丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨森马服饰（002563.SZ） [Table_Title] 森马服饰 2024 年年报点评：零售改革叠加净拓 店下收入韧性显著好于同业，业绩符合预期 报告要点 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 展望未来，公司夯实基础，全域化、控折扣、降库存均取得成效。预计短期内受益于生育补贴 政策情绪催化，巴拉终端零售有望受到提振，增益业绩表现，叠加后续新零售改革逐步取得成 效，公司逆势开店有望带来一定的收入和业绩弹性增量。预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 12.8、14.2、15.4 亿元，对应 PE 为 15、13、12X，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 森马服饰（002563.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 森马服饰 2024 2] 年年报点评：零售改革叠加净拓 店下收入韧性显著好于同业，业绩符合预期 [T ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The brand sector shows steady recovery in Q1 under consumer promotion policies, with most companies achieving positive growth, outperforming expectations. The performance varies across sub-sectors, with mid-to-high-end menswear showing strong growth, sports retail maintaining steady growth, and mass brands also experiencing a rebound. Profitability varies due to differentiated cost control and operational leverage [2][4][16] - The manufacturing sector faces short-term pressure as downstream inventory has reached healthy levels, but demand from major export countries is weakening. In Q1, demand from the US and Japan shows marginal weakening. Most brands and retailers have returned to healthy inventory levels, but weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum, affecting order elasticity in the related supply chain [2][4][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Brand Sector - Q1 retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6 percentage points [20] - Mid-to-high-end menswear brands are leading in retail growth, while the sports sector continues to show steady growth. Mass apparel brands are also experiencing a recovery [20][27] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is under short-term pressure due to weak demand from major export markets and healthy inventory levels. The overall order placement is cautious, with expectations of further pressure from tariff forecasts [4][28] Key Company Performance - **Wanjian Medical**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 30%-40%, driven by non-woven products and strong brand power in sanitary napkins [5][40] - **Zhejiang Natural**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 25%-35%, with net profit expected to increase by 50%-100% [5][40] - **Weixing Co.**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% and double-digit net profit growth [5][40] - **Anta Sports**: Expected Q1 revenue growth in the high single digits, with FILA brand showing mid-to-low single-digit growth [6][20] - **361 Degrees**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% for adult apparel and around 15% for children's clothing, with e-commerce growth of about 20% [6][20] Inventory and Demand Trends - The inventory levels of most brands and retailers have returned to a healthy state, with the wholesale inventory destocking nearing completion. However, weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum [4][28]

21世纪经济报道记者朱艺艺杭州报道 在公布2024年成绩单之后，森马服饰（002563.SZ）4月1日收获涨停，4月1日-4月3日累计上涨12.16%。 从营收结构看，以"巴拉巴拉"品牌为代表的儿童服饰营收增长9.55%至102.68亿元，再次突破百亿元大 关，占总营收的70.21%，成为公司业绩增长的主要驱动力；休闲服饰营收增长0.44%至41.90亿元，占总 营收的28.65%。 除了继续发力童装板块，森马服饰也在加码线上和出海布局，寻求业绩新增量。 童装成为增长密码 作为老牌步行街巨头，森马服饰以主打休闲服饰定位的主品牌森马为人熟知。不过，公司最赚钱的业 务，却是以"童装一哥"巴拉巴拉品牌为代表的儿童服饰。 2024年，森马的儿童服饰营收为102.68亿元，占总营收比重的70.21%，且获得9.55%的增速。 拉长时间线来看，童装板块的收入占比几乎稳步提升。 2017年，森马的儿童服饰贡献营收63.22亿元，占公司总收入的52.56%，首次超过休闲服饰的营收占比 （46.85%），开始成为公司业绩增长的核心驱动力。 在此基础上，2018年-2023年，森马服饰的童装板块营收分别为88.25亿元、126. ...

