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“易中天”的“泡沫”炒到2027年了
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-09 23:47
以下文章来源于妙投APP ,作者董必政 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌,为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解,热门赛道产业链梳理 最近,"易中天"又躁动了。 如果说,美股的AI盛宴是在围猎英伟达、谷歌;那么,A股的AI狂欢就集中在两个代号里:一个是 炒芯片的"纪联海"(寒武纪、工业富联、海光信息),另一个则是炒连接的"易中天"(新易盛、中 际旭创、天孚通信)。 中际旭创在11月27日刷新历史高价,天孚通信紧随其后,在12月8日创出新高。截至12月8日,中际 旭创、天孚通信、新易盛的市值分别为6333亿、1842亿和4021亿。 光模块的性能直接决定了数据传输的效率和稳定性。一旦数据传输跟不上,就像高速路上堵了车, 算力再强也白搭。 正因为"算力"与"运力"的搭档,GPU、光模块缺一不可。 但在欢呼声中,资本市场的质疑也没停过。 此前,多少人盯着这个赛道,看到光模块企业有40-60倍、甚至超80倍的PE(市盈率)直呼"泡 沫",毕竟通信行业的历史估值均值常年趴在15-20倍。 也有观点认为,要想支撑这种估值,企业净利润得维持三位数增长,在成熟制造业里,这简直是天 方夜谭。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | ...
ESG动态跟踪月报(2025年11月):碳市场新增行业配额方案落地,国际政策分化下绿色金融保持活跃-20251209
CMS· 2025-12-09 15:08
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient - **Model Name**: Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to allocate carbon quotas based on the deviation of a company's carbon emission intensity from the industry average, incentivizing companies to reduce emissions. - **Model Construction Process**: - The carbon emission intensity deviation (X) is calculated as the difference between a company's unit product carbon emission and the industry average, divided by the industry average: $$ X = \frac{I - BP}{BP} $$ where \( I \) is the company's unit product carbon emission, and \( BP \) is the industry average. - The carbon emission intensity coefficient (α) is determined based on the deviation (X): $$ \alpha = \begin{cases} -3\% & \text{if } X \leq -20\% \\ 15\% \times X & \text{if } -20\% < X \leq 20\% \\ +3\% & \text{if } X > 20\% \end{cases} $$ - The quota amount (A) is calculated as: $$ A = E \times (1 + \alpha) $$ where \( E \) is the company's verified emissions for the year. - **Model Evaluation**: This model ensures that differences in emission control levels among companies are reflected in their quota allocations, providing positive incentives for emission reduction while maintaining overall quota stability.[8][9][11] Model Backtesting Results - **Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient**: - The model's implementation is expected to significantly expand the coverage of the national carbon market, enhancing the price discovery function of carbon prices and reflecting marginal abatement costs more clearly.[12][13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology - **Factor Name**: National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to provide a quantifiable method for voluntary emission reduction projects, converting emission reductions into tradable environmental credits. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The methodology includes three key scenarios: offshore oilfield associated gas recovery, onshore gas field test gas recovery, and onshore oilfield low-gas-volume associated gas recovery. - Each scenario has specific mechanisms for emission reduction, monitoring, and accounting requirements. - For example, the offshore oilfield associated gas recovery scenario involves recovering gas that would otherwise be flared, converting it into usable products, and reducing methane emissions. - **Factor Evaluation**: This methodology provides clear technical specifications and market incentives for methane emission reduction projects in the oil and gas industry, supporting the achievement of methane control targets.[14][15] Factor Backtesting Results - **National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology**: - The implementation of this methodology is expected to lead to the initiation of more associated gas recovery projects, contributing to the achievement of China's dual carbon goals and supporting the green and low-carbon transition of the oil and gas industry.[14][15]
通信行业周观点:AWS Trainium3强化异构生态,DeepSeek V3.2突破开源推理-20251209
