出口表现稳健 银河 E5 即将上市 2024 年 08 月 02 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司发布 2024 年 7 月销量公告，7 月批发总销量 15.1 万辆， 同比+9.2%，环比-9.2%；1-7 月累计 110.7 万辆，同比+33.6%。其中，7 月新 能源销量 59,051 辆，同比+44.0%，环比-10.5%，渗透率 39.2%；1-7 月新能 源销售 37.9 万辆，同比+90.7%。 分品牌看：吉利品牌 7 月销量 11.4 万辆（银河 16,704 辆），1-7 月累计 85.6 万 辆（银河 9.8 万辆），同比+30.1%；极氪 7 月销量 15,655 辆，1-7 月累计 103,525 辆，同比+89.4%；领克 7 月销量 21,272 辆，1-7 月销售 147,272 辆，同比 +48.4%。 ➢ 7 月批发同比增长 新能源表现亮眼。受 7 月淡季影响，公司整体批发销量 环比略有下降，批发总销量 15.1 万辆，同比+9.2%，环比-9.2%。受益银河销量 提升及领克 07 emp 新车型上量，新能源销量表现强劲，7 月公司新能源销量 59,051 辆，同比+44.0%，环比- ...

吉利汽车(00175) 公 司 报 告│ 港 股 - 公 司 深 度 研 究 新能源转型加速,新车周期有望开启新一轮成长 投资要点: 吉利汽车作为国内优质自主品牌,2020 年至今新能源转型持续加速,极氪 001、星越等优质车型上市加速品牌革新。2024 年吉利汽车有望迎来全方面 的提升:1)内销燃油车中,博系列、星系列车型有望保持销量稳定,对应 市场份额的提升;2)新能源车中,极氪、领克、银河等品牌/系列车型有望 带动整体销量的提升;3)出口全面升级,出口市场及车型销量有望持续扩 张。所以我们认为,吉利汽车有望迎来销量和份额的快速提升。 燃油车:CMA 架构竞争力强,销量份额有望逆势增长 吉利 CMA 架构在动力性能、安全性、智能化程度方面均领先传统燃油车竞 品,星越 L、博越 L、领克 03 等 CMA 架构车型有望保持竞争优势,强大产 品力有望助力公司燃油车销量向上,8-20 万价格带区间内优势明显。考虑 到政策端加码以及新品陆续推出的背景下,星系、博系有望贡献主要增长 动能,我们预计 2024 年吉利燃油车销量有望达到 122.7 万辆,同比+3.6%。 新能源:多品牌策略领跑,车型迭代有望带动销量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][48]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong sales momentum, with 2023 sales exceeding 1.68 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and 2024 sales in the first five months reaching nearly 790,000 units, a 45% increase [3][16]. - The company is continuously iterating its technology platforms, investing over 20 billion RMB in the SEA architecture to create a leading global smart electric vehicle technology [20][22]. - The company is beginning to realize its smart technology outcomes, with the launch of the Starry AI model and the Starry Smart Driving system, enhancing its competitive edge in the automotive industry [33][38]. Sales Growth Momentum - In 2023, the company achieved sales of over 1.68 million units, with a 17.7% year-on-year growth, and 48.7 million units of new energy vehicles, accounting for 28.9% of total sales [3][16]. - The Zeekr brand saw a remarkable 65% increase in sales in 2023, with 11.9 million units sold, and a 112% increase in the first five months of 2024 [7]. - The Lynk & Co brand achieved over 220,000 units in 2023, a 22% increase, with 10.2 million units sold in the first five months of 2024, marking a 55% increase [10]. - The Galaxy series under the Geely brand sold 83,500 units in 2023, with 65,000 units sold in the first five months of 2024 [13]. - The company exported 274,000 units in 2023, a 38% increase, and 162,000 units in the first five months of 2024, a 69% increase [16]. Technology Platform Iteration - The SEA architecture is designed to break traditional automotive boundaries, focusing on user experience and integrating hardware, systems, and ecosystems [20]. - The Haohan-M architecture, with an 80% space utilization rate, redefines the spatial efficiency of electric vehicles [22][23]. - The e-CMA intelligent architecture integrates advanced safety features and self-developed software capabilities [27]. - The GEA global intelligent new energy architecture supports various energy forms, achieving comprehensive electrification [28]. Smart Technology Outcomes - The Starry Intelligent Computing Center enhances R&D efficiency by 20%, with a total cloud computing power of 10.2 billion operations per second as of April 2024 [33]. - The Starry AI model is the first full-stack self-developed AI model in the automotive industry, achieving a 4+ rating in the official evaluation by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology [35]. - The AI digital chassis enables advanced driving features, including autonomous drifting and crab mode [37]. - The Zeekr Haohan Smart Driving system received an L3 autonomous driving test license in June 2024, successfully passing various tests [38]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain strong sales growth, with projected net profits of 7.35 billion RMB, 11.62 billion RMB, and 15.68 billion RMB for 2024-2026 [43]. - The report estimates an EPS of 0.73 RMB, 1.15 RMB, and 1.56 RMB for the same period, with a target price range of 11.77 to 14.12 HKD based on a 15-18x PE ratio for 2024 [43][44].

