2024Q2 净利超预期 产品周期强势 2024 年 08 月 23 日 ➢ 事件概述：8 月 21 日，公司发布 2024 年二季报：2024Q2 营收 549.9 亿 元，同比+38.6%，环比+5.1%；2024Q2 归母净利 90.4 亿元，同比+954.8%， 环比+478.9%。2024Q2 毛利率 16.5%，同比+1.9pct，环比+2.8%。 ➢ 受益销量同比大增及产品结构优化 营收表现亮眼。收入端：2024Q2 营收 549.9 亿元，同比+38.6%，环比+5.1%，主要受益销量同比大幅提升及产品结 构升级、优化，2024Q2 销量 48.0 万辆，同比+33.4%，环比+0.9%，其中新能 源销量 17.6 万辆，同比+99.4%，环比+22.2%；占比 36.7%，环比+6.4pct； ASP：我们测算 2024Q2 单车 ASP 13.2 万元，同比+0.70 万元（采用收入/（吉 利汽车除领克之外的销量）粗略计算），主要受单价较高的新能源销量占比提升 驱动及整体折扣力度加大综合影响。 ➢ 毛利表现超预期+出售股权非经收益 净利亮眼。利润端：2024Q2 归母净利 90.4 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Geely Automobile [1] Core Views - Geely Automobile's Q2 2024 performance shows significant growth in both revenue and profit, with total revenue reaching 54.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.86% [3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9.04 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 90.52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 82.73% [3] - The report highlights the successful transition to new energy vehicles, with a penetration rate of 36.68% in Q2 2024, up 12.14 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Geely's overseas sales have also seen a significant increase, with Q2 2024 overseas sales reaching 110,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 67.81% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Geely achieved total revenue of 107.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.63%, and a net profit of 10.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 574.60% [4] - The average revenue per vehicle (ASP) for H1 2024 was 105,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [3] Sales and Market Expansion - Geely's total vehicle sales in Q2 2024 reached 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.06% [3] - The report notes strong sales performance from Geely's high-end brands, with Zeekr and Lynk & Co showing significant growth [3] - The company has expanded its global presence, with sales and service networks established in 76 countries and over 120 new outlets opened in H1 2024 [5] Future Outlook - The report projects Geely's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 189.2 billion, 219.9 billion, and 221.5 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 6%, 16%, and 1% respectively [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 16.43 billion, 11.84 billion, and 15.39 billion yuan, with growth rates of 210%, -28%, and 30% respectively [6] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on high-end products and new energy vehicles, which are expected to drive future growth [5]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$14.00, implying a 77.7% upside from the current price of HK$7.88 [2][4]. Core Insights - Geely's 1H24 core earnings exceeded prior forecasts by 18%, driven by a lower R&D capitalization ratio and improved gross margins [2]. - The Galaxy E5 BEV, based on the GEA platform, is expected to drive sales volume and improve margins compared to previous models [2]. - Zeekr's introduction of hybrid models is anticipated to enhance competitiveness in the premium vehicle segment [2]. - The current valuation of Geely is considered attractive, with a projected net profit of RMB4.1 billion for 2H24 and a 12% increase in FY25E net profit to RMB8.7 billion [2][3]. Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue was RMB107.3 billion, slightly below forecasts, with a gross margin of 15.1%, which is 1 percentage point higher than estimates [2][7]. - The net profit for 1H24, excluding certain items, was approximately RMB4 billion, marking an 18% increase over forecasts [2]. - Revenue projections for FY24E have been raised from RMB227.5 billion to RMB227.6 billion, with net profit estimates increasing significantly from RMB7 billion to RMB14.7 billion [7][9]. Sales and Production Outlook - The order backlog for the Galaxy E5 BEV is estimated to exceed 25,000 units, supported by competitive pricing [2]. - Sales volume forecast for FY24E has been increased from 1.98 million units to 2.01 million units [2]. - Geely's total revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27.0% for FY24E, followed by 9.3% and 7.3% for FY25E and FY26E, respectively [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - Zeekr is valued at 0.7x FY25E core revenue, translating to a valuation of approximately US$8.4 billion [2][8]. - Geely's other businesses are valued at a P/E of 12x for FY25E, reflecting a comprehensive valuation approach [2][8]. - The projected P/E ratio for FY24E is 5.0, significantly lower than historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 12, indicating a potential upside of 52% from the current price of HKD 7.9 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record revenue of HKD 107.3 billion in the first half of the year, representing a 47% year-on-year increase, driven by a 41% increase in total sales to 956,000 vehicles [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for the first half was HKD 3.37 billion, a 114% increase year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1][2]. - The company has raised its full-year sales target from 1.9 million to 2 million vehicles, with new models set to launch in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The introduction of new energy vehicles is expected to enhance profitability, with several new models planned for release, including the Galaxy E5, Zeekr 7X, and Lynk & Co Z10 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was HKD 147.965 billion, with a growth rate of 46%, and is projected to reach HKD 210.6 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 18% [3][5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2022 was HKD 5.26 billion, with a projected increase to HKD 13.966 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 163% [3][5]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2022 to 15.9% by 2026, while net profit margin is projected to rise from 3.6% to 5.1% over the same period [3][7]. Market Dynamics - The company is positioned to benefit from government policies that enhance demand for new energy vehicles, with subsidies for trade-in programs significantly increased [2][3]. - The company plans to expand its market presence in overseas markets, particularly in Mexico and Australia, while enhancing its product competitiveness through new model launches [2][3].