以下文章来源于海外独角兽 ，作者拾象投研团队 海外独角兽 . 研究科技大航海时代的伟大公司。 当大模型的"暴力美学"逐渐步入深水区，全球 AI 产业的叙事逻辑正在发生深刻演变。OpenAI、Google、Anthropic 三强割据，谁能率先推开 AGI 的大门？下一代 技术范式 continual learning（持续学习） 将如何颠覆现有格局？ 2026年1月10日的课程中，我们特别邀请到了拾象科技创始人兼 CEO 李广密老师讲授《2026AGI洞察与投资趋势》。 作为深度穿梭于硅谷与中国的一线投资人， 他将带我们跳出繁杂的现象，从宏观视角复盘 AI 军备竞赛，预判 2026 年的AI创业胜负手。 李广密老师立足于全球视野，深度复盘了过去三年 AI 浪潮的演进路径，前瞻性地提出了 2026 年 AGI 发展的核心判断。 李广密老师将结合其在硅谷的一手调研 经验，深入剖析顶级模型公司（OpenAI、Google、Anthropic）的战略分化，探讨算力基建（GPU与TPU）的阵营对抗，并揭示在"技术溢出"红利下，创业者如 何捕捉下一个千亿美金级别的"新物种"。 课程不仅涵盖了宏观的投资策略，更通过 Cur ...

Group 1 - The fourth quarter earnings season is ongoing, with major companies like Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Qualcomm, and Palantir reporting results [1] - As of January 30, 33% of S&P 500 companies have reported their fourth quarter results, with an estimated 11.9% increase in earnings per share, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth for the index [2] - Analysts had initially expected an 8.3% increase in earnings per share heading into the reporting period, which was a decrease from the previous quarter's 13.6% growth rate [3] Group 2 - Big Tech companies are setting the tone for the earnings season, with ongoing capital expenditures and themes such as artificial intelligence and economic policies continuing to influence the market [4] - Upcoming earnings reports will include updates from companies like Disney, Chipotle, PepsiCo, Uber, and Snap, indicating a broad range of sectors being analyzed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is currently experiencing signs of an AI bubble, despite the long-term bullish outlook on artificial intelligence. Group 1: Market Performance - The Invesco QQQ Trust, tracking the Nasdaq-100 index, has achieved a total return of 117% over the past three years, largely driven by the "Magnificent Seven" stocks and AI ventures [2]. Group 2: Warning Signs of an AI Bubble - **Enormous Capital Outlays**: Major data center operators, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, collectively spent hundreds of billions on AI-related capital expenditures last year, indicating a surge in investment activity [4]. - **Funding Challenges for OpenAI**: OpenAI plans to spend $1.4 trillion on computing resources over the next eight years, raising questions about funding sources despite reaching $20 billion in annualized revenue last year [5]. - **Financial Engineering**: Companies with strong net income are still raising capital through financial engineering, such as a $27 billion joint venture between Meta Platforms and Blue Owl Capital, which keeps debt off Meta's balance sheet [6]. - **Interconnectedness of AI Sector**: The interconnected nature of AI companies means that struggles within one entity could lead to broader issues across the sector [7]. Group 3: Long-Term Return Uncertainty - Despite rapid adoption of AI tools, with OpenAI's ChatGPT reaching 800 million weekly users and Alphabet's Gemini app having 650 million monthly active users, only 3% of AI users pay for premium access, raising doubts about the adequacy of returns on AI investments [8]. - There is a possibility that AI may only provide incremental benefits to the economy, potentially disappointing those who expect transformative changes akin to past innovations like PCs and mobile devices [9].

