以下文章来源于聪明投资者 ，作者聪明投资者 聪明投资者 . 聚焦优秀投资人和企业家，甄选高质量的内容，追求可累进的成长。更多内容可下载"聪明投资 者"APP，官网：www.cmtzz.cn 来源 | 聪明投资者 预计阅读时间：21分钟 " 运 气 ， 就 是 当 机 会 来 了 ， 你 刚 好 已 经 准 备 好 了 。 " 这是橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）在最近的《Money Ma》访谈中，引人 深思的一句话。 他并不回避运气在投资中的作用，甚至直言自己是"世界上最幸运的人"。但他强调，运气并不是毫 无缘由的，而是建立在持续准备的基础上。 霍华德回顾了自己的职业生涯：从1969年进入花旗银行，到意外被调入债券部门，再到最终创立橡 树资本，都是非常幸运的过程。 他认为，市场中的机会并不会主动降临到你身上，而是你要让自己站在正确的位置，做好准备，等 机会到来时能够抓住它。 "你不能预测未来，但你可以为不同的可能性做好准备。" 这就是他对投资的理解：市场是不可预测，而投资者可以通过纪律、研究和思维框架，为各种情境 构建一个稳健的投资策略。 霍华德多次强调，投资并不是寻找绝对确定性的 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of being prepared for opportunities in investing, as luck plays a significant role in success, but it is often a result of being ready when opportunities arise [4][42]. - It discusses the necessity of understanding the difference between data, information, wisdom, and insight, highlighting that success comes from mastering what is truly important rather than knowing everything [46]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Howard Marks believes that investment is not about predicting the future but preparing for various possibilities, advocating for a disciplined and research-based approach to develop a robust investment strategy [4][28]. - The article highlights the significance of emotional control in investing, especially during market fluctuations driven by greed and fear, suggesting that successful investors maintain calm amidst market volatility [4][21]. Group 2: Selling Strategies - Marks points out that the real challenge in investing is not when to sell but how long to hold onto an investment until it starts to perform, emphasizing the need for strong psychological resilience [16][17]. - He notes that many selling decisions are driven by emotional responses rather than rational analysis, advising against selling simply because of price movements without reassessing the investment's underlying value [18][19]. Group 3: Market Behavior - The article discusses how market cycles are influenced by human emotions, leading to overreactions that create investment opportunities, as market prices often fluctuate more than the underlying economic fundamentals [21][22]. - Marks asserts that understanding these emotional cycles can help investors capitalize on market inefficiencies [23]. Group 4: Humility in Knowledge - The concept of "intellectual humility" is introduced, where investors should acknowledge the limits of their knowledge and remain open to the possibility that others may be right [24][27]. - Marks emphasizes that certainty in investing is a misconception, and being aware of one's ignorance is crucial for long-term success [25][26]. Group 5: The Changing Landscape of Private Equity - The article reflects on the past success of private equity during a prolonged low-interest-rate environment, suggesting that this "silver bullet" era is over as interest rates rise [32][35]. - Marks argues that the future performance of private equity will depend on the ability to adapt to changing market conditions rather than relying on past strategies that thrived in a different economic context [34][36]. Group 6: Key Factors for Successful Investing - Marks identifies three decisive factors for successful investing: the ability to interpret the same information at a higher level, understanding qualitative factors better than others, and having a forward-looking perspective [36][38]. - He stresses that successful investors must be able to discern what is truly important and predict its future trajectory, rather than merely accumulating facts [39][40].

