Summary of TSMC's CoWoS and Advanced Packaging Outlook Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) and CoPoS (Chip-in-Panel-on-Substrate) Key Points and Arguments CoWoS Capacity and Growth Forecast - TSMC's total CoWoS capacity is projected to reach **675k** wafers per month (wpm) by the end of **2025**, with a forecast of **1.08 million** wpm by the end of **2026**, representing a **61%** year-over-year (YoY) growth [5][62] - The company anticipates further expansion to **130k** wpm by the end of **2027** [5][13] - CoWoS capacity has seen significant growth, with a **100%** YoY increase noted in early **2024** [11] Utilization Rate and Production Adjustments - TSMC's CoWoS utilization rate (UTR) is expected to be in the low **90s** in **1H26**, with a return to full capacity anticipated in **2H26** as new projects enter mass production [5][57] - Adjustments in nVidia's orders have led to a production mismatch, impacting the UTR and causing some expansion timelines to shift [5][50] Customer Allocation and Market Dynamics - nVidia is projected to maintain a **50.1%** market share in CoWoS capacity allocation for **2026**, slightly down from **51.4%** in **2025** [6][62] - Broadcom is expected to become the second-largest customer, with an allocation of **187k** wpm, benefiting from multiple projects entering mass production [62] Advanced Packaging Technologies - TSMC is focusing on several advanced packaging technologies, including CoWoS, CoPoS, and WMCM (Wafer-level Multiple-Chip Module), with CoPoS expected to enter high-volume production by **2028** [5][21][35] - CoWoS has evolved from a niche solution to a critical component in AI and high-performance computing (HPC), driven by the demand for larger memory bandwidth [10] Strategic Partnerships and Outsourcing - TSMC is collaborating with OSAT partners like ASE and SPIL to manage the increasing demand for CoWoS, with expectations that outsourcing will accelerate in **2026** and **2027** [40][42] - The company has invested significantly in expanding its advanced packaging capabilities, including a **US$100 billion** investment in the U.S. for new fabs and R&D centers [46] Challenges and Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry faces challenges such as production bottlenecks and mismatches between upstream and downstream production, which TSMC is actively addressing [52] - The demand for AI-related products is expected to remain strong, with TSMC's management indicating improved demand compared to previous forecasts [52] Conclusion - TSMC is positioned as a leader in the advanced packaging sector, with aggressive expansion plans and a strong customer base, particularly in the AI and HPC markets. The company's strategic partnerships and investments are expected to support its growth trajectory in the coming years [7][46]

周四，美国科技股七巨头指数涨0.44%，报191.06点，时隔一个交易日再创收盘历史新高。亚马逊收涨 2.86%，谷歌A、微软、Meta Platforms、英伟达至多涨0.49%，苹果则收跌0.24%，特斯拉跌1.12%此 外，礼来制药收涨3.62%，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦B类股涨0.40%，台积电ADR则收跌0.18%，AMD 跌1.88%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is significantly expanding its CoWoS capacity, with projections indicating a rise from 70k wpm at the end of 2025 to 100-105k wpm by the end of 2026, and further exceeding 130k wpm by 2027, showcasing a growth rate that outpaces the industry average [1][2]. Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS capacity will reach 675k wafers in 2025, 1.08 million wafers in 2026 (a 60% year-on-year increase), and 1.43 million wafers in 2027 (a 31% year-on-year increase) [1]. - The expansion is concentrated in specific factories, with the Tainan AP8 factory expected to contribute approximately 30k wpm by the end of 2026, primarily serving high-end chips for NVIDIA and AMD [2]. Utilization Rates - Due to order matching issues with NVIDIA, CoWoS utilization is expected to drop to around 90% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, with some capacity expansion plans delayed from Q2 to Q3 2026. However, utilization is projected to return to full capacity in the second half of 2026 with the mass production of new projects [4]. Customer Allocation - In 2026, NVIDIA is projected to occupy 50.1% of CoWoS capacity, down from 51.4% in 2025, with an allocation of approximately 541k wafers [5][6]. - AMD's CoWoS capacity is expected to grow from 52k wafers in 2025 to 99k wafers in 2026, while Broadcom's capacity is projected to reach 187k wafers, benefiting from the production of Google TPU and Meta V3 ASIC [5][6]. Technology Developments - TSMC is focusing on advanced packaging technologies such as CoPoS and WMCM, with CoPoS expected to be commercially available by the end of 2028, while WMCM is set for mass production in Q2 2026 [11][14]. - CoPoS technology offers higher yield efficiency and lower costs compared to CoWoS, while WMCM is positioned as a cost-effective solution for mid-range markets [12][14]. Supply Chain and Global Strategy - TSMC plans to outsource CoWoS backend processes to ASE/SPIL, which is expected to generate significant revenue growth for these companies [15]. - TSMC's aggressive investment strategy in the U.S. aims to establish advanced packaging facilities, enhancing local supply chain capabilities and addressing global supply chain restructuring [15]. AI Business Contribution - AI-related revenue for TSMC is projected to increase from 6% in 2023 to 35% in 2026, with front-end wafer revenue at $45.162 billion and CoWoS backend revenue at $6.273 billion, becoming a core growth driver [16].

Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, total assets reached NT$7,006,349,549, an increase from NT$6,691,938,000 in December 2024, representing a growth of 4.7%[10] - Current assets amounted to NT$3,264,917,475, accounting for 47% of total assets, compared to 46% in December 2024[10] - Total liabilities were NT$2,389,717,699, which is 34% of total assets, slightly up from 35% in December 2024[10] - Equity attributable to shareholders of the parent increased to NT$4,581,073,975, representing 65% of total equity, compared to 64% in December 2024[10] - Cash and cash equivalents rose to NT$2,364,524,340, making up 34% of total assets, up from 32% in December 2024[10] - Long-term liabilities decreased to NT$1,012,403,365, representing 14% of total liabilities, down from 16% in December 2024[10] - Total current liabilities increased to NT$1,377,314,334, which is 20% of total liabilities, compared to 19% in December 2024[10] - Non-controlling interests rose to NT$35,557,875, representing 1% of total equity, compared to 1% in December 2024[10] Revenue and Profitability - Net revenue for Q2 2025 reached NT$933.79 billion, a 38.7% increase from NT$673.51 billion in Q2 2024[12] - Gross profit margin improved to 59% in Q2 2025, compared to 53% in Q2 2024, with gross profit amounting to NT$547.37 billion[12] - Operating expenses totaled NT$84.51 billion in Q2 2025, representing 9% of net revenue, up from 10% in Q2 2024[12] - Income from operations for Q2 2025 was NT$463.42 billion, a 62% increase from NT$286.56 billion in Q2 2024[12] - Net income for Q2 2025 was NT$397.49 billion, a 60.5% increase compared to NT$247.66 billion in Q2 2024[12] - Earnings per share for Q2 2025 were NT$15.36, up from NT$9.56 in Q2 2024[12] - Total comprehensive income attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was NT$146.20 billion, a decrease from NT$262.27 billion in Q2 2024[12] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash generated from operations for the first half of 2025 was NT$1,251,521,280, compared to NT$903,133,764 in 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of about 38.6%[18] - The net cash used in investing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was NT$518,680,733, up from NT$357,414,321 in 2024, reflecting an increase of approximately 45%[19] - The net cash used in financing activities for the same period was NT$204,366,193, compared to NT$161,930,200 in 2024, which is an increase of about 26%[19] - The cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were NT$2,364,524,340, compared to NT$1,799,127,351 at the end of June 2024, showing a growth of approximately 31.4%[20] Expenses and Losses - Research and development expenses for Q2 2025 were NT$61.28 billion, maintaining 7% of net revenue[12] - The company reported a foreign exchange loss of NT$4.78 billion in Q2 2025, compared to a gain of NT$2.18 billion in Q2 2024[12] - The income tax expense for Q2 2025 was NT$95.54 billion, representing 10% of income before tax, compared to 8% in Q2 2024[12] - The company recognized earthquake losses of approximately NT$5.3 billion in Q1 2025, primarily affecting inventories and machinery[185] Shareholder Returns - Cash dividends to shareholders amounted to NT$246,360,378, representing a substantial return to investors[14] - TSMC's cash dividends per share for the second quarter of 2025 are NT$5.00, with total cash dividends to shareholders amounting to NT$129,662,913,000[102] Financial Assets and Liabilities - The company reported financial assets at fair value through profit or loss totaling $15,597,401 as of June 30, 2025, up from $15,407,542 at the end of 2024, indicating a slight increase of 1.2%[43] - The total financial liabilities at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL) include forward exchange contracts valued at $220,702 and interest rate futures contracts at $2,384[162] - The total balance of bonds payable decreased to $940,825,442 as of June 30, 2025, from $983,752,385 at the beginning of the year[134] - Financial assets at amortized costs totaled $2,888,647,577 as of June 30, 2025, an increase from $2,721,319,255 at the end of 2024[135] Related Party Transactions - TSMC's receivables from related parties also exceeded NT$100 million or 20% of paid-in capital, indicating substantial intercompany transactions[195] - Total receivables from related parties as of June 30, 2025, amounted to $2,277,792, up from $1,404,473 in 2024, representing a 62.1% increase[178] Market and Segment Performance - Wafer revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2025, reached $795,434,048, up 33% from $596,240,620 in Q2 2024[107] - Revenue from High Performance Computing for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was $1,054,378,499, a 68% increase compared to $626,165,504 in the same period of 2024[107] - The revenue from the United States for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was $1,326,650,754, a significant increase from $812,949,006 in the same period of 2024[106] Accounting and Compliance - The company is evaluating the impacts of new IFRS standards, including IFRS 18, which will supersede IAS 1, effective January 1, 2027[27] - TSMC's pension cost for the interim period is calculated using the actuarially determined pension cost rate from the previous financial year[39] - The company continues to apply the same material accounting judgments and key sources of estimates as in the previous financial year ended December 31, 2024[41]

