Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 348.00, reflecting a significant upside from the current closing price of HKD 263.20 [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue increase of no less than 200% for 1H25, translating to approximately RMB 13.67 billion, with Q2 growth potentially exceeding 220% [1]. - The group's profit is projected to increase by no less than 350%, indicating strong operational performance and market demand [1]. - The company is establishing itself as a global leader in the IP (Intellectual Property) space, leveraging product innovation to enhance IP value [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant profit increase of no less than 350% for H1, corresponding to approximately RMB 4.34 billion and a net profit margin of 31.7%, an increase of over 10 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 56.9%, 68.9%, and 68.4% to RMB 10.2 billion, RMB 15.2 billion, and RMB 19.7 billion respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market continues to show strong momentum, with average store efficiency increasing by 60% in Q2, and online sales on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin growing over 170% [2]. - The company’s IP, particularly the Labubu plush series, has gained significant traction, leading to high demand and premium pricing [2]. Global Expansion - The company has seen a rapid increase in its global fan base, with North American and European followers growing by over 1400% and 600% respectively in Q2 [3]. - The establishment of over 30 new overseas stores in H1, with a focus on high-efficiency regions, indicates a robust international expansion strategy [3]. Innovation and Product Development - Continuous product innovation, particularly in the plush category, is expected to drive sales growth and enhance brand value [2]. - The company is diversifying its offerings through various business models, including merchandise stores and animated content, which are anticipated to further enhance revenue streams [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a significant increase in the global popularity of Pop Mart's IP, leading to an upward revision of the adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 30% to 9.73 billion and 12.35 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding increase in target price by 6.5% to 330 HKD, suggesting a 25% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1 - The company expects a year-on-year profit growth of over 350% for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to increase by no less than 200% during the same period, exceeding market expectations [2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the enhanced global recognition of its IP, diversification of product categories, and rapid revenue growth across various regional markets [2] - The increase in overseas revenue proportion positively impacts both gross and net profit margins, while continuous optimization of product costs and expense management enhances profitability [2] Group 2 - The company is projected to achieve approximately 170% and over 225% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 and Q2 respectively, with a 50%+ quarter-on-quarter growth from Q1 to Q2 [3] - New product launches in Q2, including popular series and collaborations, have received positive consumer feedback, with some products sold out across official channels [3] - The company opened 25 new stores overseas in Q2, with 10 located in North America, significantly boosting market interest in that region [3] Group 3 - The increase in overseas revenue share, product price adjustments, and scale effects from new categories are expected to lead to a substantial improvement in gross margins, with a projected net profit margin of approximately 32% for the first half of 2025, marking a historical high [4] - The net profit margins for the same period in 2024 were 21.9% and 27.5% for the first and second halves respectively, indicating a performance that exceeds market expectations [4] Group 4 - The company is advancing its group strategy centered around IP, demonstrating strong growth potential in the medium to long term [5] - The LABUBU brand continues to gain global traction, validating the company's ability to innovate and optimize design while growing alongside its IP [5] - The company is expanding its business into diverse areas, including jewelry and animation, which is expected to enrich IP content and extend its lifecycle [5]

智通财经7月16日电，花旗调高泡泡玛特的盈利预测，并将目标价从308港元上调至384.5港元，预计在 IP热度、海外扩张、补货和新品推出带动下，公司下半年将继续保持增长动能。花旗称，股价近期回调 后估值更具吸引力，提供了较好入场时机。 花旗上调泡泡玛特目标价近25% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Pop Mart anticipates significant revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to increase by no less than 200% and profit by no less than 350% compared to the previous year [1] - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported revenue of 4.558 billion yuan, and based on the projected growth rate, revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to exceed 13.5 billion yuan, surpassing the total revenue for 2024 [1] - The reasons for the performance fluctuations are attributed to three factors: increased global brand recognition and diverse product categories driving revenue growth, a rising proportion of overseas revenue positively impacting gross and net profit, and ongoing optimization of product costs and expense management enhancing profitability [1] Group 2 - The market outlook