1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Static calculations suggest that China's iron ore imports in 2025 may first decrease and then increase, with a year - on - year reduction of 8.08 million tons (-0.5%) to 1.228 billion tons. The new production capacity of mines in Australia and Brazil is expanding more slowly than expected, and events such as abnormal weather significantly affect shipments. Shipments are expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The total supply will decrease by 7.95 million tons (-0.51%) to 1.525 billion tons. [5][102] - In terms of demand, in 2025, the decline in the real estate sector in China will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). Overseas, the pig iron production in major iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while India's steel demand will continue to be strong. [5][102] - As of early September 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 138 million tons. Although the mine production capacity is slowly expanding in 2025, unexpected events such as abnormal weather have a large impact on shipments. The demand growth is resilient, and hot metal production shows the characteristic of "no off - season". Static calculations indicate that the iron ore supply - demand situation is moving towards a looser state, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but short - term supply - demand tightness may still occur. [5][102] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global Shipment: From January to August 2025, the global daily average shipment was 4.28 million tons/day, a 0.5% decrease compared to 4.3 million tons/day in the same period of the previous year. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly in the first quarter due to weather effects and then recovered to the previous year's level. The shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently low in recent years. [10] - Australia: From January to August 2025, Australia's global average daily shipment was 2.476 million tons/day, a 0.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The average daily shipment to China was 2.082 million tons/day, a 1.86% increase. The main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Western Range (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and the Onslow project (the capacity launch may be delayed until September due to road upgrades). If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment. [13] - Major Australian Companies: - Rio Tinto: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 804,000 tons/day, a 2.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The Western Range project, which was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, is the main source of production capacity increment, but due to weather effects, the annual shipment target is affected. [17] - BHP: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 791,000 tons/day, a 1.28% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity production reached 29 million tons, a record high. The South Flank mine may be the main source of increment, with a stable annual production capacity of 80 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year. It is expected that BHP will achieve a high - level production in 2025, and there will be no new projects put into production in the fourth quarter. [22] - FMG: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 517,000 tons/day, a 4.87% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year, the target range was broadened to 190 - 202 million tons. The Iron Bridge project was originally scheduled to reach full production in September 2025 but has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. [27] - Brazil: From January to August 2025, Brazil's average daily shipment was 1.0391 million tons/day, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. Vale's average daily shipment was 951,600 tons/day, a 1.02% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. In the first half of 2025, Vale's total production was 151 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. The production in 2025 is expected to be close to the lower limit of the target (about 325 million tons) mainly due to the licensing issues in the Serra Norte mining area restricting the increment. The Capanema project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2025, adding 15 million tons of production capacity. The S11D +20 mining area is expected to release production capacity in 2026. [31] - Non - mainstream Regions: In 2025, the iron ore shipments from India decreased significantly, while Canada increased its exports due to cost reduction through new technologies, and South Africa's export increment was mainly due to the optimization of railway transportation capacity. From January to August 2025, Canada's average daily shipment was 164,500 tons/day, a 5.85% year - on - year increase, and South Africa's average daily shipment was 152,300 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. [36][41] - China's Domestic Production: In the first seven months of 2025, China's cumulative iron ore production decreased by 3.28% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, production is expected to recover, and the domestic iron concentrate powder production in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.05% year - on - year to 297 million tons. Some new production capacities (such as the first - phase project of Liaoning Sishanling Iron Mine and Hebei Macheng Iron Mine) have been postponed, and safety and environmental inspections in Northeast and North China have led to the phased shutdown of small and medium - sized mines. [5][51] Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). From January to July 2025, the estimated pig iron production was 617 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.32%. The estimated pig iron production in 2025 is 920 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.65%. [5][73] - Overseas: From January to July 2025, overseas pig iron production was 234 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. Among the main overseas regions, India's pig iron production continued to grow at a high rate of 7.05%, while the pig iron production in other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. [56] Inventory - Port Inventory: In the first half of 2025, due to the decline in overseas shipments and unexpected demand, the iron ore inventory at ports decreased significantly. As of September 2025, the total inventory in the iron ore industry chain decreased by about 13.6 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 192 million tons. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, with the release of new production capacities and the slow decline in downstream demand, the downward trend of iron ore inventory may be reversed. [86] - Variety - specific Inventory: Based on data from 15 major ports, while the total inventory is slowly decreasing, there is significant differentiation among varieties. The inventory of Brazilian ore first decreased and then increased, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently decreased significantly. The inventory of low - grade ore has decreased significantly, the overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB fines has started to reach a high level. [90] Price - In the absence of obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and in China, the iron ore supply - demand balance will be achieved through price cuts and shipment reductions, and the cost support around $80 - 85 per ton is relatively strong. [94]

(Reuters) -BHP Group is likely to appoint Geraldine Slattery, the head of its Australia operations, as its first female chief executive in its 140-year history, the Financial Times reported on Friday. If appointed, Slattery will be one of only a handful of female CEOs at major global mining firms, with a previous notable name being Cynthia Carroll, the first woman to run Anglo American for five years until 2012. BHP CEO Mike Henry is expected to step down by the middle of 2026 after five years at the hel ...

