Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 0.79% on January 12, with *ST Rock leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of *ST Rock was 3.20, with a gain of 4.92% and a trading volume of 132,400 shares, amounting to 41.70 million yuan [1] - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 141.73, up 2.94%, with a trading volume of 48,000 shares and a transaction value of 675 million yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 119.29, increasing by 2.08%, with a trading volume of 129,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.54 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 403 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 29.32 million yuan [1] - Wuliangye had a main fund net inflow of 267 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 87.06 million yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao recorded a main fund net inflow of 85.62 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 34.07 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming judicial auction of shares held by Yibin Zhiyi Liquor Co., Ltd. in A-share company Mengsheng Electronics, highlighting potential arbitrage opportunities due to the difference between the auction starting price and the market value of the shares [3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yibin Zhiyi Liquor Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 with a registered capital of 50 million yuan, and its shareholders include Li Songtao, Liu Nan, and Zhang Chunyi [6]. - The company was once a well-known liquor distributor and has made significant donations to educational institutions, including over 1,000 boxes of liquor to universities [6]. Group 2: Financial Situation - Zhiyi Liquor has faced severe operational crises in recent years, with numerous lawsuits and a total amount involved in execution reaching nearly 200 million yuan [3][12]. - The company was listed as an executed person by the Chengdu Intermediate People's Court in May 2022, with an execution amount of 367 million yuan [12][14]. Group 3: Shareholding and Investment - Zhiyi Liquor's investment in Mengsheng Electronics began in 2019, with a cumulative investment of approximately 50 million yuan, and it held 2.9656 million shares at the time of the company's IPO [9]. - Following a stock split in 2022, Zhiyi Liquor's holdings increased to 4.1518 million shares, with a current market value exceeding 240 million yuan [9]. Group 4: Auction Details - The judicial auction for the shares is set to take place from January 23 to January 24, with a starting price of 87.4369 million yuan and a market valuation of 105 million yuan [5]. - As of now, there have been no registrations for the auction [5]. Group 5: Market Performance - Mengsheng Electronics has been performing well in the market, with its stock price increasing by over 90% since late November of the previous year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The judicial auction of 2,965,600 shares of Alliance Electronics (688311) held by Yibin Zhiyi Liquor Co., Ltd. is set to begin, with a starting price of 87.4369 million yuan and a market valuation of 105 million yuan, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities due to the current market value exceeding 174 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Company Background - Yibin Zhiyi Liquor Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 with a registered capital of 50 million yuan, primarily engaged in the sales and services of products like Wuliangchun liquor [4]. - The company has a history of significant charitable contributions, including donations of over 1,000 boxes of liquor to universities and a total of more than 400,000 yuan in scholarships since 2007 [4]. Group 2: Financial Situation - Yibin Zhiyi Liquor has faced severe operational crises in recent years, accumulating debts and becoming a defendant in multiple lawsuits, with total amounts involved nearing 200 million yuan [1][12]. - The company was listed as a defendant by the Chengdu Intermediate People's Court in May 2022, with an execution amount of 367 million yuan, and was later included in the tax non-compliance list due to tax arrears [11][12]. Group 3: Investment History - The company initially invested approximately 50 million yuan in Alliance Electronics starting in 2019, holding 2,965,600 shares at the time of the IPO, which had a market value of about 123 million yuan based on the initial offering price [7]. - Following a stock split in 2022, the company's holdings increased to 4,151,800 shares, with a current market value exceeding 240 million yuan, although all shares have been frozen [7]. Group 4: Market Performance - Alliance Electronics has been performing well in the market, with its stock price increasing by over 90% since late November of the previous year [5].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.34% as of the report time [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu have surged over 2%, while Wuliangye and Yanghe have increased by more than 1% [1] - Kweichow Moutai has implemented a strategy to stabilize the market by directly reaching consumers through its iMoutai platform, which has gained over 2.7 million new users [1] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai's recent dealer communication emphasized three principles: preventing speculation, adapting supply and demand, and stabilizing the market [2] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the PE ratio of the Huabao ETF at 20.16, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [2] - The white liquor industry is expected to reach a turning point as major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implement market strategies ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The iMoutai platform's