■ 张 敏 近日，由国家医疗保障局组织的一场汇聚多方代表的专题座谈会，核心议题直指如何助力中国药械"走 出去"。这向外界释放出清晰的产业信号：中国药械"出海"，已经从单兵突进，正式迈入由国家平台赋 能、企业多维攻坚的"体系化出海"新阶段。 从政策层面看，"体系化出海"正得到前所未有的系统性支持。 2026年1月份，首张"海外版药品价格证明"的颁发，为我国医药产业价格全球化提供有力支撑。同时， 多层次的市场对接网络正在形成。国家医疗保障局推动广西、新疆、天津、浙江宁波等地平台差异化发 展，面向东南亚、中亚、中东欧等共建"一带一路"国家拓展服务，搭建医药产业"出海"桥头堡。此外， 商务部、工业和信息化部、国家药监局等多部门从公共服务、产业合作、国际监管协同等方面发力，形 成了强大的政策合力，旨在降低企业"出海"的制度成本与信息壁垒。 从产业层面看，中国药械"出海"模式正发生转变。 面对历史性机遇，企业如何将体系优势转化为市场胜势？笔者认为，这要求企业完成思维转变，在多条 战线上同时修炼"内功"。 首先，夯实创新根基。"出海"的核心竞争力是不可替代的产品价值。企业需聚焦全球未满足的临床需 求，在ADC（抗体偶联药物 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the medical equipment industry, with an expected year-on-year growth of 25% for the year 2025 [22]. Core Insights - The medical equipment industry is experiencing a slight decline in December data year-on-year, attributed to a high base effect from the previous year. However, there is a significant month-on-month increase of 38% due to accelerated budget spending at year-end [3]. - The report highlights that the current round of medical equipment upgrades is nearing its end, with expectations for a new round of equipment replacement in 2025, which is projected to be no less than the previous round [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies, including the issuance of long-term special bonds to support large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer replacement programs [15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Medical Imaging - December figures for medical imaging reached 9.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 11%, while the forecast for 2025 is 69.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 37% [5]. Life Information and Support - In December, life information and support equipment generated 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 8%, with a projected total of 16.7 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 28% growth [5]. Endoscopes - Soft endoscopes reported 1.1 billion yuan in December, down 9%, while hard endoscopes reached 1.2 billion yuan, down 7%. The 2025 projections for both are 7.8 billion yuan for soft endoscopes (+12%) and 7.8 billion yuan for hard endoscopes (+3%) [5]. Radiation Therapy - December figures for radiation therapy stood at 1.6 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1%, with a forecast of 9.6 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 32% [48]. Surgical Robots - Surgical robots saw a significant decline in December, with figures at 600 million yuan, down 24%, but are expected to reach 5.2 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a robust growth of 54% [51]. Key Companies - Major companies in the sector include Mindray, which reported 1.9 billion yuan in December (+20%) and is projected to reach 11.2 billion yuan in 2025 (+35%), and United Imaging, with December figures of 2.2 billion yuan (0% change) and a forecast of 12.6 billion yuan (+37%) for 2025 [55][58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the medical innovation sector, with the China Securities Medical and Medical Device Innovation Index (931484) rising by 0.51% and notable increases in constituent stocks such as Ganli Pharmaceutical (3.05%) and Zhejiang Pharmaceutical (2.29%) [1] - The Medical Innovation ETF (516820) has seen a net inflow of funds over the past five days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 40.537 million yuan, totaling 62.4623 million yuan, averaging a daily net inflow of 12.4925 million yuan [1] - Baichuan Intelligent has launched the Baichuan-M3 Plus evidence-enhanced medical model, achieving a hallucination rate of 2.6%, the lowest globally, and introduced the "Evidence Anchoring" technology to provide citation sources for medical conclusions [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities emphasizes that the AI+ healthcare sector should focus on several core areas: AI drug development, AI medical imaging, AI chronic disease management, and AI surgical robots, highlighting the strong willingness of pharmaceutical companies to invest in AI drug development due to its potential to significantly shorten drug development cycles [2] - The China Securities Medical and Medical Device Innovation Index selects 30 publicly listed companies with good profitability and growth potential from the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector, reflecting the overall performance of profitable and growth-oriented companies [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include WuXi AppTec, Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, and others, accounting for 63.75% of the total index weight [2]

