2026.02. 04 本文字数：885，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财阿驴 2月4日，A股三大指数分化，沪指震荡上行。截至收盘，沪指涨0.85%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，科创综指跌0.98%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 】 | 4102.20c | 34.46 | 0.85% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 100 - 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / | 14156.27c | 29.17 | 0.21% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 1 1 1 V ma | 3311.51c | -13.38 | -0.40% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | VW | 1785.43c | -17.72 | -0.98% | 盘面上，煤炭股掀涨停潮；光伏产业链爆发，太空光伏方向领涨；航空、地产、白酒 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to surpass 4100 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 63.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Key Sectors Coal Sector - The coal sector experienced a surge, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit, including Shaanxi Black Cat and Yanzhou Coal Mining [3] - The increase in energy demand for heating due to severe weather conditions and government efforts to ensure stable energy supply contributed to this surge [3] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector saw a significant rally, with stocks like JinkoSolar and Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - Reports indicated that Elon Musk's team visited several Chinese photovoltaic companies, which sparked interest in the sector [4] AI Industry - The AI industry faced a downturn, with hardware and application stocks declining, including companies like Yili Media and Tiandi Online [5] - The release of an AI legal plugin by Anthropic led to a sell-off in software companies, raising concerns about AI potentially replacing core software business models [5] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed active performance, with stocks such as Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development hitting the daily limit [6] - Research indicated that the focus for 2026 should be on policies related to land supply and housing inventory [6] Institutional Insights Consumption and Economic Outlook - Zheshang Securities emphasized that consumption will be the most important counter-cyclical variable in 2026, suggesting a need for a positive fiscal policy stance [7] - The report highlighted that the market should focus on risk appetite rather than interest rates for the stock market outlook [7] Geopolitical Concerns - Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates warned that the world is nearing a critical point of "capital war" due to escalating geopolitical tensions, asserting that gold remains the safest asset [8] - Despite recent volatility in precious metals, Dalio maintained that gold's status as a safe haven would not change over time [8] Commercial Aerospace Development - CITIC Securities noted that the global commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem building, with significant competition between the U.S. and China [8] - The report highlighted the shift from single technology breakthroughs to comprehensive competition in reusable rocket engineering and satellite manufacturing [8]

沪深两市成交额2.48万亿，较上一个交易日缩量633亿。 2月4日，A股三大指数分化，沪指震荡上行。截至收盘，沪指涨0.85%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，科创综指跌0.98%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅量 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000517 | 荣安地产 | +10.27% | 2.04 | | 600683 | 京投发展 | +10.09% | 6.00 | | 000560 | 我爱我家 | +10.06% | 3.61 | | 600325 | 华发股份 | +9.95% | 4.42 | | 000838 | 财信发展 | +9.92% | 2.66 | | 000042 | 中洲控股 | +7.91% | 9.00 | | 601155 | 新城控股 | +7.62% | 18.08 | | 600791 | 京能量化 | +7.60% | 6.51 | | 001979 | 招商蛇口 | +7.31% | 10.87 | | 600649 | 城投控股 | +6.94% | 5.55 | | 600463 | 空港股份 | +6.7 ...

新能车ETF紧密跟踪中证新能源汽车产业指数，中证新能源汽车产业指数选取50只业务涉及新能源整 车、电机电控、锂电设备、电芯电池、电池材料等新能源汽车产业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映 新能源汽车产业龙头上市公司证券的整体表现。 截至2026年2月4日 14:15，中证新能源汽车产业指数(930997)上涨0.51%，成分股银轮股份上涨10.01%， 亿华通上涨9.47%，盟固利上涨5.91%，富临精工上涨5.87%，宁德时代上涨4.91%。新能车ETF(515700) 上涨0.57%，最新价报2.46元。 消息面上，1月新能源车销量亮眼，造车新势力阵营的零跑汽车、蔚来、理想汽车等主要车企实现销量 同比增长。华为鸿蒙智行成绩亮眼，1月交付量同比增长高达65.6%。 开源证券指出，在购置税减免退坡及梯度以旧换新补贴预计对主流价位段新能源车销量造成较大影响的 背景下，2026年重点看好高端化发展方向。尊界S800连续蝉联超豪华轿车市场冠军，重点推荐国产超 豪华领军车企江淮汽车。其次，问界、极氪9X等车型在高端车市场持续放量，也有望明显增强相关车 企的业绩，看好赛力斯、吉利汽车等后续发展。同时，海外市场将继续成为车 ...

