Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has abandoned the second round of layoffs for the second half of the year, with M&A revenue in Q2 soaring by 71% year-on-year [1] - JPMorgan plans to increase bonuses for its investment banking and trading departments by approximately 15% [1] - The financial services sector in Hong Kong has fully recovered, ranking first globally, driven by government support and policies in the Greater Bay Area [1] Group 2 - There is a fierce competition for ESG talent among major financial institutions, with many stating that they have budgets approved but cannot find suitable candidates [2] - The demand for ESG-related positions is increasing, with firms like Ernst & Young offering salaries as high as 50K for ESG roles [3][4] - The lack of professionals with both financial expertise and ESG knowledge is evident, making such individuals highly sought after in the job market [7] Group 3 - The Shanghai Human Resources Bureau has included the CFA and Sustainable Investing Certificate in its list of recognized qualifications, providing benefits for holders [6] - The global sustainable finance market has surpassed $35 trillion, with the U.S. alone accounting for $17 trillion, highlighting the financial impact of ESG [15] - By 2025, over 60 countries will implement mandatory ESG disclosures, affecting more than 80% of multinational companies [16] Group 4 - The job market for ESG roles is expanding, with positions such as ESG investment analysts and green finance product managers emerging, offering salaries ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 [25] - Hong Kong's government has initiated a "talent grab" plan to attract ESG professionals, recognizing the shortage in this area [26] - Financial professionals with ESG knowledge are considered a scarce resource, making them highly competitive in the job market [28] Group 5 - The CFA Institute has introduced the Sustainable Investment Certificate, which is recognized for its high industry credibility [41] - Local governments are incentivizing ESG practices, with rewards for companies achieving high ESG ratings and support for ESG talent [42] - Practical experience in ESG, combined with knowledge and certification, is essential for professionals looking to enhance their employability in this field [38][50]

格隆汇12月21日｜大宗交易先驱Robert Mnuchin(罗伯特·姆努钦)在位于美国康涅狄格州Bridgewater的家 中去世，时年92岁。姆努钦在高盛集团工作过33年，期间帮助该公司成为大宗交易的创新者，服务于大 型机构客户的需求，成为"公认的大宗交易泰斗"。从高盛/华尔街退休之后，姆努钦化身艺术品经纪 商。 ...

Depiction of the banking district in a large city, with an arrow symbolizing bullish momentum. Key Points Bank stocks are outperforming even as the Fed shifts to a softer monetary stance, with major names like Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo showing strong 2025 gains. Citigroup Inc. has surged nearly 60% YTD, driven by earnings beats, restructuring momentum, and a fresh J.P. Morgan upgrade. While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows strong operational results, valuation concerns are growing; Wells Fargo ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a resurgence of traditional diversified investment strategies centered around index ETFs amidst an unprecedented AI investment boom in 2025, highlighting the strong performance of diversified asset allocation compared to concentrated bets on major tech stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, there is a noticeable rotation in global stock markets from tech stocks to value and cyclical sectors, indicating a shift towards diversified investment strategies that have generated significant excess alpha returns [1][3]. - Major Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, predict a continued rotation in 2026 towards traditional value stocks, small caps, and cyclical sectors, suggesting that non-tech stocks may yield better returns than popular AI tech stocks [2][3]. Group 2: Performance of Investment Strategies - A simple stock-bond portfolio achieved double-digit gains in 2025, marking the best year since 2019, while multi-asset quantitative strategies significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index [4]. - Cambria Investments' ETF, which covers a broad range of global stocks, recorded its best annual performance, benefiting from strong gains in international markets outside the U.S. [4][11]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Despite the strong performance of diversified strategies, there is a continued trend of investors moving away from these strategies, with diversified asset funds experiencing net outflows for 13 consecutive quarters [5][9]. - The article notes that while funds are flowing into pure equity and bond funds, the traditional diversified strategies remain out of favor among retail investors [9][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a broader bull market in 2026, with a focus on cyclical stocks benefiting from a "rolling recovery" phase in the U.S. economy, driven by improved corporate earnings and a favorable macroeconomic environment [15][18]. - The anticipated economic policies under the Trump administration are expected to favor commodity investments, suggesting a shift in investment paradigms towards fiscal expansion and de-globalization [20].

