Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stability of the real estate market," focusing on urban village renovations, high-quality housing, and stock housing acquisition [2][4]. - The report indicates that the incremental policy window for the real estate industry is gradually opening, with a more proactive macroeconomic and fiscal policy environment expected to support market recovery, particularly in first-tier cities [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in transaction volume, with new and second-hand housing sales in 19 key cities rising by 18% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in market stabilization [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The meeting's focus on urban renewal, stock housing acquisition, and high-quality housing supply aligns with previous predictions regarding the incremental policy window [4]. - The emphasis on urban renewal actions and the acceleration of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations signal strong governmental support for these initiatives [4]. Market Recovery - The report notes that while the market has shown signs of stabilization, particularly in sales volume, the foundation for price stability remains fragile, necessitating ongoing policy support [3]. - The report suggests that first-tier cities will exhibit greater policy elasticity, which could lead to a more pronounced recovery in the market and related stocks [2][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products," particularly in first-tier cities [5]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - A-share developers: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings, China Merchants Shekou, and Jianfa Co [5][9]. - Hong Kong-listed developers: China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and Yuexiu Property [5][9]. - Property management companies: China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Jiyu, and Binjiang Service [5][9].

华泰研究 房地产 证券研究报告 上周市场热度环比维持平稳 2025 年 4 月 27 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十七周） 热度维持平稳，关注去库存进展 上周（4 月 19 日-4 月 25 日）房地产市场热度环比维持平稳。备案数据来 看，上周 44 城新房备案数据环比+7%，其中一线、二线、三线分别环比+6%、 +11%、+0.02%；22 城二手房备案数据环比-0.5%，其中一线、二线、三线 分别环比-4%、+3%、-9%。库存角度，截至 4 月 20 日，21 个重点城市库 存环比+0.5%，一线、二线、三线分别环比+1.7%、-0.1%、+0.1%；截至 4 月 27 日，20 个样本城市二手房挂牌量较 4 月 20 日上升 0.5%。一线城市 二手房挂牌量较 4 月 20 日上升 0.5%。 行情回顾 上周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.38%，房地产开发板块下跌 1.31%，恒生指数上 涨 2.74%，中华内房股指数 CNY 下跌 0.06%，恒生物业服务及管理指数上 涨 1.67%。 重点公司及动态 我们看好重点城市区域市场的量价回升，以及在对应区域拥有储备或新获取 资源的房企的估值修复，同时我们认为 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on Gujinggong Liquor (古井贡酒) - The company reported 2024 revenue of 23.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.52 billion, up 20.2% year-on-year [12][16] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.15 billion, growing 10.4% year-on-year, with net profit at 2.33 billion, a 12.8% increase [12][16] - The company maintains a buy rating with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.92 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.63 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 7.3%, 6.3%, and 5.3% [16] Group 2: Key Insights on Chongqing Bank (重庆银行) - In Q1 2025, Chongqing Bank achieved revenue of 3.6 billion, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.6 billion, also up 5.3% [15][20] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.21%, with a provision coverage ratio rising to 248% [15][20] - The bank's loan growth accelerated, with a 16.4% year-on-year increase, driven by a more than 30% growth in corporate loans [20] Group 3: Industry Insights on Real Estate - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, highlighting the need for high-quality housing supply [22][26] - The meeting also called for optimizing the policies for acquiring existing housing stock, indicating a proactive approach to address market challenges [26] - The real estate sector is viewed as crucial for economic stability, with ongoing support expected to enhance market conditions [22][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 69.15 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, but managed to grow its net profit attributable to shareholders by 0.7% to 2.55 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant reduction in impairment losses and lower expense ratios [1][3]. - The company ranked 9th in sales among real estate firms, marking a 2-position improvement from the previous year, and is the only private enterprise in the top 10 [2]. - The company has focused its land acquisition strategy on high-quality locations, particularly in Hangzhou, where it holds a 37% market share [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 12.5% in 2024, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.7% [1][5]. - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt to 37.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year, with a net debt ratio of 57% [3][5]. - The financing cost decreased to 3.4% in 2024, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, with plans to further reduce it to below 3.3% in 2025 [3][5]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company’s total sales for 2024 were 111.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year, but it aims for sales of around 100 billion yuan in 2025 [2]. - The company acquired 23 plots of land in 2024, with 22 located in Hangzhou, maintaining a rational investment strategy despite a decrease in land acquisition volume [2][3]. Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 70.83 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected to reach 2.79 billion yuan [3][5]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.90 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.2 times based on the current stock price [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 69.152 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.546 billion RMB, reflecting a slight increase of 0.66% [2][3] - The company's gross margin decreased to 12.54% in 2024 from 16.76% in 2023, primarily due to the settlement of low-margin projects from 2020-2021, with expectations for gradual recovery as higher-margin projects from 2022-2024 are recognized [3] - The company ranked 9th in the industry sales ranking, entering the top 10 for the first time, and is the only private real estate company in this group [3] - The company's interest-bearing debt decreased to 30.5 billion RMB, and cash and cash equivalents increased to 32.7 billion RMB, marking the first time cash exceeds debt [4] - The company focused its investments in Hangzhou, with land reserves in the city increasing to 70% of total land holdings, enhancing its future growth prospects [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to decline slightly in the following years, with estimates of 68.518 billion RMB in 2025 and 68.050 billion RMB in 2026 [9] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with projections of 3.050 billion RMB in 2025, 3.558 billion RMB in 2026, and 4.037 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.81%, 16.65%, and 13.48% respectively [9][5] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the company is projected to be 10.2x in 2025, 8.7x in 2026, and 7.7x in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically focused on the Hangzhou market, which is characterized by high demand and resilience, positioning it to benefit from future sales and investment opportunities [5] - The company’s land acquisition strategy has led to a significant market share in Hangzhou, with a 37% share in the local land market [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is recognized as a benchmark enterprise for quality housing, demonstrating sustained high-quality growth [6] - The company has a strong market position in Hangzhou, with significant sales performance and a focus on land acquisition in the region [6] - Financial forecasts indicate a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit over the next few years, reflecting operational resilience [5][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 70,443 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 69.7%. However, a decline to 65,708 million is expected in 2025, representing a -5.0% change [5][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 2,546 million in 2024 to 2,810 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 10.4% [5][7] - The company maintains a healthy gross margin of 12.5% in 2024, with expectations for slight improvements in subsequent years [5][6] Sales and Market Position - In 2024, the company achieved sales of 1,116 million, with an average selling price of 47,000 per square meter, significantly higher than the industry average [6] - The company plans to maintain its sales target at around 1,000 million for 2025, aiming to stay within the top 15 nationally [6] - The company has increased its market share in Hangzhou from 25% in 2023 to 38% in 2024, indicating strong competitive positioning [6] Land Acquisition and Debt Management - The company acquired land worth 448 million in 2024, with a focus on the Hangzhou market, which accounted for 97% of total acquisitions [6] - The company has successfully reduced its interest-bearing debt, with a financing cost decreasing to 3.4% [6] - The company plans to further decrease its interest-bearing debt to below 30 billion by 2025, ensuring financial stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Binhai Group reported a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, demonstrating resilience in a challenging real estate market [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 69.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.546 billion yuan, up 0.66% year-on-year - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 2.430 billion yuan, an increase of 1.19% year-on-year - Basic earnings per share stood at 0.82 yuan [2]. Industry Context - National real estate development investment in 2024 was 10,028 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year - Residential investment reached 7,604 billion yuan, a decline of 10.5% - New housing starts fell by 23.0%, with a total area of 73,893 million square meters - Sales of new commercial housing decreased by 12.9%, with residential sales down 14.1% [2]. Sales Performance - Binhai Group achieved sales of 111.63 billion yuan, ranking 9th in the industry according to CRIC, improving by 2 positions from 2023 - The company is the only private real estate enterprise in the top 10 and has been the sales champion in Hangzhou for seven consecutive years [2][3]. Project Delivery - In 2024, Binhai Group delivered a total of 52 projects, including 32 in Hangzhou and 20 in other cities, marking a historical high in delivery numbers [3]. Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing liabilities were 30.5 billion yuan, down 5.5 billion yuan from the beginning of the year - The balance of monetary funds was 32.7 billion yuan, an increase of 10.47% - The average financing cost decreased to 3.4%, the largest drop in recent years [4]. Land Acquisition - Binhai Group acquired 23 plots of land in 2024, with a total investment of 44.85 billion yuan and a rights investment of 21.935 billion yuan - The company maintained a market share of 37% in land acquisition in Hangzhou, leading the market [4]. Future Strategy - For 2025, Binhai Group aims for sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, targeting to rank within the top 15 nationally - The company will continue to focus on its core real estate business while expanding into five additional sectors: services, leasing, hotels, elderly care, and industrial investment [6].