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-09 12:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [9]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 3.65% increase in the 49th week of 2025, ranking 3rd among major industries, and a 70.43% increase since the beginning of the year, ranking 2nd [2][4]. - AWS launched the Trainium 3 chip, significantly enhancing performance and energy efficiency, while DeepSeek V3.2 made breakthroughs in inference capabilities and cost reduction for long sequences [2][5][6]. - The collaboration between AWS and NVIDIA is expected to accelerate the integration of self-developed chips with the NVIDIA ecosystem, clarifying the ASIC penetration logic [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication sector's performance in the 49th week of 2025 was a 3.65% increase, with a year-to-date increase of 70.43% [2][4]. - Top gainers in the sector included Tianfu Communication (+25.8%), Tongyu Communication (+23.9%), and Meige Intelligent (+13.7%), while the largest declines were seen in Online and Offline (-11.8%), Data Port (-10.8%), and Kesi Technology (-8.6%) [4]. Technological Developments - AWS's Trainium 3 chip offers a 4.4x performance increase and a 40% improvement in energy efficiency, reducing training costs for clients by up to 50% [5]. - DeepSeek V3.2, the first open-source model to integrate "deep thinking" and "tool invocation," surpassed GPT-5 in inference benchmarks, significantly lowering costs for long sequence tasks [6]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom in the operator category; Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication in optical modules; and AI applications such as Boshi Jie, Heertai, and Tuobang Co. [7].
2025年光学元件零组件行业词条报告
Tou Bao Yan Jiu Yuan· 2025-12-09 12:14
Investment Rating - The report rates the optical components industry with a positive outlook, indicating a robust growth trajectory and significant investment opportunities. Core Insights - The optical components industry is projected to grow from $8.5 billion in 2019 to $15 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.03%. It is expected to further increase from $17.2 billion in 2025 to $26.366 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.27% [4][42][49]. Industry Definition - Optical components are core devices used to alter light paths, control spectra, or complete optoelectronic energy conversion. They include lenses, prisms, gratings, mirrors, filters, optical fibers, lasers, LEDs, photodiodes, and micro-nano diffraction elements. These components are essential for applications in barcode scanning, motion optics, photography, autonomous driving LiDAR, high-end cameras, AR/VR, and more [5][4]. Industry Characteristics - The industry is characterized by high-precision manufacturing, multidisciplinary integration, and a coexistence of customization and small-batch production. The manufacturing process requires extreme precision, often within nanometers, and involves advanced techniques such as ultra-precision diamond turning and ion beam polishing [9][10][11][12]. Development History - The optical components industry has evolved from manual grinding of spherical lenses in the early 1900s to a highly automated and precise manufacturing process today. The industry has transitioned through phases of industrialization, precision, and now to intelligent manufacturing, with significant contributions from countries like Germany, Japan, and China [14][15][16]. Industry Chain Analysis - The optical components industry chain consists of upstream raw material and equipment suppliers, midstream optical component manufacturers, and downstream end-users and system integrators. The industry exhibits a collaborative culture that binds materials, design, manufacturing, and application [17][18]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a healthy differentiation in profits, with upstream materials accounting for over 30% of BOM costs. Leading companies like Schott maintain high gross margins, while some midstream manufacturers face negative margins due to intense competition [19][24][25]. Future Trends - The industry is expected to see a shift towards high-value segments driven by AI and high-speed optical communication. Companies that can integrate technology and respond quickly to market demands will likely gain a competitive edge [61][62][63].
