Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase driven by demand, value, and supply dynamics [5][6][7] - Global supply constraints and the exit of European capacities are expected to enhance the market environment for the chemical sector [7] Demand Drivers - Key opportunities identified in various sectors include: - Gas turbine upstream: companies like Zhenhua Co., Yingliu Co., Longda Co., and Wanze Co. [5] - Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: companies such as Juhua Co., New Zhoubang, and Runhe Materials [5] - Energy storage supply chain: including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Co., and others [5] - Semiconductor materials: companies like Yanggu Huatai, Wanrun Co., Dinglong Co., and others [5] Value Drivers - Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as: - Coal chemical: Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - Oil refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and Sinopec [6] - Phosphate fertilizers: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, and others [6] Supply Drivers - Domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of European production capacities are expected to support the chemical industry: - PTA and polyester filament: companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. [7] - Tire manufacturing: including Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and others [7] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Selected companies with profit forecasts include: - Zhenhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 6.04 billion, PE: 21.8) [8] - Yingliu Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 4.08 billion, PE: 42.7) [8] - Longda Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 1.06 billion, PE: 34.9) [8] - Wanze Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 2.37 billion, PE: 32.9) [8] - Juhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 48.14 billion, PE: 24.4) [8] Industry Cycle Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with demand recovery and supply-side reforms driving growth [14][21] - The chemical price index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upturn in the market [20][21]

公司名称：新洋丰农业科技股份有限公司 统一社会信用代码：91420800764100001A 类 型：其他股份有限公司（上市） 住 所：湖北省荆门市月亮湖北路附 7 号 关于完成工商变更登记的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 新洋丰农业科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2025 年 10 月 24 日、 2025 年 11 月 14 日召开第九届董事会第十六次会议及 2025 年第三次临时股东会，审议 通过了《关于变更注册资本、取消监事会暨修订<公司章程>的议案》，具体内容详见公 司于 2025 年 10 月 27 日在《中国证券报》、《证券时报》、《证券日报》、《上海证 券报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于变更注册资本、取消 监事会暨修订<公司章程>的公告》。 2025 年 12 月 12 日，公司完成了相关的工商变更登记手续，并取得了由荆门市市场 监督管理局颁发的新版《营业执照》，其相关信息如下： | 证券代码：000902 | 证券简称：新洋丰 | 编号：2025-058 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - XinYangFeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. has successfully re-certified as a high-tech enterprise and its subsidiary, Jilin XinYangFeng Fertilizer Co., Ltd., has achieved its first high-tech enterprise certification, bringing the total to five high-tech enterprises within the XinYangFeng system [1] Group 1 - The company adheres to the strategy of "innovation-driven, green development" and has significantly increased its R&D investment [1] - Over the past three years, the company has invested nearly 500 million yuan in R&D and has undertaken seven key national R&D projects or topics during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The company has participated in the formulation of four national standards and five industry standards, and has obtained 54 invention patents [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company XinYangFeng is leveraging technological innovation to transform the fertilizer industry, focusing on green and high-value development while enhancing economic and ecological benefits [1][2]. Group 1: Company History and Development - XinYangFeng's history is marked by technological innovation, starting from its establishment in 1982 and overcoming early financial difficulties through strategic reforms [2]. - The company transitioned from traditional fertilizers to new types of fertilizers, establishing a research center in collaboration with China Agricultural University in 2010, which led to the development of controlled-release and water-soluble fertilizers [2]. - Currently, XinYangFeng has built 14 production bases across the country, with a production capacity exceeding 10 million tons of phosphate fertilizers and annual sales surpassing 5 million tons, positioning itself as a leader in the domestic phosphate fertilizer industry [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Research - XinYangFeng has established several provincial innovation platforms and invested over 200 million yuan annually in research and development since 2022, collaborating with various research institutions on significant projects [4]. - The company has achieved notable recognition for its innovations, including multiple provincial science and technology awards and over 260 authorized patents [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Impact and Community Engagement - Since 2010, XinYangFeng has participated in the national soil testing and fertilization initiative, completing over 2,000 soil testing reports and developing more than 1,600 crop nutrition solutions [6]. - In 2024 alone, the company conducted over 10,000 technical training sessions, benefiting more than 600,000 farmers and establishing 10,000 demonstration fields [6]. Group 4: Strategic Direction and Future Outlook - In response to industry challenges, XinYangFeng is focusing on dual development in phosphate fertilizers and fine chemicals, maximizing the value of phosphate resources and establishing a comprehensive innovation chain [7]. - The company is also transitioning towards digital and intelligent production models, aiming for breakthroughs in various key areas, including the industrialization of lithium iron phosphate for new energy batteries [7]. - Looking ahead, XinYangFeng plans to continue its focus on innovation-driven and green development, targeting advanced fields such as new fertilizers, fine chemicals, and high-value utilization of phosphogypsum [9].