Group 1: Core Insights - Citigroup has raised TSMC's CoWoS capacity forecast from 800,000 to 870,000 units by 2026, driven by strong AI demand and larger chip sizes [1] - Despite some downstream ODM manufacturers showing weak guidance, supply chain leaders like Hon Hai remain optimistic, with Nvidia's wafer revenue expected to grow over 50% year-on-year by 2026 [1] - Cloud service providers' ASIC development plans are identified as a second growth engine for TSMC, expanding advanced packaging demand into more applications like server CPUs [1][5] Group 2: AI Infrastructure Complexity - The complexity of AI infrastructure is increasing, with power consumption for AI systems potentially reaching 800-900 kW per rack by 2027/2028, raising demands on cooling and power systems [2] - The importance of high-speed serial and parallel interfaces (SerDes I/O) is growing, leading to more network switch chips and server CPUs adopting advanced packaging technologies [2] - Leading suppliers in the AI supply chain are expected to enjoy better growth prospects due to the increasing complexity of chip and system design [2] Group 3: Nvidia's Product Iteration - Nvidia's GB200 remains the primary configuration for AI data centers, with the GB300 expected to ramp up in Q4 2025 [3] - The next-generation system, Vera Rubin, is anticipated to be officially launched at the 2026 GTC conference and will utilize advanced N3 process GPUs and higher memory densities [3] Group 4: Cloud Providers' ASIC Accelerators - Google and AWS are leading in the development of self-developed ecosystems among cloud service providers, with ASIC chip shipments expected to reach 400,000 to 500,000 units by 2026 [4] - Google is collaborating with MediaTek for its TPU supply chain, while AWS's Trainium 3 is expected to achieve larger-scale production in the second half of 2026 [4] - Microsoft is slower in developing its own AI ASICs but is resuming activities related to the Maia 300, with small-scale production expected next year [4] Group 5: Advanced Packaging Demand Expansion - The application of advanced packaging technology is expanding beyond AI accelerators to include network switch chips and server CPUs, providing more growth opportunities for TSMC [5] - The increasing complexity of systems and data transmission requirements are raising industry entry barriers, allowing leading suppliers to gain competitive advantages [5] - Factors such as larger chip sizes and the ramp-up of ASIC accelerators in the second half of 2026 are supporting the optimistic outlook for TSMC's CoWoS capacity [5]

Core Points - TSMC's board approved a new capital budget plan totaling approximately $20.6575 billion, primarily for advanced process capacity construction, advanced packaging, and facility engineering [2] - The total capital expenditure for TSMC in the first three quarters of the year has reached approximately $53.0466 billion [2] - TSMC reported consolidated revenue of approximately NT$933.79 billion and a net profit of NT$398.27 billion for Q2 2025, with earnings per share of NT$15.36 [2] - The board approved a cash dividend of NT$5.0 per share [2] - TSMC plans to issue up to NT$60 billion in unsecured corporate bonds to fund capacity expansion and related green projects [2] - The company will also increase its wholly-owned subsidiary TSMC Global's capital by up to $10 billion to optimize foreign exchange risk management costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence (AI) is a transformative technology still in its early stages, presenting significant investment opportunities in leading companies within the sector. Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is the leader in AI hardware, holding a 92% market share in GPUs as of Q1 [2] - The company has established a robust ecosystem by providing its CUDA software for free to research labs and universities, fostering a generation of developers [3] - Nvidia's annual release of new chips and its strong software performance ensure its continued leadership in AI infrastructure [4] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) plays a crucial role in the AI boom by manufacturing advanced chips for major players like Nvidia, with high-performance computing now accounting for 60% of its revenue, up from 52% a year ago [5] - TSMC's revenue is significantly driven by chips built on 7-nanometer and smaller nodes, which made up nearly three-quarters of its revenue last quarter [6] - As AI expands into new markets, TSMC's position in the semiconductor supply