Group 1 - Citigroup has started to show tangible results in response to changing macroeconomic conditions since the beginning of 2025 [1] - The stock price of Citigroup has declined from $84.67 to $66.05, reflecting a general market decline [1] - The analysis is supported by the expertise of a quantitative analyst with over 5 years of experience in financial data interpretation and modeling [1]

Core Insights - Former Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill announced a $50 million donation to establish the Weill Cancer Hub East, focusing on cancer treatment through research on nutrition and metabolism [1][2] - The partnership includes four leading research institutions: Princeton University, The Rockefeller University, Weill Cornell Medicine, and the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research, aiming to enhance immunotherapy strategies [1][2] - The hub will investigate the influence of nutrition and gut microbes on immunotherapy and other cancer treatments, including the effects of GLP-1 agonists [3] Research Focus - The Weill Cancer Hub East will explore how to increase the effectiveness of immunotherapy across various cancer types and patients, addressing a critical scientific question [5] - The hub's projects will involve "reprogramming" the tumor microenvironment and will include clinical trials to test new approaches [4] Previous Initiatives - The Weill Family Foundation previously established the Weill Neurohub in 2019, which focused on developing treatments for neurological and psychiatric diseases by collaborating with researchers from multiple prestigious institutions [6]

Company Overview - Citigroup is based in New York and operates in the Finance sector, with a year-to-date share price change of 5.8% [3] - The company currently pays a dividend of $0.56 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.01%, which is significantly higher than the Financial - Investment Bank industry's yield of 1% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.57% [3] Dividend Analysis - Citigroup's annualized dividend of $2.24 has increased by 2.8% from the previous year, with an average annual increase of 1.58% over the past five years [4] - The company's current payout ratio is 38%, indicating that it pays out 38% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Earnings Growth Expectations - For the fiscal year, Citigroup anticipates solid earnings growth, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 projected at $7.47 per share, reflecting a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 25.55% [5] Investment Considerations - Citigroup is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

证监会主席吴清连日会见外资机构负责人、法巴证券正式展业、公募基金加速ETF海外布局…… 近期，资本市场对外开放动作不少，持续助推中国资产在全球市场频频亮相。当"重估中国资产"成为当前全球资本的主流叙事时，我国资本市场的开放大门也正越 开越大。 这与监管部门的推动密不可分。2024年3月，证监会发布《关于加强证券公司和公募基金监管加快推进建设一流投资银行和投资机构的意见（试行）》强调，坚 持"引进来"和"走出去"并重，稳步扩大制度型开放，支持符合条件的外资机构在境内设立机构。有序推进"基金互认""ETF互挂""跨境理财通"等跨境互联互通业务试 点，研究探索推进跨境经纪业务试点。 中国资产吸引力增强 资本市场对外开放步伐越走越自信，和中国资产向上重估不无关系。年内A股和港股市场整体呈现稳中向好态势，科技成长板块表现尤为突出，TMT板块的成交持 续占A股成交的40%～50%。 德意志银行近期报告表示，中国在高附加值领域不断实现突破，并以前所未有的速度构筑全产业链竞争优势。中国企业的全球化进程有望使估值折价逐渐消失，并 在未来扭转为溢价，2025年将成为全球投资界重新认识中国国际竞争力的关键一年。 稳步扩大制度型开放 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's stock has experienced a significant decline, falling approximately 20% from its highs, which is notably worse than the S&P 500 index's decline of over 10% [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - Citigroup's shares have rebounded somewhat but remain down about 16%, compared to the S&P 500's decline of roughly 7.5% [2] - Between mid-September 2024 and its recent sell-off, Citigroup's stock gained over 40%, and it is still up more than 20% since that time despite the recent downturn [3] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - Citigroup's current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is approximately 1.7, compared to a five-year average of just under 1.5 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 12, against a longer-term average of about 8.2 [5] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 0.7, in contrast to a five-year average of around 0.6 [5] Group 3: Historical Context - Citigroup's recent decline is relatively minor compared to other sell-offs over the past decade, suggesting that the current drop may not be as significant [6] - There is a possibility that Citigroup's stock could decline further based on its current valuation metrics [6] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite the recent price drop, Citigroup does not appear to be a compelling buy for value-oriented investors, as it has not fallen to a level that would warrant immediate purchase [7]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) and Citigroup (C.US) have initiated a €7.45 billion (approximately $8.1 billion) debt issuance to finance Clayton Dubilier & Rice (CD&R)'s