公司研究 2025.03.11 万辰集团（ 300972） 公司点评报告 签约门店数量突破 15000 家，开店势能延续，坚定看好公司长期发展 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 毛学东 | | | | 公 | 司 | 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | | | 零食 | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | | | 86.64 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | | | 155.94 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | | | 105.49/18.02 | 历史表现 -44% 11% 66% 121% 176% 24/3/11 24/6/10 24/9/9 24/12/9 万辰集团 沪深300 数据来源：wind 方正证券研究所 相关研究 《万辰集团(300972)：经营基本面稳健，量贩零 食持续开店，多元化探索折扣超市打开成长天 花板》2025.03.09 《万辰集团(300972)：收入持续高增，利润率持 续改善，拓展折扣超市打开增长天花板》 2025.01.25 《万辰集团(300972)：来优品省钱超市 ...

Group 1: Company Response to Recent Events - The recent announcement does not significantly impact the company's normal operations, as it is unrelated to the company and no assistance in investigations is required [1] - The company's governance and internal control mechanisms are robust, ensuring steady progress in all business areas [1] Group 2: Future Work Focus - The team has been busy over the past year, achieving competitive advantages in the snack segment, with performance results already announced [2] - In 2025, the company aims to maintain steady and high-quality development while continuing to expand, focusing on upgrading store models and improving product offerings to enhance consumer shopping experiences [2] - Various trials and innovations in product structure and business formats have been observed, including customized hit products in snacks and new categories like household cleaning and trendy toys [2] - The ongoing business innovations reflect the continuous enhancement of the company's talent team and sustained improvement in operational efficiency [2]

Summary of Wanchen Group's Conference Call Company Overview - Wanchen Group was established and listed in 2021, entering the snack wholesale market in 2022 through acquisitions of brands like Ling Shi Workshop and Hao Xiang Lai, leading to rapid store openings and brand consolidation under the Hao Xiang Ni brand by September 2023 [3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue surged from 550 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 32 billion yuan in 2023, with net profit turning positive due to new channel traffic and market expansion strategies [3][4]. - The stock price experienced three phases: initial rapid increase due to market entry, a decline due to market pessimism and expansion costs, and a resurgence driven by strong performance and share buybacks [4]. Shareholding Structure - The shareholding structure is predominantly family-owned, with the controlling shareholder holding 41% of the shares. Most high-profit sub-brands have less than 30% control by Wanchen Group, complicating future share buybacks [5]. Future Growth Strategies - The focus for future growth is on the snack wholesale and discount supermarket sectors, with expectations of a 60% increase in revenue and profit by 2025 [6]. - The company anticipates reaching 20,000 stores by 2026 under neutral assumptions, with potential for 25,000 stores in optimistic scenarios, indicating a growth opportunity of 9,000 stores [8][9]. Recent Positive Developments - Recent events positively impacting Wanchen Group include the premium buyback of shares and strong performance in the snack wholesale sector, with Q3 revenues reaching 30 billion yuan, a 60% year-on-year increase [7]. Industry Dynamics - The snack wholesale industry is characterized by a duopoly, with significant market share concentrated among a few players. The company aims to leverage network effects, reduce subsidies, and enhance private label profitability to improve margins [10][12]. - The establishment of 51 large warehouse centers is expected to enhance gross margins and reduce transportation costs, supporting the expansion of up to 20,000 stores [11]. Competitive Landscape - The discount supermarket segment is gaining traction, with over 1,000 stores established since June 2024. Key players include "Snack You Ming" and "Qiaohuo Puzhi," with a focus on regions like Sichuan and Guangdong [14]. Profitability Enhancement - Profitability will be driven by three main factors: network effects, reduced subsidies, and increased private label margins. The net profit margin for snack wholesale is projected to improve from 0.38% in 2023 to around 2.6% by 2025-2026 [10][13]. Market Potential - The overall market for discount supermarkets is estimated to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with significant growth potential in community-based retail, targeting high-density residential areas [21][22]. Valuation and Forecast - The projected valuation for Wanchen Group is around 20 billion yuan, with potential for upward adjustments if industry trends or profitability improve beyond expectations [23].

证券代码：300972 证券简称：万辰集团 公告编号：2025-006 福建万辰生物科技集团股份有限公司 关于公司重大事项的公告 本公司及除董事长王健坤先生外董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容 真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 福建万辰生物科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到国家某 监察委员会出具的公司董事长王健坤先生被留置、立案调查的通知书，所涉事项 与公司无关，截至本公告出具日，公司未被要求协助调查。 福建万辰生物科技集团股份有限公司 董事会 2025 年 3 月 3 日 现经公司董事会过半数董事一致同意，在王健坤先生不能履行董事长职责期 间，由公司董事兼总经理王丽卿女士代为履行公司董事长的相关职责，以及代为 履行公司董事会专门委员会委员职责。 公司拥有完善的治理及内部控制机制，已对相关事项做了妥善安排，除王健 坤先生外的公司其他全部董事、监事、高级管理人员目前均正常履职，公司及子 公司生产经营情况一切正常，各项业务正稳步推进中。本事项不会对公司生产经 营造成实质性重大不利影响。 截至本公告日，公司尚未知悉本事项的进展及结论，公司将持续关注上述事 项的后续情况，并严格按照 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][49]. Core Viewpoints - The company is transitioning into the snack wholesale sector, which is expected to initiate a new growth era. The snack wholesale industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with market share increasingly concentrating among leading players [5][6][10]. - The company has established a strong market position in the snack wholesale sector, particularly in Jiangsu and Anhui, and is expanding into surrounding northern markets [6][10][39]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting revenues of RMB 30.95 billion, RMB 48.98 billion, and RMB 59.99 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 233.1%, 58.3%, and 22.5% [5][7][49]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of February 27, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is RMB 94.16, with a total market capitalization of RMB 16,947.84 million [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 254 million in 2024, RMB 526 million in 2025, and RMB 886 million in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 406.72%, 106.74%, and 68.52% respectively [5][49]. - The report highlights that the company's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is significantly lower than the industry average, suggesting potential undervaluation [6][49]. Industry Overview - The snack wholesale industry is projected to reach a market size of RMB 154.7 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from 2019 to 2027 [6][26]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "two super, many strong" structure, with the company being one of the leading players alongside its main competitor [6][28]. Business Model and Strategy - The company has a robust supply chain and logistics system, with over 50,000 square meters of modern logistics warehouses and a digital supply chain system, enhancing its operational efficiency [6][39]. - The report notes the company's effective store expansion strategy, with a target of reaching 10,000, 13,500, and 16,000 stores by 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][43].