Core Insights - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a slight increase of 0.38% on December 10, with Yara International leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13316.42, up 0.29% [1] Agricultural Chemical Sector Performance - Yara International (000893) closed at 46.94, up 2.78% with a trading volume of 90,100 shares [1] - YunTu Holdings (002539) closed at 10.86, up 2.26% with a trading volume of 136,400 shares [1] - Salt Lake Industry (000792) closed at 25.63, up 1.99% with a trading volume of 543,000 shares [1] - Other notable performers include BaTian Co. (002170) up 1.44%, Jiangshan Co. (600389) up 1.43%, and HongTaiYang (000525) up 1.39% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 410 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 410 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in Yara International (000893) with 18.52 million yuan and New Yangfeng (000902) with 8.72 million yuan [2] - Conversely, significant net outflows from institutional investors were noted in Sichuan Meifeng (000731) and Hualu Hensheng (600426) [2]

Demand Side - The demand for phosphate rock in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively, resulting in an actual incremental demand of 482 million tons and 612 million tons [2] - Emerging demand from the energy storage sector is expected to drive the phosphate chemical industry, with the incremental demand for phosphate rock from energy storage batteries estimated at 393 million tons and 431 million tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain weak due to rising raw material prices, with a low likelihood of recovery in phosphate fertilizer demand in 2025 and 2026 [2] Supply Side - In 2024, China's phosphate rock capacity, effective capacity, and output are projected to be 19,447 million tons, 11,916 million tons, and 11,353 million tons respectively, with expected capacities of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly affected by environmental safety incidents, leading to a large gap between planned and actual production capacities [3] - The phosphate iron industry is experiencing long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and output for phosphate iron in 2024 estimated at 426 million tons and 205 million tons respectively, and expected to increase to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity in 2024 is expected to be 58%, with effective capacity operating at 95%, and projected to balance supply and demand in 2025 and 2026 [4] - Low-grade phosphate rock prices may face slight pressure, while high-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated [4] - The phosphate iron market is anticipated to experience tight supply, with effective capacity operating rates expected to improve from 48% in 2024 to 60% and 80% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with integrated phosphate rock and phosphate iron production capabilities are recommended, including Tianqi Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co [5] - Companies with phosphate iron production and rich phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit significantly from rising phosphate iron prices, including Chuanheng Co, Xingfa Group, and Batian Co [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the expected growth in demand for phosphate rock driven by emerging sectors, while traditional demand is projected to decline. The overall supply and demand dynamics for phosphate rock and iron phosphate are analyzed for the years 2024 to 2026 [1][2][3]. Demand Side - Phosphate rock demand in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The actual increase in demand is estimated at 482 million tons and 612 million tons [1]. - Emerging sectors, particularly energy storage and power batteries, are expected to drive demand for phosphate rock, with an increase of 393 million tons and 431 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Iron phosphate is anticipated to contribute significantly to this demand [1]. - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to weaken due to rising raw material prices, with a forecasted decline in phosphate fertilizer production in early 2025 [1]. - Iron phosphate demand is projected to reach 214 million tons in 2024, increasing to 325 million tons and 449 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with significant contributions from energy storage [1]. Supply Side - Phosphate rock production capacity in China is expected to be 19,447 million tons in 2024, with projections of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons for 2025 and 2026. Effective capacity and production are also expected to increase correspondingly [2]. - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly impacted by environmental safety incidents, leading to a gap between planned and actual production capacity [2]. - The iron phosphate industry is characterized by long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and production expected to rise from 426 million tons and 205 million tons in 2024 to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity is projected to be 58% in 2024, with expectations of 57% and 54% in 2025 and 2026. High-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated, while low-grade prices may face slight pressure [3]. - The iron phosphate market is anticipated to experience tight supply conditions, with operating rates expected to improve significantly in 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential supply gap [3]. Recommended Companies - Companies with phosphate iron and phosphate rock layouts are recommended, including Tianci Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co. [4]. - Integrated chemical companies with phosphate iron production and phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit from rising phosphate iron prices, with suggested companies including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others [4].

