Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to achieve a year-on-year profit increase of 161% in Q2 2024, driven by stable costs and rising aluminum prices [1][4] - The company anticipates a significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 20.7 billion yuan, representing a 103% increase year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the company's integrated operations and cost advantages due to low energy prices in Xinjiang, which are expected to enhance profitability [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, Tianshan Aluminum expects a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 160.8% increase year-on-year and an 87.6% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by approximately 7% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by about 26% [5] - The company projects revenues of 337 billion yuan, 354 billion yuan, and 384 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 42.4 billion yuan, 45.3 billion yuan, and 48.7 billion yuan [5][7] Growth Potential - Tianshan Aluminum has multiple ongoing projects, including a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and alumina projects in Indonesia and Guinea, indicating strong growth potential [5][6] - The company is expected to benefit from advanced manufacturing tax incentives and potential government subsidies, which may further enhance its financial performance [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to see significant growth in its H1 2024 performance, benefiting from rising aluminum prices and stable costs. The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.07 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 103% [5][8] - The company is actively pursuing an integrated industrial chain strategy, with ongoing projects such as a 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, which is expected to enhance cost advantages [6][8] Summary by Sections Basic Data - Current stock price is 8.71 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 40.5 billion yuan and total share capital of 4,652 million shares [1][2] Performance Forecast - For H1 2024, the average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by approximately 7% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by about 26%. The production costs for both aluminum ingots and alumina remained stable compared to the previous year [5] - The average price of A00 aluminum in the Chinese market for H1 2024 was 19,781 yuan per ton, up 6.99% year-on-year, and the average price of alumina was 3,505 yuan per ton, up 12.76% year-on-year [5] Production Goals - The company's main production targets for 2024 include: - Primary aluminum output of 1.16 million tons - Power generation of 13 billion kWh - Alumina output of 2.35 million tons - Pre-baked anode output of 550,000 tons - Bauxite output of 3 million tons - High-purity aluminum output of 25,000 tons - Aluminum foil and aluminum foil blank output of 100,000 tons [5] Project Developments - The alumina project in Indonesia is progressing smoothly, with the first phase targeting an annual capacity of 1 million tons. The project has been included in Indonesia's national strategic project list and is currently in the design phase [6] - The company is also seeking to realize a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity indicator that has yet to be constructed [7] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for Tianshan Aluminum from 2024 to 2026 are 33.07 billion yuan, 35.27 billion yuan, and 38.50 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.21 billion yuan, 4.77 billion yuan, and 5.26 billion yuan for the same period. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.6, 8.5, and 7.7 times for the respective years [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 2.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 103% [4] - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the rise in alumina and electrolytic aluminum prices, along with stable production costs [5] - The average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by approximately 7% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by about 26% [5] - The report highlights the company's ongoing investment in a 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, which is expected to enhance cost advantages through integrated operations [6][7] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 33.07 billion yuan, 35.27 billion yuan, and 38.50 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 4.21 billion yuan, 4.77 billion yuan, and 5.26 billion yuan for the same years [8][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.6, 8.5, and 7.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] Production Goals - The company's production targets for 2024 include 1.16 million tons of primary aluminum, 13 billion kWh of electricity, 2.35 million tons of alumina, and 550,000 tons of prebaked anodes [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" with a target price of 12.98 CNY per share, indicating a strong expectation for the stock to outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tianshan Aluminum is expected to see a significant increase in net profit, with a forecasted quarter-on-quarter growth of 88% in Q2 2024, driven by rising aluminum and alumina prices [1][3]. - The average aluminum price increased by 8% to 20,647 CNY per ton, while the alumina price rose by 8% to 3,633 CNY per ton, contributing to the improved performance of the electrolytic aluminum and alumina segments [1]. - The company plans to enhance the proportion of renewable energy in its electricity purchases and is actively seeking to implement compliance capacity indicators for 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum that have not yet been constructed [1][3]. Financial Summary - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for Tianshan Aluminum from 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 0.93, 0.96, and 0.98 CNY respectively, reflecting a stable low-cost advantage and improved resource security [1][3]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase from 28,975 million CNY in 2023 to 38,503 million CNY in 2024, representing a growth rate of 32.9% [4]. - The net profit is forecasted to rise from 2,206 million CNY in 2023 to 4,312 million CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 95.5% [4][5]. Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.40 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 8.85 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2024, reflecting enhanced profitability [4][5]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 60.0% in 2023 to 54.7% in 2025, indicating improved financial stability [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianshan Aluminum, with a target price of 9.98 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [1]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's performance in the first half of 2024 exceeded expectations, driven by rising prices of aluminum ingots and alumina. The company achieved a net profit of 2.07 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 103%, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.96 billion CNY, up 168% [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 is projected to show significant growth, with an expected net profit of 1.35 billion CNY, representing a 161% year-on-year increase and an 88% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The increase in profits is attributed to a 7% rise in the average selling price of self-produced aluminum ingots and a 26% increase in alumina prices compared to the previous year [1]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, which will support Tianshan Aluminum's profitability [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 28.975 billion CNY, with a slight increase to 30.182 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [2]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 4.219 billion CNY, a significant increase of 91.3% compared to 2023 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.47 CNY in 2023 to 0.91 CNY in 2024 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17 in 2023 to 9 in 2024, indicating improved valuation metrics [2].

Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 207 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a 103% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 196 million yuan, a 168% increase year-on-year [2]. - Basic earnings per share are estimated at 0.45 yuan, up from 0.22 yuan in the same period last year [2]. Sales and Pricing - The average selling price of self-produced aluminum ingots increased by approximately 7% compared to the same period last year [3]. - The average selling price of alumina rose by about 26% year-on-year [3]. - The significant growth in performance is attributed to the improved sales prices and stable production costs in the electrolytic aluminum and alumina segments [3]. Cost and Stability - The production costs for aluminum ingots and alumina remained stable compared to the previous year [3]. Forecast and Risks - The financial data provided is a preliminary estimate and will be finalized in the company's 2024 semi-annual report [4]. - Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks related to the preliminary nature of the earnings forecast [4].

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2024-043 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 1 月 23 日分别 召开第六届董事会第六次会议和第六届监事会第五次会议，审议通过了《关于以 集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的议案》，根据相关法律法规及《公司章程》 的规定，本次回购股份方案属于董事会审批权限范围，无需提交股东大会审议。 公司使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司发行在外的部分 A 股普通股股 票，本次用于回购股份的资金总额不低于人民币 10,000 万元（含），不超过人民 币 20,000 万元（含）；在本次回购股份价格不超过 8.6 元/股（含）的条件下，按 照本次回购资金总额上限测算预计可回购股份总数约为 2,325.58 万股，约占公司 当前总股本的 0.50%，按照本次回购资金总额下限测算预计可回购股份总数约为 1,162.79 万股，约占公司当前总股本的 0.25%，具体以公司公告回购方案实施完 毕之日 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is enhancing its integrated supply chain by securing upstream bauxite mining rights in Indonesia, which will supply its planned 2 million tons alumina project, ensuring stable and low-cost bauxite supply [5][6] - The company has signed strategic agreements for bauxite projects in Indonesia and Guinea, strengthening its resource security and cost advantages for alumina production [6] - The company is experiencing a decline in costs due to its strategic resource acquisitions and location advantages, leading to lower electricity and carbon costs compared to industry averages [6] - The company is gradually ramping up production across multiple product lines, which is expected to drive profit growth, with a projected EPS of 0.72, 0.80, and 0.93 for 2024-2026 [6][9] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, demonstrating confidence in its future growth, with a total buyback fund of RMB 100-200 million [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to recover from RMB 28,975 million in 2023 to RMB 32,953 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [7][9] - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 2,205 million in 2023 to RMB 3,332 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.1% [7][9] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 17.2% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [7][9] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 57,097 million in 2023 to RMB 70,308 million in 2024 [10]

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2024-042 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于公司对全资子公司、全资孙公司提供担保以及全资子公 司对全资孙公司提供担保的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示：公司本次对下属全资孙公司上海辛然实业有限公司提供担保，属 于对资产负债率超过 70%的对象提供担保。敬请投资者充分关注担保风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保情况 根据公司业务的发展和生产经营的需要，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"天山铝业"、 "公司"或"本公司"）为恒丰银行股份有限公司上海分行（以 下简称"恒丰银行上海分行"）对本公司全资孙公司上海辛然实业有限公司（以 下简称"上海辛然"）享有的 1 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额保证担保；公司为 中国民生银行股份有限公司乌鲁木齐分行（以下简称"民生银行乌鲁木齐分行"） 对本公司全资子公司新疆生产建设兵团第八师天山铝业有限公司（以下简称"天 铝有限"）享有的 12 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额保证担保；公司为中国进出 口银行新疆分行（以下简称"进出口银行新疆分行"）对本公 ...

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2024-041 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 1 / 2 截至 2024 年 5 月 31 日，公司通过回购专用证券账户以集中竞价方式累计回 购公司股份 1292.59 万股，占公司总股本的 0.28%，最高成交价为 7.1 元/股，最 低成交价为 4.86 元/股，已使用资金总额为 8203.09 万元（不含交易费用）。本次 回购符合相关法律法规的要求，符合既定的回购方案。 二、其他说明 （一）公司回购股份的时间、数量、价格、方式及资金来源等符合既定的回 购方案和回购报告书的内容与要求，符合相关法律法规规定。 （二）公司回购股份的时间、数量及集中竞价交易的委托时段符合《上市公 司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》 的相关规定，具体情况如下： 1、公司未在下列期间回购股份： （1）自可能对本公司证券及其衍生品种交易价格产生重大影响的重大事项 发生之日或者在决策过程中，至依法披露之日内； 天山铝业集团 ...