公司研究/汽车与零配件 证券研究报告 上调 2024 年销量目标 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | 股票数据 | | |--------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 7 [ Table_StockInfo 月 2 日收盘价(港 元) ] | 8.48 | | 52 周股价波动(元) | 7.08-11.38 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股(百万股) | 10063/10063 | | 总市值 / 流通市值(百万港元) | 85337/85337 | | 相关研究 | | | 《 2023 年经营全面向好》 | 2024.03.30 | 《吉利汽车销量高歌猛进》2024.01.09 市场表现 吉利汽车 恒生指数 -30.00% -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 2023/7/3 2023/11/13 2024/3/25 | 沪深 300 对比 | 2M | 3M | |-------------------------|----- ...

公司研究 1Q24 业绩同比显著增长,子品牌势能持续进阶 ——吉利汽车(0175.HK)2024 年一季度业绩点评 要点 1Q24 公司业绩显著增长:1Q24 总收入同比+56.1%至人民币 523.2 亿元,归 母净利润同比+118.6%至人民币 15.6 亿元,剔除极氪亏损后 1Q24 归母净利 润为同比+43.7%至 25.9 亿元。我们测算,公司 1Q24 单车 ASP 同比+4.4%至 11.0 万元,单车盈利同比+46.2%至 0.3 万元,剔除极氪亏损后的单车盈利同 比-1.7%至 0.8 万元。1Q24 公司毛利率同比-0.5pcts 至 13.7%,SG&A 费用 率同比-1.1pcts 至 12.3%。我们认为,一季度业绩同比显著增长主要受益于, 1)销量提升及产品结构优化;2)极氪同比减亏;3)经营费用率管控良好。 极氪实现美股上市,单车显著减亏:5/10 极氪正式以"ZK"为代码在纽交所 挂牌上市,IPO 发行定价为 21 美元,累计发行 2100 万股美国存托股票(高 于前期计划的 1750 万股),募资约 4.41 亿美元。我们认为,1)传统车企 通常通过混改/子公司分拆上市等方式 ...

Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$14.00, representing an upside potential of 65% [1][3] Core Views - The company's 2024 Q1 revenue and profit saw significant year-on-year growth, driven by strong sales of mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles and overseas business [1] - The company's 2024 H1 sales volume exceeded expectations, with new energy vehicle penetration increasing by 10.5 percentage points to 33.5% [1] - The high-end brand Zeekr achieved sales of 87,870 units in 2024 H1, a year-on-year increase of 106.1%, solidifying its position in the top tier of new car-making forces [1] - The Galaxy series also performed well, with sales reaching 81,421 units in 2024 H1, establishing itself as a popular mid-to-high-end brand in the domestic market [1] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1 revenue reached RMB 52.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.1% [1] - Gross margin slightly decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.7% due to increased sales discounts amid intensified domestic competition [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 250.1% year-on-year to RMB 1.42 billion in 2024 Q1 [1] Product and Market Strategy - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2024 H2, including the Galaxy E5, Lynk & Co Z10, Zeekr Mix, and Zeekr CX1E, which are expected to further boost sales [1] - The company continues to strengthen its mid-to-high-end brand strategy and accelerate breakthroughs in intelligent technology, which is expected to drive further growth in vehicle sales in 2024 H2 [1] Overseas Expansion - The company's export sales in 2024 H1 reached 197,428 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.9% [2] - The company is expected to continue expanding its overseas markets, with further growth in export sales anticipated in 2024 H2 [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company is valued at 18x/15x/14x P/E for 2024-2026, with a target price of HK$14.00 [1] - Forecasted revenue for 2024 is RMB 234.8 billion, with net profit expected to reach RMB 7.47 billion [4] - The company's gross profit margin is projected to improve to 16.5% in 2024, up from 15.3% in 2023 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175 HK) and slightly raises the target price to HK$14.00, reflecting an upside potential of 65% from the current price of HK$8.480 [2][4]. Core Insights - Geely's sales volume for the first half of 2024 is expected to exceed 2 million units annually, driven by strong performance in mid-to-high-end electric vehicle brands and overseas markets [1][4]. - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 56.1% to RMB 52.3 billion in Q1 2024, with net profit soaring by 250.1% to RMB 1.42 billion [1][4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose by 10.5 percentage points to 33.5% in the first half of 2024, with high-end brand Zeekr achieving a 106.1% year-on-year sales growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Geely's revenue reached RMB 52.3 billion, a 56.1% increase year-on-year, while gross margin slightly decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.7% due to increased sales discounts amid intensified competition [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was RMB 1.42 billion, marking a substantial increase of 250.1% compared to the previous year [1][4]. Sales and Market Expansion - Geely's NEV sales strategy continues to gain traction, with