Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Futu Holdings (FUTU US) with a target price raised to $135.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.6% from the current closing price of $107.52 [1][5][12]. Core Insights - Futu's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, with Non-GAAP net profit reaching HKD 19.52 billion, a significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 105% and 40% respectively, marking a record high for a single quarter [5]. - The company reported strong guidance for customer growth in 2025, with a forecast of 800,000 new paying users, representing a growth rate of 33% based on the existing market [5]. - Futu's trading volume in Q4 reached HKD 2.89 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 202%, with 72% of the volume coming from U.S. stocks [5]. - The wealth management business is steadily improving, with assets under management growing to HKD 110.9 billion, accounting for 15% of client assets, an increase of 3 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent surge in investor interest in Chinese AI-related stocks, benefiting Futu's business structure and customer growth [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Futu are as follows: HKD 10,008 million in 2023, HKD 13,590 million in 2024, and HKD 16,812 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31%, 36%, and 24% respectively [4][14]. - Net profit is expected to grow from HKD 4,279 million in 2023 to HKD 6,556 million in 2025E, with corresponding growth rates of 46%, 27%, and 21% [4][14]. - The report indicates an increase in the price-to-earnings ratio from 27.3 in 2023 to 17.8 in 2025E, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $142.82 per ADS [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in Q4 performance, with revenue reaching HKD 44.3 billion, up 86.8% year-on-year and 29.0% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit of HKD 18.7 billion, up 113.1% year-on-year and 41.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The strong performance is attributed to accelerated customer acquisition overseas and a notable increase in trading volumes in Hong Kong and the US markets [1][2]. - The company has seen a robust customer growth momentum, with a total of 241,000 new funded users added in Q4, marking a 41% year-on-year increase in total funded users [2]. - The trading volume in Q4 reached HKD 2.9 trillion, a 202% increase year-on-year, driven by a favorable market environment [3]. - The company has introduced innovative services, such as zero financing rates for new stock subscriptions in Hong Kong, which has helped increase its market share [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenues of HKD 135.9 billion, a 35.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 54.4 billion, a 27.1% increase year-on-year [1][7]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 62.2 billion, HKD 68.7 billion, and HKD 73.7 billion respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [5][7]. Customer Acquisition and Market Expansion - The company achieved a record high in customer assets, reaching HKD 743.3 billion, a 53% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in Singapore, Japan, Canada, Malaysia, and Australia [2]. - Management has set a target to acquire an additional 800,000 customers by 2025 [2]. Trading Volume and Market Activity - The trading volume in Q4 was significantly boosted by the rising market conditions, with the Hong Kong stock trading volume exceeding HKD 750 billion, the highest in nearly three years [3]. - The introduction of cryptocurrency trading has also contributed to the increase in trading volumes, with substantial growth in account balances [3]. Innovation and Service Development - The company has launched several innovative financial products and services, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [4]. - The assets under management (AUM) in wealth management reached HKD 110.9 billion, a 93% increase year-on-year [4]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report projects an EPS of HKD 5.56 for 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 25x, aligning with the average PE of comparable companies [5][13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was HK$4.4 billion, an increase of 87% from HK$2.4 billion in Q4 2023. Full-year revenue grew to HK$13.6 billion, up 36% year-over-year [21][30] - Brokerage commission and handling charge income reached HK$2.1 billion, a 128% year-over-year increase and a 35% quarter-over-quarter increase [21][22] - Net income increased by 113% year-over-year and 42% quarter-over-quarter to HK$1.9 billion, with a net income margin expanding to 42.2% [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the number of new paying clients reached 215,000, bringing total paying clients to over 2.4 million, a 41% year-over-year increase [7][8] - Total trading volume jumped by 202% year-over-year and 52% quarter-over-quarter to HK$2.89 trillion, with U.S. stock trading volume growing by 36% sequentially [15][16] - Total client assets in wealth management increased by 93% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter to HK$111 billion [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hong Kong market was the top growth driver for new paying clients, with a significant rebound in trading velocity starting from September [8][16] - Singapore recorded a 19% quarter-over-quarter growth in total client assets, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of growth [14] - In Japan, new paying clients grew double-digit quarter-over-quarter, driven by a bullish U.S. market backdrop [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to add 800,000 new paying clients in 2025, focusing on existing markets without entering new ones [7][37] - A strong emphasis on enhancing product offerings, including the launch of crypto trading in the U.S. and expanding wealth management