Power Generation Capacity - China has 3.75 terawatts of power generation capacity, nearly three times that of the U.S. at 1.30 terawatts [1] - China's power generation capacity has doubled over the past eight years, surpassing 3,348 gigawatts in 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 14.6% [2] - In 2024, China added 429 gigawatts of net new capacity, with wind and solar contributing to 83% of these additions [2] Nuclear Energy Development - China has 34 nuclear reactors under construction, more than the next nine countries combined, with nearly 200 additional reactors planned or proposed [1] - The U.S. currently has no large commercial nuclear reactors under construction [1] Investment in Power Infrastructure - Morgan Stanley estimates that China will invest about $560 billion in power grid projects by 2030, with over $80 billion invested in 2024 alone [3] - China's rapid grid expansion and large renewable energy investments are providing a strategic edge in the AI race, as advanced AI development relies on abundant, reliable power [4] Competitive Disadvantages in the U.S. - Tesla CEO Elon Musk described the U.S. power situation as a "major competitive disadvantage," highlighting the challenges faced by U.S. data centers due to rising power demand [5] - Research indicates that U.S. data-center power demand is increasing faster than the grid can accommodate, leading to unresolved transmission bottlenecks amid the AI boom [5]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects the global stock market to continue its bull market into 2026, with a market capitalization-weighted total return rate of 15%, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [4][5][10]. Economic Environment - The global economy is projected to maintain a comprehensive expansion in 2026, supported by further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, providing solid support for the stock market [5][6]. - The current market is defined as being in the "optimistic" phase of the cycle, characterized by increased investor confidence and potential upward pressure on valuations [5][6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant broadening trend in the global stock market, with non-U.S. markets expected to outperform U.S. stocks, breaking the previous concentration pattern [4][10]. - In 2025, it was noted that for the first time in nearly 15 years, U.S. stocks underperformed compared to other major markets, with total returns in Europe, China, and Asia nearly double that of the U.S. [10][11]. Earnings Growth - Goldman Sachs forecasts that all regions will achieve sustained positive earnings growth in 2026, with the S&P 500 expected to see a 12% growth, STOXX 600 at 5%, Japan's TOPIX at 9%, and Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) at 16% [8][10]. - The contribution of the top seven tech giants to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026, indicating a further decline in industry concentration [11]. AI Dividend - The AI dividend is anticipated to further expand in 2026, benefiting a broader range of industries and companies beyond core tech giants, particularly those that can leverage AI to enhance profitability and productivity [4][12][16]. - The spillover effects of tech capital expenditures are expected to drive growth in industrial, materials, and financial sectors, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI + industry" [16]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in focus among investors towards AI beneficiaries outside the tech sector, as competition intensifies and cost structures evolve within the AI landscape [14][15]. - Historical data suggests that in the absence of a recession, even with high valuations, the stock market is unlikely to experience significant pullbacks or bear markets [6].

高盛在最新报告中重申看涨黄金，预测金价将在2026年12月冲击每盎司4900美元历史新高。该预测主要基于双重驱动：一是结构性需求，即新兴市场央 行为对冲地缘政治风险而持续大幅购金；二是周期性利好，即美联储降息周期将推动ETF资金回流，加剧实物黄金市场的供需紧张。 报告指出，尽管大宗商品指数整体回报可能因能源板块疲软而放缓，但贵金属作为受益于利率下行的资产类别，将在2026年继续跑赢大盘。特别是随 着美国利率下降，此前在2022年至2024年间作为净卖家的ETF投资者已开始回归市场，与央行争夺有限的黄金供应，这种"坚定买家"（央行）与"回归 买家"（ETF）的同步共振是推升价格的关键。 央行购金新常态：地缘政治风险的对冲 高盛在报告中详细阐述了央行购金行为的结构性变化。报告认为，2022年俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结是一个分水岭，彻底改变了新兴市场储备管理者对地 缘政治风险的认知。为了对冲制裁风险和地缘政治不确定性，新兴市场央行正在加速将其储备资产多元化，从美元资产转向黄金。 高盛重申2026年金价看涨至4900美元，央行需求与降息构成双轮驱动。 12月18日，高盛发布研究报告，将"做多黄金"列为核心高确信度交易策略。 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will continue its bull market into 2026, with a price return of 13% and a total return of 15% including dividends, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [1][2] - The current market is defined as being in the "optimistic" phase of the cycle, characterized by increased investor confidence and potential upward risks to core expectations [2][3] - The report indicates that the trend of non-U.S. markets outperforming U.S. markets will continue, with European, Chinese, and Asian markets showing total returns nearly double that of the U.S. market [1][5] Group 2: Earnings Growth and Valuation - Goldman Sachs expects all regions to achieve positive earnings growth in 2026, with the S&P 500 projected to grow earnings by 12%, STOXX 600 by 5%, Japan's TOPIX by 9%, and Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) by 16% [3] - The report highlights that the high valuations observed in the U.S. market, with a forward P/E ratio of 22.3, will lead to returns being more reliant on fundamental earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] Group 3: Sector and Market Diversification - The bull market is broadening, with a notable shift away from the dominance of U.S. tech stocks, as the contribution of the top seven tech giants to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026 [6] - Traditional value sectors such as financials and materials are transitioning from "value traps" to "value creators," benefiting from increased tech capital expenditures [5][6] Group 4: AI Impact and Sector Expansion - The AI dividend is expected to expand beyond core tech giants to a wider range of industries and companies that can leverage AI to enhance profitability and productivity [1][7] - The report notes a significant reduction in stock correlation among the five major AI hyperscalers, indicating a shift towards selective investment in potential winners within the tech sector [8] - The spillover effects of tech capital spending are anticipated to drive growth in non-tech sectors, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI+ industry" [9]