the Zeekr brand selling 87,870 units in the first half of 2024, a 106.1% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top new energy vehicle manufacturers [1][4]. - The Galaxy series also performed well, with sales reaching 81,421 units in the first half of 2024, establishing it as a popular mid-to-high-end brand in the domestic market [1][4]. Product Development and Future Outlook - Geely plans to launch several new models in the second half of 2024, including the Galaxy E5 electric SUV and the Lynk & Co Z10, which are expected to further strengthen its mid-to-high-end brand strategy [1][4]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with export sales in the first half of 2024 increasing by 62.9% to 197,428 units [1][4].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Geely Auto aims for a group sales target of 2 million units in 2024, with multiple brands showing continuous growth [1] - Geely Auto's June wholesale sales reached 166,085 units, up 20.44% YoY and 3.38% MoM [3] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in June were 65,959 units, up 71.00% YoY and 12.42% MoM, with a NEV penetration rate of 40% [3] - Geely Auto's export sales in June were 35,347 units, up 56.22% YoY, accounting for 21.28% of total group sales [3] - The company's brand matrix is well-developed, with significant achievements in both domestic and overseas markets [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 213.465 billion in 2024E to RMB 300.070 billion in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 16% respectively [2][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 7.929 billion in 2024E to RMB 13.816 billion in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 49%, 45%, and 21% respectively [2][4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.79 in 2024E to RMB 1.37 in 2026E, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10x, 7x, and 6x [2][4] Market and Financial Data - Closing price: HKD 8.48 [5] - 52-week low/high: HKD 7.24/HKD 11.64 [5] - Price-to-book ratio: 1.08x [5] - Market capitalization: HKD 85.337 billion [5] - Total shares outstanding: 10,063.38 million [6] - Net asset per share: RMB 7.88 [6] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 53.90% [6] Brand Performance - Geely brand sales in June were 121,540 units, up 13.92% YoY and 1.06% MoM, with Galaxy sales at 15,975 units, up 12.56% MoM [3] - Zeekr brand sales in June were 20,106 units, up 89.32% YoY and 8.00% MoM [3] - Lynk & Co brand sales in June were 24,439 units, up 49.25% YoY and 12.22% MoM [3] Overseas Market Strategy - Geely's overseas market strategy has shown significant results, with the Emgrand model selling in 17 countries and cumulative sales exceeding 3.86 million units [4] - The company's export sales accounted for 21.28% of total group sales in June, with a YoY increase of 56.22% [3] Product Matrix and New Launches - Geely's domestic product matrix covers the 100,000-300,000 RMB price range, with models like the Lynk & Co 07 EM-P and Lynk & Co Z10 accelerating the brand's electrification transformation [4] - New launches include the Xingrui Longteng Edition, priced at RMB 99,700, and the new Boyue, priced between RMB 92,800 and RMB 118,800 [4]

Summary of Geely Automobile Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Geely Automobile - **Date**: July 2, 2024 Key Points Industry and Market Performance - Geely has shown a strong recovery from a low sales period over the past few years, maintaining robust sales momentum in both traditional and new energy vehicles [3][5] - The company has increased its annual sales target from 1.9 million to 2 million units due to strong sales performance in the first half of 2024 [12][22] Financial Performance - **Q1 2024 Sales**: Total sales reached 476,000 units, achieving 25% of the annual target, with a year-on-year growth of 49% [5] - **Q1 2024 Revenue**: Total revenue exceeded 52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.1%, with vehicle revenue surpassing 42.6 billion, growing by 59.5% [7] - **Profitability**: Shareholder earnings increased by 119% to 1.56 billion, while net cash reached 39.4 billion, indicating strong financial health [9] Product Development and Strategy - Geely plans to launch 2-3 new energy vehicle models under its three brands (Geely, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co) in 2024 [13][24] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product lineup with new technologies and models, including a new A-class electric vehicle and a hybrid SUV [25][26] Market