为什么三星只获得了英伟达 HBM4 配额的 20%？ 三星电子预计将在本月开始向英伟达量产并出货HBM4（第六代高带宽内存）—— 这是业界首次。 不过，据报道三星在英伟达全部 HBM4 需求中的份额仅为 "中 20%"范围。 三星的 HBM4 拥有业界最高的性能（工作速率为每秒 1.7 吉比特），也是第一个通过质量（qual）测试的。 那么为什么 为什么三星只获得了英伟达 HBM4 配额的 20%？ 据半导体行业消息人士 9 日透露，英伟达在去年 12 月暂定将 HBM4 的供货量分配给三星电子、SK 海力士和美光 ——SK 海力士约占中数 50% 多一点、三星约占中数 20% 多一点、美光约占 20%。 英伟达在认证测试尚未完成前就分配供货量是有原因的：由于 HBM 的生产需 "超过六个月"，必须提前将产量分配 给供应商，以确保今年下半年配备 HBM4 的新款人工智能加速器 Vera Rubin能稳定量产。 据称，这些分配考虑了与 HBM 供应商多年的交易历史、各公司 HBM4 的生产能力，以及通过认证测试的可能 性。 对 HBM4 技术实力的验证感到满意…… 三星的盈利能力最大化策略 三星约 20% 的市 ...

据业内消息人士周一透露，韩国SK集团会长崔泰源最近在美国与英伟达CEO黄仁勋会面，双方就高带 宽内存（HBM）供应以及更广泛的人工智能业务合作事宜进行了商讨。 据消息人士透露，此次会面于本月早些时候在加州的一家炸鸡店举行。双方讨论了 HBM4 的供应计 划，HBM4 是下一代 HBM 技术，预计将在英伟达即将推出的名为"维拉鲁宾"的AI加速器中得到应用。 竞争对手三星电子公司预计将于今年下半年开始生产 HBM4 产品。 业内消息人士称，SK海力士今年仍很可能会是英伟达最大的 HBM 供应商，其在 HBM4 市场的份额预 计约为 70%。 上述消息人士称，此次讨论还涉及了与 SK 集团有关的潜在合作事宜，该集团正计划在存储芯片之外拓 展人工智能解决方案业务。 据报道，崔泰源从本月月初起就一直在美国，与美国一些大型科技公司的高管们举行了一系列会议。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 据业内消息人士周一透露，韩国SK集团会长崔泰源最近在美国与英伟达CEO黄仁勋会面，双方就高带 宽内存（HBM）供应以及更广泛的人工智能业务合作事宜进行了商讨。 据消息人士透露，此次会面于本月早些时候在加州的一家炸鸡店举行。双方讨论了 HBM ...

硅谷的炸鸡店里，或许没有精致的餐具，但却盛放着数千亿美元的生意。 据韩国媒体报道，当地时间2月5日，正在美国访问的SK集团会长崔泰元与英伟达CEO黄仁勋，在硅谷 的一家名为"99 Chicken"的韩式炸鸡店中进行了一场非正式的"炸鸡啤酒（Chimaek）会谈"。 观察人士称，双方的讨论内容可能不仅限于第六代高带宽内存（HBM4）的供应量谈判，还包括在构建 下一代AI数据中心方面的战略合作。 这是SK集团以HBM为杠杆，正式进军下一代AI基础设施市场的信号。 HBM4供应格局，SK海力士承诺无障碍交付 此次会晤的焦点在于HBM4的供应保障。英伟达下半年将推出的下一代AI加速器"Vera Rubin"将采用每 片288吉字节容量的HBM4。 由于HBM生产需约4个月，加上台积电封装的2至3个月，整个周期长达6至7个月，这使得英伟达对拥有 行业最大产能的SK海力士依赖程度加深。 SK海力士去年底与英伟达达成协议，将供应HBM4需求量的55%以上，目前正在进行性能优化。崔泰 元在会面中向黄仁勋承诺"无障碍供应"。 据报道，SK海力士的HBM4虽采用12纳米晶圆代工和1b DRAM等相对落后一代的工艺，但性能表现与 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,135.87, marking a small gain of 20.20 points or 0.04%, achieving its second consecutive closing record [7] - The S&P 500 gained 32.52 points or 0.47% to close at 6,964.82, but fell short of its previous closing record [7] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 207.46 points or 0.90%, but remained 3% below its latest record closing high [7] Technology Sector Performance - The S&P 500 technology sector increased by 1.6%, continuing gains from the previous Friday after a significant selloff [1] - The S&P 500 Software Services index rose by 2.9%, recovering some losses after a seven-day decline driven by AI competition fears [1] - Oracle's stock surged by 9.6% following an upgrade to a "buy" recommendation from D.A. Davidson [2] AI and Market Sentiment - Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, indicated that the ChatGPT AI chatbot is exceeding 10% monthly growth, which positively influenced technology stocks [4][5] - Keith Lerner from Truist Advisory Services noted that the market was sharply oversold, suggesting that positive news could significantly impact stock prices [6] Sector Performance - The materials index rose by 1.4%, benefiting from a rally in gold and silver prices [8] - The consumer staples and healthcare sectors experienced declines of 0.86%, with Waters' shares dropping by 13.9% due to lower profit forecasts [8] - The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index gained 1.4%, with Nvidia shares contributing a 2.5% increase [9] Individual Stock Movements - Hims & Hers Health shares fell by 16% for the seventh consecutive day due to a patent infringement lawsuit from Novo Nordisk [11] - Workday's shares decreased by 5% after announcing the return of co-founder Aneel Bhusri as CEO [11] - Kyndryl's shares plummeted by 54.9% after delaying its quarterly filing and reporting material weaknesses in financial reporting [12] - Kroger's shares increased by 3.9% following the appointment of former Walmart executive Greg Foran as CEO [12] Market Statistics - Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a ratio of 2.13-to-1 on the NYSE, with 789 new highs and 99 new lows [12] - The S&P 500 recorded 63 new 52-week highs and 20 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite had 165 new highs and 127 new lows [13] - Trading volume was about 17.78 billion shares, lower than the 20.66 billion moving average over the last 20 sessions [14]