services [46][72] - The company is leveraging AI to improve operational efficiency and client-facing capabilities, enhancing user experience [53][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about client acquisition growth in existing markets, particularly in Hong Kong and Singapore, due to favorable market conditions [37][108] - The company anticipates continued robust net asset inflow in 2025, despite potential market volatility [107][108] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a balance between user experience and compliance in AI applications [56] Other Important Information - The company underwrote 40 Hong Kong IPOs in 2024, ranking first among all brokers for the third consecutive year [19] - The introduction of the new digital IPO settlement platform, FINI, is expected to enhance retail participation in the market [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for new paying clients in 2025 - Management clarified that the guidance of 800,000 new paying clients does not include new markets, focusing on existing markets with strong growth potential [37] Question: Client acquisition cost (CAC) increase - Management targeted a CAC of HK$2,500 to HK$3,000 for 2025, attributing the increase to brand equity investments [38] Question: Current trading volume and market performance - Management noted robust trading opportunities in both Hong Kong and U.S. markets, forecasting higher net asset inflows and trading volumes [44] Question: Product pipeline for equity derivatives and crypto - Management confirmed a rich product pipeline for overseas markets, including crypto trading planned for the U.S. [46] Question: Impact of U.S. stock market correction on trading volume - Despite setbacks in the U.S. stock market, management observed increased trading activity due to market volatility [61] Question: Breakdown of interest income - Approximately 40% to 45% of interest income was derived from idle cash deposits, with the remainder from margin financing and security lending [99] Question: Share buyback program and capital return plans - Management has not utilized the share repurchase program yet, focusing on growth opportunities in new markets [92] Question: Derivatives trading percentage in total volume - Derivatives accounted for roughly one-third of total trading commissions in Q4, with no significant changes expected in Q1 [97]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB4.4 billion, an increase of 87% from RMB2.4 billion in Q4 2023, with full year revenue growing to RMB13.6 billion, up 36% year over year [16] - Brokerage commission and handling charge income was RMB2.1 billion, up 128% year over year and 35% quarter over quarter [17] - Interest income was RMB2 billion, up 52% year over year and 19% quarter over quarter [18] - Total gross profit was RMB3.7 billion, an increase of 89% from RMB1.9 billion in Q4 2023, with a gross margin of 82.5% [21] - Net income increased by 113% year over year and 42% quarter over quarter to RMB1.9 billion, with a net income margin of 42.2% [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total client assets were HKD343 billion, up 43% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter [10] - Total trading volume jumped by 202% year over year and 52% quarter over quarter to HKD2.89 trillion [11] - In the U.S., stock trading volume grew by 36% sequentially to a historic high of HKD2.08 trillion [12] - Hong Kong stock trading volume grew by 117% sequentially to HKD75 billion [13] - Total client assets in wealth management increased 93% year over year and 14% quarter over quarter to HKD111 billion [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Client acquisitions accelerated across all markets, adding 215,000 paying clients in Q4 alone, totaling over 2.4 million paying clients, a 41% year over year increase [5] - In Singapore, total line assets grew by 19% quarter over quarter, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of sequential growth [10] - The overseas markets recorded the highest quarterly net asset inflow, almost equivalent to the full year 2023 inflow [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to guide for 800,000 new paying clients in 2025, focusing on existing markets without new market entries [5][29] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings, including rolling out crypto trading and expanding wealth management services [37][55] - The management emphasized the importance of AI integration to improve operational efficiency and client-facing capabilities [42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the trading opportunities in both Hong Kong and U.S. markets remain robust, with high engagement from retail investors [34] - The company expects continued strong net asset inflow in 2025, driven by client engagement and market conditions [85] - The management highlighted the potential for further penetration in the crypto market as regulatory frameworks become clearer [53] Other Important Information - The company underwrote 40 Hong Kong IPOs in 2024, ranking first among all brokers for the third consecutive year [14] - The new digital IPO settlement platform introduced by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to enhance retail participation and market liquidity [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on new paying clients for 2025 - Management clarified that the guidance of 800,000 new paying clients does not include new markets, focusing on existing markets with robust growth potential [28] Question: Client acquisition cost (CAC) increase - Management indicated that the target CAC for 2025 is HKD2,500 to HKD3,000, with increased spending on brand equity to enhance long-term user loyalty [29] Question: Current trading volume and market conditions - Management noted that despite setbacks in U.S. stocks, trading volumes remain robust due to increased volatility and client engagement [48] Question: Breakdown of AUM and market impact - Management reported that 24% of asset inflow came from non-Great China areas, indicating strong overseas market engagement [59] Question: Operating expenses and outlook - Management explained the increase in G&A expenses was due to year-end bonuses and one-off professional expenses, with headcount growth expected to be in the low to middle single digits [65] Question: Interest income breakdown - Management stated that approximately 40% to 45% of interest income was derived from idle cash deposits, with the remainder from margin financing and securities lending [81]