Market Performance - On January 22, the A-share market experienced a morning surge followed by a pullback, with the three major indices closing in the green, and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 1% [1][6] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) increased by 1.04%, closing at 1.558 yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.20% and a transaction volume of 1.299 billion yuan, ranking first among similar ETFs [1][6] Liquidity and Trading Data - As of January 22, the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) recorded a cumulative transaction amount of 38.006 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily transaction amount of 1.900 billion yuan; since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction amount over 14 trading days was 27.332 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction amount of 1.952 billion yuan [2][7] - The circulating scale of the ChiNext 50 ETF was 24.900 billion yuan as of January 21, 2026 [2][7] Fund Holdings and Performance - The latest quarterly report indicates that the top ten holdings of the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) showed mixed performance, including stocks like CATL, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Mindray Medical [3][8] - The fund manager noted that the fourth quarter saw a return to structural market trends, with significant divergence in the ChiNext, particularly in sectors like AI and new energy [10] Investment Outlook - The ChiNext 50 ETF is viewed as a convenient tool for long-term investors interested in China's technology growth sector, with a three-year return of 35.16%, outperforming its benchmark and ranking 526th among 1,633 similar products [5][11] - Recommendations for investors include adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy or phased investment to smooth out short-term volatility while closely monitoring the performance of constituent stocks and relevant policy developments [5][11]

Summary of China Healthcare Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare Industry - **Report Date**: January 21, 2026 - **Sentiment**: Cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026 regarding hospital capital expenditures and market dynamics [1][2] Key Insights Capital Expenditure Trends - **Stable to Moderate Growth**: Hospital capital expenditures are expected to remain stable with moderate growth in 2026 [2] - **Survey Results**: 59% of surveyed hospital managers anticipate capital expenditure growth in 2026, up from 43% in late 2024, but still below 85% in late 2023 [3] - **Projected Growth Rate**: Expected capital expenditure growth of 4.7% in 2026, compared to 3.0% growth anticipated for 2025 [3] - **Actual Growth Expectations**: Respondents expect actual capital expenditure growth of 5.8% for 2025, indicating limited visibility on actual demand [3] Key Drivers of Expenditure - **Primary Drivers**: 1. Hospital Surplus (69%) 2. Patient Demand (50%) 3. Local Fiscal Budgets (44%) [3] - **Service Volume Constraints**: Factors such as Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) payment limits and medical insurance settlements are seen as major constraints on service volume [3] Equipment and Technology Focus - **Investment Priorities**: Hospitals are prioritizing investments in AI, endoscopy, and imaging equipment, with a focus on surgical and flexible endoscopes, followed by CT and ultrasound [3] - **Weak Demand**: In vitro diagnostics are expected to remain weak [3] Company-Specific Insights Beneficiaries of Capital Expenditure Growth - **Mindray Medical (300760.SZ)**: Expected to benefit from a stable capital expenditure environment, with anticipated single-digit revenue growth in 2026. The company is expected to maintain a 16% share of planned capital expenditures [4][10] - **United Imaging (688271.SS)**: Anticipated to benefit from strong demand in high-end imaging, with projected revenue growth of approximately 21% in 2026 [4][11] - **New Industries (300832.SZ)**: Expected to face continued pricing pressure in in vitro diagnostics but may achieve above-industry growth due to healthy demand for chemical luminescence analyzers [4][12] - **Huatai Medical (688617.SS)**: Positioned to capitalize on the growing adoption of pulse field ablation technology, with projected revenue growth of 30% in 2026 [4][13] - **Guichuang Tongqiao (2190.HK)**: Expected to see revenue growth of around 30% driven by increased demand for neurointerventional and peripheral interventional procedures [4][15] Challenges for Global Players - **GE Healthcare**: Faces mixed impacts from increased capital expenditure and growing preference for local brands, which may offset some growth [4][16] - **Siemens Healthineers (SHL)**: Cautious outlook due to slow recovery in utilization rates and increased pricing pressure from procurement policies [4][17] - **Philips (PHIA)**: Similar cautious outlook with potential declines in market share for CT and ultrasound equipment [4][18] - **Olympus (7733.T)**: Expected to face challenges in maintaining market share in the digestive endoscopy market [4][19] - **Hologic (6869.T)**: Anticipated slowdown in clinical testing volumes and potential market share decline in hematology [4][20] Additional Observations - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights a complex landscape for global medical technology companies in China, with both opportunities and pressures from local competition and procurement policies [4][16][17][18][19][20] - **Emerging Trends**: The shift towards local brands and the impact of procurement policies are significant trends that may reshape the competitive landscape in the healthcare sector [4][16][17][18][19][20]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to financial engineering or quantitative analysis[1][3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown overall stability, but nearly 230 stocks have seen their closing prices fall below the level recorded on September 24, 2024, accounting for approximately 4.3% of the total market [1]. Industry Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector has the highest number of stocks below the September 24 closing price, making up 18.7% of the total. Other sectors with significant representation include food and beverage, coal, public utilities, basic chemicals, and transportation, each exceeding 10% [2]. - Among the sub-sectors, stocks in the liquor, traditional Chinese medicine, thermal coal, coking coal, and residential development categories are the most affected, with a notable presence of chemical preparations, in vitro diagnostics, and medical consumables [2]. Market Capitalization Insights - The average total market capitalization of the over 200 stocks currently below the September 24 closing price is approximately 43.6 billion, with a median market capitalization of 10.8 billion. Stocks with a market capitalization below 5 billion account for nearly 30%, while those above 100 billion represent close to 10% [5]. - Notably, China Mobile, the only stock with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion, has seen a decline of about 3.7% from its September 24 closing price, currently fluctuating around 96 yuan [5]. Performance of Major Stocks - Key large-cap stocks that have fallen below the September 24 closing price include China Petroleum, Yangtze Power, China Telecom, Wuliangye, and others. Six stocks, including Pizaihuang and Daqin Railway, have experienced declines exceeding 10% [7]. - The performance of the dividend index has lagged behind the broader market, with a cumulative increase of only 5.9% since September 24, while other indices have shown more substantial gains [8]. Index Performance Overview - As of January 21, all 31 first-level industry indices are above their September 24 levels, with an average increase of approximately 58.12% and a median increase of 53.42%. The communication, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and comprehensive sectors have seen increases exceeding 130% [10]. - Conversely, sectors such as coal, food and beverage, public utilities, banking, and transportation have shown relatively lower growth, with the coal sector only increasing by 0.6% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The medical device sector experienced a rise of 0.54% on January 21, with N Aisheren leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.7% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - N Aisheren (code: 920050) closed at 44.04, with a remarkable increase of 175.59% and a trading volume of 141,600 shares [1] - Tianzhihang (code: 688277) saw a rise of 12.38%, closing at 23.88 with a trading volume of 376,500 shares [1] - Xishan Technology (code: 688576) increased by 11.18%, closing at 76.80 with a trading volume of 34,000 shares [1] - Kangzhong Medical (code: 688607) rose by 10.91%, closing at 59.67 with a trading volume of 76,200 shares [1] - Shuoshi Biological (code: 6658889) increased by 9.74%, closing at 84.84 with a trading volume of 70,300 shares [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The medical device sector saw a net inflow of 300 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 430 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Sainuo Medical (code: 688108) had a net inflow of 69.18 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 44.76 million yuan from retail investors [3] - LePu Medical (code: 300003) had a net inflow of 48.54 million yuan from institutional investors, with a slight net inflow of 0.52 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the medical device sector, with significant stock price increases for various companies and a favorable market outlook driven by new pricing policies and international trade initiatives [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of January 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22%, while the medical device index increased by 0.69%, with notable stock performances from Tianzhihang-U (+13%), Sanyou Medical (+7%), and others [1] - The medical device ETF (562600) saw a 0.77% increase, with a trading volume of 254.268 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.15%. Over