【长江电新】20260226-锂电推荐更新：资源涨价担忧过度，优选中期盈利改善和新技术 1、今日锂电板块调整较多，主要受津巴布韦暂停锂精矿出口引发碳酸锂价格大涨影响，市场担心需求和涨价预期 受到冲击，从基本面分析来看，需求层面经济性敏感的是国内大储，根据我们前期测算，锂价15-20万开始进入到 国内大储经济性承压区间，但与1月碳酸锂涨超18万不同的是，全国容量电价政策落地有望带动国央企入局，对收 益率接受能力相对较高；且随着大电 【长江电新】20260226-锂电推荐更新：资源涨价担忧过度，优选中期盈利改善和新技术 1、今日锂电板块调整较多，主要受津巴布韦暂停锂精矿出口引发碳酸锂价格大涨影响，市场担心需求和涨价预期 受到冲击，从基本面分析来看，需求层面经济性敏感的是国内大储，根据我们前期测算，锂价15-20万开始进入到 国内大储经济性承压区间，但与1月碳酸锂涨超18万不同的是，全国容量电价政策落地有望带动国央企入局，对收 益率接受能力相对较高；且随着大电芯下半年加速导入，有一定降本空间。 盈利层面碳酸锂、铜等金属成本，在整车、储能集成端基本是联动传导，无需过度担心电池盈利，而材料涨价虽 短期受景气强度影响，但 ...

2026年2月27日星期五 ➢ 美伊会谈有进展；全球手机市场料萎 缩。A股弱势震荡。上证指数收跌0.01% 报4146.63点，深证成指涨0.19%，创业 板指跌0.29%。算力硬件股集体爆发。 港股单边下跌。香港恒生指数收跌 1.44%报26381.02点，恒生科技指数跌 2.87%，恒生中国企业指数跌2.44%。工 业板块抗跌，科网股全面走低。大市 成交额2592.769亿港元。外盘方面，欧 洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，美国三大 股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.03%报 49499.2 点 ，标 普 500 指数 跌 0.54%报 6908.86点，纳指跌1.18%。美伊日内瓦 会谈取得进展，下周将继续新一轮磋 商。IDC预计全球智能手机市场今年将 大幅萎缩。 | 26381.02 | -1.44 | 2.93 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8814.29 | -2.44 | -1.12 | | 5109.33 | -2.87 | -7.37 | | 118.81 | 1.69 | -3.77 | | 4146.63 | -0.01 | 4.48 | | 14503.79 | 0.19 | 7. ...

个股方面，65只个股获融资净买入额超1亿元。寒武纪获融资净买入额居首，净买入13.76亿元；融资净买入额居前的还有阳光电源、芯原股份、宁德时代、 胜宏科技、北方稀土、中国平安、包钢股份、海光信息、华丰科技。 | 序号 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 证券代码 ◆ | 证券简称 = | 交易日期 | | 1 | 688256.SH | 寒武纪 | 2026-02-26 | | 2 | 300274.SZ | 阳光电源 | 2026-02-26 | | 3 | 688521.SH | 芯原股份 | 2026-02-26 | | ব | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | 2026-02-26 | | 5 | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | 2026-02-26 | | 6 | 600111.SH | 北方稀土 | 2026-02-26 | | 7 | 601318.SH | 中国平安 | 2026-02-26 | | 8 | 600010.SH | 包钢股份 | 2026-02-26 | | 9 | 688041.SH | 海米信息 | 2026-02-26 | ...

2026年开年，德国总理默茨携大众、奔驰、宝马全球掌舵人及30余位德国核心企业高管访华，这场备受瞩目的中欧外交互动，早已超越单纯的双边经贸范 畴。 作为全球第二、第三大经济体，中德的深度对话牵动着国际政治经济格局；而对汽车行业来说，德系三巨头全员随行、中德车企密集签约、政企高层深度 座谈，为这场博弈写下清晰注脚：中德合作虽为双向共赢，但从产业现实与经济数据来看，德国汽车乃至德国经济，早已对中国形成更深层次的依赖。 换句话说，这场访华，与其说是德国来华寻求经贸"平衡"，不如说是德国及德国汽车在电动化浪潮与全球格局重构中，不得不向中国市场与中国技术低头 的画风逆转。 在电池领域，宁德时代全球市占率超35%，固态电池等核心技术领先全球，宝马沈阳动力电池中心量产、新世代车型电池供应，均高度依赖宁德时代。 这份共识不仅解决了宝马本土化运营的核心痛点，更印证了中国在数据治理领域的规则话语权，让中德合作从简单的"产品供应"升级为深度的"规则共 建"。 奔驰方面则是与Momenta签署升级战略合作谅解备忘录，默茨还亲访北京奔驰工厂并试驾全新一代奔驰S级，体验中国的智驾技术和能力，标志着中德汽 车已经将技术合作推向实操落地层面 ...

