2025 年 03 月 28 日 N 型出货占比持续提升，关注出海进度 —钧达股份（002865.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 钧达股份发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年公司实现营业收入 99.52 亿元，同比下滑 46.66%；实现归母净利润-5.91 亿 元，同比下滑 172.47%。 投资要点 ▌行业下行带来全年亏损，预计 25 年企稳回升 2024Q4 公司实现营业收入 17.5 亿元，实现归母净利润-1.7 亿元，主要是受制于行业处于去产能周期，产业链价格下 行，对公司经营业绩造成不利影响。目前，光伏行业去产能 周期进入后程，光伏行业供需关系逐步改善，产业链各环节 价格逐步提升。行业协会持续强化自律，呼吁光伏企业不得 低于成本销售与投标，防止"内卷式"恶意竞争，促进市场 优胜劣汰，一季度电池片价格已明显上涨，预计光伏行业企 稳回升。 ▌N 型电池出货提升，保持行业领先 公司于 2022 年底率先实现 N 型 TOPCon 电池大规模量产。截 至 2024 年底，公司已拥有 44GW N 型电池产能，2024 年公司 实现电池产品出货 33.74GW，同比增长 12.62%；其中 ...

2025 年 03 月 28 日 N 型出货占比持续提升，关注出海进度 —钧达股份（002865.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 钧达股份发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年公司实现营业收入 99.52 亿元，同比下滑 46.66%；实现归母净利润-5.91 亿 元，同比下滑 172.47%。 ▌海外销售占比增长，关注公司出海节奏 目前海外光伏电池产能较为短缺，海外优质光伏电池产能存 在明显缺口，成为制约海外光伏本土产业链形成和发展的关 键。公司海外销售占比从 2023 年 4.69%大幅增长至 2024 年 的 23.85%，其中，印度、土耳其、欧洲等主要海外市场占有 率行业领先。除电池出口业务市场拓展以外，公司拟进一步 通过产能出海形式，构建海外稀缺电池产能，辐射海外高价 值市场需求，增强公司全球市场电池产品供应能力。 ▌盈利预测 预测公司 2025-2027 年收入分别为 132.32、170.37、204.42 亿元，EPS 分别为 3.87、6.67、8.15 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 14.6、8.4、6.9 倍，我们认为，公司 N 型电池出货行 业领先，出海持续推进，看好公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.95 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 46.66% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -591 million yuan, down 172.47% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's N-type battery shipments increased by 12.62% to 33.74 GW, ranking third globally, with N-type TOPCon battery shipments growing by 50.58% to 30.99 GW, accounting for over 90% of total shipments [2]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas sales increasing from 4.69% in 2023 to 23.85% in 2024, particularly in India, Turkey, and Europe [3]. - Continuous R&D investments have led to improvements in N-type technology, with a 0.5% increase in average mass production conversion efficiency and a 30% reduction in non-silicon costs [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 9.95 billion yuan, a significant decline from 18.66 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit of -591 million yuan compared to a profit of 816 million yuan in 2023 [6][11]. - The gross margin fell to 0.7% in 2024 from 14.7% in 2023, reflecting the pressure on profitability due to declining battery prices [13]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the N-type battery market, with a significant increase in shipments and a strong focus on overseas expansion [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's ability to control costs effectively, which is expected to support future profitability as new overseas production capacities come online [4]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 846 million yuan, 1.34 billion yuan, and 1.87 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 15 for 2025 [6][4]. - The ongoing development of next-generation battery technologies, including TBC and perovskite tandem batteries, positions the company for long-term competitive advantages [4].

Industry Overview - In 2024, global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity increased by 35.9% year-on-year, driven by improved efficiency and reduced costs in solar power generation [2][4]. - The global PV market is experiencing high growth, with emerging markets developing independent value systems and a trend towards localized PV supply chains [3]. Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a battery product shipment of 33.74 GW, a year-on-year increase of 12.62%, with N-type battery shipments reaching 30.99 GW, accounting for over 90% of total shipments and growing by 50.58% [5][6]. - The company's revenue for 2024 was 9.952 billion yuan, with a net loss of 0.591 billion yuan due to industry-wide price declines during the capacity reduction cycle [6]. Technological Advancements - The company improved battery conversion efficiency by over 0.5% and reduced non-silicon costs by approximately 30% through various technical enhancements [6]. - The company is advancing TOPCon battery technology and has achieved a laboratory efficiency of 31% for perovskite tandem batteries, leading the industry [6][10]. Market Expansion - The company's overseas sales ratio increased significantly from 4.69% in 2023 to 23.85% in 2024, with leading market shares in India, Turkey, and Europe [7][9]. - The company plans to establish overseas production capacity and aims for an H-share listing in Hong Kong to support its global expansion strategy [7][15]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the PV industry in 2025, with improved supply-demand balance in the battery segment [8][13]. - The company will focus on enhancing its global sales network and exploring diverse models for overseas production capacity to meet rising demand [13][14].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent developments in the renewable energy sector, particularly focusing on solar energy, wind energy, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cells, highlighting the positive trends and potential investment opportunities in these industries [1][15][43]. New Energy - Shanghai Marine Bureau released the "Shanghai Marine Industry Development Plan (2025-2035)" focusing on offshore renewable energy [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines to promote high-quality development of the renewable energy green power certificate market [1] - Domestic solar power installations in January-February reached 39.47 GW, a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - The export of solar battery components remained stable, with a total export of 47.7 GW in January-February, a decrease of 3% year-on-year [8] Wind Energy - The Shanghai Marine Bureau announced plans to promote deep-sea wind power projects, indicating a strong push for offshore wind energy development [15] - The global wind turbine market saw a total installation of 121.6 GW in 2024, with offshore wind accounting for 11.7 GW [18] - Domestic wind turbine manufacturers are expected to increase their market share overseas, driven by competitive pricing [19] Electric Vehicles & Lithium Batteries - NIO and CATL signed a strategic cooperation agreement to build a comprehensive battery swap network [38] - The sales of electric vehicles in China showed significant growth, with 42.7 million units sold in the first half of March, a year-on-year increase of 41% [28] - BYD launched its new models, Han L and Tang L, with competitive pricing and advanced technology [31] Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Central state-owned enterprises are leading green hydrogen demonstration projects, with a significant increase in project bids [43] - The installation of fuel cell systems in January-February remained stable, with a total installed capacity of 40.84 MW [44]