Core Insights - Futu Holdings Ltd. reported significant growth in Q4 2024, with revenues of US$570.6 million, an increase of 86.8% year-over-year, and non-GAAP adjusted net income of US$251.3 million, up 105.4% YoY [1] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenues of US$1.75 billion and non-GAAP adjusted net income of US$742.6 million, reflecting YoY increases of 35.8% and 26.2% respectively [2] User and Client Growth - The company reported over 25 million global users by year-end, including 2.41 million paying clients, representing increases of 16% and 41% YoY respectively [3] - Total client assets reached US$95.7 billion, marking a 53% YoY increase [3] - In 2024, the company acquired over 701 thousand new paying clients, exceeding its full-year guidance by 127% [3] Market Performance - Q4 marked the strongest growth in users and paying clients in Singapore over the past 10 quarters, with double-digit increases in Japan, Canada, Malaysia, and Australia [4] - In Hong Kong, the user base expanded to over half of the local adult population, with significant growth in paying clients and record-high average client assets [5] Trading Activities - The company's trading volume reached an all-time high of US$371.5 billion in Q4, with US stocks trading volume surging by 195% YoY to over US$267 billion [6] - Hong Kong stocks trading volume exceeded US$97 billion, representing a three-year high [6] - Crypto trading services launched in Singapore and Hong Kong saw increased traction, with significant growth in the number of traders and trading volume [6] Wealth Management Expansion - The wealth management business experienced rapid growth, with assets under management surpassing US$14 billion, nearly doubling from the end of 2023 [7] Product Development and User Engagement - The company optimized user experience through product launches and upgrades, including a redesigned desktop version and new trading options in Japan and Australia [8] - User engagement improved significantly, with daily active usage increasing across all markets [10] - The number of online course learners doubled compared to the previous quarter, reflecting increased user activity [11] Market Position and Recognition - The moomoo app secured top positions in Singapore and Malaysia for accumulated downloads and daily active users, and ranked first in annual downloads in Australia [12] - The app maintained high user ratings in Singapore, Japan, and Malaysia on both Google Play and App Store [12] - Moomoo was recognized as the 2024 Best Stock Broker by traders on the TradingView platform [9]

Summary of Futu Holdings (FUTU) 4Q24 Preview Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Futu Holdings (FUTU) - **Market Cap**: $16.7 billion - **Industry**: China Brokers & Asset Management Key Financial Projections - **4Q24 Revenue Growth**: Expected to grow by 48% year-over-year (yoy) to HK$3.5 billion - **4Q24 Profit Growth**: Expected to grow by 55% yoy to HK$1.4 billion - **2024 Revenue**: Projected at HK$12.5 billion, representing a 25% yoy increase - **2024 Profit**: Projected at HK$4.9 billion, representing a 15% yoy increase - **2025 Revenue**: Expected to reach HK$15.9 billion, an 8% increase compared to consensus - **2025 Profit**: Expected to reach HK$6.9 billion, an 8% increase compared to consensus - **Target Price**: Revised to US$123.54, implying a 2% upside from the current price of US$121.09 Client and AUM Growth - **New Paying Clients in 2025**: Projected to be 361,000, a 15% yoy increase - **Assets Under Management (AUM) in 2025**: Expected to reach HK$840 billion, a 16% yoy increase - **4Q24 AUM Growth**: Anticipated to increase by 48% yoy and 4% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) Market Dynamics - **Impact of Stimulus Policies**: The market has performed strongly since the stimulus policies introduced in September 2024, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 29% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 56% - **Trading Volume**: Hong Kong stock trading volume has contributed 30% of total turnover over the three-year average, with average daily trading volume (ADTV) increasing to HK$180 billion from HK$110 billion Revenue Drivers - **Commission Income**: Expected to benefit from increased trading activity in the Hong Kong market - **Interest Income**: Minimal impact from Federal Reserve rate cuts anticipated, with margin financing and securities lending expected to grow by 44% and 31% yoy in 4Q24 and 2025, respectively Cost Management - **Cost-to-Income Ratio (CIR)**: Projected to decline from 41% in 2024 to 38% in 2025, contributing to EPS growth - **Cost Control Measures**: No plans for market expansion in 2025, which will reduce market expansion expenses Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected growth in paying clients, AUM, stock market capitalization, and trading volume - **Downside Risks**: Weaker-than-expected growth in paying clients and AUM, stock market decline, and lower trading activity Conclusion - **Rating**: Neutral - **Valuation**: Target P/E maintained at 18x, reflecting limited upside due to ongoing regulatory challenges in the China onshore business This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Futu Holdings, focusing on financial projections, market dynamics, revenue drivers, cost management, and associated risks.