欧洲议会的报告显示，欧盟仍然依赖非欧盟国家提供超过80%的数字服务和基础设施。 法国开始推动数百万公务员使用自主研发的软件替代Zoom和微软的Teams，这标志着欧洲各国政府数十 年来摆脱对美国大型科技公司依赖的努力又迈出了新一步。 近期，法国总理勒科尔尼致函法国各部委，要求他们在2026年年底前将视频会议系统迁移到Visio—— 一款法国自主研发的Zoom替代软件。他在信中写道："为了保障公共电子通信的安全、保密性和稳定 性，必须部署一套由国家控制、基于自主技术且统一的视频会议解决方案。" 随后，同样的逻辑再次显现：法国政府阻止卫星运营商欧洲通信卫星公司（Eutelsat）将其地面天线业 务出售给私募股权公司EQT，理由是该集团具有战略意义，是特斯拉创始人马斯克旗下星链互联网服务 的竞争对手。 法国的举措紧随欧洲议会通过一项决议之后，该决议呼吁成员国"尽可能通过促进欧洲数字产品和服务 的采购来加强欧洲的技术主权"。 对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院研究员、法国经济研究中心主任赵永升对第一财经记者表示，上述 有关禁用Zoom的决策主要针对法国公共部门。他表示，面对美国在关税乃至地缘政治方面的咄咄逼 人，欧洲喊 ...

科技巨头们正在上演一场"现实模拟器"的军备竞赛——谷歌和蚂蚁集团几乎同时开放世界模型技术，这 场技术革命将彻底改变我们与数字世界的互动方式。 2026年1月30日凌晨，谷歌DeepMind宣布向美国AI Ultra订阅用户开放Project Genie体验入口。就在24小 时前，蚂蚁集团旗下灵波科技刚刚开源了LingBot-World。两大巨头的这一动作，标志着世界模型技术 正式从实验室走向商业应用。 行业影响已经开始显现。游戏开发中3D建模成本可能降低70%，具身智能训练效率提升3倍，自动驾驶 仿真测试成本有望下降85%。 技术路径的分化导致供应链呈现区域化特征：美国企业侧重商业API生态，中国企业聚焦垂直场景适 配。欧盟则在两者间寻找平衡，将通用大模型纳入高风险系统监管。 商业化进程面临两大挑战：内容审核问题（谷歌采用实时过滤，蚂蚁依赖社区监管）和算力门槛 （LingBot-World需要企业级CPU支持）。 从技术参数看，两家公司采取了截然不同的策略。谷歌采用125美元/月的订阅制，仅限美国成年用户； 蚂蚁则选择了完全开源。但两者都实现了关键突破：交互延迟控制在1秒内，连续生成时长达到10分 钟，物理碰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season is expected to provide significant insights into various sectors, including technology, healthcare, energy, consumer goods, real estate, and finance, with major companies set to report their quarterly results [2][3][5]. Technology Sector - Major tech companies such as Amazon (AMZN), Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), AMD, Qualcomm (QCOM), and others will report earnings, focusing on AI spending, cloud service demand, and advertising trends [2][3]. - Amazon is anticipated to show a profit increase of approximately 4% year-over-year, with revenue growth of about 12%, driven by resilient e-commerce and AWS cloud services [15][19]. - Google is expected to report a profit growth of around 23% and revenue growth of about 16%, with a significant focus on its Gemini AI applications and cloud service profitability [12][14]. Healthcare Sector - Pfizer (PFE) is projected to see a decline in both revenue and profit, with expectations of $25.6 billion in revenue and $1.58 in EPS [8][9]. - Analysts are divided on Pfizer's outlook, with some maintaining a "buy" rating due to its strong pipeline in oncology and vaccines, while others express concerns over profit margins and growth pressures [10][12]. Consumer and Media Sector - Companies like Disney (DIS) and PayPal (PYPL) will report earnings, with Disney expected to see a profit decline of about 10% year-over-year, but analysts remain optimistic about its long-term growth strategy [5][6]. - Disney's expansion into new markets, such as the Abu Dhabi theme park, is seen as a positive long-term investment [5][6]. Energy and Materials Sector - Key players like ConocoPhillips (COP) and Phillips 66 (PSX) will disclose earnings, reflecting the ongoing dynamics in the energy market [3]. Real Estate and Finance Sector - The earnings reports from companies like Simon Property Group (SPG) and Prudential Financial (PRU) will provide insights into the real estate and financial sectors' performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - Google's Project Genie has been perceived as a potential "game-ender," leading to a significant drop in the market value of major gaming companies like Take-Two, Roblox, and Unity, which collectively lost approximately $19.5 billion in a single trading day [4][5][21]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the launch of Project Genie, Take-Two's stock fell by 7.93%, Roblox dropped by 13.17%, and Unity experienced a dramatic decline of 24.22% [4][21]. - The combined market value loss of these three companies amounted to around $19.5 billion [5]. - Investors reacted with panic, fearing that the capabilities of Project Genie could drastically lower the barriers to game development, threatening the existing business models of these companies [20][22]. Group 2: Project Genie Capabilities - Project Genie is powered by the Genie 3 universal model, which aims to understand physical laws and simulate real-world dynamics [8]. - It features three core capabilities: World Sketching, World Exploration, and World Remixing [9][11][15]. - World Sketching allows users to create environments using simple text prompts or images without needing coding skills [9]. - World Exploration enables real-time generation of game environments as users navigate through them, contrasting with traditional static game maps [12][14]. - World Remixing allows users to create new content based on existing creations, potentially fostering a new user-generated content ecosystem [15][17]. Group 3: Developer and Player Perspectives - Many developers and players believe the market's reaction is overblown, as the technology is still immature and cannot fully replace human game developers [5][6]. - Current outputs from Project Genie are often incomplete, lacking sound, scoring systems, and stability, leading to a perception of it as a "half-finished" product [24][28]. - Developers express concerns that Project Genie relies on a vast dataset of publicly available game content, which raises issues of originality and copyright [28]. Group 4: Future Implications - Despite its current limitations, industry leaders are optimistic about the future integration of AI in game development, with potential applications in quality assurance and concept design [31]. - The gaming community remains skeptical, fearing that an over-reliance on AI could lead to a decline in the quality and creativity of games, resulting in a "garbage dump" of algorithmically generated content [31].

