随着4月股市交易收官，各券商新一期的月度金股也陆续出炉。 回顾4月，券商金股展现出较强的超额收益能力，最牛金股4月大涨83%，由3家券商共同推荐。近四成券商的金股组合4月收益率为正，东北证券、华西证券收益率 超10%。 4月，A股三大指数月线集体收跌，其中创业板指跌逾7%。券商金股却整体表现出较强的超额收益能力，牛股频现。 每市APP显示，券商推荐的4月金股中表现最牛的是万辰集团，主营量贩零食业务，由信达证券、华西证券、东北证券三家券商共同推荐，在4月份大涨83%。涨幅 第二的是农药创新药龙头先达股份，4月大涨61%，由东北证券独家推荐。 涨幅第三的是长城证券推荐的科兴制药，4月上涨55%；排名第四的是华源证券推荐的民士达，4月上涨近55%。此外，4月涨幅较高的金股还包括锦波生物、盐津铺 子、上美股份，单月 均 涨超40%。 从各券商推荐的金股当月表现来看，每市APP收录的46家券商金股数据中，有17家在4月实现正收益，占比约37%。 每市APP显示，东北证券金股组合以13.28%的月收益率拔得头筹，东北证券在4月推中数只大牛股，例如推荐的万辰集团、先达股份4月分别大涨83%、61%。 华西证券则以10.57 ...

公司发布激励草案，授予股本当前占比约1.2%，价格为69.6 元/股。分四年归属，每年归属比例25%， 激励目标为25/26/27/28 年净利润较24 年分别增长40%/45%/50%/55%，即8.4/8.7/9.0/9.4 亿元；参考过 往，公司激励目标完成度较高，发布股权激励或表明公司深耕量贩零食业态决心。此外，公司作为量贩 零食龙头，在供应链效率、货盘迭代等方面具备领先优势，看好龙头强者更强。 盈利预测及估值 考虑到公司量贩业态盈利能力超预期，我们上调公司25-27 年量贩零食毛利率预期进而上调盈利预期， 预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为8.2、11.4、14.1 亿元（上调幅度为23%、38%、54%）。可比 公司25 年Wind一致预期PE 均值为32 倍，考虑公司所处的量贩零食业态景气度高企，且公司通过加强 供应链效率管理、货盘迭代升级、以及新店型开拓等实现了净利率的大幅提升，不仅充分验证了业态的 强壁垒，而且充分说明了公司的强竞争力，我们给予公司25 年40 倍PE，目标价182.22 元（前值128.33 元，对应25 年35XPE），上调投资评级至"买入"。 万辰集团发布一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Wanchen Group, the parent company of the snack brand "Haoxianglai," shows significant growth in revenue and a successful turnaround in profit for 2024, indicating a strong market position in the bulk snack industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 32.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 247.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company turned from a loss of 82.93 million yuan in the previous year to a profit of 294 million yuan [1]. - The bulk snack business generated revenue of 31.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 262.94%, accounting for 98.33% of total revenue [2]. Business Strategy - Wanchen Group has focused on penetrating lower-tier markets and integrating its supply chain to reduce costs, achieving economies of scale [2]. - The company opened 9,776 new stores in 2024, averaging 26 new stores per day, facilitated by a low-cost franchise model [4][6]. - The franchise model includes zero franchise fees, management fees, site selection fees, training fees, service fees, and delivery fees, requiring only a 20,000 yuan deposit and a one-time system usage fee of 13,000 yuan [4]. Market Position and Competition - As of March 11, 2024, "Haoxianglai" has over 10,000 operating stores, while Wanchen Group has signed contracts for over 15,000 stores in total [5]. - The competitive landscape includes "Mingming Hen Mang," which has also expanded rapidly, indicating a fierce rivalry in the bulk snack market [5]. Challenges and Risks - Despite rapid expansion, the company faced challenges such as a decline in single-store profitability and low gross margins [2][6]. - The net profit margins for the bulk snack business were low, with net profit rates of 2.63% and 2.74% for the first and second halves of 2024, respectively [8]. - Increased operational costs, including sales and management expenses, have risen significantly, with sales expenses reaching 1.431 billion yuan in 2024, up 229.8% from 2023 [8]. Future Outlook - The bulk snack market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 217.29 billion yuan by 2027, representing 18% of the snack food industry [9]. - Both "Haoxianglai" and "Mingming Hen Mang" are transitioning towards full-category supermarkets to enhance profitability and meet the demands of franchisees [9].

证券研究报告 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 净利率大幅提升，品牌势能延续 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 种植业 | 万辰集团发布一季报，2025 年 Q1 实现营收 108.21 亿元（yoy+124.02%）， 归 母 净 利 2.15 亿 元 （ yoy+3344.13% ）， 扣 非 净 利 2.11 亿 元 （yoy+10562.30%）。2025Q1 公司量贩业务净利率大幅优化，品牌势能延 续，强者恒强的逻辑得到充分验证。考虑到行业景气度高企，同时公司竞争 实力强劲，我们上调对公司的投资评级至"买入"。 量贩零食业务营收同比高增、环比略有下滑，净利率大幅提升 25Q1 量贩零食业务实现营收 107 亿元，同比+128%，其中同比高增主系公 司门店数高增带动，估算单店营收同比略有下滑，或系公司 24H2 开店过快、 及行业整体 24 年门店加密较多影响。Q1 系开店淡季，我们预计截至 Q1 末公司并表门店数或达 1.42 万家附近，环比 24Q4 末或微增。25Q1 公司量 贩零 ...

