies effectively and mitigate the impact of raw material price volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is facing significant challenges, with major private refining companies reporting declines in both revenue and net profit due to market saturation and intense competition, leading to a "production increase without profit increase" scenario [4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Four major private refining companies, Hengli Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, reported a combined net profit of approximately 4.27 billion yuan, a nearly 40% decline year-on-year [3]. - Hengli Petrochemical led with a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, down over 24% year-on-year, while Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical reported net profits of 602 million yuan, 386 million yuan, and 227 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -29.82%, +21.24%, and -47.32% [3][5]. - Dongfang Shenghong was the only company among the four to achieve net profit growth, benefiting from its investments in the renewable energy materials sector, particularly in photovoltaic-grade EVA products [5]. Group 2: Market Environment - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, characterized by narrowing product price differentials and ineffective cost transmission, compounded by fierce internal competition [3][4]. - The industry has seen a cumulative increase of over 50% in production capacity and output for various petrochemical products over the past five years, leading to oversupply in the market [4]. Group 3: Revenue Trends - Over half of the main products from the four major private refining companies saw revenue declines in the first half of the year, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's revenue from refining and PTA products decreasing by 12.4% and 39.6%, respectively [5]. - Hengyi Petrochemical and Dongfang Shenghong also experienced approximately 20% declines in revenue from refining products, while Hengyi's chemical, PTA, and polyester products saw revenue reductions of 15.2%, 21.3%, and 4.24% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Companies are focusing on product structure adjustments to cope with market challenges, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's "reduce oil and increase chemicals" strategy yielding a 5.46% increase in chemical product revenue [6]. - Hengyi Petrochemical is optimizing its polyester product structure, increasing the proportion of differentiated fibers to 27%, and accelerating the development of high-end biodegradable fibers [6]. Group 5: International Business Impact - Companies with significant overseas business exposure, such as Hengyi Petrochemical, reported substantial revenue impacts, with overseas revenue declining nearly 15% to 24.38 billion yuan, exceeding the domestic revenue decline of 12.6% [6]. - The U.S. tariff policies have posed severe challenges for export-oriented companies, compressing profit margins and affecting global supply chain stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of product structure has become a key strategy for refining companies to cope with the intense competition in the industry, leading to a decline in revenue and profits for major players in the sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Four major private refining companies reported a decline in revenue, with a total net profit of approximately 4.27 billion yuan, down nearly 40% year-on-year [1]. - Hengli Petrochemical led with a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, but this represented a year-on-year decline of over 24% [1]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical reported net profits of 602 million yuan, 386 million yuan, and 227 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -29.82%, +21.24%, and -47.32% respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The refining and chemical industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, characterized by narrowing product price differentials and intense competition, leading to a continuous decline in operating income and profit margins since 2021 [2]. - The production capacity and output of various petrochemical products have increased by over 50% in the past five years, resulting in a market environment where supply exceeds domestic consumption [2]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Companies are shifting their product structures to adapt to market conditions, with Rongsheng Petrochemical's "reduce oil and increase chemicals" strategy showing positive results, leading to a 5.46% increase in chemical product revenue [3]. - Hengyi Petrochemical is optimizing its polyester product structure, increasing the proportion of differentiated fibers to 27% and accelerating the development of high-end biodegradable fibers [3]. Group 4: International Business Impact - Companies with significant overseas business exposure, such as Hengyi Petrochemical, have seen revenue declines, with overseas revenue dropping nearly 15% to 24.38 billion yuan [4]. - The U.S. tariff policy has posed significant challenges for export-oriented companies, compressing profit margins and affecting global supply chain stability [4]. Group 5: Cost Management Strategies - Companies are focusing on refined and agile cost control measures in response to the volatility of international oil prices and raw material costs [5]. - Strategies include dynamic analysis and procurement timing to manage raw material price fluctuations effectively [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the stable growth of the main business while actively exploring new opportunities in semiconductors and embodied intelligence [3][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.099 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 93 million yuan, an increase of 0.9% [3][4] - The sales gross margin improved to 26.07%, up 0.14 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective