Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will not report earnings until later this month, but it doesn't have high AI capex spending like the other hyperscalers because it is primarily in the business of selling GPUs, and doesn't manufacture its chips, so it's actually a capital-light business.Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) continues to lag on AI capex and is only guiding for $13 billion of capex in 2026.Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) said it plans to more than double capex to about $20 billion in 2026 to fund the expansion of its robotaxi fleet ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition and significant capital expenditures among major tech companies in the AI sector, highlighting the risks and uncertainties associated with their aggressive investments and marketing strategies [3][4][6]. Group 1: AI Investment Landscape - In 2026, major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are projected to spend $660 billion (approximately 4.58 trillion RMB) on AI, marking a 60% increase from 2025 and a staggering 165% increase from 2024 [7][8]. - This level of spending represents about 2.1% of GDP, surpassing historical investments in infrastructure projects like the interstate highway system and the Apollo moon landing [8]. - Microsoft plans to allocate $140 billion for capital expenditures by June, while Amazon aims to invest $200 billion in AI-related workloads, significantly exceeding market expectations [10][11]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - Despite strong financial reports, investor concerns are rising due to the massive capital expenditures, leading to significant stock price drops for companies like Microsoft and Amazon [10][11]. - Analysts predict a drastic decline in free cash flow for Google and Meta, with estimates suggesting a nearly 90% drop for both companies, while Amazon's cash flow may turn negative [13]. - The interconnected nature of AI investments raises concerns about potential distortions in incentives and the risks of over-reliance on single clients, as seen with Microsoft's dependence on OpenAI [11][12]. Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - Google is regaining momentum in the AI space with its Gemini model, which has shown superior performance compared to ChatGPT, leading to increased interest in Google Cloud services [16][20]. - The article highlights the competitive landscape where companies like OpenAI are exploring various monetization strategies, including subscription fees and API services, to sustain their operations amid high costs [21][22]. - The emergence of new AI platforms, such as Moltbook, reflects the public's complex attitudes towards AI, oscillating between fascination and skepticism [30][32].

Group 1 - The January non-farm payroll report showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 55,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, slightly below the forecast of 4.4% [3] - Job growth was primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added 124,000 jobs, double the normal growth rate for 2025 [3] - Despite the strong job growth, there are concerns about ongoing downward revisions in the labor market data, with the average monthly job addition for last year being only 15,000 after adjustments [3] Group 2 - Major technology stocks had mixed performances, with Nvidia up 0.80%, Apple up 0.67%, while Microsoft fell 2.15%, Google down 2.39%, and Amazon down 1.39% [3] - Among Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.65%, with Alibaba down 1.32% and JD down 0.28%, while NIO rose 2.22% and XPeng up 1.63% [4]

Group 1: International News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution to terminate tariffs on Canada implemented by Trump with a vote of 219 to 211 [1] - U.S. Energy Secretary Brouillette stated that the "ban" on Venezuelan oil has effectively been lifted, marking a historic turning point, and he plans to meet with local oil producers during his visit [2][3] - President Trump announced that coal is the most reliable energy source in the U.S., with coal generation expected to increase by approximately 25-30% this year [6][7] - The Federal Reserve officials noted that consumer spending remains robust, primarily driven by high-income individuals, and inflation is likely to stay close to 3% [12][13][14] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Precious metals prices showed significant volatility, with spot gold briefly surpassing $5100 per ounce before falling to below $5060, a daily decline of 0.55% [18][19] - Spot silver broke through $85 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.69% [24] - WTI crude oil fell below $63 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.91%, while U.S. EIA crude oil inventories rose by 8.53 million barrels, significantly exceeding the expected 793,000 barrels [26][27] Group 3: Corporate Developments - U.S. stock markets closed lower, with the Dow down 0.15%, Nasdaq down 0.16%, and S&P down 0.03%; Micron Technology rose nearly 10%, while Caterpillar increased over 4% [31] - Morgan Stanley raised its CEO's compensation from $34 million to $45 million; Cisco announced price increases due to rising memory costs [33][34] - Meta is constructing a $10 billion data center in Indiana, which will create over 4,000 construction jobs [35]