the past six months, the fund has gained 4.80%, and 11.30% over the past year [1] Group 3 - On January 20, the National Healthcare Security Administration issued guidelines for pricing medical services related to surgical robots and remote surgeries, establishing a structured pricing system to enhance innovation returns and improve accessibility to precision medicine [2] - A special seminar was held on January 17 to discuss how to leverage the medical device procurement and pricing platform to support the international expansion of Chinese medical devices, with plans for a cross-border channel based on procurement platforms in Guangxi and Tianjin [2] Group 4 - Multiple authoritative institutions have expressed optimism about the medical device sector, with expectations for a turning point in operations by 2026 due to optimized procurement rules and significant growth potential in domestic and international markets for surgical robots and AI medical technologies [3] - The medical device ETF (562600) tracks the CSI All Index for medical devices, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 45.04% of the total, including major players like Mindray Medical and United Imaging [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The medical devices industry in China is expected to face ongoing pricing pressures in 2026, particularly for in vitro diagnostics (IVD) players, although some recovery in medical equipment sales is anticipated. Niche consumable segments may benefit from value-based pricing (VBP) and globalization trends [1][2][3]. Company-Specific Insights Imeik Technology Development Co Ltd (300896.SZ) - **Rating Downgrade**: Imeik has been downgraded from Equal-weight (EW) to Underweight (UW) with a price target (PT) maintained at Rmb130. The downgrade is attributed to intensifying competition, soft domestic demand, and weakening bargaining power, leading to persistent pricing and margin pressures on its core products, Hearty and CureWhite [3][4][32]. - **Sales Forecast**: A projected 20% year-over-year (YoY) sales decline for 2025 is expected, with 4Q results likely flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) due to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A). A recovery to high single-digit growth is anticipated in 2026, supported by stable legacy products and contributions from new products like Hutox [3][33][34]. - **Valuation Concerns**: The stock is trading at approximately 29 times the estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, which is considered full given the low-teens growth outlook and limited visibility due to macroeconomic and competitive challenges [3][34][37]. Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co Ltd (300760.SZ) - **Revenue Decline**: Expected to post a 9% YoY revenue decline for 2025, with a modest recovery anticipated in 2026. The net profit is also projected to decline by double digits in 2025 [8][10]. United Imaging Healthcare Co (688271.SS) - **Sales Growth**: Anticipated to achieve over 20% sales growth in 2025, with net profit growth expected to exceed 40-50% due to a low profit base in 2024 [8][10]. APT Medical Inc (688617.SS) - **Growth Projections**: Expected to see approximately 24% overall sales growth and 28% net profit growth in 2025, with strong performance in 4Q [11][19]. Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology Co (2190.HK) - **Market Position**: Likely to benefit from VBP tailwinds in neuro and peripheral intervention devices, with potential upside surprises in sales growth [12][19]. Peijia Medical Ltd (9996.HK) - **Revenue Expectations**: Projected TAVR revenue for 2025 is estimated to be below Rmb300 million due to a voluntary product shipment delay [13][19]. Angelalign Technology Inc (6699.HK) - **Performance Outlook**: Expected to outperform targets due to resilient growth in China and lower costs [8][19]. Key Trends and Risks - **Market Dynamics**: The medical device tender value rebounded by 30.1% YoY in 2025, approaching 2022 levels, indicating a recovery in various categories despite challenges in IVD analyzers [25][26]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Increasing competition in the dermal filler market is noted, with Imeik facing challenges from new product launches and changing market dynamics [32][37]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Updates on VBP implementation and pricing strategies are critical for future performance, particularly for companies like Imeik and Peijia [15][34]. Conclusion The medical devices industry in China is navigating a complex landscape characterized by pricing pressures, competitive challenges, and varying growth prospects across companies. Imeik Technology's downgrade reflects broader concerns about market dynamics and profitability, while other companies like United Imaging and APT Medical show potential for growth amidst these challenges.