acquisition of Sanofi (SNY.US) subsidiary Opella [1][2] - The debt issuance consists of €5.45 billion in euro and dollar leveraged loans and €2 billion in bonds, with an additional €1.2 billion revolving credit facility, bringing the total financing to €8.65 billion [1] Group 1 - The global coordinators for this financing include Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, HSBC, and Société Générale [1] - The pricing for the euro portion is set at 350 basis points over Euribor, while the dollar portion is priced at 325 basis points over SOFR [1] Group 2 - CD&R's acquisition of Opella, valued at approximately €15 billion, is one of the largest transactions in Europe last year, highlighting the banks' eagerness to fund leveraged buyouts, which are among the most profitable deals in the financial sector [2] - The current economic uncertainty caused by President Trump's trade war has led many European and American companies to pause their plans to enter the higher-risk loan market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant surge in copper imports to the United States, driven by potential tariff policies from the Trump administration, which is reshaping the global copper trade landscape [1][2][5]. Group 1: Copper Import Surge - A large influx of refined copper, estimated at 100,000 to 150,000 tons, is expected to arrive in the U.S. in the coming weeks, potentially surpassing the historical record of 136,951 tons set in January 2022 [1]. - Major commodity traders like Trafigura, Glencore, and Gunvor are redirecting shipments originally intended for Asia to the U.S. market [1]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The LME copper price has reached $10,000 per ton, the highest since October of the previous year, with U.S. Comex copper futures prices increasing by over 25% year-to-date [2]. - The premium for U.S. Comex copper futures has risen to over $1,200 per ton, indicating a 12% premium rate, close to historical highs [3]. Group 3: Tariff Implications - President Trump has initiated an investigation into the national security implications of copper imports, which may lead to potential tariffs, export controls, or incentives for domestic production [5]. - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict a 25% import tariff on copper by the end of the year, despite U.S. buyers having no alternative but to continue purchasing imported metal due to domestic consumption being double the production [6]. Group 4: Supply Chain Restructuring - The tariff threat has prompted traders to move copper from global LME warehouses to the U.S. to exploit arbitrage opportunities, with CME copper inventories steadily increasing since Trump's election [12]. - The cancellation of LME copper warrants has surged, particularly in Asia, indicating a significant demand shift [13]. Group 5: Market Outlook - If demand growth outpaces expectations, the U.S. copper surge could lead to supply tightness in other regions, with a projected global market shortfall of 180,000 tons this year [14]. - Short-term copper prices may remain supported as more metal enters the U.S. before potential tariffs are enacted, with risks of further price increases if tariffs are implemented [14].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has reduced the bonuses for 250 top executives under its "Transformation Bonus Program" for 2024, reflecting ongoing regulatory compliance issues and a need for improved shareholder returns [1][2]. Group 1: Bonus Program Details - The "Transformation Bonus Program" was initiated three years ago to motivate senior staff to enhance financial performance and risk management systems following regulatory orders [2]. - In the third installment of the program, the payout was only 68% of the target for 2024, which is lower than the previous two years [2]. - The final tranche included a performance boost from Citigroup shares, but without this, the performance achievement percentage would have been just 53% [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Issues - Citigroup faced a $136 million fine in July 2024 due to slow improvements in data quality management, and it remains under consent orders from the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency [4]. - The bank was fined $79 million by British regulators for a trading incident that caused a "flash crash" in May 2022, where a trader mistakenly attempted to sell $444 billion worth of stocks [5]. - In June 2024, regulators identified deficiencies in Citigroup's "living wills," which outline how the bank would wind down in a crisis, prompting the need for corrective plans [6]. Group 3: Performance and Market Position - Despite the challenges, Citigroup's shares have increased by 15.3% over the past six months, outperforming the industry growth of 13.9% [8]. - Currently, Citigroup holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [10].