华见早安之声 市场概述 科技股力挺， 美股无惧周五 创纪录"三巫日"动荡继续走高，三大股指 两连阳，纳指两日均涨超1%，和标普全周惊险转涨，但道指一个月来首度周跌； TikTok协议消息后， 甲骨文大涨6.6%，带动AI股和芯片股走高，芯片指数涨3%，AMD涨超6%， 英伟达涨近4%；特斯拉逆市回落，但全周涨近5%。欧央 行上调经济预期后，泛欧股指两日连创历史新高。 日本央行加息后， 全球债市价格齐跌。10年期日债收益率1999年来首次升破2.0%；法国预算案谈判破裂，30年期法债收益率创2009年来新高；美联储"三把 手"称不急于降息， 美债收益率加速反弹。 美元指数三连涨至一周高位、扭转全周跌势； 日央行加息前景"审慎"， 日元盘中跌超1%至四周新低，创逾两月最差表现；离岸人民币暂别14个月高位，连 涨四周；加密货币反弹，比特币一度较日高涨近5%、重新逼近9万美元，以太坊盘中涨超7%。 金银反弹， 银铜齐创历史新高，黄金盘中转涨、靠近纪录高位；白银本周二度创新高，期银盘中涨近4%，连涨四周；伦铜时隔一周又收创新高，一周涨超 3%；原油盘中涨超1%，连续三日反弹、仍连跌两周。 亚洲时段，A股和港股股指数集体 ...

Market Overview - The Dow is up by 0.5% today, but remains in the red for the week [1] - The NASDAQ has increased by over 1% today, turning positive for the week, while the S&P 500 is up just under 1% [2] - The bond market shows a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield up by 3 basis points today [3] Sector Performance - Technology has been a strong performer this week, with large-cap tech (XLK) up by 2% [4] - Consumer discretionary, led by Tesla and Amazon, is up by 1.3%, while energy has seen a decline of about 3% [5] - Notable stock movements include Nvidia up by 3.74% and Goldman Sachs up by 2% [6] Economic Outlook - Markets are reacting to cooler inflation data and a strong growth backdrop anticipated for 2026 [7] - Investors are focusing on potential rate cuts, earnings, and sector rotation as they prepare for the new year [7] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 175 basis points from the highs, indicating a move closer to a neutral rate [13] Fiscal Stimulus and Growth - Significant fiscal stimulus is expected to impact the economy in 2026, including corporate and personal tax changes [16] - The potential for increased capital expenditures (capex) is anticipated due to new corporate stimulus measures [16] AI and Technology Sector - The AI theme remains volatile, with a shift from broad market exposure to more selective stock picking expected in 2026 [18] - The MAG 7 tech stocks have shown mixed performance, with some like Alphabet and Nvidia performing well, while others like Microsoft and Meta have lagged [19] Small Cap Stocks - Small caps have recently rebounded, but there are concerns about sustainability given past performance trends [23] - The current small-cap index composition differs significantly from historical norms, leading to skepticism about future growth [25] Retail Sector Insights - Rivian's stock has been upgraded by Wedbush, citing 2026 as a pivotal year for the company [27] - KB Home reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed estimates, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [29] - Nike's second-quarter results reflect a turbulent year for retailers, with uneven performance across the sector [31] Honeywell's Performance - Honeywell's stock has underperformed compared to the broader industrial market, largely due to limited exposure to AI and data center growth [90] - The company is expected to benefit from the spin-off of its aerospace business, which could enhance its market position [92] EV Market Outlook - The EV market is facing headwinds, including the expiration of tax credits, but long-term demand is expected to remain strong [74] - ChargePoint's CEO emphasizes the importance of innovation and product development to drive growth in the EV charging sector [78] - The commercial and fleet markets for EVs are anticipated to grow as businesses seek lower total cost of ownership [86]