近日，知名咨询机构GlobalData发布的数据显示，耐克、阿迪达斯、Shein成为2024年全球前三时尚零售商。凭借1.53%的市场份额，Shein超越了Zara、H&M 和优衣库，仅次于耐克和阿迪达斯，成为全球第三大时尚零售商。 超百亿加码供应链、深入技术创新持续赋能供应商业绩增长 GlobalData的数据显示，耐克以2.85%的市场份额成为全球最大零售商，但这家运动巨头2024年的市场份额下降了0.15个百分点。而Shein的市场份额增长了 0.24个百分点，达到1.53%，与爱马仕和香奈儿成为去年时尚市场最大赢家。 值得一提的是，Shein目前在全球四大时尚品牌中排名最高，另外三家品牌中Zara、优衣库表现良好，分别增长了0.05和0.04个百分点，H&M则下降了0.01个 百分点。此外，LV、斯凯奇、Puma、New Balence也跻身前十，Shein是全球前十大时尚零售商中唯一的中国品牌。 此前，在线分析平台semrush的数据显示，2025年1月，Shein(shein.com)成为了全球访问量最大的服装时尚类购物网站，Just Style分析认为Shein将在2025年继 续取得成功。 为 ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry is currently facing challenges such as rising costs, reduced consumer spending on discretionary items, and higher marketing expenses, which are pressuring profits [1][4] - Unfavorable currency fluctuations pose risks for globally operating companies within the industry [1] Growth Drivers - The industry shows promise due to rising consumer interest in healthy lifestyles and increasing demand for activewear and athletic footwear [2] - Innovation in design is a key growth driver, with companies focusing on product innovation, store expansion, digital transformation, and omnichannel strategies [2][5] - E-commerce has become a significant growth driver, with companies enhancing their digital platforms and customer engagement through social media and online sales [6] Consumer Demand Trends - Strong consumer demand for activewear, athleisure, and footwear is expected to continue through 2025, driven by a rising focus on fashion and health [5] - Companies are prioritizing product innovation and marketing to capture market share, with multi-functional shoes gaining popularity [5] Cost Challenges - Companies are experiencing higher costs due to commodity price inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and increased logistics costs, which are anticipated to impact margins in the short term [4] - Increased spending on marketing, operating overhead, and investments in stores and digital operations have raised SG&A costs [4] Industry Performance - The Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry has underperformed compared to the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500, with a collective decline of 24.9% over the past year [10] - The industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 232, placing it in the bottom 6% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull prospects for the near term [7][8] Valuation Metrics - The industry is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.54X, higher than the S&P 500's 20.77X and the sector's 17.86X [11] Company Highlights - **NIKE Inc. (NKE)**: The company is focusing on its Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy, enhancing competitiveness through product innovation and brand storytelling. However, the consensus estimates indicate declines in sales and earnings for fiscal 2025 [14][15] - **Adidas AG (ADDYY)**: The company is benefiting from strong demand and improved margins due to price increases. The consensus estimates indicate growth in sales and earnings for fiscal 2025 [17][18] - **Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)**: The company has sustained strong demand despite inflation, with significant growth potential in various regions. The consensus estimates indicate growth in sales and earnings for fiscal 2025 [19][20]

