2026 年 03 月 30 日 AI 时代 B 站商业价值有望增强 —哔哩哔哩-W（9626.HK）公司动态研究报告 买入(维持) 投资要点 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 | 当前股价（港元） | 179.40 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿港元） | 755.0 | | 总股本（百万股） | 420.8 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 341.1 | | 52 周价格范围（港元） | 113.6-285.6 | | 日均成交额（百万港元） | 984.0 | 市场表现 ▌ AI 时代 B 站注意力经济有望驱动广告商业化 AI 时代大厂与新势力企业均推出各类新产品，也带来入口之 争，B 站独特的内容属性也称为 AI 科普的重要入口之一。B 站的用户价值也推动了广告业务的增长，从品牌广告、效果 广告再到原生广告，得益于 B 站社区的黄金用户的注意力经 济。同时，广告业务也是 AI 较快赋能业务之一，伴随用户成 长与 AI 技术赋能，B 站的广告业务仍具增长潜力。 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60 ...

Group 1 - Yunnan coffee is transitioning from being a low-cost commodity to a premium product, redefining the value of "Yunnan origin" through flavor and storytelling [1] - The sushi chain Sushi Lang has revitalized the dining experience with a conveyor belt system, large tablet ordering, and interactive lottery, attracting young consumers willing to pay for an enjoyable meal [1] - Bilibili has achieved profitability by slowing growth and restructuring its business model, focusing on advertising, value-added services, and gaming, transforming from a traffic-driven platform to a commercial success [1] Group 2 - AI is reshaping the consulting industry, with firms like Deloitte breaking down hierarchies and McKinsey streamlining teams, fundamentally altering traditional labor structures [1] - Dubai, once a "safe haven" for global trade, is facing challenges to its security premium for the first time, as it prepares to confront geopolitical uncertainties in 2026 [1]

Market Overview - European stock markets opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 1.3%, Germany's DAX down 1.49%, the UK's FTSE 100 down 1.1%, and France's CAC 40 down 0.97% [1][2] - U.S. stock index futures also fell, with the Dow Jones futures down 0.66%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.86%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.73% [2] Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech stocks declined in pre-market trading, with Tesla, Nvidia, and Facebook each dropping over 1% [3] - The semiconductor sector weakened, particularly in the storage segment, with SanDisk down nearly 4%, Micron Technology and Western Digital down nearly 3%, and Seagate Technology down over 2% [3] Commodities - Gold and silver prices both fell, with spot gold dropping over 1.6% to $4435 per ounce, and spot silver declining by 4% to $68 per ounce [4] - International oil prices continued to rise, with both WTI and Brent crude oil up over 3%, and Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel [5][6] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a collective decline, with Bitcoin falling below $70,000, and over 90,000 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours [6][7] Geopolitical Developments - Reports indicate that an Iranian military leader was killed in an airstrike, and the U.S. is considering military options against Iran, which may include ground troops and large-scale airstrikes [8]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表 任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何 責任。 授出將不會導致(i)於直至有關授出日期（包括該日）的12個月期間內已授予及將授予各個 別承授人的購股權及獎勵合計超過已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）的1%；或(ii)於直至有 關授出日期（包括該日）的12個月期間內已授予及將授予各關聯實體參與者或服務提供 者的購股權及獎勵合計超過已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）的0.1%。 概無授出須經本公司股東批准，以及概無承授人為本公司董事、最高行政人員或主要股 東（定義見上市規則）或彼等的聯繫人（定義見上市規則）。 Bilibili Inc. 嗶哩嗶哩股份有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：9626） 授出限制性股份單位 於2026年3月26日，本公司根據第二次經修訂及重述2018年股份激勵計劃向本集團102名 員工授出合共949,277份限制性股份單位，代表同等數目的Z類普通股及佔於本公告日期 本公司已發行股份總數約0.23%（按一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Market Supervision Administration is promoting antitrust compliance awareness among platform enterprises to address "involution" competition and regulate the competitive order in the platform economy [1][3] Group 1: Antitrust Compliance Guidance - The Market Supervision Administration organized antitrust compliance training for key platform enterprises, focusing on the interpretation of the "Antitrust Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms" [1][3] - The training emphasized new types of monopoly risks in the platform economy, such as "algorithm collusion" and "choose one from two" practices, and provided in-depth explanations of core provisions related to monopoly agreements and abuse of market dominance [3] Group 2: Identified Risks - Eight specific risks were highlighted for platform operators, including algorithm collusion, assisting in reaching monopoly agreements, unfair pricing, selling below cost, blocking or banning, "choose one from two" behavior, "lowest price on the entire network," and differential treatment by platforms [3] - These risks pertain to various operational activities within internet platforms, including data transmission, algorithm application, service pricing, search ranking, recommendation display, traffic allocation, and subsidy offers [3] Group 3: Participation - Over 40 key platform enterprises, including Pinduoduo, Ctrip, Meituan, Taobao Shanguo, Douyin E-commerce, Bilibili, Xiaohongshu, and Dewu, had their legal, compliance, and business leaders participate in the training session [3]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down by 0.43% on March 25, indicating mixed performance among Chinese concept stocks [1][8] - Among the rising stocks, notable gains included TSMC up 1.42%, Pinduoduo up 1.91%, and Li Auto up 3.62% [1][8] - Declining stocks included Alibaba down 0.47%, Netease down 1.09%, and Bilibili down 3.38% [1][8] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw declines on Tuesday, with technology stocks leading the drop, as all three major indices partially retraced gains from Monday [2][9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 84.41 points, or 0.18%, closing at 46,124.06 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 184.87 points, or 0.84%, to 21,761.89 points; and the S&P 500 decreased by 24.63 points, or 0.37%, to 6,556.37 points [2][9]