钧达股份 20250321 摘要 • 全球光伏需求保持高位，尤其受益于新能源车和人工智能发展，光伏作为 低成本发电方式将持续扩张，预计 2025 年行业增速维持在 15%左右，电 池环节供需关系有望改善。 • 海外光伏装机增速高于国内，各国积极构建本土组件产能，但电池环节仍 依赖中国厂商。钧达股份海外销售占比显著提升，2024 年达 24%，预计 2025 年将继续增长。 • 光伏行业经历一年多的去产能周期，中小企业退出，行业集中度提升，供 求关系改善，电池价格回升。预计 2025 年供求环境改善和集中度提升将 推动企业业绩增长。 • N 型技术市场渗透率快速提高，2024 年底已超 60%，预计 2026 年将占 据 80%以上份额，推动光伏技术效率提升和成本下降，加速旧技术淘汰。 • 钧达股份作为 N 型电池龙头，滁州和南京工厂开机率约 80%，N 型产品占 比超 90%，连续两年全球 N 型电池出货量第一，并通过加强非硅成本控制， 积极拓展海外市场。 Q&A 2024 年度光伏行业的变化及公司经营情况如何？ 2024 年全球光伏新增装机同比增长了 35.9%，这一增速出乎很多人的预料。 尽管 2020 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to lead the industry in N-type shipments in 2024, with a forecasted output of 33.7 GW, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, and a significant 90%+ of this being N-type [9] - The company is anticipated to recover in 2025, with a projected operating rate of around 80% and a potential reduction in losses in Q1 2025 [9] - The company is advancing its technology and overseas expansion, with a 5 GW N-type battery project in Oman expected to be operational by 2025 [9] - The report predicts a substantial increase in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected growth rates of 286.14%, 56.78%, and 20.89% respectively [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have total revenue of 9.95 billion yuan, with a net loss of 591.11 million yuan [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of 2.58 yuan in 2024 to a profit of 4.80 yuan in 2025 [1] - The report forecasts a significant recovery in net profit, estimating 1.10 billion yuan in 2025, 1.73 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.08 billion yuan in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a peak of 47% in the fourth quarter [7][8]. - The company is focusing on improving production efficiency and reducing costs, with a target of increasing the average conversion efficiency of TOPCon batteries by over 0.5% this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 18,657 million in 2023, RMB 9,952 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 15,737 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 591 million in 2024 to RMB 1,718 million by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [3][15]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with a target gross margin of 19.6% by 2026 [17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks third in total shipments and first in N-type shipments within the industry, indicating a strong market position [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's overseas expansion plans, particularly the delayed project in Oman, which is expected to commence operations by the end of the year [7][8]. - The recent surge in battery prices due to increased demand is expected to support the company's recovery and profitability in the second half of the year [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a peak of 47% in the fourth quarter [7][8]. - The company’s battery cell shipments reached 33.74 GW, a 13% increase year-on-year, with N-type cells making up 92% of the total shipments [7][8]. - Recent policy changes have led to a surge in demand for battery cells, with prices for certain specifications rising significantly, indicating a potential for breakeven in some product lines [7][8]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue is projected to decline to RMB 9,952 million in 2024, before recovering to RMB 10,531 million in 2025 and RMB 14,914 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, with estimates of RMB 165 million, and further growth to RMB 1,696 million by 2026 [3][15]. - The report notes a significant reduction in operating expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses decreasing by 15%, 25%, 35%, and 11% respectively [7][8]. - The company’s average gross margin for battery cells was RMB 0.001 per watt, with a notable improvement in the fourth quarter to RMB 0.007 per watt [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with ongoing projects in Oman and plans for H-share issuance [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining production efficiency and cost control to navigate the challenging market conditions [7][8]. - The company aims to enhance its production efficiency by over 0.5% this year, which is expected to support the mass production of TBC batteries [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, JunDa Co., Ltd. (002865 CH), with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current closing price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a remarkable 47% in Q4 [7][8]. - The company is focusing on improving production efficiency and reducing costs, with a target of increasing the average conversion efficiency of TOPCon batteries by over 0.5% this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 18,657 million in 2023, RMB 9,952 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 15,737 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 591 million in 2024 to RMB 1,718 million by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [3][15]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with overseas gross margins reaching 9.1% in the second half of last year, compared to -6.2% domestically [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks third in total shipments and first in N-type shipments in the industry, with a total shipment of 33.74 GW last year, a 13% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The report notes that recent policy changes in distributed photovoltaic systems have led to a surge in demand, driving up prices for certain battery types [7][8]. - The company is also working on establishing a factory in Oman, although progress has been slower than expected, with plans to complete the project by the end of the year [7][8].