中金公司研报指出，百济神州3Q25业绩略超预期，CDK41L临床1H26启动。泽布替尼拉动产品收入稳 步增长。3Q25年泽布替尼销售10.4 亿美元，同比增长51%，环比增长7%；其中美国地区销售额7.39亿 美元，同比增长47%，环比增长8%，继续保持领先地位。得益于泽布替尼全球销售扩张，毛利率提 升，以及费用控制，该行对今年公司顺利完成全年指引持乐观态度。由于公司泽布替尼快速放量以及费 用控制效果明显，我们上调2025 年盈利预测56%至3.31 亿美元，维持2026 年盈利预测不变。维持"跑赢 行业"评级，由于上调盈利预测，基于DCF模型，切换估值至2026 年，上调A/H/US股目标价 3.2%/3.3%/3.7%至320元/250港币/420美元（15.1%/26.6%/27.6%上行空间）。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of 362.59 RMB [4][14][15]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing continuous sales growth of Zebutinib, with significant advancements in its pipeline for solid tumors and hematological cancers, indicating a strong potential for sustained revenue growth [1][4][17]. - The company has raised its full-year guidance, projecting total revenue between 5.1 to 5.3 billion USD for the year, reflecting a positive shift in operational profitability [15][16]. - The report highlights the promising clinical progress of the company's CDK4 inhibitor and other solid tumor pipelines, which are expected to contribute to future revenue streams [16][17]. Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 37.26 billion, 45.31 billion, and 51.15 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.9%, 21.6%, and 12.9% respectively [3][4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.05 billion, 4.26 billion, and 5.30 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027 [4][14]. - The company reported a total revenue of 1.41 billion USD in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.37% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector has regained market attention after a two-month adjustment period, driven by macroeconomic liquidity easing and strong Q3 earnings reports from key companies [1][3]. Group 1: Performance and Financials - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) rose by 2.52%, while the low-fee Innovative Drug ETF from E Fund (516080) increased by 31% year-to-date [2]. - BeiGene reported Q3 revenue of 27.595 billion yuan, a 44.21% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 1.562 billion yuan, reversing previous losses [3]. - Innovent Biologics announced over 3.3 billion yuan in product revenue for Q3 2025, maintaining approximately 40% growth [3]. - Other leading companies like WuXi AppTec, Hengrui Medicine, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, and Fosun Pharma reported revenues of 32.857 billion yuan, 23.188 billion yuan, 21.507 billion yuan, and 2.939 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 12.076 billion yuan, 5.751 billion yuan, 5.147 billion yuan, and 2.523 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - A total of 81 innovative drug companies reported a 13.84% year-on-year increase in net profit, with 9 companies turning losses into profits, indicating a shift towards commercialization in the sector [4]. - The total value of outbound licensing transactions for Chinese innovative drugs exceeded 101.24 billion USD, significantly surpassing the projected 51.9 billion USD for 2024 [5]. - Notable licensing deals include Hengrui's collaboration with GSK valued at up to 12 billion USD and a deal between 3SBio and Pfizer worth over 1 billion USD [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector has experienced a 17% correction since early September, suggesting it may be nearing a bottom [8]. - Historical data indicates that corrections of 15%-20% often signify deep pullbacks, but current macroeconomic conditions are not as extreme as in previous downturns [11]. - The likelihood of a significant market drop exceeding 20-30% is low, given the improving macroeconomic environment and corporate earnings recovery [12]. Group 4: Future Growth Drivers - The domestic policy environment has shifted to a more stable and supportive framework for innovative drug development, with recent healthcare negotiations enhancing commercial prospects [18]. - China's biotech sector ranks second globally in clinical pipelines, with over 20% of global clinical projects, indicating strong future product launches [20]. - Chinese companies are transitioning from "me-too" drugs to "First-in-Class" and "Best-in-Class" innovations, leveraging lower costs and faster clinical trial processes [23]. Group 5: Conclusion - The innovative drug sector is entering a favorable phase characterized by policy improvements, international expansion, and strong earnings, suggesting a potential market rebound [25]. - The increasing interest in innovative drug ETFs reflects the challenges of direct stock investment in this complex sector, with products like the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF providing a focused investment vehicle [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to less than 35% [6][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, with product revenue contributing 27.31 billion yuan, up 43.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.139 billion yuan, significantly improving from a net loss of 3.687 billion yuan in the same period last year [6]. - The strong growth in revenue is primarily driven by the sales of the self-developed product, Zebutinib, which achieved global sales of 7.4 billion yuan in Q3, marking a 51% year-on-year increase [6]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance upwards, now forecasting revenue between 36.2 billion and 38.1 billion yuan for the year, while also slightly lowering the upper limit of its R&D and operating expenses forecast [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, with a current H-share price of 197.40 HKD and a market capitalization of 171.823 billion yuan [2]. Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 10.08 billion yuan, a 41.1% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 690 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 810 million yuan in the previous year [6]. - The company expects net profits to turn positive in 2025, with projections of 1.97 billion yuan, followed by 3.92 billion yuan in 2026 and 6.42 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. Product Pipeline - The company is advancing several products in its pipeline, including Sotoclisib, which has received breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA, and other products in various stages of clinical trials [6]. Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.94 yuan, 3.86 yuan, and 6.32 yuan, respectively, with corresponding H-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 93, 47, and 29 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant rise, with companies like BeiGene seeing substantial stock increases and strong sales performance, indicating a positive trend in the industry. Group 1: Stock Performance - BeiGene's stock rose over 7% amid a broader increase in the pharmaceutical sector, with various ETFs related to innovative drugs and biotechnology also showing gains of over 3% [1][2] - Specific ETFs such as the S&P Biotechnology ETF and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF reported increases of 3.61% and 3.14% respectively, reflecting strong investor interest [3] Group 2: Company Financials - BeiGene reported total revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, driven by sales growth of its self-developed products [5] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.139 billion yuan, indicating robust financial health [5] Group 3: Market Trends - Goldman Sachs highlighted that BeiGene's product sales grew by 40% year-on-year to $1.4 billion in Q3, surpassing market expectations, with Brukinsa being the primary growth driver [6] - The company raised its full-year sales guidance from $5 to $5.3 billion to a new range of $5.1 to $5.3 billion, reflecting confidence in its sales trajectory [6] Group 4: Industry Developments - The recent acquisition of Metsera by Pfizer for nearly $10 billion is seen as a positive development for China's innovative drug industry, suggesting increased opportunities for local companies to innovate and expand internationally [7] - The total value of outbound transactions for Chinese innovative drugs reached $48 billion in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024, indicating a growing trend in international collaboration and market expansion [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts from Industrial Securities believe that the recent sentiment dip in the innovative drug sector is temporary, with ongoing business development (BD) activities expected to sustain the sector's growth [8] - The focus on "innovation + internationalization" remains a key trend, with improvements in the fundamentals of the innovative drug industry chain being observed [8]

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector is experiencing an upswing, with companies like BeiGene rising over 7% and 3SBio increasing over 4%, contributing to a 2.59% rise in the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) [1] - BeiGene announced a total revenue of $1.4 billion for Q3 2025, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, while the global revenue for its drug, Brukinsa, reached $1 billion, marking a 51% increase [1] - Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera for nearly $10 billion is seen as a positive development for China's innovative drug industry, indicating a growing openness from multinational pharmaceutical companies towards innovative drugs [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the total value of "going abroad" transactions for Chinese innovative drugs reached $48 billion, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, with the $11.4 billion deal between Innovent Biologics and Takeda setting a new high for this year [1] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) is currently the only product tracking the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, focusing on core enterprises in the innovative drug industry, excluding CXO companies [2] - The ETF provides a convenient tool for investors to access leading innovative drug companies in the Hong Kong stock market, with major holdings including BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, WuXi Biologics, and CanSino Biologics [2]

Core Insights - A-shares core assets showed strong performance, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to turn positive in early trading on November 12 [1] - Key sectors such as oil and gas extraction, insurance, banking, medical devices, and innovative pharmaceuticals saw significant gains [1] Market Performance - The CSI A500 Index experienced fluctuations in early trading, with the A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) recording a trading volume exceeding 1.7 billion yuan within the first hour, indicating increased activity compared to the previous day [1] - Leading stocks included Enjie Co., Ltd., XW Communications, and China Aluminum, contributing to the index's performance [1] Sector Analysis - The innovative pharmaceutical ETF from E Fund (516080) also saw a rise of over 1.7% in early trading, driven by strong performances from stocks like Baillie Tianheng, Zai Lab, and BeiGene [1] - Despite market adjustments, the Shanghai Composite Index remained above 4000 points, suggesting that the adjustments are within a healthy range [1] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that the frequent switching of market styles has increased operational difficulty for investors, recommending a focus on the A500 Index for a balanced investment approach [1] - The CSI A500 Index consists of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, optimizing industry balance and covering most of the CSI's tertiary industries [1] Cost Efficiency - The management fee for the A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) is only 0.15% per year, providing a low-cost option for investors to gain exposure to core A-share assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International has raised its revenue forecasts for BeiGene (06160) for FY25-27 to $5.3 billion, $6.4 billion, and $7.1 billion respectively, reflecting a three-year revenue CAGR of 23% due to stronger-than-expected market performance of Zebrutinib in the US and Europe [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, BeiGene achieved revenue of $1.41 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.7%, with product revenue at $1.40 billion [1] - The company reported a gross margin of 86.