Company News - Li Auto announced a $1 billion stock repurchase plan [1] - Tesla updated the delivery expectation for all Model 3 variants to 3-5 weeks [1] Market Dynamics - Major U.S. stock index futures showed weakness before the market opened, with Dow futures down 0.3%, S&P 500 futures down 0.29%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.3% [1] - Most major European stock indices declined, with the FTSE 100 down 0.08% and the DAX down 0.35% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance before the market opened, with Li Auto rising over 3% and Bilibili falling over 2% [1]

Summary of Bilibili Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bilibili (哔哩哔哩) - **Market Cap**: Approximately $9.73 billion (USD) / $9.63 billion (HKD) [2][34] Key Points and Arguments Rating and Price Target - The rating for Bilibili has been upgraded to "Overweight" with a new target price of $35 (USD) and 270 (HKD), representing potential upside of 27% and 30% respectively [1][31] - The stock price has declined by 26% from its recent peak in January 2026, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 6% during the same period [1][31] AI Investment Strategy - Bilibili plans to increase its investment in AI, which is expected to enhance user engagement and advertising revenue [1][31] - AI is projected to be a major driver for user engagement and advertising revenue growth, with expected increases of 10% in daily active users, 19% in total usage time, and 27% in advertising revenue by Q4 2025 [1][31][40] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow by 25% in 2026, with accelerated growth of 41% and 30% in 2027 and 2028 respectively [1][31][36] - The company maintains a long-term gross margin target of 40%-45% and an adjusted operating margin target of 15%-20% [17][36] Advertising Revenue Growth - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by over 25% in the coming quarters, supported by user engagement and increased ad placements [4][32] - The effective cost per thousand impressions is anticipated to maintain growth, with an estimated increase of 5-10% in 2025 [14][32] New Game Releases - Upcoming game releases, including "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals" and "Shining! Lume," are expected to drive revenue growth, with a projected 11% increase in game revenue starting Q3 2026 [4][32][21] Impact of iOS Commission Rate Changes - Recent reductions in iOS commission rates are expected to positively impact multiple business lines (gaming, value-added services, advertising) by approximately 3% [22][31][40] Valuation - Current valuation stands at 25x and 18x for 2026 and 2027 expected P/E ratios, respectively, which is attractive compared to a projected 36% compound annual growth rate for profits from 2027 to 2028 [1][31][36] Other Important Insights - The company’s operational leverage allows for stable profit growth even with increased AI investments [1][31] - The adjusted net profit forecast is higher than Bloomberg consensus estimates by 5% and 13% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [1][31] - Risks include potential underperformance of new games and decreased demand for advertising inventory [42][41] Conclusion - Bilibili is positioned for sustainable growth through strategic AI investments and new game releases, with a favorable valuation relative to its growth prospects. The recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity for investors.

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower with all three major indices declining: the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.32% to 3904.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.78% to 13619.94 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.54% to 3300.56 points [4][5]. - The market saw significant declines in sectors such as gold and basic metals, with the computing hardware industry chain, including storage and CPO sectors, leading the losses [6]. Company Movements - *ST Bosen resumed trading with a limit-up, as the company's controlling shareholder is set to change to Yan Feng Digital [7]. - Xuelang Environment also resumed trading with a limit-up after signing a restructuring investment agreement, which will result in Helixing Wanlian becoming the controlling shareholder post-restructuring [8]. Commodity Performance - The main contract for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) hit the limit-up with an increase of 11%, reaching 7281 yuan per ton [9]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 1.93% to 24789.14 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.90% to 4780.04 points. Notable declines included NIO down over 7%, Zijin Mining down over 5%, and Baidu down over 4% [10][11].

Core Insights - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong growth potential in various sub-sectors such as e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-driven markets [4][15][18] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the gaming sector, projecting continued industry prosperity into 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Tencent and NetEase due to their favorable valuations [4][18] - The report identifies significant opportunities in AI and its applications across various sectors, suggesting that AI-driven innovations will lead to a new round of value reassessment in the market [4][21] E-commerce - Alibaba's MaaS business and the progress of its Qianwen model are expected to encourage a return to SOTP valuation perspectives in the market [4][15] - The report notes that Alibaba's recent performance was below expectations, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to its AI capabilities and integration with its commercial ecosystem [15] Social Entertainment Media - Tencent is expected to continue leveraging the commercialization potential of WeChat, while Bilibili's advertising growth is projected to outpace the overall internet advertising market, with a forecasted revenue growth rate of 27% in Q4 2025 [4][15][18] Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are strengthening their partnerships with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to robust revenue and profit growth [4][16] Short Videos - The report highlights the commercial potential of short video platforms, benefiting from technological advancements, with expectations of increased capital investment in 2026 [4][16] IP and Toy Market - Pop Mart is expected to enhance its collaboration with overseas designers and strengthen its local IP penetration into international markets, supported by store upgrades and a diverse SKU offering [4][16] Long Videos - The report indicates that the long video sector is stabilizing in terms of membership and advertising revenue, with a focus on exploring new business opportunities related to the main industry [4][17] Music Streaming - The music streaming sector is experiencing healthy membership growth, with strategies in place to optimize ARPU, although there are concerns about competition from new players leading to valuation adjustments [4][17] Gaming Sector - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, with expectations of continued industry prosperity into 2026, recommending companies with strong product pipelines and growth potential [4][18] - The report suggests that new game launches will catalyze growth, with several major titles scheduled for release [13][18] Advertising - The report notes a significant increase in internet advertising investment, particularly in consumer categories, driven by major events like the Winter Olympics and the World Cup [4][18] AI Developments - The report highlights advancements in AI technologies, with expectations of a new wave of model iterations and commercial applications emerging in 2026 [4][21]