周末闲聊，想哪到哪啊。 昨天有不少读者看中了文末提到的4%活期利率，但这个不是墙内人民币的理财产品，是离岸美元的理财产品，我在文章里提到的老虎证券、富途证券、 盈透证券，包括之前的利弗莫尔都是境外券商。 你如果有外汇美元的话，4%收益没什么稀罕的，10年期美国国债收益率最新是4.3%，这些券商只是把国债收益给产品化，集成到了活期理财里。 然后就是有读者提出肉身去香港开离岸银行户，开离岸证券户。我可以确认开离岸银行户是肯定没问题的，至于离岸证券户几个中资券商不行，他们会拒 绝大陆过来的kyc，但我听说有好几个外资券商可以，至于是哪几个我唔知啊，你们开银行户的时候顺便问工作人员咯，这种上下游关联业务的多半有推 荐。 还有读者说让我多讲讲香港见闻，觉得蛮有趣的，其实我也只是匆匆的游客，没有深度体验香港本地生活。因为曾经上百年被英国统辖，那里确实和国内 城市很不一样。 普通人去那里感受最显著的差异就是消费贵，我之前提出过一个4倍理论，就是大部分香港物价除以4，就约等于国内。比如香港打工人月薪大都在20000- 30000区间，除以4就是国内的5000-7500，其它衣食住行等消费也差不多是这个比例。 比如我朋友他家每 ...

Economic Outlook - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, which aligns with its medium- and long-term goals [2] - A budget deficit target of 4% of GDP has been announced, which is 1% higher than the previous year, marking the largest deficit since 2010 [2] Stimulus Measures - The government plans to inject nearly $179 billion in long-term treasury bonds, approximately $69 billion in bonds to support large commercial banks, and $610 billion in special-purpose bonds to assist local governments facing financial difficulties [3] - The intention to expand cooperation in the science and technology sector and deepen reforms in investment and financing within the capital market has been highlighted [4] Market Response - Chinese stocks, including Futu Holdings, GDS Holdings, and New Oriental Education & Technology, experienced significant gains, with Futu up 12%, GDS up 10%, and New Oriental up roughly 6% [1] - The tech sector is showing positive momentum, driven by government stimulus and advancements in artificial intelligence [6] Company Insights - Futu Holdings operates as a digital wealth management and online brokerage platform, facilitating investments for both Chinese citizens and foreigners [7] - GDS Holdings, which runs data centers, has benefited from the AI sector's growth [7] - New Oriental Education & Technology is an online tutoring and education platform that has also seen stock price increases [7] Trade War Context - The ongoing trade war with the U.S. is contributing to market volatility, but there are signs of recovery in Chinese stocks [8] - The Chinese government is responding to U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures, indicating a commitment to defend its economic interests [5]

Group 1 - Futu Holdings Limited will report its financial results for Q4 and full year 2024 on March 13, 2025, before U.S. markets open [1] - An earnings conference call will be held on March 13, 2025, at 7:30 AM U.S. Eastern Time [1] - Participants must pre-register for the conference call using a provided link [2] Group 2 - Upon registration, participants will receive confirmation emails with dial-in numbers and personal PINs [3] - A live and archived webcast of the conference call will be available on the company's investor relations website [3] Group 3 - Futu Holdings Limited is a tech-driven online brokerage and wealth management platform [4] - The company offers a range of digital financial services through its platforms, including trade execution, margin financing, and wealth management [4] - Futu integrates social media tools to enhance user connectivity and engagement [4]

Core Insights - Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is currently more attractive to value investors compared to Ibotta (IBTA) based on various financial metrics and rankings [3][7] Valuation Metrics - FUTU has a forward P/E ratio of 18.02, while IBTA has a higher forward P/E of 27.43 [5] - The PEG ratio for FUTU is 0.76, indicating better value relative to its expected earnings growth compared to IBTA's PEG ratio of 0.87 [5] - FUTU's P/B ratio stands at 4.36, which is lower than IBTA's P/B ratio of 5.29, suggesting that FUTU is more undervalued in terms of market value versus book value [6] Earnings Outlook - FUTU has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a stronger improvement in earnings outlook compared to IBTA, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][7] - The analysis indicates that FUTU has experienced stronger estimate revision activity, making it a more favorable option for value investors [7] Value Grades - FUTU has been assigned a Value grade of B, while IBTA has a Value grade of C, reflecting the relative attractiveness of their valuations [6]