华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 415.00 何翩翩 研究员 证券研究报告 谷歌 (GOOGL US) 高 CapEx 投入强化云业务增长动能 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 夏路路 研究员 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 丁骄琬 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040003 dingjiaowan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 易楚妍 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 牟睿捷* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070064 mouruijie@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 4 日) | 333.04 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 4,018,794 | | 6 ...

Group 1 - The CEOs of major tech companies dismiss concerns that AI will erode the competitive moat of traditional software companies, despite significant stock declines in recent months [1] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang argues that the idea of the tools industry declining due to AI is illogical, emphasizing that both humans and robots will continue to use existing tools rather than reinvent them [1] - Major enterprise software stocks like Palantir and Oracle have seen declines of approximately 12% over the past three trading days, with other companies like Salesforce, SAP, ServiceNow, Snowflake, and Microsoft also experiencing significant drops [1] Group 2 - Investors are worried that SaaS companies' clients may develop internal software solutions using AI tools from providers like Anthropic, reducing reliance on established vendors like Salesforce [2] - Concerns are heightened by the release of Anthropic's digital assistant Claude Cowork, which automates tasks for legal, sales, and marketing teams [2] - Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Arm CEO Rene Haas echo Huang's sentiments, suggesting that the fears surrounding software stocks are unfounded [2] Group 3 - Pichai notes that Google's software clients, including Salesforce, Intuit, and ServiceNow, are integrating Gemini into their workflows to enhance their products [3] - Haas describes the fear driving the software stock sell-off as a "mini-hysteria," with analysts agreeing that the strict requirements for data governance, security, and compliance present significant challenges for new entrants and companies developing in-house solutions [4] - Analysts believe it is too early to determine which companies will emerge as winners or losers, as enterprises are still in the early stages of adopting AI tools [4] Group 4 - Leading software companies are defending their competitive positions in an increasingly AI-driven market, with ServiceNow's CEO stating that speculation about AI consuming software companies is unfounded [5] - The CEO emphasizes that AI will not replace software companies but rather relies on them [5]

Core Insights - The four major U.S. tech companies are projected to collectively spend approximately $650 billion on capital expenditures by 2026, representing a growth of about 60% compared to the previous year, indicating a renewed surge in global data center construction [1] Company Summaries - Meta is expected to reach a capital expenditure of up to $135 billion in 2026, reflecting an increase of approximately 87% [1] - Microsoft anticipates a year-over-year capital expenditure growth of 66% in the second fiscal quarter of 2026 [1] - Alphabet has announced a capital expenditure plan of $185 billion [1] - Amazon forecasts its capital expenditures to reach as high as $200 billion in 2026 [1]

分析师们还谈到了加密货币市场的波动性，Kilburg将MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)比作"一把落刀"，该股已 从历史高点下跌了72%。Kilburg 表示，"加密货币整体上正处于一个考验的时刻"，并指出在困境时 期，加密货币"会变得过于冷淡，并且与整体全球宏观情绪不符"。 在人工智能快速发展的背景下，市场催生了"AI替代"恐慌情绪，美股软件板块近期遭遇大幅抛售。在这 种背景下，除了重点的软件股，高盛点名另类资产管理公司和直接贷款机构也受到冲击。但包括华尔街 投行Wedbush分析师在内的一些专家仍看到相关的投资机会。 Wedbush Securities全球科技研究主管Dan Ives表示，今年将是苹果(AAPL.US)的突破之年。在接受采访 时，Ives预测，人工智能可能会使公司每股估值增加"75 至 100 美元"，他驳斥了对欧洲监管机构的担 忧，并指出苹果在消费者人工智能领域采取了积极的战略定位。他将这种情况与Alphabet(GOOGL.US) 去年的强劲表现进行了比较。 KKM Financial 的创始人、首席执行官兼首席投资官 Jeff Kilburg 指出，投资者一直在抛售英伟 ...

