高盛(GS.US)最新收盘价为893.48美元。从股价走势来看，其上周涨幅达 0.6%，过去一个月累计上涨 15.4%，年内涨幅更是高达 55.4%，过去一年涨幅为 61.1%。不仅如此，基于这些涨幅，高盛三年累计 涨幅已攀升至 178.8%，五年累计涨幅更是飙升至 292.8%。在股价经历如此巨幅拉升之后，此时买入高 盛股票，究竟还算不算一笔明智的投资决策?又或者，市场狂欢已然接近尾声，在这个价位入场，投资 者是否只会面临过高的风险? 这轮行情得以蓬勃发展的主要驱动力，源自市场对高盛业务布局的乐观展望。具体而言，市场看好高盛 不断拓展的财富管理与交易业务，同时也对其重新聚焦机构与投资银行业务(而非此前开展的消费银行 业务试验)充满期待。此外，投资者对管理层战略方向的调整以及资本返还方案的兴趣也日益浓厚，这 便很好地解释了市场情绪为何如此高涨。 即便当前市场呈现出这般火热态势，但市场对高盛的估值评价却呈现出好坏参半的局面——有一半的估 值指标显示其股价被低估，而另一半指标则表明其估值处于合理区间。接下来，本文将运用不同的估值 方法进行详细拆解分析，并进一步探讨一种更为精细的定价思路。 方法 1：超额收益模型 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.36% at 3890.45 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.66% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.49%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.75% at 25690.53 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 1.12% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.68%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 2211.864 million HKD[1] U.S. Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs and Castle Securities are optimistic about the "Christmas rally" in U.S. stocks, citing historical data showing the S&P 500 index has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December since 1928, with an average increase of 1.3%[8] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.38% to 48134.89 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.88% to 6834.5 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.31%[1] ByteDance Financial Projections - ByteDance is expected to achieve a profit of approximately 50 billion USD by 2025, marking a record year for the company as it expands into e-commerce and new markets[8] - The company has reportedly generated around 40 billion USD in net profit in the first three quarters of this year, indicating strong growth potential[12] Sector Highlights - Real estate services and development sectors are showing active performance in the A-share market[1] - Coal, automotive, and healthcare sectors led the gains in the Hong Kong market[1]

格隆汇12月22日｜高盛分析师发布报告指出，中国企业盈利明年可能增长14%，2027年或增长12%，有 助于提振股市表现。在"希望到增长"的周期中，将存在10%的估值重估潜力，Kinger Lau等分析师在报 告中写道，重申中国股市到2027年可能上涨38%。上市公司海外营收增长预计将推动MSCI中国指数成 分股盈利到2030年每年增加约1.5%，中国AI科技生态系统的估值已重新评估，但考虑到中国在资本支 出方面的潜在增长空间以及对人工智能商业化的重视程度，与美国相比仍然显得便宜。由于贸易情况好 于预期，出口股表现优于消费股。 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs projects global GDP growth to be 2.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 2.5% [1] - The U.S. economy is expected to outperform other major developed economies, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.6% in 2026, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1] - China's GDP growth is anticipated to be 4.8% in 2026, exceeding market expectations, supported by strong export performance despite weak domestic demand [1] - The Eurozone's economic outlook is less favorable, with a projected GDP growth of 1.3%, although fiscal stimulus in Germany and stable growth in Spain may mitigate some structural challenges [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - Despite stable overall output growth, improvements in the labor market may lag behind economic expansion, particularly in the U.S., where rising productivity increases the economic growth threshold needed for job creation [1] - Goldman Sachs expects inflation to decline more rapidly in 2026, with core inflation rates in the U.S. and the U.K. dropping from around 3% to near 2% by the end of 2026, aided by factors such as easing tariff impacts and slowing wage growth [2] - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0% to 3.25% [2] - The macroeconomic outlook is seen as supportive for stock markets and many emerging market assets, although high valuations, particularly in AI-related sectors, and a weak labor market may increase market volatility [2]

美国第二大银行——美国银行(BAC.US)——的股价在12月创下历史新高，终于超过了其在2006年、金 融危机前达到的峰值。美国规模最大的摩根大通(JPM.US)以及第四大的富国银行(WFC.US)的股价目前 也都处在历史高位。花旗集团(C.US)的股价则在七年来首次超过其每股账面价值，但仍较其2000年的历 史峰值低约80%。 一项追踪这些银行及美国另外20家最大放贷机构的关键指数——KBW银行指数(BKX)——今年迄今已 上涨29%，跑赢标普500指数13个百分点。富国银行分析师迈克.梅奥(Mike Mayo)表示："这无疑比我们 年初预期的上涨空间更大。"他补充称："大型银行在2026年将再次跑赢大盘。" 美国最大的银行正在以强势姿态结束2025年——股价创下历史新高，资产负债表规模更大，同时享有过 去15年来前所未有的监管自由度。在未来几年里，这个行业及其头部机构计划把这股势头转化为一段持 续的增长故事。 与此同时，自2025年年初以来，摩根大通的市值已增加约2000亿美元，使其更接近成为全球首家市值达 到1万亿美元的银行。自2019年以来，摩根大通一直向投资者承诺，在整个经济周期中实现17%的 RO ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will yield positive returns by 2026, although the forecasted index return rate will be lower than in 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The expected stock market return rate in USD is 13%, with a total return including dividends of 15%, primarily driven by profit growth rather than valuation increases [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in March and June of next year [1] Group 2: Comparative Market Performance - The U.S. stock market has underperformed compared to other markets for the first time in 15 years, with higher returns coming from Europe, Asia, and emerging markets [1] - This trend of U.S. stock market underperformance is expected to continue, with a slight lag anticipated again in 2026 [1] Group 3: Sector Insights - There is a noted shift in technology capital expenditure towards "old economy" sectors, which is expected to boost growth prospects in infrastructure-related industries [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month forecast for the European STOXX index from 595 points to 615 points [1]