重回净开店周期，加大直营开店。分渠道看，2024 年线上/直营/加盟收入分别同比 +7.14%/+12.64%/+5.12%，收入占比分别为46%/11%/42%。 公司公布2024 年年报：2024 年营收146.26 亿元/yoy+7.06%，归母净利润11.37 亿元/yoy+1.42%，扣非归 母净利润10.84 亿元/yoy+6.16%。单Q4 营收52.27 亿元/yoy+9.76%，归母净利润3.82 亿元/yoy+32.07%， 归母净利润增长快于营收主因资产减值同比减少。年末分红0.35 元/股，全年分红比例82.9%，较2023 年显著提升（2023 年分红比例72.1%）。 童装产品迭代、翻新门店，贡献主要增长，休闲服焕新"新森马"形象。 分产品看，2024 年休闲服/童装收入分别同比+0.4%/+9.6%，收入占比分别为29%/70%。24 年巴拉品牌 对产品线迭代更新，确立日常生活、城市户外和高光时刻三大核心场景产品线，并逐步构建心智商品 群，目前已打造 Bala T、轻羽绒、冲锋衣、防晒服等百万级销量的商品集群，24年翻新扩改门店超500 家。森马品牌聚焦8 大心智产品，爆款产品规 ...

公司发布 2024 年年报，实现营业收入146.3 亿，同比增长7.1%，实现归母净利润11.4 亿，同比增长 1.4%，其中24Q4 收入和归母净利润分别同比增长9.8%和-32.1%，分红率预计为82.9%，维持高分红。 截至2024 年底，公司存货周转天数为173 天，去年同期为190 天。经营活动现金流净额为12.6 亿，去年 同期为19.4 亿。 积极开拓中国香港地区市场及海外市场。2024 年公司在新加坡、马来西亚、越南、蒙古、约旦等多个 市场新开 30 多家门店。截至期末，森马和巴拉巴拉品牌成功进驻全球 15 个国家和地区，中国香港地区 及海外门店数量突破 100 家。 根据年报，我们调整盈利预测并引入2027 年的盈利预测，预计2025-2027 年每股收益分别为0.46、0.53 和0.61 元（原25-26 年0.56 和0.62 元），参考可比公司，给予2025 年17 倍PE 估值，对应目标价7.82 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费复苏不及预期等 24 年两品牌均实现净开店，新森马门店逐步推广。分品类来看，1）休闲服饰： 2024 年收入同比增长0.4%，毛利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.82 CNY for 2025, based on a 17x PE valuation [2][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 14.63 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.14 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 1.4% [8]. - The company plans to continue its high dividend payout, with an expected dividend rate of 82.9% for 2024 [8]. - The company successfully opened new stores under both of its brands, with a net increase of 108 stores in casual wear and 280 stores in children's wear [8]. - The online sales channel saw a gross margin increase, with online sales revenue growing by 7.1% [8]. - The company is actively expanding into international markets, having opened over 30 new stores in countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam [8]. Financial Summary - The company's projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.46 CNY, 0.53 CNY, and 0.61 CNY, respectively [2][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 15.78 billion CNY in 2025 to 18.71 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding profit growth [6]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, with slight improvements expected over the forecast period [6]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to increase from 7.9% in 2025 to 8.7% in 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on brand renewal and store expansion, which is expected to enhance its dividend payout ratio [1] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.137 billion yuan, up 1.42% year-on-year [8] - The company has initiated a net store opening cycle, increasing its direct-operated stores and enhancing its online and franchise revenue channels [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 13.661 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 14.626 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth expected in subsequent years [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 1.122 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.137 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate expected in the following years [1] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 82.9% in 2024, up from 72.1% in 2023, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [8] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on product iteration in children's clothing and the renovation of stores, contributing to revenue growth [8] - The company has established three core product lines for its Bala brand, targeting daily life, urban outdoor, and high-light moments, with significant sales achievements in these categories [8] - The company has expanded its store presence internationally, opening over 30 new stores in markets such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam in 2024 [8] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin slightly decreased to 43.82% in 2024, primarily due to increased discounts in the casual wear category [8] - The company has seen an increase in its expense ratio, with sales expenses rising due to the expansion of direct-operated stores and brand promotion efforts [8] - Inventory turnover days improved, decreasing by 19 days to 136 days, indicating better inventory management [8]