Expansion - Geely's export sales have increased, with exports accounting for 18% of total sales, up from 16% [6] - The company has set a new export target of 380,000 units for 2024, expanding its presence in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [48] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from potential EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which could impact sales but are currently not expected to significantly affect overall performance [35] - Geely is also navigating the complexities of transitioning to electric vehicles while maintaining profitability in its traditional vehicle segments [31][32] Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about achieving the revised sales target and expects improved profitability in the second half of 2024 due to new product launches and cost reduction strategies [43][44] - The company is committed to maintaining control over its subsidiaries, including Zeekr, following its recent IPO [59][60] Additional Insights - Geely's strategy includes leveraging partnerships, such as with Renault for powertrain technology, to enhance its competitive edge in the global market [66][68] - The company emphasizes the importance of after-sales service as a key factor in establishing a strong international presence [47] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from Geely Automobile's conference call, highlighting its performance, strategies, and outlook in the automotive industry.

Summary of Geely Automobile Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Geely Automobile - **Date of Call**: July 3, 2024 Key Points Industry and Market Performance - Geely has shown a strong recovery from a low sales period over the past two to three years, maintaining robust sales momentum in both traditional and new energy vehicles [3][4] - The company has increased its annual sales target from 1.9 million to 2 million units, reflecting confidence in continued strong sales performance [13][24] Financial Performance - **Q1 2024 Sales**: Total sales reached 476,000 units, achieving 25% of the annual target, with a year-on-year growth of 49% [5] - **New Energy Vehicles**: Sales of new energy vehicles reached 144,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 141% [6] - **Total Revenue**: Q1 2024 revenue exceeded 52 billion, a 56.1% year-on-year increase, with vehicle revenue surpassing 42.6 billion, growing by 59.5% [7] - **Profitability**: Shareholder earnings increased by 119% to 1.56 billion, while net cash reached 39.4 billion, indicating strong cash reserves for future growth [9][10] Product Development and Launches - Geely plans to launch 2 to 3 new energy models across its three brands (Geely, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co) in 2024, with significant new product launches expected in the second half of the year [14][25][28] - The Zeekr brand achieved sales of 33,000 units in Q1, with revenue of 14.72 billion, reflecting a 70.7% year-on-year increase [11] Strategic Initiatives - Geely has signed a share purchase agreement with Saudi Aramco, which will enhance its strategic partnerships and market positioning [16] - The company is focusing on international expansion, with plans to increase its export target from 300,000 to 380,000 units, targeting markets in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [53] Challenges and Considerations - The introduction of a 21% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles by the EU is expected to have a limited impact on Geely's overall sales and profits, as the export volume to the EU is currently low [38] - Geely is addressing the challenges of varying profit margins between traditional and electric vehicles, with electric vehicle margins currently lower than traditional vehicles [34][35] Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about achieving a gross margin of 15% for the year, driven by increased sales volume and improved product mix [62] - The company is committed to maintaining control over its subsidiaries, including Zeekr, to ensure strategic alignment and operational efficiency [66][68] Additional Insights - Geely's strategy includes leveraging existing partnerships for production capabilities rather than solely relying on building new factories abroad, which can be costly [55] - The company is enhancing its after-sales service capabilities as a critical component of its international strategy [51] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting Geely's strong performance, growth strategies, and market challenges.