Group 1: Semiconductor Tariffs - The U.S. has initiated a "tariff war" in the semiconductor sector, which is not solely aimed at China but reflects broader ambitions [3][10] - Starting from August 2025, the U.S. plans to impose nearly 100% tariffs on all imported semiconductors, with exemptions for companies that build factories in the U.S. [3][5] - By January 2026, tariffs of 25% will be applied to advanced computing chips from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, with a 100% tariff threat on storage chips unless produced domestically [5][10] Group 2: Impact on Allies and Global Market - Major South Korean companies, Samsung and SK Hynix, controlling nearly 70% of the DRAM market, face existential threats from U.S. tariffs [5][12] - Taiwan's semiconductor firms are pressured to invest at least $250 billion in the U.S. to secure trade benefits, totaling $500 billion in commitments [7][8] - The U.S. semiconductor tariff strategy is causing significant financial strain on European and Asian semiconductor companies, with losses linked to the loss of the Chinese market [12][22] Group 3: Energy Control and Geopolitical Maneuvering - The U.S. aims to control global energy transport routes, with recent actions including claims over the Panama Canal and aggressive moves in the Caribbean [14][16] - The U.S. has been seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, disregarding national sovereignty, and is focused on controlling critical energy pipelines in Europe [16][18] - The U.S. is leveraging energy supply chains to force countries like India and European nations to purchase American liquefied natural gas at higher prices [20][22] Group 4: Humanitarian Aid and Global Order - The U.S. has dismantled key humanitarian aid institutions, leading to a significant loss of support for millions globally, particularly in impoverished regions [24][26] - The closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development has resulted in a predicted additional 9.4 million deaths by 2030 due to reduced aid [26][28] - The U.S. is criticized for undermining global humanitarian efforts while simultaneously promoting a "rules-based international order" that serves its interests [30][32] Group 5: Long-term Consequences - The U.S. strategy of imposing tariffs and controlling energy routes is seen as a short-term gain that could lead to long-term global instability [35][37] - The actions taken by the U.S. are not only affecting China but also harming its allies and many other countries, leading to a potential backlash against American policies [35][37]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that in the AI era, computational power (算力) is the new oil, essential for driving industrial capabilities, similar to how oil defined industrial power in the 20th century [1][7] - It argues that while AI models are important, they are transient and will eventually become outdated, whereas computational power is a durable asset that will remain valuable over time [1][5] Group 1: The Shift from Oil to Computational Power - The transition from oil to computational power is likened to the evolution of industrial resources, highlighting that computational power is difficult to extract and requires refinement [1] - The article points out that the current AI landscape is characterized by a scarcity of effective computational resources, despite the availability of hardware [3][4] Group 2: Fragmentation and Infrastructure Challenges - The fragmentation of computational resources is a significant issue, with different companies unable to effectively share or utilize their hardware, leading to inefficiencies [4] - The Chinese government is taking steps to address these challenges by establishing a unified computational infrastructure, which is expected to enhance efficiency and resource utilization [4] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Future Directions - The establishment of organizations like the 光合组织 aims to facilitate collaboration between computational resource providers and model developers, creating a more integrated ecosystem [4] - The article suggests that the future of AI will depend on the ability to create a robust and efficient computational infrastructure that can support the evolving needs of the industry [5][6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.13% at 50,121.4 points, the S&P 500 unchanged at 6,941.47 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 23,066.47 points [1] - Popular tech stocks showed mixed results, with Google and Microsoft down over 2%, Amazon down over 1%, while Intel rose over 2%, and Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla had gains of less than 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks also had mixed performance, with Century Internet up over 12%, Kingsoft Cloud up 10%, and TSMC up over 3%, while NetEase fell over 4% and iQIYI dropped over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.53% at 24,856.15 points, France's CAC40 down 0.18% at 8,313.24 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 1.14% at 10,472.11 points [1] Commodity Markets - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.53% at $5,107.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.60% at $84.08 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures rose 1.45% to $64.89 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 1.15% to $69.60 per barrel [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME nickel up 3.29% at $18,065.0 per ton, LME tin up 1.59% at $50,065.0 per ton, and LME copper up 1.00% at $13,239.0 per ton [1] Bond Markets - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 6.41 basis points at 3.512%, the 3-year yield up 5.87 basis points at 3.569%, and the 10-year yield up 2.77 basis points at 4.170% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 3 basis points at 4.475%, France's 10-year yield down 2.6 basis points at 3.377%, and Germany's 10-year yield down 1.6 basis points at 2.790% [1]