"小赛道"迎来大爆发！ 今年以来，港股市场频现"消费牛股"，引发市场关注，事实上，A股市场同样涌现了一批"小赛道"高增 长的个股。4月29日，食品饮料赛道的盐津铺子（002847）、万辰集团（300972），宠物经济赛道的中 宠股份（002891），美容护理赛道的百亚股份（003006）、润本股份（603193）、锦波生物股价均创出 历史新高。 去年四季度以来，不少公募基金产品投向这些高成长新兴消费公司，伴随这些公司股价的持续上涨，给 基金净值带来优异表现，如恒越匠心优选一年持有、申万菱信乐融一年持有、银华品质消费、海富通消 费优选等年内绩优消费主题基金收益回报均超20%。 渠道变革带来消费品公司业绩高增长 近期，去年四季度公募基金纷纷加仓的消费品赛道公司迎来股价持续上涨。 4月29日，食品饮料赛道的盐津铺子、万辰集团，宠物经济赛道的中宠股份，美容护理赛道的百亚股 份、润本股份、锦波生物股价均创出历史新高。 股价增长背后，是这些"小赛道"公司业绩的高增长。以零食品牌"好想来"母公司万辰集团为例，前一 日，万辰集团发布公告称，2025年第一季度，公司营业收入108.21亿元，同比增长124.02%，主要系公 司 ...

Performance Overview - The company achieved significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, with total operating revenue reaching 10.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.02% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 215 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 3344.13% [2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 211 million yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 10562.3% [2] Profitability Analysis - The company demonstrated strong profitability, with a gross margin of 11.02%, an increase of 12.72% year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin was 3.59%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 150.74%, indicating effective cost control and efficiency improvements [3] Expense Control - Total sales, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 645 million yuan, representing 5.96% of revenue, a decrease of 18.19% compared to the same period last year [4] Assets and Cash Flow - As of the end of the reporting period, the company's cash and cash equivalents stood at 2.996 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.71% [5] - Accounts receivable reached 25.8945 million yuan, up 20.86% year-on-year [5] - Interest-bearing liabilities were 1.519 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.58% [5] - The net asset value per share was 7.35 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 47.15% [5] - Operating cash flow per share was 3.97 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 147.90% [5] Key Financial Metrics - Earnings per share were 1.19 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2976.55% [7] - Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) was 25.82% last year, indicating strong capital returns [7] - The net profit margin last year was 1.87%, suggesting that the added value of the company's products or services is not high when all costs are considered [7]

一季报持续高增，维持"增持"评级 公司发布2025Q1 季报，实现营收108.2 亿元，同比增长124.0%；实现归母净利润2.1 亿元，同比增长 3344.1%。公司快速拓店，规模效应提升，我们上调盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别 为8.9（+2.3）、11.5（+0.8）、16.6（+1.2）亿元，同比分别增长201.9%、29.5%、44.3%，当期股价对 应PE 分别为29.9、23.1、16.0 倍，维持"增持"评级。 零食量贩增长亮眼，品类拓宽打开空间 公司2024Q1 营收增速为124.0%，其中零食量贩业务持续高增，2025 年初门店数达14196 家，预计 2025Q1 约新开近1000 家门店，公司门店数量持续爬坡，2025 年预计随着华北、南方等区域继续拓店， 门店数量规模有望进一步提升。 公司调整门店店型向省钱超市模式进化，品类从零食水饮向熟食、日化、冻品等方向拓展，提升消费者 粘性，打开拓店空间。另外选品方面公司增加自有品牌，有望进一步提升毛利率，同时夯实公司品牌力 与护城河。 规模效应持续释放，量贩业务利润率有所提升2025Q1 公司毛利率11.0%，同比提升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of consumer stocks, particularly in sectors such as beauty, pets, and retail, with several companies reaching historical highs [1] - Notable companies that achieved record highs include Wancheng Group, Runben Co., Dongpeng Beverage, Yanjinpuzi, and Jinbo Biological, while Han Commercial Group, Laishen Tongling, Anzheng Fashion, and Meike Home reached their daily limit [1] - The Ministry of Commerce is collaborating with relevant departments to introduce several measures, including the 2025 work plan for improving service consumption and benefiting the public [1]

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of 10.82 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 124.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 210 million yuan, up 3344.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 210 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10562.3% [1] - The snack wholesale business maintained a doubling growth trend, with revenue of 10.688 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 127.6% [1] Group 2 - The net profit margin of the wholesale business significantly improved quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 412 million yuan after excluding share-based payment expenses, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.85% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.0%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales/management expense ratio decreased by 0.7% and 0.5% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company expects to see continued growth in profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 of 944 million, 1.257 billion, and 1.608 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 221.68%, 33.18%, and 27.85%, respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong competitive advantages in its business model, with a significant revenue increase of 124% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 10.82 billion yuan, and a notable rise in net profit to 215 million yuan from 6 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1][2] - The snack retail business achieved revenue of 10.69 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 3.85%, reflecting a sequential improvement of 1.11 percentage points from Q4 2024 [2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 47.1% in 2025, with projected net profits of 978 million yuan and a revenue forecast of 54.77 billion yuan [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 10.82 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 124% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, compared to 6 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively [2] Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company’s snack retail business continues to show strong competitive advantages, with a significant number of stores (14,196) contributing to its market position [2] - The business model is characterized by "low margin, high turnover," with inventory turnover days maintained at 15-16 days, indicating efficient inventory management [2] Future Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 54.77 billion yuan and 19.2 billion yuan, and 67.19 billion yuan and 25.3 billion yuan, respectively, with an upward adjustment in net profit for 2025 to 980 million yuan [2][3] - The company is expected to continue improving its return on equity, with projections of 47.1% in 2025 and 38.7% in 2026 [3]