Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in Pop Mart's stock price, despite strong sales data, raises questions about market sentiment and potential underlying issues affecting investor confidence [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 23, Pop Mart's stock fell by 10.6%, with trading volume reaching three times the average daily volume, breaking through psychological support levels of 250 and 230 HKD, marking a four-month low [2]. - The stock's decline began during overnight trading, with Pop Mart's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) dropping by 10% and trading volume hitting six times the average [2]. - The trading volume for Pop Mart on the same day exceeded 9.5 billion HKD, making it the highest traded stock in Hong Kong, surpassing Alibaba's 7.8 billion HKD [3]. Group 2: Short Selling and Market Dynamics - Short selling activity for Pop Mart reached a record high, with approximately 1.99 billion HKD in short sales, accounting for 10.8% of the total short sales in the Hong Kong market [3]. - The number of shares shorted increased by 52% quarter-over-quarter and 64.3% year-over-year, representing 6.3% of the free float, equivalent to 46.8 million shares [3]. Group 3: Competitive Concerns - The chairman of Miniso, Ye Guofu, indicated plans to enhance the company's IP platform through partnerships with more artists, potentially intensifying competition for Pop Mart [4]. Group 4: Demand and Pricing Issues - Reports indicated a decline in the global second-hand prices of Pop Mart's IP "Labubu" since its summer peak, raising concerns about the sustainability of demand [5]. - The market's core concern may not solely be about second-hand demand but rather the potential peak in Pop Mart's revenue growth, leading to higher expectations for profitability [5]. Group 5: Analyst Sentiment - Despite Pop Mart's better-than-expected quarterly performance, analysts express uncertainty about the stock's bottom and are hesitant to recommend buying at current levels [6].

Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart (09992.HK) has launched a new series of collectible figurines to celebrate its 15th anniversary, but the market response has been lukewarm compared to previous successful releases [2][3] Product Launch and Performance - The "Celebrate This Moment" series includes 15 regular and 1 hidden figurine, featuring popular characters like LABUBU and MOLLY. The hidden variant "Sweetheart Party" saw a price increase from 69 yuan to 519 yuan, reflecting a premium of 6.5 times [2] - Other regular figurines in the series, such as "Childlike Innocence," "Blow the Horn," and "Under the Curtain," had premiums of 1.8 times, 1.9 times, and 1.3 times, respectively [2] - The new series did not perform as well as previous hits like the "WHY SO SERIOUS" series, where the hidden variant "Moon Shadow Mask" increased from 159 yuan to 1999 yuan, a premium of 11.6 times [2] Market Trends and Comparisons - The lower premium for the new series is attributed to the nature of the collectible market, where buyers are often deep fans of the IP, and the use of lower-cost PVC material makes the products more affordable [3] - Bubble Mart's collaboration with the popular series "Wednesday" resulted in a highly sought-after pendant, with the North American version seeing a price increase from 399 yuan to 5499 yuan, a premium of 12.8 times [3] - Previous collaborations, such as with the movie "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child," also achieved significant market success, with the hidden variant "Ao Bing Nezha" increasing from 69 yuan to 1159 yuan, a premium of nearly 16 times [3] Stock Market Performance - Since September, Bubble Mart's stock price has declined nearly 30%, with significant drops occurring on October 21 and 23, including a nearly 10% drop on the latter date, marking the largest decline in six months [3][4] - As of October 24, the stock closed at 230.4 HKD per share, down 0.86% [5] Revenue Growth Projections - On October 21, Bubble Mart announced a projected revenue growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with China expected to grow by 185% to 190% and overseas revenue by 365% to 370% [6] - Specific channel performance for Q3 showed offline channels growing by 130% to 135% and online channels by 300% to 305% [6] - Regional performance indicated significant growth in overseas markets, with the Americas projected to grow by 1265% to 1270% and Europe by 735% to 740% [6]

新京报贝壳财经讯 10月24日，港股泡泡玛特午后再度跳水，盘中跌超4%，上个交易日收跌超9%。 ...