Group 1 - Binjiang Group (002244.SZ) released its 2024 annual report on April 26, 2025, indicating that as of April 25, 2025, 285 institutional investors disclosed holding A-shares of Binjiang Group, totaling 1.885 billion shares, which accounts for 60.58% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Hangzhou Binjiang Investment Holding Co., Ltd., Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Fortune Tianhui Selected Growth Mixed Securities Investment Fund (LOF), and several funds managed by Zhuhai Abama Asset Management, with the top ten investors holding a combined 53.39% of the shares [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, six funds increased their holdings compared to the previous period, including Xinhua Pan Resources Advantage Mixed Fund and Rongtong Industry Prosperity Mixed A/B, with the increase in holdings slightly rising [2] - Conversely, 40 public funds reduced their holdings compared to the previous quarter, with a reduction rate of 1.36%, including Southern CSI All Share Real Estate ETF and several other mixed funds [2] - A total of 218 new public funds were disclosed this period, including Southern CSI 500 ETF and Hai Futong Reform Driven Mixed Fund, while 37 funds were not disclosed compared to the previous quarter [2]

Core Viewpoint - Binjiang Group announced a cash dividend plan for 2024, proposing a distribution of 0.82 yuan per share (including tax), totaling 255 million yuan, which represents 10.02% of the company's net profit, marking the 17th cash distribution since its listing [2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 69.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%, while net profit reached 2.546 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.66%. The basic earnings per share were 0.82 yuan, and the weighted average return on equity was 9.63% [2]. Dividend History - The company has a history of cash distributions since its listing, with the following notable distributions: - 2024: 0.82 yuan per share, 255 million yuan total, 0.98% dividend yield - 2023: 0.90 yuan per share, 280 million yuan total, 0.95% dividend yield - 2022: 2.50 yuan per share, 778 million yuan total, 2.91% dividend yield - 2021: 2.26 yuan per share, 703 million yuan total, 5.12% dividend yield [2]. Market Position - Among the 28 companies in the real estate sector that announced their 2024 dividend plans, Binjiang Group's cash distribution of 255 million yuan ranks lower compared to its peers, with China Merchants Shekou leading at 1.9353 yuan per share and a total of 1.74993 billion yuan [4].