富临精工于2月2日召开董事会，审议通过两项重要投资决议，旨在深化新能源产业布局、强化供应链协同，进一步提升公司在锂电正 极材料领域的综合竞争力。 同日，富临精工董事会亦审议通过了子公司江西升华与贵州大龙汇成新材料有限公司签订《项目投资合作协议》的议案。双方拟共同 投资设立合资公司，并以该公司为主体新建年产50万吨草酸亚铁项目。 合资公司注册资本为3亿元，其中江西升华出资2.7亿元，持股90%；大龙汇成出资0.3亿元，持股10%。该项目预计总投资15亿元，计 划于2026年9月30日前建成投产。根据协议，合资公司生产的全部草酸亚铁产品将由江西升华或其关联方包销。 公司表示，该项目旨在利用铜冶炼废渣生产草酸亚铁，满足公司高压实密度磷酸铁锂前驱体的需求，有利于保障上游原材料资源供应 和成本优化，夯实公司在磷酸铁锂正极材料行业的竞争力。 本次增资完成后，江西升华注册资本将由约18.09亿元增至约28.68亿元。富临精工持股比例由79.5719%降至64.3653%，宁德时代持股 比例由18.7387%提升至33%。江西升华仍为富临精工控股子公司，不会导致公司合并报表范围发生变化。 此次交易构成关联交易，因宁德时代此前 ...

消息面上，东吴证券表示，锂价上涨反噬中低端需求，宁德时代受冲击较小。根据该行测算，国内中等 储能项目，电芯价格上涨2-3分/wh，IRR下降1pct，当前电芯价格对应IRR下降4pct，低收益率项目开始 延期，而宁德时代电池更多应用高收益率项目和海外市场。动力端，宁德在高端车型中占比更高，成本 敏感性低，因此需求冲击有限，该行仍预期公司今年排产1.1TWh，同比增50%，出货量900GWh。 宁德时代（300750）(03750)午后涨近5%，截至发稿，涨4.86%，报505港元，成交额9.69亿港元。 摩根士丹利此前指出，预期宁德时代股价将在未来15天内相对于行业平均水平上涨，机率约70%至 80%。大摩指，宁德时代近期股价已出现回调，使短期估值更具吸引力。该行认为市场过度担忧成本通 胀对公司利润率的压力，而这些成本终将转嫁出去。宁德时代在前次锂价上行周期中已证明其成本转嫁 能力，并预期其锂矿将于短期内恢复生产。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a significant growth wave in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological iterations, leading to a spiral growth pattern of "increased volume and price + technological leap" [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - By 2025, global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2297 GWh, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is anticipated to reach 70%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in the effective production capacity of battery cells and various materials, making supply chain stability and efficiency crucial for capitalizing on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on two main topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, and B2B procurement matchmaking to connect top battery manufacturers and material suppliers [6]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The conference will feature specialized sessions on lithium carbonate futures, market volatility responses from lithium battery companies, and the potential of global lithium resources in 2026 [7][8]. - Notable participants include leading battery companies like CATL and BYD, as well as material suppliers covering the entire supply chain, including positive and negative materials, electrolytes, and separators [6].

Core Viewpoint - CATL's stock price has shown resilience amidst rising lithium prices, with a projected increase in production and sales for the year [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CATL's stock rose nearly 5%, reaching HKD 505, with a trading volume of HKD 969 million [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts a 70% to 80% chance that CATL's stock will outperform the industry average in the next 15 days [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Dongwu Securities indicates that the rise in lithium prices has impacted mid-to-low-end demand, but CATL is less affected due to its focus on high-yield projects and overseas markets [1] - The firm estimates that the price of battery cells for medium storage projects has increased by 2-3 cents/wh, leading to a 1 percentage point decline in IRR [1] Group 3: Production and Sales Forecast - CATL is expected to produce 1.1 TWh this year, a 50% year-on-year increase, with a shipment volume of 900 GWh [1] - The company has demonstrated its ability to pass on costs during previous lithium price upcycles, and it is anticipated that lithium production will resume shortly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2297 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is projected to be as high as 70%, driven by dual domestic and international demand [5]. - There exists a notable supply gap in battery cells and various materials, necessitating a focus on ensuring a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on two main topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, and B2B procurement matchmaking to connect top battery manufacturers and material suppliers [6]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The conference will feature specialized sessions on lithium carbonate futures, market volatility responses from lithium battery companies, and the potential of global lithium resources [7][8]. - Notable participants include leading battery companies like CATL and BYD, as well as material suppliers covering the entire supply chain, including cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, and separators [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Strategic Insights - The lithium battery industry is expected to play a crucial role in energy transition and carbon neutrality goals as it enters a new planning phase [6]. - The summit aims to provide authoritative data releases, benchmark company rankings, and deep industry connections to facilitate high-quality development in the lithium battery sector [6].

宁德时代成交额达100亿元，现涨3.10%。 ...