Core Insights - Google billionaire Sergey Brin has been associated with two extravagant property purchases in neighboring states [1] Group 1 - Sergey Brin's recent property acquisitions highlight his continued investment in real estate [1]

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is a technology conglomerate and the parent of Google, headquartered in Mountain View, California. Alphabet operates across diverse segments, including Google Services (search, advertising, Chrome, YouTube, and more), Google Cloud (cloud infrastructure and AI), and Other Bets (emerging technologies and ventures). The company has grown into one of the world’s most valuable firms, with a market cap of around $4.1 trillion, reflecting its dominant position in digital advertising, cloud co ...

Industry Dynamics - The first batch of game licenses for 2026 has been officially issued, totaling 182 games, including 177 domestic games and 5 imported games, marking a high value for recent years [3][4] - Notable games that received licenses include NetEase's "Yao Yao Chess," 37 Interactive's "Douluo Dalu: Qicheng," and Giant Network's "Moonlight Night: Master Duel" [4] Company Updates - NetEase's "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" won multiple awards at the 2025 TapTap Annual Game Awards, including Best Game and Best Narrative [5] - Century Huatong forecasts a revenue of approximately 38 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 68%, with net profit expected to surge by 357.47% to 475.34% [6] - Perfect World anticipates turning a profit in 2025, projecting a net profit of 720 million to 760 million yuan [7] - Gigabit expects a net profit of 1.69 billion to 1.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79% to 97% [8] - Glacier Network predicts a turnaround with a net profit of 436 million to 516 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 247 million yuan in the previous year [9] - Electric Soul Network forecasts a loss of 160 million to 230 million yuan for 2025, marking its first annual loss since going public [10] - NetEase's Montreal studio has reportedly undergone layoffs, primarily affecting the quality assurance department [11] Overseas and Compliance - Valve, the parent company of Steam, is facing a collective lawsuit in the UK, accused of abusing its dominant position in the PC gaming market, with claims for damages amounting to 6.56 billion pounds (approximately 62.40 billion yuan) [12] - Google has launched a new interactive world AI creation tool, Project Genie, which allows users to generate playable 3D environments [13] - Ubisoft plans to lay off up to 200 employees at its Paris headquarters following a restructuring announcement [14]