南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在科技股和芯片股的提振下，标普500指数创下历史新高。 美国东部时间1月27日，标普500指数收涨0.41%，报6978.60点，时隔半个月再创历史新高；纳斯达克综 合指数涨0.91%，报23817.10点；道琼斯指数跌0.83%，报49003.41点。 财报方面，约五分之一的标普500成分股本周公布季度业绩，"七巨头"中有苹果、微软、Meta和特斯 拉。 本轮财报季的一个关键主题在于：企业是否开始真正从AI相关投资中获益？在2025年末，市场一度担 心大规模投向数据中心及其他基础设施的资本支出能否带来回报，这种疑虑一度打压科技股及其他AI 概念股，本周市场将对此高度关注。 科技巨头能否继续走高？ 1月27日，"七巨头"中六家上涨，英伟达、苹果涨逾1%，微软、亚马逊涨逾2%，仅特斯拉一家下跌。 Globalt Investments高级投资组合经理Thomas Martin分析称，大家都在关注任何能让外界深入了解人工 智能技术发展趋势的信息，投资者将重点关注各公司的资本支出水平以及与AI商业化相关的信息，除 了资本支出和运营支出总额之外，相关评论也将是关注的焦点。 ...

一、 行业背景与趋势 二、 近期密集催化：聚焦北美进展 报告认为过去两周，Robotaxi领域迎来了非常密集的催化，尤其在北美地区进展迅速。主 要体现在 法规 和 运营 两个层面： 1. 法规层面：美国《2026年自动驾驶法案》（草案）的积极进展 2. 运营层面：特斯拉Robotaxi实现"无安全员"运营里程碑 三、 后续影响与连锁反应 1. 对特斯拉自身的直接影响： 2. 对国内产业链的深远影响： 1. 基本面支撑：L2级城市领航辅助驾驶（NOA）的渗透率仍在快速提升，预计全年增长率（YY）超过50%，为整个智能 驾驶板块提供了稳定的基本盘。 2. 长期方向：无论是技术迭代还是法规进展，都明确指向行业向高阶自动驾驶（L3/L4）演进。 事件：美国众议院于1月13日举行了相关听证会，审查包括《2026年自动驾驶法案》在内的草案。 核心影响（两点）： 量产豁免上限大幅提高：法案计划将不符合传统机动车要求（如无方向盘、刹车踏板）的车辆的年度部署豁免上 限，从现行的 2,500辆大幅提升至9万辆 。这对于特斯拉计划中不配备方向盘的 "Cybercab"车型 的量产和大规模上 路至关重要，能极大提高车内空间利用率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla, a leading EV maker, is set to report Q4 earnings, with shares experiencing significant volatility since 2020, yet have quadrupled since late 2023, nearing all-time highs as earnings approach [1] Earnings Expectations - Q4 earnings report is scheduled for January 28 after market close, with EPS estimates at $0.45, reflecting a 40% year-over-year decline, and revenue expected to be approximately $24.75 billion [2] - The options market anticipates a post-market move of +/- $29.56 or 6.58%, while Tesla has historically shown an average move of 9.64% over the past eight quarters [2] EPS Surprise History - Tesla has missed Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates by an average of 11.10% over the past four quarters, indicating a trend of underperformance [3] Legacy EV Business Insights - Tesla's legacy EV business constitutes about three-quarters of its revenue, but investors may not focus heavily on this due to three factors: bad news is already priced in, expected interest rate declines, and diversification beyond the legacy EV business [5][6] Key Earnings Drivers - Analysts predict a slowdown in Q4 EPS, with Tesla shifting focus from EVs to energy, robotaxis, and robots, which will be closely monitored by investors [8] - Tesla's energy segment is experiencing robust growth at 84% year-over-year, with potential for triple-digit growth in the coming years [10] - The Tesla robotaxi network is being tested in San Francisco and Austin, with third-party data suggesting Tesla's full-self-driving service is twice as safe as the average human driver, which could lead to regulatory approval and new revenue streams [11] - The anticipated release of the "Optimus" humanoid robot and the high-volume production of the long-delayed "Semi" truck later this year are also significant developments [12] Long-term Outlook - While facing headwinds in the legacy EV business, Tesla's long-term value will hinge on the success of its energy, self-driving, and humanoid robot initiatives, as investors assess the potential of a diversified tech ecosystem to mitigate current challenges [13]

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the automotive industry, specifically strategies and forecasts for 2026, with a review of the automotive market from 2005 to 2025 [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Sales Growth and Valuation**: - Sales growth is a sufficient but not necessary condition for the valuation of the automotive sector to increase. Historical data shows that years with sales growth corresponded with rising valuations, but there were exceptions in years like 2012 and post-2020 [3]. - The automotive sector's valuation tends to respond approximately three months ahead of sales growth before 2020, and this response time has shortened to about one month post-2020 [3]. 2. **Comparison with 2018**: - The year 2026 is expected to mirror 2018, which also faced declining sales due to policy changes. In 2018, the automotive sector began to decline three months before sales dropped significantly [4][5]. 3. **Impact of Policy Changes**: - The introduction of a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles in 2026 and changes in subsidy structures are expected to impact demand negatively [1][2]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: - The focus for 2026 is on new growth areas, particularly in smart driving technologies. Companies in this sector are seen as undervalued, with many trading below 30x P/E ratios while maintaining decent growth rates [7][8]. 5. **Low Valuation and High Growth Stocks**: - Several companies were highlighted as having strong growth potential while being undervalued, including: - **Mastec**: Estimated 20% growth in 2026 with a P/E of 15-16x [10]. - **Yatong**: Expected 30% growth with a P/E of around 20x [10]. - **Fuyou Glass**: Anticipated 15% growth with a P/E of about 15x [11]. - **Weichai Power**: Projected 15% growth with a similar P/E [11]. 6. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - Companies like **Desay SV** and **Kobota** are expected to see significant revenue growth due to their involvement with major clients like Li Auto and NIO, with projected revenues of 90 billion and 21 billion respectively for Q4 [17][21]. - **Huayang Group** is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% in 2026, driven by high-margin products [24]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The conference also discussed the potential risks associated with rising raw material costs, particularly for companies in the forging sector, which could impact earnings realization [13]. - The importance of technological cycles, including the shift towards electric and smart vehicles, was emphasized as a key driver for future growth in the automotive sector [6][7]. - The discussion included a focus on the competitive landscape, with companies like Fuyou Glass expected to benefit from a more favorable market position as competitors exit [30][31]. Conclusion - The automotive industry is facing challenges due to policy changes and market dynamics, but there are significant investment opportunities in undervalued companies with strong growth potential, particularly in the smart driving and electric vehicle segments. The insights from the conference provide a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the automotive sector.

Core Insights - Tesla Inc is a leading electric vehicle and clean energy company, preparing to release its quarterly earnings on January 28, 2026, with an estimated EPS of $0.45 and projected revenue of approximately $24.76 billion [1][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - Analysts from Wedbush project Tesla's revenue for the fourth quarter to be around $25 billion, with automotive revenue contributing approximately $18 billion, driven by strong electric vehicle deliveries and energy generation [3] - Tesla's shares are currently trading at $434, reflecting an increase of over 9% in the past year [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 264, indicating a high valuation by investors [4] - The price-to-sales ratio stands at about 15, suggesting the market values Tesla at 15 times its sales [4] - Tesla's debt-to-equity ratio is about 0.17, indicating a relatively low level of debt compared to its equity [5] - The current ratio is approximately 2.07, suggesting good short-term financial health [5] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - Tesla is facing challenges in maintaining its previous car sales momentum but is expanding its energy business and focusing on artificial intelligence [2] - Key highlights in the upcoming earnings report include advancements in autonomous driving and robotics, with demand for these technologies stabilizing [2] - Wedbush has reaffirmed its 'Outperform' rating for Tesla, setting a 12-month price target of $600 [2][6]

Core Insights - Tesla's brand value has significantly decreased by $15.4 billion, a drop of 36%, reaching $27.61 billion in 2025, marking three consecutive years of decline [1][3] - The decline in brand value is attributed to multiple factors, including a lack of innovative new models, high product pricing compared to competitors, and weakened core product competitiveness [3] - CEO Elon Musk's deep involvement in geopolitical issues has detracted from his focus on the automotive business, contributing to the brand's diminished value [3] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer research indicates a substantial decline in Tesla's reputation, recommendation, and trust scores, particularly in Europe and Canada, with the U.S. recommendation score dropping to 4.0 out of 10, nearly halving from 8.2 in 2023 [3] - Despite the decline in recommendation willingness, Tesla's customer loyalty in the U.S. has slightly increased to 92%, and brand awareness has improved globally [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors are performing well, with Chinese brand BYD's brand value increasing by 23% to $17.29 billion, emerging as a new highlight in the automotive industry [3] - Major automotive brands such as Toyota and Mercedes have surpassed Tesla in brand value, with Toyota leading the industry at $62.7 billion [3] Market Challenges - Musk's political actions have had a lasting negative impact on Tesla, leading to strong consumer backlash, compounded by the cancellation of federal tax credits for electric vehicles in the U.S. [4] - Despite launching a ride-hailing app and piloting autonomous taxi services in the latter half of the previous year, and Musk's $1 billion stock buyback to boost share prices by 11%, these efforts have not reversed the decline in brand value [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Performance**: The S&P 500 experienced a five-day winning streak, reaching record highs before major tech earnings reports. The dollar hit a four-year low, while gold prices surged. A-shares showed a volatile upward trend, with significant gains in precious metals and the computing hardware supply chain [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tech Sector Earnings**: Major tech companies are influencing market