Core Insights - Bubble Mart (09992.HK) launched multiple new figurines on October 23, celebrating its 15th anniversary with the "Celebrate This Moment" series, featuring 15 regular and 1 hidden variant, with significant price increases observed for certain models [1][2] - The premium pricing for the new series is lower compared to previous successful launches, indicating a potential decline in market enthusiasm for the brand's latest offerings [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 30% since September, with a notable drop of almost 10% on October 23, marking the largest decline in six months [2][3] Product Launch and Performance - The "Celebrate This Moment" series includes popular characters like MOLLY, with the hidden variant "Sweetheart Party" seeing a price increase from 69 yuan to 519 yuan, a 6.5x premium [1] - Other regular models such as "Childlike Innocence," "Blow the Horn," and "Under the Curtain" also performed well, with premiums of 1.8x, 1.9x, and 1.3x respectively [1] - Previous successful series like "WHY SO SERIOUS" and "LABUBU 4.0" had much higher premiums, indicating a shift in consumer interest [1][2] Market Trends and Financial Performance - The lower premium pricing for the new figurines is attributed to the nature of the products and the materials used, which are more affordable, leading to less collector enthusiasm compared to other merchandise like keychains [2] - Bubble Mart's collaboration with the popular series "Wednesday" resulted in a highly sought-after keychain, with the North American version seeing a price increase from 399 yuan to 5499 yuan, a 12.8x premium [2] - As of October 24, the company's stock closed at 230.4 HKD per share, down 0.86%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about revenue growth potential [4] Revenue Growth Projections - Bubble Mart announced a projected revenue growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [4] - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185% to 190%, while overseas revenue is projected to increase by 365% to 370% [4] - Performance across various channels shows offline sales growing by 130% to 135% and online sales by 300% to 305%, indicating strong demand despite recent stock performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart in Hong Kong experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4% to HKD 222 after a previous trading day where it fell more than 9% [1] Group 1 - Pop Mart's stock price is currently reported at HKD 222, reflecting a notable decrease [1] - The company faced a substantial drop of over 9% in the previous trading session, indicating ongoing volatility in its stock performance [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Pop Mart has seen a decline, with a drop of 4% reported on October 24 [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 245-250% in Q3 2025, accelerating from 204% in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1] - The growth was supported by increased plush toy production capacity and the success of new IPs in various regions, including Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific [2][3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 due to a rich lineup of new products and a diversified IP strategy [4] Revenue Growth - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185-190%, while international revenue is projected to increase by 365-370% in Q3 2025 [1] - Online sales are anticipated to rise by 300-305%, with an estimated online penetration rate of 45-50%, surpassing historical peaks [2] - Offline revenue is expected to grow by 130-135%, with a doubling of average store efficiency compared to previous quarters [2] Regional Performance - Revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region is projected at 170-175%, while North America and Europe are expected to see increases of 1265-1270% and 735-740%, respectively [3] - The company opened approximately 6 new stores in Asia-Pacific, 10 in North America, and 4 in Europe, maintaining a rapid expansion pace [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is preparing for a strong Q4 with new product launches, including Halloween and Christmas-themed items, which are expected to boost sales [4] - The company is focusing on diversifying its business through collaborations with top global IPs and brands, expanding into new product categories such as desserts and accessories [4] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 17%, 9%, and 7% to 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion respectively [4] - The target price has been increased to 410 HKD, reflecting a target PE of 27x for 2026, adjusted from 29x due to changes in market risk preferences [4]

Company Performance - The company reported a 245%-250% year-on-year revenue growth for Q3 2025, with further acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarter. Revenue from the Chinese market grew by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370%, exceeding both internal and market expectations due to new product launches and accelerated growth in the European and American markets, alongside a faster release of production capacity [1][2] Chinese Market Insights - In the Chinese market, same-store performance exceeded expectations, with offline channel revenue increasing by 130%-135%. The company has been optimizing store locations and retail layouts throughout the year, enhancing the operational capabilities of its teams in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [1] - Online channel revenue saw a significant increase of 300%-305%, driven by capacity release and intensified efforts to combat scalping, leading to a notable improvement in the overall purchasing experience