国内新闻 我国科学家取得锂电池核心技术首创性突破 2月26日，据央视新闻报道，近日，由南开大学和上海空间电源研究所等单位科研人员组成的团队，取得了一项首创性的突 破。科研团队突破了氟难以溶解锂盐等关键难题，合成出系列新型氟代烃溶剂分子，通过调控氟原子的电子密度和溶剂分子的 空间位阻，既显著降低电解液用量，又具有快速电荷转移的动力学特性，从而同时提升了电池能量密度和低温适应能力。这一 成果在国际学术期刊《自然》上发表。 商务部：中德双方企业达成涉及汽车等行业十余项商业协议 2月26日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。商务部新闻发言人何咏前在回答有关德国总理默茨在中国访问的问题时表示，中德 双方在经贸领域开展了深入交流，取得了积极务实成果。访问期间，双方企业达成了十余项商业协议，涉及汽车、机械、能 源、物流、金融等行业。 默茨在奔驰中国总部体验中德合作的辅助驾驶系统 2月26日，正在中国进行正式访问的德国总理默茨在位于北京的奔驰中国总部试乘了新一代S级轿车，体验由梅赛德斯-奔驰 与中国科技公司Momenta合作开发的城区及高速领航辅助驾驶系统。他对此评价道："令人惊叹。"在参访过程中，默茨总理还了 解了梅赛德斯-奔驰在 ...

Group 1: China Ping An - The core strategy of China Ping An is "comprehensive finance + medical care and elderly care," which aims to create a new value growth pole through a "product + service" model, leading to long-term stable profit growth [3][4] - The report suggests that the current market valuation of China Ping An is low, with a PEV of 0.75, and recommends a target market value of 1.6 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 88.53 yuan per share [3][4] - The aging population in China and the increasing importance of commercial health insurance in medical payments are expected to enhance the effectiveness of the "product + service" model, positioning it as a new growth driver for the company [3][4] Group 2: Steel Research High Temperature Alloy - Steel Research High Temperature Alloy is a leading company in the high-temperature alloy sector, benefiting from strong demand in the aerospace industry and the trend towards technological self-sufficiency [5][6] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in net profit, with forecasts of 132 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 172 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][6] - The report highlights the resilience of the high-temperature alloy industry, driven by increasing defense budgets and the upgrade of aerospace equipment, which supports long-term demand [6][7] Group 3: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is recognized for its strong innovation capabilities, with a focus on oncology and chronic disease treatment pipelines, and has established an international business development ecosystem [8][9] - The company has entered a strategic collaboration with AstraZeneca to develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs, which is expected to generate significant revenue potential [9][10] - The report predicts EPS growth of 48%, 36%, and -7% for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 16.58 HKD per share [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with only 19% of cities showing signs of bottoming out as of Q4 2025 [18][19] - New home prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in first-tier cities, while second-hand home prices are generally declining [19][20] - The report indicates that the inventory clearance cycle is extending, with first-tier cities reaching 19-28 months and some second-tier cities exceeding 38 months [20] Group 5: Robotics and Automation - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robotics sector, with new product launches expected to drive growth [21][22] - The report forecasts EPS of 1.14, 1.47, and 1.83 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 147.00 yuan per share [21][22] - The company is leveraging its expertise in micro-drive systems to enhance its competitive position in the robotics market [22][23] Group 6: Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage sector is anticipated to see significant growth, with the introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms in provinces like Qinghai [36][37] - The report suggests that the demand for energy storage systems and batteries will increase, recommending several key stocks in this sector [36][37] - The expected growth rate for energy storage demand in 2026 is projected to be around 50% [38]