Group 1 - The analyst previously gave a neutral rating to Adidas, awaiting the performance in Q4 2024 to assess the business turnaround [1] - Adidas did not disappoint in its performance, indicating positive developments in the company's operations [1] - The investment approach focuses on identifying undervalued companies with long-term growth potential, emphasizing the importance of buying quality companies at a discount [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of approximately €24 billion, reflecting a 12% currency-neutral growth [43] - The gross margin improved to 50.8%, a 330 basis points increase from the previous year, indicating effective product positioning and lower discount levels [27][50] - Operating profit (EBIT) reached €1.337 billion, a 400% increase year-over-year, demonstrating strong operational performance [28][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Footwear sales grew by 17%, leading the overall performance, while apparel started with negative growth but ended the year with a 6% increase [38] - Accessories growth was limited to 2%, indicating potential areas for improvement [38] - Performance products saw a 9% increase, while sportswear and lifestyle segments grew by 6% and 25% respectively, showcasing a successful strategy of leveraging lifestyle to drive brand heat [40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America experienced double-digit growth in Q4 for the first time in a long period, contributing to a turnaround after a challenging start to the year [30] - Europe maintained strong growth at 19-20%, while Greater China reported a 10% increase, indicating a successful recovery [32] - Latin America showed exceptional performance with a 28% growth, solidifying the company's leading position in the region [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reduce complexity in its operations and enhance local market responsiveness, shifting decision-making closer to consumers [96][100] - There is a focus on expanding lifestyle products while maintaining a strong performance in sportswear, with plans for significant product launches in the coming years [19][40] - The company is committed to sustainability, with initiatives to reduce carbon intensity and increase the use of recycled materials [84] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth despite market volatility, highlighting the importance of agility in operations [92][96] - The CEO noted that the competitive landscape is favorable for the company, as major competitors are facing challenges, allowing for potential market share gains [92] - The management emphasized the importance of local leadership and tailored strategies to meet diverse market needs [100][108] Other Important Information - The company has a strong balance sheet with €2.5 billion in cash, allowing for future investments and a robust dividend payout of €2 per share [76][79] - The company has initiated a voluntary program to reduce 500 obsolete roles at headquarters to streamline operations [102][104] - The company is actively engaging in partnerships and collaborations to enhance brand visibility and market reach [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for growth in North America? - Management indicated that North America is expected to continue its recovery, with double-digit growth in Q4 signaling a positive trend [30] Question: How does the company plan to address the challenges in Japan and South Korea? - The company acknowledged operational challenges in South Korea due to a warehouse incident but remains optimistic about future growth in both markets through improved local management [111][112] Question: What is the strategy for sustainability moving forward? - The company reiterated its commitment to sustainability, aiming for 100% recycled polyester and significant reductions in carbon emissions [84]

Group 1 - Adidas has sold the last remaining pair of Yeezy trainers, concluding a significant chapter after severing ties with Kanye West due to his antisemitic comments in 2022 [1][2] - The termination of the partnership resulted in Adidas experiencing its first annual loss in over 30 years, with a reported operating profit of £250 million from Yeezy stock in 2023 and an additional £167 million in 2024 [2][4] - The CEO of Adidas, Bjørn Gulden, defended the decision to sell the remaining stock, stating it was preferable to destroying the inventory [3] Group 2 - In 2024, Adidas reported a 2% decline in North America revenues, attributed solely to significantly lower Yeezy sales, and forecasted lower earnings for 2025 [4] - The company is actively seeking new growth opportunities beyond its retro trainer lines, such as the Samba and Gazelle collections [4] - Despite Nike being the market leader in the US, Adidas aims to become the top sportswear brand in other markets [5]

Group 1 - Adidas reported a 19% increase in fourth-quarter revenues to 5.97 billion euros ($6.34 billion), surpassing the forecast of 5.72 billion euros by LSEG analysts [1] - The operating profit for the fourth quarter was 57 million euros, a significant recovery from a loss of 377 million euros in the same period last year [1] - The company is focusing on growing its market share in North America amid declining sales at Nike and a shift away from reliance on a weaker China [2] Group 2 - North America sales for Adidas fell 7% at currency-neutral rates in the third quarter, struggling to recover from the termination of the Yeezy sneaker line [3] - The Yeezy line was terminated following the end of the partnership with Ye due to his anti-Semitic remarks in 2022 [3] - Adidas expects to sell the remainder of its Yeezy inventory by the end of 2024, as CEO Bjorn Gulden aims to distance the brand from the loss-making line and initiate a broader turnaround since taking over in January 2023 [4]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Athletic Wear Sales Trends Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China athletic wear industry**, highlighting the sales trends for major brands like **Nike** and **Adidas** [1][2]. Key Insights Overall Market Conditions - The athletic wear sales growth rates in China for December, January, and February are **challenged**, with notable differences in brand performance [1]. - **Nike** is struggling, with sales falling below expectations, while **Adidas** is outperforming expectations [1][3]. Brand Performance - **Nike**: - Sales growth is likely running at **-LSD%** (low single digits) and is a few hundred basis points below expectations [3]. - Sales growth has decelerated slightly since December, indicating a potential loss of market share [3]. - Inventory levels have worsened over the last couple of months [3]. - The expert attributes Nike's struggles to a **lack of product innovation** [3]. - Future growth is expected to be flat to slightly down, but innovation improvements are anticipated by **4QCY25**, potentially aligning growth with the industry at **+M to +HSD%** over the next year or two [3]. - **Adidas**: - Sales performance has accelerated to the **high-teens** year-to-date after a softer December, surpassing expert expectations [4]. - Growth is driven by the **Terrace franchise**, particularly the **Samba**, along with strong performances from other franchises like **Gazelle** and **SL72** [4]. - The **Adizero** line and the apparel segment are also performing well, supported by a notable influx of new products [4]. - Optimism remains for Adidas to achieve **HSD to LDD** (high single digits to low double digits) sales growth in **2025F** [4]. Consumer Behavior - Macroeconomic uncertainty is leading to cautious consumer spending in China, with a notable shift towards online shopping channels, which are generally more promotional than brick-and-mortar stores [2]. Additional Insights - Promotions have generally increased year-over-year, and while inventory levels are elevated, they are not excessively high at this point [1]. - The overall consumer spending environment remains **choppy**, reflecting broader economic uncertainties [2]. Conclusion - The China athletic wear market is currently facing challenges, with Nike underperforming and Adidas showing strong growth. Consumer behavior is shifting towards online channels, influenced by economic uncertainties. Future growth prospects for both brands will depend on product innovation and market conditions.