Summary of China Agriculture: Fertilizers Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Fertilizer sector in China - **Importance**: Fertilizers are essential for enhancing agricultural productivity and ensuring food security in China, which produces nearly one-third of global fertilizers while utilizing only 9% of global cropland [2][9] Key Insights 1. **Phosphate Fertilizer Outlook**: - Anticipated improvement in phosphate fertilizer pricing due to higher utilization driven by increased compound fertilizer consumption [2][17] - Expected domestic phosphate rock pricing to rise from Rmb1,000/t to Rmb1,051/t in 2026E and Rmb1,150/t by 2030E, reflecting a structural deficit in supply [9][26] 2. **Urea Market Dynamics**: - Deterioration in urea balance expected due to new supply additions, with potential easing of exports providing upside risk [2][17] - Forecasted decline in domestic urea pricing by 5% in 2026E [17] 3. **Potash Market Conditions**: - Rising surplus in the domestic potash market anticipated as Laos expansion by Chinese producers ramps up [2][17] - Potash benchmark pricing revised down by 3% for 2026E due to surplus outlook [17] 4. **Product Upgrades and Efficiency**: - Increased penetration of slow-release and water-soluble fertilizers expected to drive better growth than the industry average, enhancing absorption efficiency [3][9] - Projected growth in slow-release/water-soluble fertilizer market share from nearly 10% in 2024A to 40% by 2030E [13] Company Coverage Initiation 1. **Yuntianhua (YTH)**: - Rating: Buy - Target Price: Rmb45.0/sh, implying 43% upside - Key Strength: Integrated producer with self-sufficient phosphate rock resources [4][20] 2. **Xinlianxin (XLX)**: - Rating: Neutral - Target Price: HK$8.5/sh, implying 7% downside - Key Strength: Low-cost urea producer with differentiated slow-release fertilizer offerings [4][20] 3. **New Yonfer**: - Rating: Neutral - Target Price: Rmb16.0/sh, implying 2% upside - Key Strength: Leading high-end compound fertilizer producer with potential for upstream resource integration [4][20] 4. **Qinhai Salt Lake (QHL)**: - Rating: Sell - Target Price: Rmb16.0/sh, implying 37% downside - Key Concern: Surplus outlook in the domestic potash market [4][20] Additional Insights - **Global Trade Position**: China has historically contributed significantly to global fertilizer trade, with 29% of global urea exports and 30% of MAP/DAP exports at its peak [17] - **Environmental Considerations**: The report highlights the importance of improving absorption efficiency in fertilizers to address challenges posed by structural tightness in natural resources [9][25] Conclusion - The fertilizer sector in China is poised for changes driven by supply-demand dynamics, product upgrades, and strategic company positioning. The outlook for phosphate fertilizers appears positive, while urea and potash markets face challenges. The initiation of coverage on key players reflects a strategic approach to capitalize on these trends.

