Core Viewpoint - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities marks a turning point in valuation improvement, with the potential for enhanced performance and market positioning in the brokerage industry [1] Group 1: Merger Impact - The merger is the first major case of a top-tier brokerage consolidation post the "924" policy, gaining recognition from regulators and stakeholders [1] - The combined entity is expected to catch up with CITIC Securities in terms of fundamentals, with some static indicators already surpassing CITIC Securities [1] Group 2: Performance Expectations - The company has adjusted its self-operated investment return rate assumption from 3.5% to 3.3% for Q4 2025, leading to a downward revision of the 2025 profit forecast [1] - For 2026-2027, the company is optimistic about improving efficiency in asset utilization and has raised market share assumptions for brokerage and investment banking businesses, resulting in an upward revision of performance forecasts [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Under the current environment of external factors such as the relocation of household deposits and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Guotai Haitong is expected to exhibit better elasticity [1] - The combination of Haitong's balance sheet with Guotai's capital utilization efficiency is anticipated to yield a multiplier effect on performance [1] Group 4: Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for Guotai Haitong, with a target valuation indicating a potential upside of 28% from current levels [1]

在论坛上，宁波市人工智能局王青燕副局长详细解读宁波市人工智能创新发展行动方案，特邀嘉宾均胜 电子（600699）雷雄博士分享了企业在技术创新、全球化布局方面的实践经验，协同单位中信银行国际 业务部许晓阳副处长介绍了跨境金融综合解决方案。 三场平行分论坛同时召开，分别围绕"中资企业出海及服务""具身智能""新材料"三大主题，邀请中信证 券研究部行业分析师和投行华东一部，中信证券国际财富管理（香港），合作企业华立集团、立昂微 （605358）、美湖股份（603319）、华翔启源、兆丰股份（300695）、博威合金（601137）等上市公 司，嘉御资本、尚颀资本、中信金石等股权投资机构，展开行业相关专题研讨。 此次论坛作为"十五五"开篇之年中信协同举办的重要活动，进一步提升了"中信联合舰队"在区域市场的 品牌知名度与市场影响力。下一步，中信证券浙江分公司将持续发挥中信协同优势，以优质金融服务赋 能浙江经济高质量发展，为企业出海贡献坚实的中信力量。 1月8日，中信证券（600030）浙江分公司及中信银行（601998）宁波分行成功举办科技产业与出海主题 论坛。论坛以"AI 赋能产业升级'甬'拓出海启新征程"为主题，聚 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the recent surge in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points, is driven by a concentration of funds entering the market due to a "bullish sentiment" among investors [1] - The current market heat is high based on volume and price indicators, but there are no signs of weakening sentiment indicators yet [1] - The rotation and fluctuation of thematic and small-cap stocks are expected to continue until around the Two Sessions, after which the market will likely return to being driven by fundamentals [1] - For allocation-focused funds, the current market excitement is not the right time to chase hot stocks, with a critical structural adjustment decision window expected from late March to April [1] - It is essential to consider where sustainable "big money" (allocation-focused funds) will flow, and to hold or increase allocations during market volatility [1] Group 2 - The report suggests enhancing allocations in sectors with improved pricing power in resources and traditional manufacturing, while also considering non-bank financials that align with consensus [1] - The firm maintains a strategy focused on "earning from performance rather than expecting valuation gains," favoring industries such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, new energy, and engineering machinery under the logic of improved pricing power [1] - Additionally, the report is optimistic about the insurance and brokerage sectors, given the backdrop of RMB appreciation, improved supply dynamics, and potential for globalization [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing the transformation of the Chinese economy, highlighting that the rapid development over the past two to three decades has been the biggest investment beta [1] - It discusses the shift in industrial structure, noting that the market capitalization of the electronics industry increased from 3.7% in 2016 to 11.3% in 2025, while the banking sector's share decreased from a peak of 15.8% to 12.8%, reflecting the transition from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth in China [1] - The article points out the changing demographic structure, stating that people are the core variable in all trends [1] Group 2 - The article outlines key investment insights, including that one can never earn beyond their level of understanding, and that money made by luck will eventually be lost through lack of skill [2] - It emphasizes that the core of investing is not about how much one earns, but rather about surviving extreme situations, with risk control and position management being crucial for realizing compound returns [2] - The article states that risk and return are generally symmetrical, and to achieve higher returns, one must accept greater volatility and drawdowns [2] Group 3 - The article suggests that with economic and technological progress, equity assets will inevitably trend upwards over the long term, serving as the core vehicle for sharing value growth [2] - It highlights that the certainty in investing is not about the probability of making money, but rather about reducing vulnerability when risks materialize [2] - The article asserts that stock prices will fluctuate around their intrinsic value but will ultimately converge towards it over the long term [2] Group 4 - The article provides actionable advice, recommending that investors choose investment methods they can tolerate, referencing Nobel laureate Markowitz's assertion that diversification is the only free lunch in investing [2] - It encourages finding investment products that one can manage effectively [2]