又一CPO龙头“大爆发”,机构狂买
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-09 12:03
Core Insights - The AI computing power sector has seen significant stock price increases, particularly in the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) industry, driven by recent technological advancements and favorable market conditions [1][4][17] - Major companies in the CPO space, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, have experienced substantial stock price surges, indicating strong market interest and investment [8][9] Market Performance - The CPO sector rose by 1.64% today and has increased by 91.25% year-to-date, with a net inflow of 2.552 billion [2] - Other sectors, such as the Fujian Free Trade Zone and PVDF concept, also showed positive performance, but the CPO sector remained the standout [2] Key Drivers - Recent announcements, including the release of OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and advancements in AI chip technology by companies like Amazon, have fueled investor enthusiasm in the CPO sector [4][5] - The U.S. government's decision to allow NVIDIA to sell AI chips to China, with a 25% revenue share, has further stimulated market interest in related stocks [5][7] Company Highlights - Dekeli, a notable player in the CPO industry, has seen its stock price soar, with significant net inflows indicating strong institutional interest [9][11] - The company has a comprehensive technology platform and is a core supplier for major clients like Google and NVIDIA, enhancing its market position [11][12] Future Outlook - The demand for high-speed optical transceivers is expected to surge, with projections indicating a 2.6-fold increase in shipments by 2026, creating opportunities for companies in the laser source segment [7][14] - The AI server and supporting hardware market is anticipated to expand significantly, driven by the increasing computational demands of new AI models [14][15] - Companies with robust technology and production capabilities in the laser source and AI server sectors are likely to benefit from the ongoing growth in the computing power industry [15][17]
一则消息,全线爆发!
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-09 10:54
Core Insights - The reintroduction of NVIDIA's H200 to China is seen as a strategic move that could significantly benefit the AI industry in the country, addressing critical supply chain bottlenecks and enhancing computational capabilities [4][28] - The demand for AI computing power in China is expected to surge, with the number of generative AI models nearly doubling from 197 to 439 by mid-2025, indicating a substantial need for high-end computing resources [5][28] Beneficial Sectors - The core sectors that will benefit from the H200's approval include: 1. CPO (Coherent Photonic Optics) sector, which is projected to see a market size exceeding $2.2 billion by 2025, with Chinese companies holding over 30% market share [11][12] 2. AI cloud computing industry, where major players like Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud are expected to increase their AI server clusters significantly, with NVIDIA's solutions regaining a market share of over 60% [14][15] Performance Metrics - CPO companies have shown impressive quarterly performance, with revenue growth rates of 56.83% for Zhongji Xuchuang and 152.53% for Xinyi Sheng, indicating a robust demand for AI computing infrastructure [16] - In the cloud computing sector, Alibaba Cloud reported a 34% year-on-year revenue increase, highlighting the growing importance of AI as a core growth driver [17] Investment Trends - Institutional investments in the AI computing and cloud sectors have surged, with active equity funds holding approximately 40% of their portfolios in computer, communication, and electronic sectors, marking a five-year peak [19][20] - The AI computing sector has become a focal point for institutional investors, with significant increases in holdings for leading CPO companies and AI server manufacturers [21][22] ETF Growth - The AI-focused ETF (159819) has seen substantial inflows, exceeding 6.8 billion yuan in 2025, making it the largest in its category, while the cloud computing ETF (516510) has also attracted over 300 million yuan [23][26][27] Conclusion - The approval of NVIDIA's H200 for the Chinese market is not merely a technical concession but a strategic interaction that could reshape the global AI industry landscape, providing immediate relief and long-term innovation incentives for China [28][29]
「数据看盘」实力游资集体出逃福建本地股 三家机构激烈博弈德科立
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 10:09
龙虎榜方面,多只福建本地股遭游资抛售,其中海欣食品遭一家一线游资席位(广发证券深圳福华一路)卖出8672万,榕基软件遭两家一线游资席位(国盛 证券宁波桑田路、国泰海通证券上海新闸路)合计卖出1.06亿,红相股份遭一家一线游资席位(国泰海通证券成都北一环路)卖出1.1亿。 从深股通前十大成交个股来看,中际旭创位居首位;胜宏科技和新易盛分居二、三位。 二、板块个股主力大单资金 从板块表现来看,算力硬件、零售、福建等板块涨幅居前,海南、有色金属、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。 | 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流入(亿元) | 主力资金净流入率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 商贸零售 | 8.99 | 2.61 | | 2 | 电力设备 | 5.49 | 1.08 | | 3 | 影视院线 | 0.90 | 0.79 | | 4 | 出版 银行 | -0.36 -0.67 | -1.00 -0.28 | 算力硬件概念股德科立今日20cm涨停,两家机构买入2.91亿,一家机构卖出1.16亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为996.46亿,深股通总成交金额为1199 ...