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 107,305,450, a 47% increase from RMB 73,181,745 in the same period of 2023[2] - Profit attributable to equity holders of the company surged to RMB 10,597,868, representing a 575% increase compared to RMB 1,570,728 in the previous year[2] - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 104.59, up 601% from RMB 14.91 in the same period last year[2] - Total sales volume for the period was 955,730 units, a 41% increase from 677,920 units in the previous year[2] - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 10,939,917, compared to RMB 1,474,100 in the same period last year[5] - Other comprehensive income for the period was RMB 13,333, compared to a loss of RMB 87,810 in the previous year[6] - The pre-tax profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 10,939,917 thousand, a substantial rise from RMB 1,474,100 thousand in the same period of 2023, reflecting an increase of about 642.5%[9] - The company reported a significant adjustment in non-cash items amounting to RMB (3,278,858) thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 4,223,921 thousand in the previous year[9] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 197,017,141, reflecting a 2% increase from RMB 192,597,681 at the end of 2023[2] - Total liabilities as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 10,670,935 thousand, slightly up from RMB 10,622,256 thousand at the end of 2023, showing a marginal increase of about 0.5%[8] - As of June 30, 2024, the total equity amounted to RMB 96,177,997 thousand, an increase from RMB 85,151,498 thousand as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of approximately 12.0%[8] - Equity attributable to equity holders of the company rose to RMB 89,624,643, an 11% increase from RMB 80,508,824 at the end of 2023[2] - Non-controlling interests increased to RMB 6,553,354 thousand as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 4,642,674 thousand at the end of 2023, indicating a growth of approximately 41.1%[8] Cash Flow and Investments - The company’s net cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 41,487,826 as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 35,745,963 at the end of 2023[7] - The cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital was RMB 7,661,059 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 5,698,021 thousand for the same period in 2023, reflecting an increase of about 34.4%[9] - The net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 14,151,902 thousand, up from RMB 10,698,972 thousand year-over-year, indicating a growth of approximately 32.3%[9] - The net cash used in investing activities was RMB 10,070,599 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 8,986,314 thousand in the prior year, representing an increase of about 12.1%[10] - The net cash from financing activities was RMB 548,896 thousand, a significant recovery from a net cash used of RMB 2,206,223 thousand in the same period last year[10] Revenue Sources - Revenue from automobile sales and related services reached RMB 87,479,658, an increase of 45% compared to RMB 60,284,330 in the previous year[16] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 107,305,450, up 46.6% from RMB 73,181,745 in the same period last year[16] - R&D and related technical support services generated revenue of RMB 3,274,555, a significant increase of 73.8% from RMB 1,883,870 year-over-year[16] Research and Development - R&D expenses amounted to RMB 2,423,592, significantly higher than RMB 843,808 in the previous year, indicating a focus on innovation[21] - Research and development expenses for the first half of 2024 totaled RMB 4.55 billion, a 52% increase compared to RMB 2.99 billion in the same period of 2023[102][103] - Capitalized product development costs increased by RMB 4.55 billion, primarily related to the development of new energy smart vehicle models[104] Market Performance and Sales - The company achieved total sales of 955,730 vehicles in the first half of 2024, a significant increase of 41% year-on-year, with sales in the Chinese market reaching 758,302 vehicles, up 35%[93] - The average selling price per vehicle increased by RMB 4,000 to RMB 105,000, contributing to a 47% year-on-year increase in total revenue to RMB 107.3 billion[93] - The gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 15.1% despite intensified price competition in the Chinese automotive market[93] - Distribution and selling expenses rose by 33% to RMB 6.33 billion, primarily due to investments in the new energy vehicle brand and export business growth, although the expense ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points[93] Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company plans to expand its market presence and invest in new product development to enhance competitiveness in the electric vehicle sector[53] - The company plans to launch several new models in the second half of 2024, including the Galaxy E5 and Zeekr 7X, to expand its product lineup[105][106] - The company is actively expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, while also exploring local partnerships for assembly[112] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit committee has been established in accordance with listing rules to review and supervise the financial reporting process, risk management systems, and internal controls[122] - The unaudited interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2024, have been reviewed by the audit committee[122] - The interim report will include all information disclosed in the mid-year performance announcement for the first half of 2024[122]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is related to Guohai Securities and its research reports Core Points and Arguments - The call is intended for clients who meet Guohai Securities' investor suitability management requirements and invited clients only [1] - Guohai Securities disclaims any investment advice or decisions made based on the content of the call [1] - The meeting serves merely to relay certain viewpoints from Guohai Securities' published research reports, reflecting the judgment of their researchers on the day the full report was released [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - There is an emphasis on the limitation of liability regarding the information shared during the call, indicating that participants should not rely on it for making investment decisions [1]

极氛销量稳步增长，新品周期将至 121W品 an 吉利汽车 7 月泰现亮眼。7 月吉利汽车总销量 15.08 万辆，同比增长 12.8%，环比减 . 少 9.2%；其中新能源汽车销量 5.91 万辆，同比增长 44.0%，环比减少 10.5%；出 口 3.24 万辆，同比增长 64.8%，环比减少 8.4%。根据乘联会数据，7 月 1-28 日国 内乘用车批发销量同比下降 17%，环比下降 28%，预计吉利汽车整体销量同比增速 大幅好于行业平均水平。 极氣品牌销量同比稳步增长，新产品周期将至。7 月吉利品牌销量 11.39 万辆，同比 . 增长 9.0%，环比减少 6.3%；1-7 月累计销量 85.57 万辆，同比增长 30.1%，其中吉 利银河 7 月销售 1.67 万辆，环比增长 4.6%，连续五个月实现环比正增长，累计销量 超过 18 万辆；吉利中国星・高端系列 7 月销售 3.42 万辆，同比增长约 24%。7 月极 気品牌销量 1.57 万辆，同比增长 30.0%，环比减少 22.1%；1-7 月累计销量 10.35 万辆，同比增长 89.4%，极氪品牌 33 个月交付量突破 30 万辆，刷新纯电 ...