trends, with Meta's $60 billion order for fiber optics leading to a 15% surge in Corning's stock. Micron and Microsoft also saw stock increases of over 5% and 2%, respectively, while Tesla's stock fell by 1% [1]. - **Economic Indicators**: In December, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in China shifted from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase, indicating improved profitability and growth in the upper and middle reaches of the industrial sector [1]. - **Commodity Prices**: Gold prices rose over 3%, while silver experienced significant volatility, with a drop of over 10% and a subsequent rise of nearly 9% [1]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sector-Specific Developments**: - **AI Applications**: The AI sector is seeing significant advancements, with new models expected to launch during the Spring Festival. Companies like Deepseek and Kimi are releasing new products, indicating a robust growth trajectory in AI applications [5][6]. - **Fiber Optics**: Meta's substantial investment in fiber optics is a key development, with potential implications for related companies such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Hengtong Optic-Electric [6]. - **Aviation Industry**: China’s COMAC plans to increase production and delivery of the C919 narrow-body aircraft, suggesting a potential growth area in the domestic aviation market [6]. - **Semiconductors**: Price adjustments by Zhongwei Semiconductor for MCU and Norflash products, with increases ranging from 15% to 50%, highlight the ongoing demand and pricing power in the semiconductor sector [6]. - **Cloud Computing**: Google announced a price adjustment for data transmission methods in North America, which could significantly impact cloud service providers and related companies [6].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Companies Mentioned**: Tesla (TSLA.US), CATL (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), Sungrow (300274.SZ), HIBOR (688411.SH), EVE Energy (300014.SZ), Zhongxin Innovation (3931.HK), Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ), Xinwanda (300207.SZ) - **Industry**: Energy Storage and Clean Energy Key Points and Arguments Tesla's Progress in Energy Storage - Tesla's energy storage business is expected to see a **50% year-on-year increase in shipment volume by 2025**. The installation target for 2026 is based on existing and new orders [1][1] - Despite subsidy reductions in some regions, regulatory changes are accelerating customer purchases. High-energy-consuming projects like AI computing centers are expected to contribute **20% to 30% of demand growth** [1][2] Demand Drivers for Energy Storage Equipment - AI computing centers are a significant driver for energy storage demand, contributing **20% to 30%** to the overall demand. Large industrial enterprises are also increasing interest in energy storage systems due to equipment upgrades and energy cost savings [2][2] - National energy projects, particularly in North America, are transitioning from traditional grids to microgrid solutions, further driving demand for energy storage products [2][2] Global Clean Energy and Green Power Trends - The clean energy and green power sectors are rapidly developing, driven by AI computing centers, grid modernization, and the green transition in traditional industries. North America and Europe are expected to create stable demand through large-scale national projects [3][3] - Emerging economies in the Middle East, South America, and Southeast Asia are also becoming significant sources of demand due to manufacturing shifts [3][3] Regional Market Performance for Tesla's Energy Storage Products - By 2025, **80%-85% of Tesla's global energy storage shipments** will come from large Megapack systems in the commercial sector. North America and Europe are the primary markets, with North America leading [4][4] - Tesla is expanding its presence in emerging markets like the Middle East, South America, and Southeast Asia, where increased electricity demand is expected [4][4] Production Capacity Plans for 2026 - Tesla plans to expand its production capacity to support a shipment target of **55-60 GWh** in 2026, with the Shanghai factory expected to contribute significantly [5][5] - The new third-generation Megapack 3XL will enhance technical capabilities, but the current sales will primarily rely on the second-generation 2XL until the new product launches [5][5] Technological Upgrades in Megapack Products - The Megapack 3 will feature a **5 MWh capacity**, improved thermal management, and enhanced modular design to meet high power demands from industrial users [6][6] - Safety measures include a new thermal management controller that can respond quickly to potential thermal runaway situations, significantly reducing disaster risks [6][6] Cost Reduction and Competitive Strategy - Tesla has reduced component costs from over **3 RMB per kWh to approximately 1.9 RMB** through local sourcing, aiming for **70%-80% localization** in 2026 [16][16] - The company leverages a software-hardware integration strategy to enhance customer