2026年2月9日，截至收盘，沪指涨1.41%，报收4123.09点；深成指涨2.17%，报收14208.44点；创业板 指涨2.98%，报收3332.77点。科创半导体ETF（588170）涨2.25%，半导体设备ETF华夏（562590）涨 2.24%。 3.谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.计划通过发行美元债券筹200亿美元，超过了此前预期的150亿美元规模。由 于投资者对人工智能相关债券的需求激增，此次发行吸引了超过1000亿美元的认购，成为企业债发行史 上需求最强劲的案例之一。据知情人士透露，此次发行中期限最长的部分——2066 年到期的债券—— 定价已从早前的较美债收益率高出1.2个百分点调整至高出0.95个百分点。 东海证券指出，2026年，美国四大CSP资本支出合计预计超过6700亿美元，同比大幅增长超60%，AI基 础设施建设仍处于大规模投入阶段。随着AI持续向终端渗透、AIAgent技术不断演进等趋势的推动，未 来对算力的需求预计将呈现爆发式增长。 相关ETF：公开信息显示， 科创半导体ETF（588170）及其联接基金（A类：024417；C类：024418） 跟踪上证科创板半导体材料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guosheng Securities analysts argues that market concerns regarding CPO technology replacing pluggable optical modules are based on a misunderstanding of industry fundamentals, leading to irrational market valuations [1] Group 1: CPO vs. Pluggable Modules - CPO and pluggable optical modules are not mutually exclusive but can develop in parallel, with pluggable modules remaining the mainstream solution for "scale-out" interconnections in data centers for the next two to three years [2] - CPO technology is primarily suited for "scale-up" scenarios within cabinets, promoted by chip manufacturers like Nvidia, and is not intended to replace existing market solutions [2] - CSP manufacturers are not planning large-scale deployments of CPO technology, indicating that pluggable modules will continue to dominate the market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Technology Barriers - Concerns about ecosystem exclusion, where chip manufacturers and TSMC collaborate on CPO technology while excluding optical module manufacturers, are unfounded [3] - The dependency of CPO technology on silicon photonics capabilities actually strengthens the competitive position of leading optical module manufacturers, who have already invested in relevant technology [3] Group 3: Market Structure and Trading Dynamics - Recent volatility in the optical module sector is attributed to a concentrated trading structure that requires time for optimization and self-correction [4] - Strong fundamentals have led to high visibility in the performance of optical module manufacturers, attracting significant institutional investment and resulting in concentrated holdings [4] - The rapid influx of capital has created instability in holdings, making them sensitive to negative news and market shifts, which can exacerbate stock price volatility [5][6] - The sector is expected to stabilize as the performance of optical module manufacturers is gradually released, leading to a more convergent understanding of the market [6]

