Summary of NAURA (002371.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NAURA (002371.SZ) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment (SPE) - **Rating**: Buy Key Points Industry Dynamics - NAURA is positioned to benefit from increased semiconductor capital expenditure (Capex) in China, projected to grow by 5% YoY to US$40 billion in 2025 and US$42 billion in 2026 [1][2] - Rising demand for local semiconductor equipment is driven by increased cloud Capex spending from Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) focusing on AI applications [2] Financial Performance - Earnings have been revised upwards by 2% and 3% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, due to higher revenues from etching and deposition tool shipments [3] - Gross margin (GM) is expected to decrease slightly by 0.1 percentage points in 2026 and 2027 due to product mix changes, while operational efficiency improvements are expected to reduce the operating expense (Opex) ratio by 0.2 percentage points [3] Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb39.34 billion, Rmb51.28 billion, and Rmb61.63 billion, respectively, reflecting a growth of 1% and 2% from previous estimates [4] - Net income is projected to increase to Rmb10.54 billion in 2026 and Rmb12.09 billion in 2027, marking a 2% and 3% increase from prior estimates [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for NAURA has been revised to Rmb561, based on a 38.4x P/E ratio for 2026, up from Rmb492 previously [6][14] - The target P/E is derived from a regression analysis of global SPEs' P/E ratios and forward earnings growth [6][14] Risks - Key downside risks include potential US export restrictions on Chinese semiconductor firms, which could hinder capacity expansion and reduce demand for NAURA's equipment [15] - Slower-than-expected capacity expansion at NAURA's mature node customers may lead to slower revenue growth than anticipated [15] Additional Insights - The company is expanding its product offerings, including new manufacturing capacities for advanced nodes to meet the demand for AI chipsets in China [2] - The localization trend in China is evident, with major telecom companies like China Mobile and China Unicom announcing new AI computing projects utilizing local chipsets [2] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding NAURA's market position, financial outlook, and associated risks, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.

Summary of Huawei's AI Roadmap and Implications for the Semiconductor Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the **semiconductor industry** in China, particularly regarding **Huawei's AI ambitions** and its impact on the local semiconductor ecosystem [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Huawei's AI Roadmap - Huawei unveiled its AI roadmap on **September 18, 2025**, which includes: - Next-generation **Ascend AI chip roadmap** - Open-source **UnifiedBus (UB) protocol** for connecting numerous chips in a **SuperPoD** - Development of the most powerful **SuperPoDs and SuperClusters** globally [1]. - The roadmap indicates a need for **16 times more chips**, which is expected to be inflationary for **Foundry/WFE** and benefits the entire semiconductor value chain [1]. Confidence in Local Foundry Supply - Huawei's public articulation of its AI roadmap signals confidence in the resilience of its local foundry supply, contrasting its previous cautious approach post-U.S. sanctions [2]. - The company appears to have secured reliable manufacturing capabilities, marking a significant milestone in building a robust local semiconductor ecosystem [2]. Demand for Advanced Logic Capacity - The ambitious scale of Huawei's AI SuperPoDs and SuperClusters indicates a **surge in demand** for local advanced logic capacity [3]. - Huawei's **Ascend 950 chip** has only **6%** of the performance of Nvidia's **VR200**, but through innovative networking protocols, Huawei can deploy **114 times more chips** than Nvidia in a single SuperPoD, achieving **6.8 times higher total computing power** [3]. Positive Impacts on Local Semiconductor Companies - The developments are positive for the entire local AI supply chain, benefiting: - **Foundries** like **SMIC**, which is expanding its **7nm capacity** to support Huawei's production [4]. - **Semicap vendors** such as **NAURA**, **AMEC**, and **Piotech**, which are expected to see substantial benefits from capacity expansion plans [4]. - **Hygon**, a leading domestic x86 server CPU provider, may face increased competition from Huawei but remains a necessary alternative [4]. Investment Implications - **SMIC** is rated **Outperform** with a price target of **HKD 30** for H-shares and **CNY 110** for A-shares, based on a valuation of **1.5x NTM P/B multiple** [6]. - **Hua Hong** is also rated **Outperform** with a price target of **HKD 60** for H-shares and **CNY 85** for A-shares, driven by its acquisition of Fab 5 [7]. - **NAURA**, **AMEC**, and **Piotech** are rated **Outperform**, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution in China [8][9][10]. - **Hygon** is rated **Outperform** with a price target of **CNY 220**, leveraging its AI accelerator for growth [11]. - **Cambricon**, while a leading AI accelerator ASIC chip provider, is rated **Market-Perform** due to high valuation concerns [12]. Additional Important Insights - The local AI production capacity is projected to **triple by 2026**, indicating strong capital expenditure trends in China [3]. - The developments create a **virtuous cycle of innovation and investment** that will strengthen China's AI ecosystem for years to come [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from Huawei's AI roadmap and its implications for the semiconductor industry, highlighting the potential for growth and investment opportunities within the local ecosystem.