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the necessity of leveraging technology to achieve the goal of increasing grain production from 1.4 trillion jin to 1.5 trillion jin during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting its commitment to transforming from a traditional fertilizer manufacturer to a provider of crop nutrition solutions [1][2]. Group 1: Technological and Product Innovations - The company aims to enhance product efficiency by shifting from excessive fertilizer use to precision application, focusing on improving nutrient utilization and soil health [2]. - A robust R&D system has been established, including over 260 patents and participation in more than 20 national and provincial research projects, to address industry challenges such as low fertilizer efficiency [2]. - Collaborations with research institutions have led to innovative solutions, such as integrating ARC technology into fertilizers to improve crop quality and yield [2]. Group 2: Digital Services and Agricultural Support - The company has formed a specialized agricultural service team of over 200 members, investing more than 40 million yuan annually to provide customized fertilization plans and technical guidance to farmers [3]. - A digital platform named "Yangfeng Shennonghui" has been developed to offer tailored nutritional solutions using big data and crop growth models, aiming to enhance fertilizer efficiency and protect soil quality [3]. Group 3: Future Investments and Strategic Directions - The company plans to invest in enhancing supply chain resilience by developing a dual business model that includes both traditional fertilizer production and new materials such as iron phosphate and refined phosphoric acid [4]. - Regional optimization efforts are underway, with 14 production bases established across various provinces, including a new project in Anhui with an annual capacity of 1 million tons of specialized fertilizers [4]. - Digital transformation initiatives are being prioritized to improve internal capabilities, with automation rates in production facilities increasing from 75% to 99% [4]. Group 4: Green Transformation and Sustainability Efforts - The company is committed to energy conservation and carbon reduction throughout its production processes, focusing on technological upgrades and digital transformations [5][6]. - Efforts to utilize phosphogypsum, a byproduct of fertilizer production, are being implemented, with a capacity to process over 7 million tons annually, aiming for high-value applications in ecological restoration and construction materials [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the necessity of leveraging technology to achieve the goal of increasing grain production from 1.4 trillion jin to 1.5 trillion jin during the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting its commitment to transforming from a traditional fertilizer manufacturer to a provider of crop nutrition solutions [1] Group 1: Technological and Product Innovations - The company aims to enhance fertilizer efficiency and soil health by transitioning from excessive fertilizer use to precision application, supported by a robust R&D system that includes over 260 patents and participation in more than 20 national and provincial research projects [2] - Collaboration with academic institutions, such as the team led by Academician Li Peiwu, has led to innovative solutions like integrating ARC technology into fertilizers, addressing global challenges like aflatoxin while improving crop yields [2] Group 2: Digital Services and Agricultural Support - The establishment of a professional agronomy service team of over 200 members, with an annual investment exceeding 40 million yuan, provides customized fertilization plans and comprehensive technical guidance to farmers [3] - The company has developed the "Yangfeng Shennonghui" digital platform, utilizing big data and crop growth models to offer tailored nutritional solutions, thereby enhancing fertilizer utilization and protecting arable land quality [3] Group 3: Future Investments and Strategic Directions - The company plans to invest in supply chain resilience by establishing a "dual main business" model, focusing on both its core phosphate fertilizer business and exploring new growth areas in renewable materials and fine chemicals [4] - Regional optimization efforts include the construction of 14 production bases across various provinces, with a new 1 million-ton specialized fertilizer project in Anhui aimed at strengthening market competitiveness in key agricultural regions [4] - Digital transformation initiatives are underway to enhance internal capabilities, with automation in ammonia synthesis increasing from 75% to 99%, aiming to replace demographic advantages with technological benefits [4] Group 4: Green Transition and Sustainability Efforts - The company is committed to a green transition during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on the comprehensive utilization of phosphogypsum, with a processing capacity exceeding 7 million tons annually and a leading utilization rate in the industry [5] - Innovative solutions for phosphogypsum include its application in ecological restoration projects and the production of high-value products like gypsum building materials and soil conditioners, promoting resource recycling [5] - Efforts to reduce energy consumption and material waste throughout the production process are being implemented, alongside the introduction of new efficient fertilizers designed for soil improvement [5]