1、美国总统特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会晤，表示坚持与伊朗的谈判继续进行，同伊朗达成协议 将是"首选"，此次会晤未达成其他确定性结果。 2、美国国防部已指示第二个航空母舰打击群做好部署 到中东的准备，美军正在为可能对伊朗发动的袭击做准备，部署命令可能在数小时内下达。 3、美国能 源部长赖特将访问委内瑞拉，期间将直接与委内瑞拉临时领导层接触，并访问部分 油田。 4、美国1月 非农就业人数增加13万人，远 超市场预期，失业率降至4.3%，美国财长贝森特表示非农就业数据超过 预期。 5、美联储理事米兰表示，如果获得提名，乐意继续留在美联储。 6、Meta宣布在印第安纳州黎 巴嫩市投资超100亿美元建设新的1吉瓦 数据中心项目，将支持4000多个 建筑岗位和300个运营岗位。 Meta同时将价值270亿美元的Hyperion数据中心项目剥离出表，审计机构安永将该财务安排列为关键审 计事项。 7、美国国会预算办公室警告，美国正走在不可持续的财政道路上，将未来十年的赤字预测上 调1.4万亿美元，特朗普2025年税法预计使赤字增加4.7万亿美元，移民执法行动增加5000亿美元成本， 关税带来的额外收入预计减少3万亿美元赤 ...

Economic Data - The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 55,000 [1] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, slightly below the economists' forecast of 4.4% [1] - Job growth is primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added 124,000 jobs, double the normal growth rate for 2025 [1] - There is a persistent downward revision in the labor market data, with the average monthly job addition for last year adjusted to only 15,000 [1] Company News - Apple is reportedly facing setbacks in the development of an upgraded version of Siri, which may delay the release of several anticipated AI features [3] - Meta has begun construction on a new data center in Lebanon, Indiana, with an investment exceeding $10 billion, aimed at enhancing its AI infrastructure [5] - Google is integrating AI shopping features into its search engine and Gemini chatbot, allowing consumers to purchase products directly through AI-driven answers [7] - T-Mobile anticipates service revenue to reach approximately $77 billion by 2026, with plans to achieve 18 to 19 million broadband users by 2030 [8] - Ancora Capital has increased its stake in Warner Bros. Discovery and plans to oppose the company's deal with Netflix regarding its production and streaming assets [9] - Kraft Heinz has paused its planned spin-off, focusing instead on improving company performance under the new CEO Steve Cahillane [10]

Core Viewpoint - Google's stock price decline on February 11 was primarily due to market reactions to changes in the competitive landscape of AI infrastructure, particularly following the release of its Gemini3 language model and TPU technology, which are perceived to surpass OpenAI's GPT model [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Google's Gemini3 language model and self-developed TPU have been recognized by industry experts as having superior performance compared to OpenAI's GPT model [1] - This advancement has raised concerns about Nvidia's long-standing monopoly in the GPU market, prompting Nvidia to publicly assert its technological leadership [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The shift in competitive dynamics has led to a rapid revision of market expectations for related companies, resulting in a decline in stock prices for Nvidia and other companies associated with the "OpenAI chain" [1] - Google's stock closed at $311.24 on February 11, reflecting a single-day drop of 2.32% [2]