chain positions it as a long-term winner [7] Group 3: Alphabet - Alphabet has successfully integrated AI into its core business, with Google Search traffic benefiting from AI Overviews, leading to a 12% increase in search revenue last quarter [8] - The company's cloud computing segment, Google Cloud, saw a 32% revenue increase last quarter, driven by the adoption of its Vertex platform for AI applications [9] - Alphabet's investment in data center infrastructure and custom AI chips positions it as a long-term AI winner [10] Group 4: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms is leveraging AI to enhance user engagement on its social media platforms, leading to increased advertising opportunities and higher returns for advertisers [12] - The company is focusing on monetizing its platforms like WhatsApp and Threads, which have significant user bases but are just beginning to run ads [13] - CEO Mark Zuckerberg's ambition to develop "personal superintelligence" indicates a long-term commitment to AI, making Meta a stock to consider for investors [14] Group 5: Microsoft - Microsoft's cloud computing unit, Azure, has experienced consistent revenue growth of 30% or more for eight consecutive quarters, with AI contributing nearly half of that growth [15] - The integration of AI across Microsoft's product lines, including Microsoft 365 AI Copilot and GitHub Copilot, is driving enterprise customer adoption [16] - Microsoft's significant stake in OpenAI, which entitles it to 49% of OpenAI Global's profits up to a tenfold return, further enhances its position in the AI landscape [17]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC plans to phase out 6-inch wafer production within two years and adjust 8-inch wafer production to enhance efficiency [1][3] Group 1: Production Changes - TSMC has notified customers that the 6-inch wafer production at Fab 2 and 8-inch wafer production at Fab 5 will cease by the end of 2027 [3] - The company is providing a timeline to assist customers in transitioning to 12-inch wafer production [3] - TSMC aims to redeploy some employees from the 8-inch wafer plants to strengthen advanced packaging capabilities and accelerate the shift to 12-inch wafers [3] Group 2: Capacity and Technology - TSMC operates four 12-inch "GigaFab" clusters with a monthly capacity of over 100,000 wafers, four 8-inch wafer plants, and one 6-inch wafer plant, with a total capacity of approximately 17 million 12-inch wafers in 2024 [3] - TSMC is a pioneer in GaN wafer foundry services, having introduced this technology in 6-inch wafer production in 2014 and expanded it to 8-inch wafers in 2021 [3] Group 3: Strategic Decisions - During the recent board meeting, TSMC announced five major resolutions but did not include speculated topics such as increased investment in the U.S. or collaboration with Intel [3] - TSMC intends to maintain its current level of investment in the U.S. and uphold its capital expenditure target of $38 billion to $42 billion for the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tech giants index experienced a decline of 0.31%, closing at 190.22 points, moving away from its historical closing high and failing to maintain the intraday historical high of 191.88 points [1] Company Performance - Microsoft and Meta Platforms saw declines of up to 1.64% [1] - Nvidia, Alphabet (Google A), and Tesla experienced declines of up to 0.86% [1] - Amazon and Apple recorded gains of at least 1.40% [1] - TSMC ADR fell by 1.17% [1] - Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares rose by 1.47% [1] - Eli Lilly saw an increase of 3.29% [1] - AMD experienced a significant rise of 5.41% [1]

Semiconductor Industry - Nvidia's price target raised to $225 from $180 by Piper Sandler, maintaining an overweight rating [1] - Broadcom and the semiconductor ETF both hit record highs [1] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) added to buy list, manufacturing 50% of the world's chips, especially high-powered AI chips [2] - The industry believes Taiwan Semiconductor has a long 10-year growth runway, currently undervalued due to concerns about potential Chinese invasion [3] Software Industry - The IGV software ETF is on track to end a four-month winning streak [4] - Two-thirds of the IGV components are down 20% or more from their 52-week highs, with Samsara down 47% and Adobe down 41% [4] Salesforce - Salesforce is down 36%, but the company believes it is still a good investment due to its embedded presence in many organizations and potential for AI-driven efficiencies [5] - The market anticipates an acceleration in Salesforce's growth rate decline, but the company believes this is an investment period that will lead to future growth [6][7] - Salesforce's performance is closely tied to the employment rate, making it a pro-cyclical software company [8] - Concerns exist about Salesforce's growth rate relative to its valuation multiple, especially considering trends in unemployment reports and initial/continuing claims [9]