企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由万辰集团全资持股。 证券时报网讯，企查查APP显示，近日，南京万丞信息科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为许顺根，注册 资本1000万元，经营范围包含：数据处理和存储支持服务；网络与信息安全软件开发；网络设备销售； 网络技术服务等。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 30-34 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 223%-266%, and a net profit of 240-300 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses [8] - The bulk snack business is projected to generate revenue of 30-33 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 242.50%-276.75% [8] - The company is exploring new retail formats, such as hard discount stores, which may open new growth avenues [8] - The report revises the earnings forecast upwards, projecting revenues of 32 billion yuan in 2024, 48 billion yuan in 2025, and 57.55 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 280 million yuan, 660 million yuan, and 970 million yuan [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 549.27 million yuan, with a forecast of 9.29 billion yuan for 2023 and 32 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a significant increase [1] - The net profit for 2022 was 47.74 million yuan, with a forecasted loss of 82.93 million yuan for 2023, followed by a projected profit of 281.93 million yuan for 2024 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.57 yuan per share in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 45.93 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 30-33 billion yuan from its bulk snack business in 2024, with a net profit forecast of 790-880 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 2.50%-2.75% [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company is projected to have approximately 2.3 billion yuan in cash reserves, indicating strong liquidity [1] - The company plans to open over 8,000 new stores in 2024, bringing the total number of stores to 12,000-13,000, demonstrating its effective business model and operational capabilities [4] - The net profit margin for the bulk snack business in Q4 2024 is expected to be around 2.6%, with profitability expected to improve in 2025 due to reduced subsidy policies [4] - The company is anticipated to recover minority stakes in subsidiaries, which will enhance profitability through scale effects [4] - The report emphasizes the transformation of supply-demand relationships in the retail sector, highlighting investment opportunities in discount retailing and the bulk snack sector [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9.294 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.027 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 244.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from a loss of 830 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 270 million yuan in 2024 [3] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve gradually from 9.3% in 2023 to 11.6% in 2026 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from -0.46 yuan in 2023 to 1.50 yuan in 2024, and further to 5.81 yuan by 2026 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 67.15 in 2024 to 17.36 in 2026, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Wancheng Group (300972.SZ) [1] Core Views - Wancheng Group is expected to achieve a revenue of 30-34 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 223%-266%, primarily driven by the expansion of store numbers. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 240-300 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 83 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] - The company is exploring new business formats with the launch of "Youpin" discount supermarkets, which have expanded their SKU count from over 1800 to approximately 3000, enhancing product offerings and aiming to increase customer retention and average transaction value [5] - The snack wholesale industry continues to experience high growth, with Wancheng Group positioned as a market leader, benefiting from supply chain efficiency improvements and digital management advancements [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, Wancheng Group anticipates a revenue of 30-34 billion yuan, with a net profit of 240-300 million yuan, compared to a loss of 83 million yuan in 2023. The adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 210-270 million yuan [4] - The company forecasts Q4 2024 revenue of 93.87-133.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 156-216 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 26 million yuan in Q4 2023 [4] Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its store network, which is a key driver of its revenue growth. The snack wholesale business is projected to generate 30-33 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with a net profit of 790-880 million yuan, reflecting a net profit margin of 2.50%-2.75% [4] - The launch of the discount supermarket format aims to cater to community needs and enhance product variety, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.51, 2.66, and 4.28 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 67, 38, and 24 times [6] - The company is projected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 22.7% in 2024, improving to 23.0% and 22.0% in the following years [9]

Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 240 million to 300 million CNY for 2024, a significant recovery from a loss of 82.93 million CNY in the previous year[3] - Operating revenue is projected to be between 3,000 million and 3,400 million CNY, compared to 929.37 million CNY in the same period last year, indicating a substantial increase[3] - The snack business is expected to achieve operating revenue of 30 billion to 33 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 242.50% to 276.75%[6] - The net profit for the snack business is anticipated to be between 790 million and 880 million CNY, with a net profit margin of 2.50% to 2.75%[6] - The performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations and has not yet been audited by an accounting firm[4] Business Development and Strategy - The company has approximately 2.3 billion CNY in cash, ensuring sufficient funds for business development[5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain, logistics, brand building, and digital capabilities to support sustainable growth[6] - The company emphasizes the importance of high-quality development in its snack and edible mushroom businesses in response to national consumption policies[5] Market Conditions and Investor Guidance - The edible mushroom business has been impacted by market factors, leading to lower sales prices for key products like enoki mushrooms[6] - Investors are advised to make cautious decisions as the financial data will be finalized in the 2024 annual report[7]