for fans. The higher profit margin from online sales is expected to further boost the company's profit margins in Q3 [1] Global Market Trends - The company's global IP popularity is on the rise, with revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe regions recorded at 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively. In Q3, the company opened 23 new stores overseas, including flagship locations in Berlin and New York [2] - The combination of celebrity influence, high-quality new products, and local operations has rapidly increased the popularity of LABUBU, attracting a growing fan base. Other brands like Xiao Ye and SP have also gained significant fan appreciation, evolving into globally recognized IPs [2] Brand Engagement and Product Strategy - The company is placing greater emphasis on the health of its IP and brand, with initiatives such as character meet-and-greets and anniversary tours to strengthen connections with fans and enhance the IP image. The company aims to balance supply release with real demand to mitigate negative effects from secondary market price fluctuations [2] - In anticipation of the Q4 holiday season, the company is launching a series of high-quality products, including Halloween-themed plush toys and collaborations with popular shows, while continuously optimizing store designs and establishing fan engagement systems [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to accelerated capacity release and expected growth during the overseas peak season, the company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 20% and 21% to 13.2 billion and 17 billion respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 23x and 18x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating in the industry, with a target price of 370 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 48% based on 35x and 27x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in overall revenue for Q3 2025, with a growth of 245%-250% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Revenue from the China region grew by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Offline channels in China saw a revenue increase of 130%-135%, while online channels experienced a remarkable growth of 300%-305% [1] - The overseas market continued its high growth trajectory, with the Asia-Pacific region growing by 170%-175%, the Americas by 1265%-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735%-740% [1] Market Dynamics - The online growth in China for Q3 significantly outperformed the 212% growth seen in the first half of the year, attributed to innovative channel strategies and the impact of pre-sale income recognition for key products [1] - In the overseas market, the Americas are expected to experience monthly fluctuations due to restocking schedules, while the European market focuses on expanding into untapped regions [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high growth in the short to medium term, with the upcoming e-commerce promotions in China and the North American shopping season starting with Halloween [2] - For 2026, the company expects improved store efficiency in China and the Asia-Pacific region, alongside new business models being developed [2] IP Industry Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the trendy toy culture and commercialization, with IP being central to its business model [2] - The company has established an integrated platform covering the entire trendy toy industry chain, including artist discovery, IP operation, consumer engagement, and cultural promotion [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 400.62 billion, 580.21 billion, and 778.14 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 140.02 billion, 203.61 billion, and 276.87 billion [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant acceleration in sales for Q3 2025, with overall revenue growth of 245-250% year-on-year, up from 204% in the first half of the year, indicating strong growth momentum [1][2] - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 7-12% and increased the target price to HKD 401.60, maintaining a buy rating [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - In Q3, the domestic market in mainland China saw revenue growth of 185-190% year-on-year, an increase from 135% in the first half [1] - Offline channels contributed to a 130-135% year-on-year growth, driven by enhanced store experiences and improved retail operational efficiency, despite no significant increase in the number of stores [1] - Online channels experienced a remarkable growth of 300-305% year-on-year, attributed to effective conversion from live-streaming e-commerce, ongoing contributions from private traffic, and refined operations of the online membership ecosystem [1] Group 2: International Market Growth - The overseas market experienced explosive growth, with revenue increasing by 365-370% year-on-year, particularly driven by the Americas, which saw a staggering growth of 1265-1270% [2] - The Asia-Pacific market (excluding China) and Europe also showed strong growth, with increases of 170-175% and 735-740% respectively [2] - The company plans to launch more holiday-related products in Q4, which is expected to further boost overseas market growth [2] Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards by 7-11%, while maintaining profit margin estimates [2] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 7-12%, reflecting the strong performance in Q3 and the anticipated Q4 seasonal boost [2] - The target price has been increased to HKD 401.60 based on a 30x target P/E ratio for 2026, with the current stock price reflecting a 19x expected P/E ratio for 2026, making it an attractive valuation [2]