2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口，涵盖在途货物，仅允许持有效采矿权 及获批选矿厂的企业申请出口资格。作为全球第四大锂矿生产国，津巴布韦2025年向中国出口锂精矿约 120.4万吨，占中国总进口量的15.5%。这一禁令直接推升了锂价成本预期，也令电池厂商的利润率前景 蒙上阴影。 花旗分析师Jack Shang等在最新报告中指出，"这个担忧并非首次出现，因短期电池价格上涨周期已由需 求拉动转为成本驱动"。报告认为，尽管锂成本上行，宁德时代电池每瓦时的净利润仍将稳定在0.11元 人民币，原因在于"大部分锂成本可以向下游传导，以及公司在供应链上拥有最全面的投资布局，这将 提高投资收益"。 宁德时代在供应链纵深布局方面确实走在行业前列。公司通过自建、参股、合资等多种方式深度介入 锂、镍、钴、磷等矿产资源，并覆盖锂盐、前驱体、正极材料、电池回收等多个环节。这种一体化布局 在原材料价格波动加剧的环境下，能够有效对冲成本端的压力。与此同时，宝马集团董事长齐普策近日 随德国总理默茨访华期间，与宁德时代签署了合作备忘录，双方将在动力电池供应链协同降碳等方面深 化合作。 花旗在报告中还提及了宁德时代后续的 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Accumulate" rating for the energy storage sector [1][3]. Core Insights - Qinghai has initiated the first capacity price for energy storage following the implementation of Document No. 114, indicating a positive trend for the economic viability of energy storage across the country as provincial regulations are expected to follow [3][6]. - The demand for energy storage is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of a 50% increase in 2026, driven by favorable capacity pricing and strong market conditions [3][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests accumulating stocks in the energy storage sector, particularly benefiting from strong demand for storage systems and batteries. Recommended stocks include Haibo Shichuang, Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Zhongchuang Innovation, and Aters. Related stocks include Sunshine Power and Penghui Energy [6][7]. - Following the anticipated demand surge, lithium battery materials are expected to see price increases. Recommended stocks in this category include Hunan Youneng, with related stocks being Wanrun New Energy, Fulian Precision, Tianji Shares, Tianci Materials, Duofluo, Enjie, Fospower, and Xingyuan Materials [6][7]. Economic Viability of Energy Storage - The capacity price calculation method has been established, with a compensation standard of 165 RMB/(kW·year) for 2026, which is more favorable compared to previous standards. The annual compensation price for a 4-hour energy storage station is calculated to be 153.77 RMB/(kW·year) [6][7]. - January data shows a significant increase in installed capacity, with 3.8 GW/10.9 GWh added, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% and 106%, respectively. The sales of energy storage batteries reached 46.1 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 164% [6][7].

根据SNE Research数据，四家海外电池企业25Q4合计动力电池装机量约56.2GWh，同比-0.7%，环 比-18.1%，环比下滑明显主要受北美电动车补贴取消影响较大；四家企业全球动力电池装机合计份额 19.0%，同比-3.5ppts；对比来看，中国企业宁德时代2025年全球动力电池装机份额39.2%，同比2024年 进一步提升1.2ppts。储能领域，海外电池企业仍处于起步阶段，市场占有率相对较低；根据SNE Research数据，仅三星SDI和LGES进入2025年全球储能出货量前十，分别位第九、第十名，出货量约 12/10GWh，市场份额各约2%左右，前八均为中国企业。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，展望2026年，预计在动力电池市场，面对中国企业，日 韩企业仍将面临份额持续下滑的压力，北美地缘政策对中国企业的限制给予其储能业务较大机遇，但后 续产品验证、产能建设及订单兑现节奏仍有待观察。中国电池企业在全球动力及储能电池领域仍将保持 较强的领先优势，重点推荐海外份额持续提升、盈利能力领先、具备显著估值优势的国内头部电池企 业。 25Q4海外电池企业经营回顾：收入增长但盈利承压。 四 ...

格隆汇2月27日｜花旗称，津巴布韦锂矿出口禁令可能导致更高的锂价成本，从而对电池利润率产生负 面影响，宁德时代因此股价疲软，但这为长期投资者提供了更佳的买入机会。分析师Jack Shang等在报 告中指出，这个担忧并非首次出现，因短期电池价格上涨周期已由需求拉动转为成本驱动。尽管成本上 涨，相信宁德时代电池每瓦时的净利润仍将稳定在0.11元人民币，因大部分锂成本可以向下游传导，以 及公司在供应链上拥有最全面的投资布局，这将提高投资收益。下一步催化包括3月9日年报后的管理层 指引、其江西锂矿的潜在重启等。短期内锂生产商会继续跑赢，看好赣锋锂业。 ...