for the second half of the year suggests a potential upward trend, with expectations to surpass the peak of the second half of 2024, particularly in the consumer sector [1] - Focus areas for investment in the consumer sector include domestic subsidy-related sectors such as home appliances and consumer electronics, offline service consumption like dining and tourism, and new consumption trends [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is highlighted for its unique opportunities in new consumption and technology sectors, with specific ETFs covering these areas [2]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has issued a strong half-year earnings warning, with revenue growth exceeding 200% and net profit growth exceeding 350%, but major Wall Street firms believe the performance "only roughly meets high buyer expectations" [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart expects revenue to increase by no less than 200%, translating to at least 13.7 billion RMB, surpassing Goldman Sachs' expected growth of 187% [3]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to grow by no less than 350%, reaching 4.5 billion RMB, exceeding Goldman Sachs' forecast of 3.8 billion RMB [3]. - The net profit margin has improved significantly to approximately 30%, compared to 20% in the first half of 2024 and 26% in the second half of 2024 [3]. Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley noted that despite the strong performance, it is close to the lower end of the buyer expectations range of 4.5-5.5 billion RMB [3]. - After a 60% increase in stock price over the past three months and a 588% surge over the past year, Morgan Stanley anticipates profit-taking pressure in the short term [4][7]. Analyst Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart for 2025-2027, increasing the target price from 227 HKD to 260 HKD while maintaining a neutral rating [2][8]. - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its target price from 330 HKD to 340 HKD, maintaining an "overweight" rating based on a 1.5x PEG valuation [8]. Growth Catalysts - Morgan Stanley identified five key catalysts to watch: 1. Two new "POPOP" jewelry stores will sell more Labubu products along with other IPs [7]. 2. The first season of the "Labubu & Friends" animation is set to premiere in summer, featuring 20 two-minute videos [7]. 3. Labubu x Uniqlo T-shirts will launch in August [7]. 4. Labubu 4.0 preview/release is expected before Christmas/Spring Festival [7]. 5. Potential launch of interactive/AI toys [7]. Long-term Outlook - Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have raised their profit forecasts based on Pop Mart's strong performance, indicating confidence in the company's ability to expand its IP popularity globally [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Pop Mart International [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue projected to grow by no less than 200% year-on-year, and net profit expected to increase by no less than 350% [12] - The growth is attributed to the global recognition of Pop Mart's IP, diversified product categories driving revenue growth across regions, and improved cost management enhancing profitability [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 35.1 billion, RMB 53.5 billion, and RMB 69.1 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 169%, 53%, and 29% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 11.2 billion, RMB 17.8 billion, and RMB 23.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 229%, 58%, and 34% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 66.8% in 2024 to 74.9% by 2027 [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its IP portfolio, with new IPs like CRYBABY gaining traction, indicating a reduced reliance on a few key IPs [4] - The overseas business is growing rapidly, particularly in the U.S., where price increases are expected to enhance regional gross margins [4] - The launch of new product lines, including the independent accessory brand POPOP, aims to broaden the customer base and explore IP value [3]

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo will be held in Beijing until July 20 [2] - The 12th Aviation Power and Gas Turbine Focus Conference will take place in Shanghai from July 16 to 18 [2] - The 2025 China International Nuclear Fusion and Nuclear Energy Expo is scheduled for July 16 to 18 in Shanghai [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year [3] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq up 0.18% and the Dow down 0.98% [3] - Nvidia's stock rose over 4%, adding approximately $161.8 billion (about 1160.5 billion RMB) to its market capitalization [3] Group 3 - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.85% at $3330.50 per ounce [4] - COMEX silver futures fell 1.95% to $37.99 per ounce [4] Group 4 - International oil prices slightly decreased, with WTI crude oil down 0.34% at $66.75 per barrel [5] - Brent crude oil fell 0.52% to $68.85 per barrel [5] Group 5 - European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 0.42%, France's CAC40 down 0.54%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.66% [6] Group 6 - China's economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a GDP of 660,536 billion RMB [8] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that despite challenges, the economy shows resilience and positive trends [8] Group 7 - The Ministry of Commerce announced adjustments to the "Catalog of Technologies