Core Viewpoint - Nike is facing a decline in sales, with a reported 8% decrease in revenue for Q2 FY25 compared to the previous year, and is implementing a new strategy and leadership to regain market share in sports apparel [1] Group 1: Historical Context and Strategy - Analysts suggest that Nike should revisit strategies used during its previous challenges from 2015 to 2018 when it successfully countered Adidas' Ultra Boost sneakers by increasing product launches, re-elevating the Jordan brand, enhancing demand creation spending, and managing inventory effectively [2] - Nike's current focus is on performance wear, particularly in the running segment, which has been a competitive struggle against brands like ASICS, Adidas, Brooks, and Hoka [3][4] Group 2: Product Innovation and Market Competition - Nike is expected to launch new running shoes, including the Vomero 18 on February 27, 2025, as part of its strategy to boost product offerings and regain market share [5] - The company is advised to quickly adapt and produce shoes similar to Hoka's ultra-cushioned designs to remain competitive in the market [4] Group 3: Demand Creation and Marketing Efforts - Nike reported $1.1 billion in demand creation expenses for Q2 FY25, including a significant investment in a Super Bowl ad, which was its first in nearly 30 years, featuring prominent female athletes [6] - The marketing strategy appears to be effective, as Nike topped other Super Bowl advertisers in engagement actions, indicating a positive reception to its promotional efforts [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize that for Nike to reclaim its edge in sports apparel, it must focus on launching innovative products that align with consumer preferences [6][8]

Technical Analysis - Adidas AG (ADDYY) has recently experienced a "golden cross" event, indicating a potential bullish breakout as its 50-day simple moving average has crossed above its 200-day simple moving average [1][2] - The stock has moved 9% higher over the last four weeks, suggesting upward momentum [4] Earnings Outlook - The earnings outlook for ADDYY is positive, with no earnings estimates cut and two revisions higher in the past 60 days, leading to an increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [4][5] - Currently, ADDYY holds a 3 (Hold) rating on the Zacks Rank, indicating a neutral stance from analysts [4] Investment Consideration - The combination of positive earnings estimate revisions and the technical breakout suggests that investors should monitor ADDYY for potential gains in the near future [5]

Core Insights - adidas AG (ADDYY) reported strong preliminary results for Q4 2024, with currency-neutral revenues increasing by 19% and 24% in euro terms [1] - The company achieved a gross margin of 49.8%, up 5.2 percentage points, and an operating profit of €57 million [1] - For the full year 2024, revenues on a currency-neutral basis rose by 12%, with a gross margin of 50.8% and operating profit exceeding €1 billion, reaching €1,337 million [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, excluding Yeezy, revenues on a currency-neutral basis increased by 18% year over year [1] - The gross margin for 2024 improved by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The operating profit for 2024 saw a significant increase of more than €1 billion compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Management Outlook - Management expressed satisfaction with the progress made in Q4 and throughout 2024, highlighting robust growth across all regions and divisions [3] - The company remains optimistic about future growth, aiming for double-digit growth with the adidas brand and a 10% margin target [4] - Final financial results for 2024 and the outlook for 2025 are expected to be released on March 5, 2025 [4] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - adidas has maintained a strong presence in the U.S. sports apparel market, driven by its brand image and strategic growth efforts [5] - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) business has performed well, with retail stores benefiting from strong sell-out rates [6] - The company is focusing on reducing discounting activities while enhancing its online business mix, supported by innovation efforts [6] Group 4: Stock Performance - Shares of adidas have increased by 26.4%, outperforming the industry average decline of 2.6% [6]