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - R&D expenses were $520 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] Group 2: Product Performance - Zebrutinib's global revenue is expected to approach $3.9 billion in 2025, with Q3 2025 global revenue at $1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.6% [1] - In the US, Zebrutinib generated $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.0% [1] - In Europe, Zebrutinib's revenue was $160 million, a year-on-year increase of 67.5% [1] Group 3: Pipeline Developments - In the hematological malignancies area, the focus is on BCL-2 inhibitors and BTK CDAC [1] - Management anticipates data for Sotigalimab (BCL-2 inhibitor) in R/R MCL to be released at the 2025 ASH meeting, with plans to submit a US marketing application for R/R MCL [1] - For BTK CDAC, phase II clinical data for R/R CLL is expected in 1H26, and a phase III trial has been initiated [1] Group 4: Solid Tumor Developments - The company is focusing on CDK4 inhibitors, with ongoing phase II clinical trials exploring two dosage levels, showing high response rates that support the initiation of phase III trials [2] - The B7-H4 ADC (BG-C9074) has completed dose escalation and is currently undergoing dose optimization studies in ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, and breast cancer [2] - The PRMT5i (BGB-58067) has shown good safety and efficacy data, while the GPC3-targeting T-cell activator has demonstrated effectiveness in previously treated liver cancer patients [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong rebound in the innovative drug sector, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index rising by 2.34% and the Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) increasing by 2.16% as of the report date [1] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF has seen a net inflow of over 83 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, with 7 days of net inflow [1] - The ETF tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index, covering the entire industry chain from preclinical research to commercialization, including A-share and Hong Kong stock innovative drug and CXO leading enterprises [1] Group 2 - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.139 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, BeiGene's revenue reached 10.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, with a net profit of 689 million yuan [1] - The growth is primarily driven by sales of self-developed products such as Baiyueze® (Zebutinib capsules) and licensed products from Amgen, as well as Baizean® (Trelatuzumab injection) [1] Group 3 - The Chongqing Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission announced 25 policy measures aimed at supporting the high-quality development of the innovative drug industry [2] - These measures are designed to address development bottlenecks in the innovative drug sector and accelerate the development and application of innovative drugs [2] - China’s innovative drug industry is transitioning to a 2.0 era, moving from "import imitation" to "innovation output," supported by domestic engineer advantages, rich clinical resources, and favorable policies [2] Group 4 - The current trend of "innovation + internationalization" in the innovative drug sector remains unchanged, with ongoing business development (BD) activities sustaining the sector's attractiveness [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to enter a new cycle of investment and financing improvements, particularly for CXO and upstream companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing a rise, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like 3SBio and BeiGene, which has positively impacted the Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected ETF [1] Company Performance - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.139 billion yuan, driven by sales growth from self-developed products and licensed products [1] - The company plans to submit a listing application in Japan for marginal zone lymphoma in the first half of 2026, with expectations of obtaining orphan drug designation [1] Market Trends - Despite recent adjustments in the innovative drug sector, there has been a counter-trend influx of funds, with a net inflow of 114 million yuan into the Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected ETF over the past 20 days [1] - The ETF tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Selected Index, focusing on leading innovative drug companies and those with high R&D attributes, suitable for aggressive investment strategies [1] Industry Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the sentiment in the innovative drug sector has recently declined, but the sustainability of the sector's prosperity remains intact due to ongoing business development [1] - The trend of "innovation + internationalization" in the innovative drug industry is expected to continue, with improved fundamentals observed in the industry chain [1] - Positive trends are noted in investment and financing data, orders, and performance metrics within the sector [1]