= 玉 本 金 苹果、英伟达、谷歌押注Al 电子产业链有望乘势崛起 无论是英伟达的巨额投资,还是谷歌TPU的明确量产 计划,都证实了AI算力需求强劲,这为半导体、服务器 等中上游产业链提供了持续的订单保障。苹果考虑分 散芯片代工、谷歌深化与特定元件商的合作,凸显了供 应链安全的重要性,这为中国相关产业链优质供应商 创造了切入或提升份额的机会。 电子剧 型 공 515260 代码 联接A 012550 联接C 012551 荟聚电子板块核心龙头 拥抱科技巨头 抢占发展先机 电子ETF标的指数覆盖热门科技概念,苹果、英伟达、谷 歌产业链权重占比分别为45.19%、27.87%、21.85%,深 度绑定全球科技龙头成长红利,有望受益于科技巨头产 业扩张与技术创新。 英伟达产业链 苹果产业链 谷歌产业链 : 45% = 733% r 要 。 其股上市公司 以上公司仪作为背景就明 不代表该基金投资方向 n will and the will be the will be the will be the will be the will be the will be the with lll/得为王 电子板块迎 "喜报潮 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The latest financial reports from major tech giants indicate that the AI narrative is entering a new phase, where the market is systematically evaluating the actual contributions of AI to revenue structure, profitability, and cash flow, rather than just technological advancement or user scale [6][19] - Google has successfully integrated AI into its core businesses, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency, while Microsoft is focusing on building a new productivity ecosystem through AI, which may take longer to reflect in financial statements [6][21] - The differentiation in AI narratives is leading to a revaluation of companies based on their ability to demonstrate sustainable profitability from AI investments [21] Summary by Sections Google - Google reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with revenue of $113.83 billion, up 18% year-on-year, and net profit of $34.46 billion, up 29.8% [9] - The cloud business saw a significant revenue increase of 48% year-on-year, driven by strong enterprise AI demand, with operating profit reaching $5.3 billion, reflecting a profit margin increase from 17.5% to 30.1% [11] - Capital expenditures for Google are projected to rise significantly, with $27.9 billion in Q4 2025 and an annual total of $91.4 billion, primarily focused on technology infrastructure [12] Microsoft - Microsoft achieved revenue of $81.3 billion in FY2026 Q2, a 17% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 60% to $38.5 billion, influenced by OpenAI investment returns [15] - The Microsoft Cloud segment generated $51.5 billion in revenue, up 26%, indicating strong growth in enterprise AI and cloud services [15] - Azure's growth remains robust at nearly 40%, but there are signs of a slight slowdown in growth rate, with capital expenditures reaching $37.5 billion, focused on AI infrastructure [16][17]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 592.58 points, a decline of 1.20%, closing at 48,908.72 points [2] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 363.99 points, down 1.59%, ending at 22,540.59 points [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 84.32 points, a 1.23% drop, closing at 6,798.40 points [2] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Microsoft down nearly 5%, Amazon falling over 4%, and Tesla dropping more than 2% [6] - The performance of the "Tech Seven" index showed a decrease of 1.75% [7] - Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in data centers and chips, raising concerns among investors about profit pressures before returns materialize [7] Commodity Market Movements - Crude oil prices fell after a previous increase, with WTI settling at $63.29 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.8% to $67.55 per barrel [9] - Silver prices saw a significant drop, with a decline of 18% on Thursday, closing at $72.12 per ounce [10] - Bitcoin fell below $65,000, erasing all gains since Trump's election, marking a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market [12][15] Economic Indicators - The number of planned layoffs in January reached the highest level for that month since the global financial crisis, while hiring intentions hit a record low [5] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose significantly, reaching the highest level since early December, reversing a recent downward trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet reported strong Q4 results with significant revenue growth, but concerns over its high spending plans led to a slight dip in stock price [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q4 sales reached a record $97.23 billion, exceeding estimates by 2% and increasing 19% year-over-year, driven by a 48% surge in Google Cloud revenue to $17.66 billion [3]. - Q4 net income was a record $34.46 billion, translating to adjusted earnings of $2.82 per share, which beat expectations by nearly 10% and increased 31% from $2.15 a year ago [4]. - For the full fiscal year 2025, Alphabet's revenue surpassed $400 billion for the first time, totaling $403 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EPS rising 34% to $10.13 [6]. Cloud and AI Focus - Google Cloud backlog reached $240 billion at the end of Q4, reflecting a 55% sequential increase, indicating strong demand for AI-driven services [8]. - Alphabet's capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double the $91 billion to $93 billion spent in 2025, focusing on AI compute capacity and cloud infrastructure [9]. Return on Investment - Alphabet boasts a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 31.6%, significantly above the 20% benchmark, suggesting effective capital utilization despite increased spending concerns [10]. - The company has the highest ROIC among major cloud service competitors, indicating strong profitability potential in the AI sector [11]. Strategic Positioning - Alphabet is positioning itself to lead in AI infrastructure and enterprise AI services, although its capital expenditure guidance raises questions about near-term profitability [12]. - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with over $98 billion in cash and equivalents, and its stock trades at a reasonable 30X forward earnings multiple [14].