中际旭创(300308) - 北京中银(苏州)律师事务所关于公司2025年第四次临时股东会之法律意见书
2025-12-09 09:45
北京中银(苏州)律师事务所 关于中际旭创股份有限公司 2025 年第四次临时股东会 之 法律意见书 www.zhongyinlawyer.com 苏州•工业园区•月亮湾路 10 号•慧湖大厦 B 座 1902 室(215123) Room1902,North Wisdom Center,No.10 Moon Bay Rd,Suzhou Industrial Park, Jiangsu Province China Tel:(86512)62766638 Fax:(86512)62766665 二〇二五年十二月 | | | 北京中银(苏州)律师事务所 关于中际旭创股份有限公司 2025 年第四次临时股东会 之法律意见书 致:中际旭创股份有限公司 北京中银(苏州)律师事务所(以下简称"本所")接受中际旭创股份有限 公司(以下简称"公司"或"中际旭创")的委托,指派本所律师列席中际旭创 2025年第四次临时股东会(以下简称"本次股东会"),对本次股东会的相关事 项进行见证并出具法律意见书。 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称"《公司法》")、《中华人民共 和国证券法》(以下简称"《证券法》")、《上市公司股东会 ...
中际旭创(300308) - 2025年第四次临时股东会决议公告
2025-12-09 09:45
证券代码:300308 证券简称:中际旭创 公告编号:2025-112 中际旭创股份有限公司 2025 年第四次临时股东会决议公告 1、会议召开时间: 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整, 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要提示: 1、本次股东会没有否决议案的情况; 2、本次股东会没有涉及变更以往股东会已通过的决议。 一、会议召开和出席情况 (一)会议召开情况 现场会议召开时间:2025 年 12 月 9 日(星期二)下午 14:30,会期半天。 网络投票时间为 2025 年 12 月 9 日;其中,通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网 络投票的具体时间为:2025 年 12 月 9 日上午 9:15-9:25、9:30-11:30,下午 13:00-15:00; 通过深圳证券交易所互联网投票系统进行网络投票的具体时间为 2025 年 12 月 9 日上 午 9:15 至下午 15:00 的任意时间。 2、现场会议地点:江苏省苏州工业园区胜浦路 168 号苏州旭创光电产业园公司会 议室。 3、会议召开方式:本次股东会采取现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式 4、会议召集人:公司董事会 5、 ...
共封装光学(CPO)概念涨1.64%,主力资金净流入56股
截至12月9日收盘,共封装光学(CPO)概念上涨1.64%,位居概念板块涨幅第1,板块内,89股上涨,陕 西华达、德科立等20%涨停,中瓷电子、超声电子等涨停,乾照光电、胜宏科技、腾景科技等涨幅居 前,分别上涨11.40%、10.81%、10.54%。跌幅居前的有通宇通讯、特发信息、中富电路等,分别下跌 8.30%、7.60%、7.09%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 1.64 | 海南自贸区 | -3.33 | | 福建自贸区 | 1.44 | 金属铅 | -3.05 | | PVDF概念 | 1.39 | 金属锌 | -2.82 | | 太赫兹 | 1.14 | 金属铜 | -2.58 | | 乳业 | 1.12 | 天津自贸区 | -2.31 | | 海峡两岸 | 1.04 | 特钢概念 | -2.07 | | 数字水印 | 0.83 | 磷化工 | -2.05 | | 共享单车 | 0.81 | 黄金概念 | -2.02 | | 光刻机 | 0.77 | ...