市场沸腾之际，投资者发现高盛、摩根士丹利、瑞银等外资巨头早已潜伏其中——今年三季度，这些机构精准布局了7只无人驾驶概念股，今日3只涨停的股 票均在其列。 2025年12月19日，A股无人驾驶板块掀起涨停潮。 雷尔伟暴涨12.97%，万隆科技拉升11.82%，浙江世宝封死10%涨停板。 | 2025-12-03 | | | 2024-12-31 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 前十大流通股东累计持有:1119.45万股,累计占流通股比:15.01%,较上期增加217.83万股 | | | | | | 机构或基金名称 | 持有数量(股) | 持股变化(股) | 占流通股比例 | 变动比 | | 许泉海 | 345.17万 | 不变 | 4.63% | 不变 | | 张建飞 | 157.20万 | 新进 | 2.11% | 新进 | | 陈海华 | 137.73万 | 新进 | 1.85% | 新进 | | 高盛国际-自有资金 | 109.78万 | 新进 | 1.47% | 新讲 | | 张广东 | 90.58万 | 不变 | 1.21% | 不要 | | 金益红 | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities market, particularly the impact of the US-China AI and geopolitical power race on commodity prices and supply dynamics [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The US-China competition is a significant driver for commodity investments, particularly gold, as emerging market (EM) central banks diversify into gold to hedge against geopolitical risks [2][6]. - A long-term bullish outlook for gold is maintained, with expectations for the price to rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 [2][13][82]. - Commodities are viewed as portfolio insurance due to increasing supply concentration and geopolitical tensions, which raise disruption risks [2][20]. Specific Commodity Insights - **Gold**: Central banks are expected to continue diversifying into gold, with a projected average purchase of 70 tonnes per month in 2026, significantly higher than pre-2022 levels [15]. - **Copper vs. Aluminum**: A long copper and short aluminum trade is recommended due to supply constraints in copper and increased aluminum production driven by China's security of supply initiatives [2][10][33]. - **Oil**: A surplus in the oil market is anticipated for 2026, with Brent and WTI prices expected to average $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively [60][61]. - **Natural Gas**: A global gas glut is expected, with European natural gas prices projected to decline by approximately 35% by mid-2027 due to the largest LNG supply wave ever [2][67][71]. Market Dynamics - The US power market is tightening due to a surge in data center demand, which is expected to lead to higher prices and potential outages [47][52]. - The report highlights the contrasting power market conditions between the US and China, with the US facing capacity constraints while China has ample spare capacity [53][56]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic commodity control cycles, particularly in the context of rare earths and critical minerals, as countries increasingly insulate their supply chains [21][26]. - The potential for significant LNG supply growth is noted, with expectations for a 50% increase in global LNG exports by 2030, which will reshape the natural gas market [67][70]. - The report also discusses the long-term outlook for various commodities, forecasting declines in aluminum, lithium, and iron ore prices due to increased supply from Chinese investments [42][41]. Conclusion - The commodities market is influenced by a complex interplay of geopolitical factors, supply dynamics, and technological advancements, with significant implications for investment strategies in the coming years [2][3][20].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has abandoned the second round of layoffs for the second half of the year, with M&A revenue in Q2 soaring by 71% year-on-year [1] - JPMorgan plans to increase bonuses for its investment banking and trading departments by approximately 15% [1] - The financial services sector in Hong Kong has fully recovered, ranking first globally, driven by government support and policies in the Greater Bay Area [1] Group 2 - There is a fierce competition for ESG talent among major financial institutions, with many stating that they have budgets approved but cannot find suitable candidates [2] - The demand for ESG-related positions is increasing, with firms like Ernst & Young offering salaries as high as 50K for ESG roles [3][4] - The lack of professionals with both financial expertise and ESG knowledge is evident, making such individuals highly sought after in the job market [7] Group 3 - The Shanghai Human Resources Bureau has included the CFA and Sustainable Investing Certificate in its list of recognized qualifications, providing benefits for holders [6] - The global sustainable finance market has surpassed $35 trillion, with the U.S. alone accounting for $17 trillion, highlighting the financial impact of ESG [15] - By 2025, over 60 countries will implement mandatory ESG disclosures, affecting more than 80% of multinational companies [16] Group 4 - The job market for ESG roles is expanding, with positions such as ESG investment analysts and green finance product managers emerging, offering salaries ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 [25] - Hong Kong's government has initiated a "talent grab" plan to attract ESG professionals, recognizing the shortage in this area [26] - Financial professionals with ESG knowledge are considered a scarce resource, making them highly competitive in the job market [28] Group 5 - The CFA Institute has introduced the Sustainable Investment Certificate, which is recognized for its high industry credibility [41] - Local governments are incentivizing ESG practices, with rewards for companies achieving high ESG ratings and support for ESG talent [42] - Practical experience in ESG, combined with knowledge and certification, is essential for professionals looking to enhance their employability in this field [38][50]

格隆汇12月21日｜大宗交易先驱Robert Mnuchin(罗伯特·姆努钦)在位于美国康涅狄格州Bridgewater的家 中去世，时年92岁。姆努钦在高盛集团工作过33年，期间帮助该公司成为大宗交易的创新者，服务于大 型机构客户的需求，成为"公认的大宗交易泰斗"。从高盛/华尔街退休之后，姆努钦化身艺术品经纪 商。 ...