value and maintain competitiveness in mature markets [16][16] Market Expansion Strategies for 2026 - Tesla will focus on North America and Europe while exploring emerging markets like Southeast Asia, particularly Singapore, for data center projects [18][18] - In China, Tesla plans to collaborate with municipal units for service delivery and expand its presence in key regions like the Yangtze River Delta [18][18] Impact of Energy Storage Growth on Battery Prices - The growth of the energy storage sector is not expected to significantly impact battery prices due to the different production standards and existing capacity in the market [19][19] Transition to Active Profit Models in Energy Storage - Tesla is transitioning energy storage systems from passive supply models to active profit-generating assets, exploring investment options for customers and integrating software services to enhance hardware value [20][20] Challenges for Battery Manufacturers Transitioning to Energy Storage - Battery manufacturers face technical barriers in transitioning to energy storage system integration, including thermal management, energy management systems, and power conversion systems [21][21] Conclusion - Tesla's strategic focus on expanding its energy storage capabilities, enhancing technology, and entering new markets positions it well for future growth in the clean energy sector. The company's efforts to reduce costs and improve product safety and efficiency will be critical in maintaining its competitive edge in a rapidly evolving industry.

Portfolio Performance - The portfolio net value increased from 1.000 in September 2025 to 1.175 by January 23, 2026, reflecting a growth of 17.5%[5] - The portfolio volatility was recorded at 11.16% in January 2026, compared to 8.60% in October 2025[5] Adjustments in Holdings - The total storage position was reduced from 17% to 12% due to anticipated volatility from upcoming earnings reports from major companies[6] - The allocation for non-ferrous metals was adjusted to 15%, while nuclear power was increased to 18%[6] - A new position of 2% was established in the commercial aerospace core stock, RKL[6] Macro Observations - The Nasdaq ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust) showed a year-to-date increase of 17.09%[7] - The VIX index, indicating market volatility, rose by 2.88% recently, suggesting increased market uncertainty[7] - Gold prices increased by 1.35%, reflecting a 80.10% rise over the past year[7] Energy Sector Insights - The U.S. electricity demand is projected to triple from 200 TWH to 640 TWH by 2035, indicating a significant increase in energy needs[7] - The report highlights a structural change in the U.S. electricity system, emphasizing the need for stable policies and supply chains for nuclear energy[7] Market Trends - The report notes a significant rise in rare earth companies, with CRML increasing by nearly 200% and USAR by 108% in three weeks, indicating speculative market behavior[9] - The market is characterized by a shift towards smaller-cap stocks, with larger companies showing stagnant performance, raising concerns about market stability[9]

Company and Industry Summary Company: 伟创电气 (Weichuang Electric) Key Points 1. **Technical Review with Tesla** The recent technical review at Tesla's factory was primarily focused on product manufacturing details, process specifics, and issues encountered during trial production. This was the final communication before mass production. The general manager of Zhejiang Rongtai was present during this review, and the rumors circulating in the market were deemed exaggerated. The company showcased its capabilities in joint frameless motors, encoders, and drivers to Tesla, which will evaluate these capabilities internally. Following the review, Tesla will confirm the final specifications and processes for the product, with a deadline set for mid-February 2026 to ensure mass production starts in April 2026 [1][1][1]. 2. **Mass Production Capacity Planning** The company maintains its original plan for mass production, targeting a weekly output of 1,000 units by June 2026 and 10,000 units by June 2027. Tesla has requested that the products for the April mass production be supplied from Thailand. The company plans to first establish the production line domestically before relocating it to Thailand to ensure initial production begins in early April [1][1][1]. 3. **Cooperation Model** The company is collaborating with Rongtai through a joint venture named Rongchuang, which is responsible for interfacing with Tesla. The joint venture in Thailand has already established a code for operations [2][2][2]. 4. **Investment Recommendation** The robotics sector has experienced significant volatility due to funding and sentiment fluctuations. However, the core industry advancements are continuing to exceed expectations, with formal mass production set to commence in April. The year 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for Tesla's supply chain, with potential production volumes expected to increase from 1 million units to 10 million units in the future [2][2][2].