China’s state-run iron ore trader tells the country’s steel mills to temporarily stop using a popular product from BHP after talks on contracts falter https://t.co/FglxfSM47e ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that BHP is strategically adjusting to industry challenges while demonstrating strong financial performance and long-term value potential [1][2] Financial Performance - Morgan Stanley assigns an "Overweight" rating to BHP with a target price of AUD 46.50, and the current market capitalization ranges from USD 137.8 billion to USD 172.6 billion [2] - Projected net income for FY2025 is USD 51.262 billion, with EBITDA at USD 25.978 billion and net profit at USD 10.157 billion, resulting in an EPS of USD 2.00 [2] - Financial performance is expected to show volatility but resilience, with net profit forecasted to slightly increase to USD 10.449 billion in FY2026, then decrease to USD 9.851 billion in FY2027, before recovering to USD 10.293 billion in FY2028 [2] - Key financial ratios include a P/E ratio range of 12.1-14.0 times, EV/EBITDA of 6.1-7.2 times, and a return on equity maintained at a high level of 18.4%-22.7% [2] Business Strategy - BHP demonstrates production flexibility, with BMA's FY2026 production guidance set between 36 million to 40 million tons, partially offsetting the impact of the Saraji South mine closure [3] - Despite a recent ruling requiring BHP to pay AUD 30 million to approximately 1,100 workers, analysts believe that the layoffs will effectively mitigate mid-term production cost pressures [3] - The Saraji South mine's closure is manageable within the overall production guidance due to its limited contribution to the total output [3] Industry Environment - The coal royalty policy in Queensland and market volatility present dual challenges, prompting BHP to accelerate cost structure optimization [3] - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected commodity prices, depreciation of the Australian dollar, and higher-than-forecasted steel consumption in China [3] - Downside risks focus on project execution issues at Escondida copper mine, Olympic Dam copper-uranium mine, and Jansen potash project, as well as operational challenges in iron ore business [3] Valuation Methodology - The valuation approach employs a weighted average of 60% base scenario and 20% optimistic/pessimistic scenarios using a DCF method, with a WACC of 8.1% [3]

Core Viewpoint - BHP plans to close its Saraji South coal mine in Queensland and lay off approximately 750 workers due to weak coal prices and high royalties in the region [1][5]. Company Actions - The Saraji South mine, part of a joint venture with Mitsubishi Development Industry, will be shut down in November [2]. - BHP is also reviewing its FutureFit mining training academy in Mackay, which has drawn criticism from local officials [4]. Financial Context - BMA, the joint venture operating the Saraji mine, is facing unsustainable financial pressures, paying A$0.67 in royalties for every dollar earned in profit [3]. - BHP's shares fell by 1.1% to A$40.31, with a market capitalization of A$204.73 billion, reflecting a 12-month trading range of A$33.25 to A$46.23 [5]. Market Conditions - Steelmaking coal prices have dropped significantly, trading at $101.75 per ton, down about 40% from an average of $400 per ton earlier in 2023 [7]. - The Saraji Complex produced approximately 8.1 million metric tons of coal in the year leading up to June, indicating that the closure of Saraji South may have a minimal impact on overall production [8]. Industry Challenges - Other coal producers in Queensland are also struggling; for instance, Bowen Coking Coal announced plans to put its Burton Mine Complex into administration due to financial difficulties [9]. - The Queensland Resources Council has called for changes to the state's royalty rates, citing that current rates combined with low prices are making coal production "unviable" [10].