Group 1 - The semiconductor ETF Southern (159325) opened with a slight decline of 0.06%, priced at 1.586 yuan [1] - Key holdings in the ETF showed mixed performance, with SMIC down 1.47%, Northern Huachuang up 1.88%, and other notable movements including Huagong Information unchanged, Cambrian down 0.34%, and Zhaoyi Innovation down 0.40% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Semiconductor Industry Select Index return, managed by Southern Fund Management Co., with a return of 58.40% since its inception on October 31, 2024, and a monthly return of 19.33% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic semiconductor industry is experiencing positive developments leading to a recent surge in the semiconductor sector, with significant capital inflow into related ETFs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 24, the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (561980) saw a net inflow of 290 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 610 million yuan over the past five days [1]. - The ETF reached a new high with an 8.67% increase on the same day, marking a year-to-date index increase of 64.36%, leading among major semiconductor theme indices in A-shares [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The semiconductor sector is witnessing strong performance driven by capital concentration in upstream equipment, components, and materials, influenced by a "catch-up" demand and recent price hikes in upstream materials like silicon wafers [2][3]. - The global semiconductor equipment shipment value reached 33.07 billion USD in Q2 2025, a 24% year-on-year increase, with China's semiconductor equipment sales at 11.36 billion USD, marking an 11% quarter-on-quarter growth and capturing over one-third of the global market share [3]. Group 3: AI Demand and Innovation - The rapid development of AI has led to a surge in demand for semiconductor equipment and materials, with major domestic tech companies announcing significant investments in AI infrastructure [5][6]. - The demand for AI servers, high-performance computing (HPC), and advanced packaging is driving the need for core equipment such as etching and thin-film deposition tools, as well as materials for semiconductor packaging [6][7]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI Semiconductor Index, characterized by a high concentration of component stocks, with the top five stocks accounting for nearly 59% of the total weight [7][8]. - The index focuses on upstream and midstream equipment, materials, and design, which collectively account for about 90% of the index, indicating significant potential for domestic innovation and market support [8][10].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index surging over 5%, reaching a nearly four-year high [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64 points, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8% to 13356.14 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 234.75 billion yuan [1] Semiconductor and Chip Sector - The semiconductor sector saw a strong performance, with the overall sector rising 4.6%, ranking first among industry sectors [2] - The storage chip concept also performed well, with a 4.18% increase, ranking fourth among industry concepts [2] - Notable individual stocks included ShenGong Co., Jiangfeng Electronics, and Xingfu Electronics, which hit the daily limit up [2] - The introduction of new lithography equipment by Shengmei Shanghai is expected to enhance semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [2] Memory Products Price Increase - Samsung has significantly raised prices for its DRAM and NAND flash products, with some products seeing price increases of up to 30% [3] - Other major players like SanDisk and Micron have also adjusted their pricing, indicating a trend of rising memory product prices [3] - The demand for enterprise-level SSDs is expected to increase, benefiting companies with strong pricing power in this segment [3] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery concept saw a notable rise, with the sector increasing by 2.51% [4] - Key individual stocks in this sector included HaiMuxing and JiaoCheng Ultrasound, which experienced significant gains [4] - The Chinese government is promoting the development of high-safety battery storage systems, which is expected to drive advancements in solid-state battery technology [4][5] - Full solid-state batteries are anticipated to achieve partial mass production by 2027, with several automotive manufacturers planning to test these technologies [5][6] Brokerage and Financial Technology Sector - The brokerage and financial technology sectors showed positive movement, with stocks like Xiangcai Co. hitting the daily limit up [7] - The financial sector has seen adjustments recently, but the market remains active, with expectations for continued inflows of institutional and retail funds [7] - Analysts are optimistic about the profitability and valuation of the brokerage sector, anticipating further growth in Q3 earnings [7]

Group 1 - Northern Huachuang's stock reached the daily limit with a turnover rate of 2.59% and a transaction amount of 8.299 billion yuan, showing a fluctuation of 9.74% [1] - Institutional net buying amounted to 143 million yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect saw a net selling of 446 million yuan [2] - The top five trading departments had a total transaction of 4.024 billion yuan, with a net selling of 86.62 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The stock's main capital inflow was 1.215 billion yuan, with a large single net inflow of 1.534 billion yuan and a net outflow of 318 million yuan from large orders [2] - The latest margin trading balance was 2.464 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 2.444 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 19.696 million yuan [2] - Over the past five days, the financing balance decreased by 61.42 million yuan, a decline of 2.45%, while the securities lending balance increased by 584,000 yuan, an increase of 3.06% [2]

所属行业来看，上述特大单净流入资金居前个股中，电子、电力设备、计算机行业最为集中，上榜个股 分别有22只、9只、8只。（数据宝） 特大单净流入资金排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价（元） | 涨跌幅（%） | 特大单净流入（亿元） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002371 | 北方华创 | 460.68 | 10.00 | 15.34 | 电子 | | 002156 | 通富微电 | 37.72 | 10.00 | 14.66 | 电子 | | 688981 | 中芯国际 | 134.98 | 5.03 | 14.56 | 电子 | | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 379.93 | 3.20 | 13.58 | 电力设备 | | 300274 | 阳光电源 | 154.20 | 7.43 | 12.69 | 电力设备 | | 600126 | 杭钢股份 | 10.43 | 10.02 | 12.04 | 钢铁 | | 000021 | 深科技 | 25.00 | 9.99 | 10.03 | 电子 | | 002230 | 科大讯飞 | ...