新能源车及出口发力促进盈利增长 买入（维持） 核心观点 ⚫ 1 季度营收及利润同比大幅增长。1 季度营业收入 523.15 亿元，同比增长 56.1%； 归母净利润 15.61 亿元，同比增长 118.6%。1 季度毛利率 13.7%，同比下降 0.5 个 百分点；1 季度期间费用率 11.9%，同比下降 1.2 个百分点，其中销售费用率/行政 费用率/财务费用率分别同比下降 0.1/1.0/0.2 个百分点。得益于 1 季度销量同比增长 及产品结构持续优化，公司营收端及利润端均实现大幅同比增长，利润端同比增速 大幅领先于营收端。 ⚫ 上半年销量快速增长，新能源及出口齐发力。上半年吉利集团累计销量 95.57 万 辆，同比增长 41.0%；上半年新能源累计销量 32.02 万辆，同比增长 111.8%，新能 源销量占比达 33.5%，较 23 年上半年提升 11.2 个百分点；上半年出口销量 19.74 万辆，同比增长 67.1%。分品牌看，上半年吉利品牌/极氪品牌/领克品牌销量分别达 74.19/8.79/12.60 万辆，同比分别增长 34.1%/106.1%/53.6%；上半年吉利银河系列 销量达 8. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [1][3] Core Views - In July, Geely's wholesale sales reached 150,782 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 9.16% and a year-on-year increase of 8.97% [2] - The company has launched multiple new models, enhancing its product matrix and improving user experience through upgrades [2] - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is set at 213.5 billion, 258.1 billion, and 300.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 16% [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July, Geely's brand sales included 113,855 units for Geely brand, 16,704 units for Galaxy, 15,655 units for Zeekr, and 21,272 units for Lynk & Co [2] - The total sales of new energy vehicles in July were 59,051 units, with a penetration rate of 39% [2] New Product Launches - New models include the Zeekr X starting at 179,000 yuan, the luxury MPV Zeekr 009 starting at 439,000 yuan, and the 2025 model of Jiaji starting at 109,700 yuan [2] - The OS 5.2 upgrade enhances driving safety and introduces new features like drift mode and launch control [2] Financial Forecast - The projected net profit for 2024 to 2026 is 7.9 billion, 11.5 billion, and 13.8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 49%, 45%, and 21% [3] - The expected EPS for the same period is 0.79, 1.14, and 1.37 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 6, and 5 [3]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|吉利汽车（00175） 新品周期开启，出海进程加速 诗券必闻读核李末页的支委声明 2024年08月03日 .报告 | 报告委总 2024 年 8 月 1 日，古利汽车发布 2024 年 7 月产领技报，公司 7 月失现汽车领圣 15.1 万辆， 网比+12.8%，环比-9.2%。2024 年 1-7 月汽车基计简查 110.7 万辆，网比+36.3%。7 月公司多 款新品陆续上市，金加送期以旧装新补贴力度装升，下半年公司简圣市望集特尚建增长态势。 | 分析师及联系人 态会 点点役 SAC: $0590523110004 请券必闻读核查未真的支卖声明 1 / 5 港宸公司点环 2024年08月03日 吉利汽车 (00175) 新品周期开启，出海进程加速 汽车/东周车达ओ 赵京评述：买入（贷村） 7. 72 毛え3 2 是 本 數 地 $1R$/文庫取名(百万取) 10, 063. 38/10, 063. 38 过境 李位 (官方考文) 77, 689. 31 永良才女户 ( 問 7. 63 定员员员员 53. 90 11. 08/7. 24 ~ ~ 內 ~ 為 / 最低 ( 冬 ...