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Performance - The performance of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices over the past year shows a significant decline, with the CSI 300 down by 32% and the ChiNext down by 16% [1]. Industry Performance - The top five performing industries yesterday included textiles and apparel (+1.448%), beauty and personal care (+1.014%), telecommunications (+0.971%), banking (+0.897%), and diversified industries (+0.742%) [1]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing industries were defense and military (-1.17%), non-ferrous metals (-0.866%), utilities (-0.801%), steel (-0.580%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.537%) [1]. Communication Industry - The satellite internet construction in China is gradually taking shape, with significant developments in the commercial aerospace industry [10]. - On April 1, 2025, China successfully launched a satellite for internet technology testing, marking a step towards the integration of satellite and terrestrial networks [12]. - The "Thousand Sails Constellation" plan aims to deploy 648 satellites by the end of 2025 and 1,296 satellites globally by 2027, with a long-term goal of 15,000 satellites by 2030 [13]. Coal Mining Industry - China Jushi (600176.SH) reported a significant increase in Q4 2024 performance, with revenue reaching 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.49% [16]. - The company’s glass fiber yarn sales reached a record high of 3.025 million tons in 2024, driven by structural optimization and market expansion [17]. Real Estate and Construction Industry - China Overseas Development (00688.HK) ranked first in equity sales and land acquisition, with a steady growth in commercial income [21]. - The company reported a revenue of 1,851.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, while its equity sales amounted to 3,107 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [22][23]. Food and Beverage Industry - China Feihe (06186.HK) achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a proposed dividend of 0.3264 HKD per share [27]. - The company’s ultra-high-end product series continues to drive growth, with a focus on expanding its market share in the infant formula sector [28]. Chemical Industry - Shengquan Group (605589.SH) reported a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.87% [37]. - The company is expanding its high-frequency and high-speed resin varieties, indicating a robust growth trajectory [38]. Light Industry - Jiayi Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ) achieved a revenue of 2.836 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, supported by strong customer relationships [31]. - The company’s overseas revenue growth is a significant driver of its overall performance [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 7.06% in 2024, reaching 14.626 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 1.42% to 1.137 billion yuan [1][10] - The "2+N" multi-brand strategy is showing positive results, with the company focusing on enhancing its retail channel management capabilities and expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [3][4][10] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 14.626 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.137 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4% [1][2] - **Gross and Net Margins**: The gross margin for 2024 is forecasted at 43.82%, slightly down by 0.21 percentage points year-on-year. The net margin is expected to be 7.76%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The basic EPS for 2024 is projected to remain at 0.42 yuan, with future estimates of 0.48 yuan in 2025, 0.56 yuan in 2026, and 0.61 yuan in 2027 [1][10] Strategic Initiatives Summary - **Channel Development**: The company is enhancing its retail channel management and focusing on opening high-quality stores, with over 30 new stores planned in various international markets in 2024 [3] - **Brand Strategy**: The company is actively upgrading its brand strategies, particularly for its children's clothing brand, to strengthen its market position and enhance brand influence [4][9] - **Operational Efficiency**: The implementation of a 52-week MD mechanism aims to streamline operations and improve decision-making through advanced digital tools [9]

上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 2025 年 04 月 02 日 森马服饰 (002563) ——促进生育政策催化，经营周期触底开启新一轮增长 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（上调） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 01 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.24 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 7.48/4.34 | | 市净率 | 1.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.14 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15,940 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,348.44/10,503.66 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.39 | | 资产负债率% | 38.08 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,694/2,202 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-01 05-01 06-01 07-01 08-01 09-01 10-01 11-01 12-01 ...