2026年2月9日，截至收盘，沪指涨1.41%，报收4123.09点；深成指涨2.17%，报收14208.44点；创业板 指涨2.98%，报收3332.77点。科创半导体ETF（588170）涨2.25%，半导体设备ETF华夏（562590）涨 2.24%。 隔夜外盘：截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数涨0.04%；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.90%；标准普尔500种股票 指数涨0.47%。费城半导体指数涨1.42%，恩智浦半导体涨2.05%，美光科技跌2.84%，ARM涨0.74%， 应用材料涨2.50%，微芯科技跌2.10%。 东海证券指出，2026年，美国四大CSP资本支出合计预计超过6700亿美元，同比大幅增长超60%，AI基 础设施建设仍处于大规模投入阶段。随着AI持续向终端渗透、AIAgent技术不断演进等趋势的推动，未 来对算力的需求预计将呈现爆发式增长。 相关ETF：公开信息显示， 科创半导体ETF（588170）及其联接基金（A类：024417；C类：024418） 跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数，囊括科创板中 半导体设备（60%）和半导体材料（25%）细 分领域的硬科技公司。 半导体设备和材料行 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 自 2023 年以来，数据中心的发展趋势很简单：GPU 和网络才是王道。人工智能训练和推理的出现 及其随后的爆发式增长，使得计算需求从 CPU 转向了 GPU。这意味着服务器 CPU 的主要供应商英 特尔未能搭上数据中心建设和支出的顺风车。由于超大规模数据中心和新型云平台将重心放在 GPU 和数据中心基础设施上，服务器 CPU 的收入一直相对停滞不前。 与 此 同 时 ， 这 些 超 大 规 模 数 据 中 心 运 营 商 也 纷 纷 为 其 云 计 算 服 务 开 发 基 于 ARM 架 构 的 数 据 中 心 CPU，这无疑蚕食了英特尔的一大潜在市场。而在英特尔自身的x86领域，其执行力不足、性能远逊 于竞争对手AMD，进一步蚕食了市场份额。由于缺乏有效的AI加速器产品，英特尔只能原地踏步， 眼睁睁地看着其他厂商大举扩张。 过去六个月，情况发生了巨大变化，指出CPU需求飙升。我们展示并建模的主要驱动因素是强化学习 和Vibe编码对CPU的巨大需求。 然而，英特尔近期的股价反弹以及2025年下半年不断变化的市场需求信号表明，CPU如今再次变得 至关重要。在最新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silicon photonics technology is transforming data centers, with significant changes expected in the future, particularly in the transition from copper cables to fiber optics for both scale-out and scale-up networking [2][4]. Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The fiber optic device market has grown from several billion dollars in 2003 to approximately $13 billion in 2023, with projections to reach $25 billion by 2030, driven primarily by the development of AI networks [4]. - Coherent's investor report predicts that the market for pluggable optical devices will grow from $6 billion in 2023 to $25 billion by 2030, with data rates primarily at 1.6T and 3.2T [16]. - The silicon photonics wafer foundry revenue is expected to grow eightfold from 2026 to 2032, with horizontal scaling currently being the main driver [35]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Silicon photonics integrates disparate photonic devices into improved CMOS processes, enabling higher bandwidth and lower power consumption compared to traditional copper cables [10][16]. - The transition from copper to fiber optics is facilitated by pluggable optical transceivers, which connect to electrical interfaces on switches or servers, allowing for high-speed data transmission [16]. - Co-packaged optics (CPO) are emerging as a more efficient alternative to pluggable optical devices, offering higher density and lower power consumption [21]. Group 3: Key Players and Innovations - Major players in the silicon photonics foundry market include GlobalFoundries, Tower Semiconductor, and TSMC, with TSMC expected to become the leading foundry due to its extensive capabilities in AI accelerator production [28][37]. - Companies like Nvidia and Broadcom are set to launch Ethernet switches using co-packaged optical devices by 2025, indicating a shift in market dynamics [21]. - Startups such as iPronics, nEye, and Salience are developing compact silicon photonics technologies for optical circuit switching systems, which may offer more economical and reliable solutions [20]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Signal loss remains a significant challenge in silicon photonics, necessitating precise control over signal integrity during design [45]. - The integration of silicon photonics with CMOS technology is still in its early stages, but advancements are expected to bring more structure and foundational knowledge to the field [39]. - The industry is likely to see a transformation in manufacturing structures, with TSMC poised to leverage its experience in AI accelerator manufacturing to become a dominant player in silicon photonics [53].

Core Viewpoint - The data center industry is a key growth driver for the power equipment sector, with capital expenditure trends directly influencing demand for power distribution equipment [2] Demand Side - Capital expenditure from major cloud providers is expected to continue growing, with overseas capital expenditure projected to reach $113.86 billion by Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.30% [3] - In China, Alibaba's capital expenditure for Q3 2025 is expected to be 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55%. Tencent's capital expenditure is projected at 13 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 24.05% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.05% [3] Supply Chain - Nvidia reported total revenue of $57.01 billion for Q3 2025, with data center product revenue reaching $51.22 billion, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44% [4] - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 was 335 billion new Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.5%, with full-year revenue expected to reach 3.8 trillion new Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31.6% [4] Application Side - The number of AI models is steadily increasing, with application deployment becoming more frequent. The token call volume from January 27 to February 2, 2026, reached 9.81 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.91% [4] - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis index has decreased by over 50% following the release of new models [4] Investment Recommendations - The construction of data centers is expected to drive demand for HVDC and SST technologies, with an anticipated global increase of approximately 14 GW in data center installations in 2024. Major cloud providers are expected to continue increasing capital expenditures, with TSMC's capital expenditure projected to reach $52-56 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 30% [5] - Recommended companies include Zhongheng Electric (002364.SZ), Oulu Tong (300870.SZ), Weiteng Electric (688226.SH), and Sunshine Power (300274.SZ). Companies to watch include Kehua Data (002335.SZ), Kelun Electronics (002121.SZ), Magmi Tech (002851.SZ), Jinpan Technology (688676.SH), and Sifang Co. (601126.SH) [5]