Market Overview - On September 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 2.28% [2] - A total of 51 stocks appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" due to significant trading activity, with a net inflow of funds amounting to 5.15 billion yuan into Tongfu Microelectronics (002156.SZ) [2][4] Key Stocks - Tongfu Microelectronics saw the highest net buying amounting to 514.93 million yuan, representing 14.54% of its total trading volume, and its stock price increased by 10% with a turnover rate of 6.3% [4][6] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Kaimete Gas (002549.SZ), which experienced a net selling of 196.54 million yuan, accounting for 3.23% of its total trading volume, while its stock price rose by 3.86% [5][10] Institutional Activity - Institutions were active in 23 stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List, with a total net selling of 74.69 million yuan. Specifically, institutions net bought 12 stocks and net sold 11 stocks [6][12] - The stock with the highest net institutional buying was Huicheng Co., Ltd. (688403.SH), which rose by 15.84% and had a turnover rate of 10.08% [6][7] Northbound Capital - Northbound capital participated in 24 stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List, with a total net outflow of 505 million yuan. The Shanghai Stock Connect saw a net buying of 6 stocks and a net selling of 3 stocks, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a net buying of 5 stocks and a net selling of 10 stocks [10][12] - The stock with the highest net buying from northbound capital was Heertai (002402.SZ), with a net inflow of 325 million yuan, representing 2.21% of its total trading volume [10][13] Summary of Institutional and Northbound Capital Actions - Both institutions and northbound capital jointly net bought Heertai and Enjie Co., Ltd. while jointly net sold Deep Technology, Kaimete Gas, and others [12][13] - There were divergences in actions for stocks like Wanma Co., Ltd. and North China Innovation, where institutions sold while northbound capital bought [12][13]

Market Overview - On September 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.28%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.33 trillion yuan, with over 4,400 stocks rising across the market [1]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor, photolithography, and energy metal sectors experienced significant gains, while the tourism sector saw the largest declines [1]. Focus Stocks - The entire chip industry chain saw a surge, with notable performances from Huasoft Technology (4 consecutive gains), Sunflower (20% increase for 3 consecutive days), and Changchuan Technology (20% increase for 2 consecutive days) [3]. - The robotics concept stocks were also active, with Hongdou Co. achieving 5 gains in 4 days, Lianmei Holdings with 3 consecutive gains, and Yingfeng Co. with 2 consecutive gains [3]. Key Stock Data - Notable stocks included: - Sunflower (20.03% increase, price 8.57 yuan) with plans to acquire semiconductor assets [4] - Shenkong Fanfang (20.01% increase, price 44.51 yuan) focusing on large-diameter silicon materials [4] - Shangwei New Materials (20% increase, price 110.08 yuan) involved in strategic asset transfers [4] - United Chemical (20% increase, price 104.40 yuan) specializing in photolithography and material etching [4] - Jiangfeng Shenzi (20% increase, price 98.82 yuan) recognized as a leader in target materials [4] Trading Dynamics - The top net buying stocks on the day included Tongfu Microelectronics, Hongdou Co., and Enjie Co., with net purchases of 515 million yuan, 273 million yuan, and 252 million yuan respectively [5]. - The top net selling stocks included Kaimeite Gas, Changchuan Technology, and Heertai, with net sales of 197 million yuan, 193 million yuan, and 158 million yuan respectively [6]. Institutional Activity - Institutional net buying was significant in stocks like Huicheng Co. (+15.84%), Northern Huachuang (+10%), and Lixing Co. (+14.78%) [8]. - Conversely, stocks like Changchuan Technology and Kaimeite Gas saw substantial net selling from institutions [9]. Summary of Key Stocks - Tongfu Microelectronics closed at 37.72 yuan, with a 10% increase and a trading volume of 35.43 billion yuan [10]. - Hongdou Co. closed at 3.83 yuan, with a 10.06% increase and a trading volume of 9.66 billion yuan [11]. - Enjie Co. closed at 44.59 yuan, with a 9.99% increase and a trading volume of 16.47 billion yuan [13].

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector in China's A-shares has shown strong performance, with a daily increase of 4.39% and a cumulative weekly rise of over 8%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - Several stocks, including ShenGong Co., Jiangfeng Electronics, and Changchuan Technology, reached their daily price limits, with some recording approximately 20% gains [1] - The positive performance of the semiconductor sector is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including supportive government policies and increased demand and capital investment in the industry [1] Group 2 - Alibaba's CEO announced a three-year plan to invest 380 billion yuan in artificial intelligence infrastructure, indicating significant capital commitment to the AI sector [1] - The overall performance of major A-share indices was positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.28% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 23.268 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1.676 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2]