Core Insights - Omdia's latest analysis indicates that AI, cybersecurity, robotics, and sustainability are accelerating their integration, reshaping the Pro AV market ahead of the Integrated Systems Europe (ISE) 2026 event in Barcelona, scheduled for February 3-6, 2026 [1] Group 1: AI-Driven AV Technology - AI is redefining the Pro AV industry, extending its impact beyond software to dedicated hardware innovations optimized for AI. Manufacturers are expected to showcase AI-driven AV technologies that upgrade professional displays from mere content playback devices to intelligent interactive terminals [2] - These displays will integrate multimodal perception capabilities, including visual, voice, and environmental awareness, combined with edge AI reasoning for real-time, personalized content presentation and adaptive content management [2] - A key challenge for the industry is scaling these solutions and promoting them across various verticals, which relies on ecosystem collaboration, supply chain maturity, and the continuous improvement of industry standards [2] Group 2: Unified Communication and Collaboration Ecosystem - Major collaboration platforms like Microsoft Teams, Zoom, and Google are expected to showcase integrated solutions aimed at simplifying Pro AV deployment and providing a consistent collaboration experience across various meeting spaces [2] - As enterprises continue to upgrade meeting rooms and office spaces, platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Zoom, and Google Meet are becoming standard for collaboration, leveraging their deep integration advantages within their ecosystems [2] - There is an increasing investment in officially certified collaboration display devices and video conferencing terminals optimized for Teams, Zoom, and Google Meet, although the lack of native interoperability between these platforms remains a significant challenge for enterprises seeking flexibility and a unified experience [3] Group 3: Emerging Display Technologies - Innovations in electronic paper technology are being pursued, with advantages such as glare-free and flicker-free displays, energy efficiency, and eye protection. However, current size limitations (primarily below 31.5 inches) restrict its application mainly to indoor or semi-outdoor environments [6] - Micro-LED technology is driving the transition of display products from "traditional screens" to "spatial interactive interfaces." While pixel pitch is not expected to shrink below 0.3mm in the short term, cost reductions and yield improvements are anticipated by 2026 [6] - The ISE 2026 event may also showcase higher brightness fixed-size outdoor displays, 21:9 all-in-one display products, larger OLED displays with professional AV characteristics, and other cutting-edge display technology products [6]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 592.58 points, a decrease of 1.20%, closing at 48,908.72 points [4] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 363.99 points, down 1.59%, ending at 22,540.59 points [4] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 84.32 points, a decline of 1.23%, closing at 6,798.40 points [4] Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Microsoft down nearly 5%, Amazon falling over 4%, and Tesla dropping more than 2% [9] - The overall sentiment in the tech sector suggests a potential end to the era of tech giants leading the market, as software stocks have seen substantial sell-offs [11] Economic Indicators - A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that U.S. companies' layoff plans in January reached the highest level for that month since the global financial crisis, while hiring intentions fell to the lowest point [7] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a significant increase in first-time unemployment claims, reaching the highest level since early December [7] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell after a two-day increase, with WTI settling at $63.29 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.8% to $67.55 per barrel [14] - Silver prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping 18% at one point, with the closing price at $72.12 per ounce, and later falling below $70 per ounce [14][16] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin saw a decline of 3.54%, touching $60,000, and has dropped over 20% in the past five days [20] - Ethereum fell nearly 3%, dropping below $1,800 [17] - Over the last 24 hours, more than 577,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $2.601 billion [20]