Prohibited from Exporting and Restricted from Exporting," adding new restrictions on battery cathode material preparation technologies [10] Group 8 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced the start of H20 chip sales to the Chinese market, following U.S. government approval [17] - The launch of a new graphics card, RTX Pro, designed for computer graphics and AI, was also announced [17] Group 9 - Xiaozhu Technology reported significant growth in the humanoid robot sector, with expectations for accelerated application in the next 3-5 years [18] - The company has seen a notable increase in shipment volume compared to last year [18] Group 10 - Pop Mart anticipates a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit growth of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [19] - This reflects the potential of the trendy toy market [19] Group 11 - BMW announced a partnership with Momenta to develop a new generation of intelligent driving assistance solutions for the Chinese market [20] - This collaboration aims to enhance BMW's competitiveness in the smart automotive sector [20] Group 12 - Geely Holding Group signed a merger agreement with Zeekr, aiming to strengthen its global competitiveness in the intelligent electric vehicle sector [21] - The merger will allow Geely to cover various powertrain forms [21] Group 13 - XPeng Huitian completed a $250 million Series B financing round to accelerate the development and mass production of flying cars [23] - The company plans to deliver its "land aircraft" by 2026 [23] Group 14 - Loobo announced a strategic partnership with Uber to integrate thousands of autonomous vehicles into Uber's global network [25] - The initial deployment will occur in Asia and the Middle East by the end of this year [25] Group 15 - Zhiyuan Robotics received strategic investment from Charoen Pokphand Group to explore business opportunities in various verticals [27] - This investment aims to support the company's development in life sciences, new retail, and wellness services [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Bubble Mart is experiencing significant growth, driven by the popularity of its LABUBU brand, with projected revenue and profit increases for the first half of the year [1][4] - Bubble Mart expects its revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, to increase by no less than 200% compared to the same period last year, and profit to grow by no less than 350% [1][4] - The company attributes its performance to the global recognition of its brands and IPs, a diverse product range, and continuous high growth in all regional markets, leading to an increase in overseas revenue proportion [4][7] Group 2 - LABUBU's popularity has led to a significant rise in Bubble Mart's stock price, which has increased by approximately 200% this year, reaching a market capitalization of 353.5 billion HKD [4][7] - Despite the success, there are concerns about over-reliance on a few popular IPs and the influx of new competitors in the collectible toy market, which raises questions about Bubble Mart's valuation and future prospects [7][10] - The secondary market for LABUBU collectibles has seen a 50% price drop recently, indicating potential volatility and market correction following initial hype [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart expects significant revenue and profit growth, projecting a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the six months ending June 30, 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported revenue of 4.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, and a net profit of 921 million yuan, up 93.32% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 1.018 billion yuan, reflecting a 90.1% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to exceed 13.7 billion yuan, with net profit exceeding 4.1 billion yuan and adjusted net profit exceeding 4.6 billion yuan [1] Growth Drivers - The board attributes the significant performance increase to several factors: 1. Enhanced global brand recognition and diverse product categories driving revenue growth across all regional markets [2] 2. Increasing overseas revenue proportion positively impacting gross and net profit margins [2] 3. Continuous optimization of product costs and improved expense management enhancing profitability [2] Market Outlook - In Q1 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue growth of 165%-170%, with Chinese revenue increasing by 95%-100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475%-480% [6] - The management is confident in achieving over 50% sales growth in 2025, with overseas sales expected to double, targeting overall sales of 20 billion yuan and overseas sales exceeding 10 billion yuan [6] - The stock price has seen a significant increase, reaching a peak of 283.4 HKD, with a cumulative rise of over 200% since January [6] Competitive Position - Analysts note a rising trend in the popularity of multiple IPs, with products like Molly and CRYBABY selling out and commanding premiums in the secondary market [7] - The core competitive advantage of Pop Mart lies in its IP incubation and operational mechanisms, which have been validated over the years [7] - The company continues to expand its product offerings, with new stores launching in major cities and introducing various popular IP series [7]

泡泡玛特公告，预期本集团截至2025年6月30日止六个月之收入可能较截至2024年6月30日止六个月之收 入增长不低于200%；预期本期间本集团溢利(不包括未完成统计的金融工具的公允价值变动损益)较本集 团去年同期溢利可能录得增长不低于350%。 ...