Group 1: Company Performance - As of January 12, CITIC Securities' stock price increased by 0.74%, with a trading volume of 6.227 billion yuan [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, CITIC Securities achieved operating revenue of 55.815 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.96% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 23.159 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.86% [2] Group 2: Financing and Margin Trading - On January 12, CITIC Securities recorded a financing buy-in of 1.128 billion yuan, with a net financing buy of -59.7256 million yuan [1] - The total margin trading balance as of January 12 was 18.908 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 5.39% of the circulating market value [1] - The margin trading balance is above the 90th percentile level for the past year, indicating a high level of activity [1] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, the number of CITIC Securities shareholders reached 669,400, an increase of 1.64% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 1.61% to 18,192 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 88.704 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 22.009 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 2026 is expected to increase export costs and reduce profitability for solar and energy storage companies in the short term, while potentially leading to a higher quality development phase in the long term [1][2][3]. Short-term Impact - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate will directly increase the costs for photovoltaic component exporters, with leading companies expected to lose 1-2 billion yuan in rebates annually, resulting in a profit reduction of 46-51 yuan per 210R photovoltaic component [2]. - There is an anticipated surge in overseas orders during the window period before the rebate cancellation, which is expected to drive short-term industry demand growth [2]. Long-term Impact - The removal of the export VAT rebate is projected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, with a shift towards brand building and technological innovation becoming the main focus [3]. - It is estimated that the export volume of photovoltaic components may decline by 5%-10% after the rebate cancellation, leading to increased cash flow pressure on companies, particularly affecting smaller enterprises [3]. - The global prices of photovoltaic components are expected to rise, diminishing the cost advantage of Chinese manufacturers, which will favor leading companies with strong brand and technology advantages [3]. Energy Storage Insights - The impact on profits from the cancellation of the export VAT rebate for energy storage is expected to be limited, with leading companies likely facing minimal challenges in price transmission [4]. - The global energy storage market is projected to see significant growth, with new installations expected to reach 255 GWh in 2025, 407 GWh in 2026, and 538 GWh in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 45.3% [4]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends focusing on three main investment lines within the photovoltaic industry: 1. Companies benefiting from high demand in overseas markets and domestic demand, particularly in regions like Australia and Ukraine [5]. 2. Leading companies across the industry chain that are expected to maintain their advantages due to scale and technology, as outdated production capacity is cleared [5]. 3. Companies that are early adopters of new technologies, particularly in high-efficiency battery components and perovskite batteries, which are expected to drive the industry's long-term growth [5].

中信证券研报表示，近期财政部及国家税务总局决定自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退 税，短期来看，我们预计光伏及储能企业面临出口成本直接增加、盈利能力下降的压力，预计窗口期内 光伏组件出货量迅速增加，SMM测算出口退税生效后光伏组件出口量或将下滑5%-10%。我们预计储能 龙头海外涨价传导顺利，政策提高出海门槛优化供给，看好海外储能高景气兑现。长远来看，我们认为 过去光伏行业凭借低价无序竞争造成的"内卷"状况有望缓解，技术创新迭代及品牌建设有望成为主要方 向，落后产能出清速度将会加快，龙头企业市占率继续提升，光伏行业有望迈入高质量发展的新阶段， 推荐光伏及储能投资机会。 ...

中信证券研报表示，近期财政部及国家税务总局决定自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退 税，短期来看，我们预计光伏及储能企业面临出口成本直接增加、盈利能力下降的压力，预计窗口期内 光伏组件出货量迅速增加，SMM测算出口退税生效后光伏组件出口量或将下滑5%-10%。我们预计储能 龙头海外涨价传导顺利，政策提高出海门槛优化供给，看好海外储能高景气兑现。长远来看，我们认为 过去光伏行业凭借低价无序竞争造成的"内卷"状况有望缓解，技术创新迭代及品牌建设有望成为主要方 向，落后产能出清速度将会加快，龙头企业市占率继续提升，光伏行业有望迈入高质量发展的新阶段， 推荐光伏及储能投资机会。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

中信证券研报表示，展望2026年，我们预计光伏用铝加速下滑，电网和汽车延续高景气度，储能和空调 铝代铜增长有望提速，支撑电解铝需求增长后劲。同时，我们认为即使印尼产能新增投产背景下，行业 供给增速下移仍为趋势，且扰动抬头迹象逐步显现。我们预计2026年铝价中枢将达23000元/吨，持续看 好铝板块盈利、估值齐升行情。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

减持后，易方达基金管理有限公司最新持股数目为156,404,550股，持股比例由6.14%下降至5.97%。 | 股份代號: | 06030 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 中信証券股份有限公司 - H股 | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 13/12/2025 - 13/01/2026 | 格隆汇1月13日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年1月7日，中信证券(06030.HK)遭易方达基金管理有限公司在场内以每股均价30.0874港元减持 436.55万股，涉资约1.31亿港元。 | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分數目 | 原大 | | | (請參閱上述*註解)有投票權股 (日/月/4 | | | | | | | | 份百分比 | | | Street Station of Antiques of Anyth of Children o ...