launch of the full range of Moutai products is expected to stabilize prices and improve market management [3] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [3] - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked fund for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [3]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.34% as of the latest update [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu have surged over 2%, while Wuliangye and Yanghe have increased by more than 1% [1] - The recent communication from Kweichow Moutai to its distributors emphasizes a strategy to stabilize the market by ensuring product availability directly to consumers, with over 2.7 million new users on the iMoutai platform [2][4] Group 2 - Guojin Securities notes that the market's expectations for the liquor industry are at an absolute low, and the clear volume and price planning from leading companies will alleviate concerns about price competition [3] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, making it a favorable time for investment, with the food and beverage ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.16, which is in the bottom 5.88% of the last decade [3] - CITIC Securities suggests that the current adjustments in the liquor industry may signal a turning point, with the upcoming Spring Festival being a critical observation period for market recovery [4] Group 3 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with about 60% of its portfolio allocated to these sectors [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, indicating a strong focus on established players in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by Wuliangye Group emphasized the achievements of the specialty consumer goods sector in 2025 and outlined strategies for 2026 and the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on enhancing core business and overcoming development bottlenecks [1][3]. Group 1: Achievements and Strategies - The specialty consumer goods sector, which includes areas like black tea and clothing, has shown significant progress in 2025, with notable revenue and profit growth driven by companies like Shengshan Group and Chuanhong Group [1][3]. - The emphasis is on returning to core responsibilities, leveraging industry turning points, and moving away from a "small and weak" model through scaling, standardization, and branding [1][3]. Group 2: Four Breakthroughs - Companies are urged to achieve "four breakthroughs": 1. Capability breakthrough through standard leadership, professional certification, and R&D platform development [1][3]. 2. Quality breakthrough by creating differentiated products through technological innovation and single product strategies to enhance brand reputation [1][3]. 3. Market breakthrough by deepening core markets and existing customers while expanding into overseas markets and high-end sectors [1][3]. 4. Mechanism breakthrough by establishing organizational, talent, and incentive mechanisms aligned with strategic goals [1][3]. Group 3: Future Planning - Companies should enhance resource sharing and complementary advantages, deepen collaboration in business, channels, and branding, and create a closed-loop development model [2][4]. - The focus is on setting clear operational goals for 2026, detailing actionable measures, and scientifically planning the 14th Five-Year Plan to build a competitive and distinctive specialty consumer goods industry cluster [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows signs of stabilization in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 12, with an overall price increase after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,925 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 7 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a slowdown in the downward price trend [1]. - The market exhibits a mixed pattern of price changes, with some products increasing in price while others decrease [1]. Price Increases - Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, up 10 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Gujinggong 20, up 7 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, up 5 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang, up 4 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang 20, up 1 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Shujian Jiananspring, stable compared to the previous day [1]. Price Decreases - Significant price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, down 8 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation, down 8 yuan per bottle, falling below 800 yuan for the first time in a month [1][3]. - Boutique Moutai, down 3 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Xijiu Junpin, down 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The stabilization of prices for most core products is the primary factor driving the overall price recovery in the market [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand structure of raw milk is improving, and the snack food sector continues to show upward momentum. The food and beverage index increased by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as processed foods (+6.7%), soft drinks (+5.8%), and snacks (+4.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for raw milk are optimizing, and the snack food sector is experiencing sustained growth. The recent policy by the Ministry of Commerce to implement safeguard measures on imported beef is expected to alleviate the impact on domestic industries, leading to a potential increase in beef prices over the next 2-3 years. The domestic dairy sector is facing challenges, with a continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory, which may lead to a widening supply-demand gap post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.7 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Qianwei Yangchun, Anji Food, and Yangyuan Beverage, while stocks like Jiabi You, *ST Chuntian, and Xianle Health saw declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - As of January 6, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,407 per ton, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year decrease. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term [19][21]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the improving raw milk supply-demand balance and the growth in the snack food sector. Notable mentions include: - Yuran Agriculture: Expected to benefit from the recovery in raw milk prices. - Modern Dairy: Anticipated to gain from the overall industry improvement. - Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy: Expected to see positive impacts from the anticipated recovery in milk prices [10][11]. Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is projected to continue its upward trend, particularly during the Spring Festival season. Companies such as Weilang Delicious, Ganyuan Food, and Yanjin Food are highlighted for their potential growth due to seasonal demand and strategic initiatives [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, with expectations for a recovery in sales and valuation improvements in 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring with a focus on balancing volume and price, and a potential turning point is anticipated in Q3 2026 [2][6]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer price index (CPI) as a key indicator for the consumer goods sector, predicting gradual improvements in food CPI throughout 2026 [2][6]. - The report recommends several high-quality liquor companies for long-term investment, including Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also suggesting attention to Wuliangye and other brands [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview of Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.12% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 2.46%, although it underperformed the broader market by 1.70 percentage points [5]. - Notable stock performances included Ziyuan Food (+33.97%), Qianwei Central Kitchen (+22.52%), and Anji Food (+18.34%) [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sub-sectors - The food and beverage industry lagged behind the Shenwan A index by 3.06 percentage points, with various sub-sectors underperforming, particularly beverages and dairy [33][34]. 3. Liquor Pricing Trends - As of January 10, 2026, the price of Moutai was reported at 1540 RMB for loose bottles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 50 RMB, while the price for a case rose by 40 RMB to 1545 RMB [7][19]. - The report indicates that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks and suggesting a potential for price stability moving forward [7][19]. 4. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in competitive strategies from price-based to quality-based approaches among consumer goods companies, with expectations for improved margins as raw material costs stabilize [2][6]. - Recommendations for consumer goods include Anjijia Food, Yili Group, and Tianwei Food, with a focus on the supply chain related to condiments and frozen foods [8]. 5. Dairy Industry Outlook - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with growth potential in deep-processed products and low-temperature milk [8][9]. - Yili Group's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.3 billion, 12.2 billion, and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [9].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai implementing drastic changes to adapt to market conditions, including a shift to direct sales and the introduction of new products through the "i Moutai" platform [1][5][35]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall white liquor sector saw a nearly 15% decline in 2024, with Kweichow Moutai's net profit expected to drop by 50% to 60% in 2025, from 16.55 billion yuan to an estimated 6.62 billion to 8.28 billion yuan [1][21]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 20 A-share listed liquor companies reported a combined revenue of 317.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%, and a net profit drop of 6.93% to 122.57 billion yuan [21][23]. - The average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 1,424 days by the end of Q3 2025, a significant increase of 65% compared to the same period in 2024 [25]. Group 2: Kweichow Moutai's Strategy - Kweichow Moutai has announced a major reform to eliminate its distribution model, transitioning to a direct sales approach, which is expected to stabilize pricing and improve profit margins [5][12][35]. - The launch of the "i Moutai" platform has seen over 100,000 purchases within three days of offering the 500ml flying Moutai, indicating strong consumer demand despite the broader market challenges [4][10]. - The company aims to combat counterfeit products and enhance its brand image as a state-owned enterprise through these reforms, although it may face short-term resistance from distributors [13][15][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is experiencing a widespread phenomenon of price inversion, with 58.1% of liquor companies reporting increased inventory pressure and over 40% of retailers facing cash flow issues [20]. - The market is witnessing a shift in consumer behavior, with a growing demand for high-quality, cost-effective products in the 100-300 yuan price range, projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in market size [37]. - The industry's future growth will depend on companies' ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, with a focus on innovation and flexible sales strategies [36][39].