Market Overview - Asian stock markets are mostly trading lower, influenced by negative cues from global markets and concerns over the US Fed's anticipated interest rate cut [1][2] - Australian shares are notably lower, with the S&P/ASX 200 falling below 8,850, driven by weakness in mining and financial stocks [3][4] Australian Market Details - The S&P/ASX 200 Index decreased by 61.60 points or 0.69% to 8,816.10, while the All Ordinaries Index fell by 59.00 points or 0.65% to 9,092.20 [4] - Major miners like BHP Group and Rio Tinto are down over 1%, with Fortescue declining 1.5% and Mineral Resources slipping almost 3% [4][5] Company-Specific News - BHP announced plans to suspend operations and cut 750 jobs at a Queensland coking coal mine due to low prices and high state royalties [5] - In the tech sector, Afterpay owner Block is gaining almost 1%, while WiseTech Global and Xero are up more than 1% each [6] - PYC Therapeutics shares are down over 28% following the sudden resignation of CEO Dr. Rohan Hockings [7] Currency and Other Markets - The Australian dollar is trading at $0.668, while the Japanese stock market is modestly higher, with the Nikkei 225 up 93.52 points or 0.21% [8][9] - In the US market, major averages ended modestly lower, with the Dow down 125.55 points or 0.3% [14]

Market Trends - Hong Kong's technology sector showed robust performance, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising more than 2%, significantly driven by Baidu's shares, which surged almost 10% due to its use of self-designed chips for AI model training [2][8] - Conversely, the Hang Seng Biotech Index experienced a 2% decline, reflecting broader market volatility and profit-taking activities in the biotechnology sector [3][8] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar weakened across major currency pairs as investors anticipated a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with markets pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction [4][8] - In Asia, the dollar's weakness had varied impacts on local currencies, with the Malaysian Ringgit rising 0.4% to 4.180 per U.S. dollar, while the Singapore Dollar dipped to 1.2763 per U.S. dollar [5][8] Semiconductor Industry Developments - China is making significant strides in its semiconductor industry, with SMIC trialing domestically built advanced chipmaking equipment for AI processors, aiming to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers [6][8] - Chinese internet firms are raising record amounts in Hong Kong's dim sum bond market, with Tencent aiming to raise $1 billion and Alibaba securing $3.2 billion for investments in AI and cloud computing infrastructure [7][8] Corporate Developments - BHP Group has halted operations and plans layoffs at an Australian coking coal site, indicating adjustments to its global portfolio [9][8] - Nissan is continuing its "Re:Nissan" restructuring plan, targeting ¥500 billion in total cost savings by fiscal year 2026, with 4,000 variable cost-saving initiatives identified [10][8]

BHP to shutter one of its Queensland coal mines and slash about 750 jobs across the division https://t.co/1YHT39LbWz ...

Core Viewpoint - BHP will suspend operations and cut 750 jobs at its Queensland coking coal mine due to low prices and high state government royalties impacting returns [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Actions - BHP Mitsubishi Alliance's Saraji South will be placed into care and maintenance from November 2025, with a production of 8.2 million metric tons of coking coal in the year to June 2025 [1][2] - The decision to suspend operations is a response to the unsustainable coal royalties imposed by the Queensland Government and current market conditions [2][3] Group 2: Market Conditions - Coking coal prices, which peaked above $600 a ton post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have normalized to around $190 [4] - Medium-term demand for hard coking coal remains strong, but maintaining operations in lower margin areas is not sustainable under current conditions [3] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Queensland raised coal royalties in July 2022 to 20% for prices above A$175 ($117) per ton, with a top tier of 40% for prices over A$300, significantly increasing the financial burden on mining operations [3] - The Mining and Energy Union recently won a Federal court ruling that affects pay rises for contracted workers, leading to increased salaries for around 1,800 employees by A$20,000 to A$30,000 on top of an average coal salary of A$120,000 [4][5]

Market Overview - Australian shares are expected to open with a dip of -0.43% as global markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut [1] - The Federal Reserve is meeting to discuss a potential cut of U.S. interest rates by 0.25 percentage points due to a slowdown in the American jobs market and rising unemployment [2] - Major Wall Street indexes have retracted between -0.1% and -0.3%, while London markets fell by as much as -0.8% [3] Company News - BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has announced the layoff of 750 jobs in its Queensland division due to weak coal prices and plans to mothball its Saraji South mine in November [4] - Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) has returned to trading after raising $300 million, which will be allocated to its flagship project, Langer Heinrich, in Namibia [4] - Norwest Minerals (ASX:NWM) has confirmed significant gold mineralization extensions at Bulgera through first-phase RC drilling, attracting attention from investors [5] - PYC Therapeutics (ASX:PYC) has appointed Alan Tribe as its new managing director [5] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 66.8 U.S. cents [6] - Iron Ore prices have increased by +0.7%, currently at $106.30 per tonne in Singapore [6] - Brent Crude is priced at $68.51 per barrel, while Gold is up to $3,694 [6] - U.S. natural gas futures have risen by +2.6%, reaching $3.12 per gigajoule [6]