product structure optimization [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that Sinopec's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.4091 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 21.5 billion yuan, down 39.83% [8][9] - The company achieved a historical high in domestic oil and gas equivalent production, reaching 262.81 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [11][12] - The refining segment faced challenges due to fluctuating international oil prices and declining demand for gasoline and diesel [13][39] Group 3 - The report on Ruihua Tai indicates a revenue of 182 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.86%, with a net profit loss of 34 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses [17][18] - The company is gradually ramping up production capacity at its Jiaxing base, with new product development in the semiconductor and renewable energy sectors [21][19] Group 4 - Yanggu Huatai reported a revenue of 1.722 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 2.09% year-on-year, but a net profit decrease of 8.43% [25][26] - The company is actively pursuing the acquisition of Bomi Technology, which specializes in semiconductor materials, indicating a strategic expansion into the electronic chemicals sector [28][29] Group 5 - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber reported a revenue of 3.738 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.52% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit by 58.58% [32][33] - The company maintains a leading position in the production of biomass cellulose filament, leveraging unique technology to enhance supply chain security [35][36] Group 6 - Hengyi Petrochemical's revenue for H1 2025 was 55.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of 227 million yuan, down 47.32% [38][39] - The company is set to launch a new nylon project in the second half of 2025, which is expected to strengthen its market position [40][41] Group 7 - Dongfang Shenghong reported a revenue of 60.916 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 16.36% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 21.24% [43] - The company’s refining segment turned profitable, indicating resilience amid challenging market conditions [43]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that Hengyi Petrochemical achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 227 million yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 47.32% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for Q2 2025 showed both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, indicating a positive trend for the second half of the year [1] - The projected production launch of the 1.2 million ton caprolactam-nylon project in Guangxi is expected to contribute positively to the company's financial performance in the latter half of the year [1] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - The project integrates technological advantages, vertical integration, and product structure advantages, which are anticipated to further solidify the company's position in the industry [1] - The establishment of a unique "polyester + nylon" dual-main business model is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the domestic market [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The company is recognized as a leading private multinational enterprise in the "refining-chemical-fiber" integration sector within the petrochemical and chemical fiber industry [1] - Continuous efforts to extend and strengthen the supply chain, along with the diversification and optimization of product offerings, are viewed positively for the company's growth potential [1]

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" based on the performance of the industry index relative to the benchmark [136]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the "Golden September" season is approaching, leading to improved orders in the downstream long filament sector [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending September 5, 2025, was $67.67 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.99% [2]. - Domestic and foreign refining project price differentials were tracked, with domestic projects at 2361.03 CNY/ton (-1.28%) and foreign projects at 1133.43 CNY/ton (+4.45%) [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Geopolitical risks have increased due to attacks on oil tankers, while U.S. oil demand has decreased, leading to concerns about supply exceeding demand [1]. - Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $65.5 and $61.9 per barrel, respectively, showing declines from the previous week [14]. - The domestic and international product price differentials have widened, with domestic diesel and gasoline prices slightly down [14]. Chemical Sector - The report indicates a mixed trend in refining product price differentials, with olefins showing slight improvement while aromatics have narrowed [1]. - Polyethylene prices fluctuated, while polypropylene prices remained stable with a slight widening of price differentials [53]. - EVA prices increased due to strong demand from the photovoltaic sector, with significant widening of price differentials [53]. Polyester Sector - The cost structure for the polyester industry has shifted downwards, but demand for long filaments has improved as the peak season approaches [1]. - The average price for polyester long filaments has increased, leading to improved profitability [104]. - The report notes a decrease in supply for long filaments, with domestic and foreign orders showing slight increases [104]. Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major refining companies was tracked, with notable changes in their stock prices over the past week and month [124]. - The report indicates that the refining index has increased by 41.24% since September 4, 2017, outperforming the broader market indices [125].