Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus of the discussion is on the specialty glass fiber industry, particularly the Low CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) glass fiber cloth segment [1][1]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply Shortage of Low CTE Glass Fiber Cloth** - Global leader in BT substrate materials, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, has notified customers of delivery delays extending to 4-5 months [1]. - The demand for advanced packaging from TSMC's CoWoS is driving tight supply for ABF substrate materials, which is now affecting BT substrates [1]. - There is an expectation of price increases for upstream Low CTE glass fiber cloth due to rising substrate material prices [1]. 2. **Price Increase by Nitto Denko** - Nitto Denko announced a 20% price increase for its composite materials division, which includes products like woven fabrics and chopped strands [1]. - These products were previously operating at a loss, indicating a strategic shift to improve profitability [1]. 3. **Impact of Tariffs on Exports** - The price increase may be influenced by tariffs that have hindered some Chinese exports to the U.S., leading to tight overseas supply, particularly for chopped products [2]. 4. **Real Estate Market Trends** - In the real estate sector, the rolling weekly transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities has decreased by 3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous week [3]. - Conversely, the transaction area for second-hand homes in 12 cities has increased by 3% year-on-year, although this is a decline from the previous week's 16% [3]. Additional Insights - The price increase for Nitto Denko's products is expected to benefit Chinese companies with overseas production capabilities, such as China Jushi [3]. - A recommended investment strategy includes focusing on domestic substitution chains, with a preference for Zhongcai Technology, and considering companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement in the African supply chain [4]. - The report suggests that despite low market expectations, companies like Sankeshu and Rabbit Baby are showing signs of operational improvement in Q2 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Major technology companies like Apple, MediaTek, and Qualcomm are targeting TSMC's 2nm process, which has begun accepting orders at a cost of $30,000 per wafer, presenting a significant challenge for the next generation of process nodes. The subsequent 1.4nm "A" process is expected to be even more expensive, with costs potentially reaching $45,000 per wafer, a 50% increase compared to the 2nm node [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections 1.4nm Process Cost and Features - TSMC's A14 (1.4nm) manufacturing technology promises significant improvements in performance, power consumption, and transistor density compared to the N2 (2nm) process. The A14 process is expected to cost up to $45,000 per wafer, which is a 50% increase from the 2nm node [3][5]. - The A14 process will utilize TSMC's second-generation GAA (Gate-All-Around) nanosheet transistors and NanoFlex Pro technology, which allows for greater design flexibility. It is projected to achieve a 10-15% speed improvement, a 25-30% reduction in power consumption, and a logic density increase of approximately 1.23 times compared to the N2 process [5][7]. Potential Customers for 1.4nm Process - TSMC's top customers, including Nvidia, Apple, MediaTek, Intel, Qualcomm, and Broadcom, are likely to adopt the 1.4nm process. Nvidia is expected to significantly increase its contribution to TSMC's revenue, projected to rise from 5-10% in 2023 to over 20% by 2025 [8][9]. - Apple is anticipated to place orders worth approximately NT$1 trillion (around $33 billion) for 2nm technology by 2025, which could increase its share of TSMC's revenue significantly [9][10]. Future Cost Trends - The costs of wafers are expected to continue rising, with the 1.4nm process not utilizing expensive High NA EUV lithography technology, indicating potential for further price increases in future nodes [12][13]. - Analysis suggests that if the light source power does not increase, the overall lithography costs for future nodes could rise by up to 20% compared to the current 3nm baseline [14][16]. - The semiconductor industry is observing rising costs in EDA and IP, which may contribute to the overall increase in chip production costs in the future [17].

智通财经6月3日电，台积电CEO魏哲家在新竹召开的年度股东大会上表示，2025年销售额增速以美元计 预计将在20%区间中段。 ...

台积电2025年按美元计的销售额增速预计在20%区间中段。 台积电CEO：2025年业绩料将"稳步增长"。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the geopolitical landscape between China and the U.S., indicating that it is not a simple stalemate, despite market fears [1] - Oliver Rodzianko is the Founder and CEO of Invictus Origin, an investment management firm launched in May 2025, focusing on high-alpha strategies [1] - Invictus Origin's flagship portfolio, the Nasdaq High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio, aims to outperform the Nasdaq-100 while maintaining approximately 20% in cash reserves for downside protection [1] Group 2 - Oliver Rodzianko has extensive experience as a macro-focused investment analyst, specializing in sectors such as technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy [1] - The investment process at Invictus Origin integrates U.S. market specialization with a comprehensive understanding of international markets [1] - The firm aims to deliver durable outperformance by navigating market dislocations and intrinsic value cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor industry is facing new challenges in material supply chain stability due to TSMC's aggressive expansion in advanced packaging technology, particularly affecting the supply of low-temperature photosensitive polyimide (PSPI) materials [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Expansion and Its Impact - TSMC is significantly increasing its capacity in advanced packaging, particularly through its CoWoS technology, which is crucial for AI chip packaging [2]. - The expansion plan includes building a new packaging facility in Kumamoto, Japan, and aims to double the CoWoS capacity to meet market demand [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - As TSMC's demand for low-temperature PSPI materials rises, major supplier Asahi Kasei has decided to limit supply to Chinese packaging companies to prioritize TSMC's needs, leading to a global supply shortage [1][5]. - This limitation has directly impacted leading Chinese packaging firms like Longji Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics, which now face material supply risks [5]. Group 3: Domestic Material Development - The supply constraints have accelerated the development of domestic low-temperature PSPI materials, with companies like Mingshi New Materials achieving significant progress in product performance [5][9]. - Mingshi's materials have been validated by leading domestic packaging firms, but the company is currently undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, raising concerns about its future [5][6]. Group 4: Other Domestic Players - Another domestic company, Aisen Co., has achieved mass production of positive PSPI materials, but its products are more suited for mid-to-low-end packaging applications and do not meet high-end requirements [6][7]. - Companies like Dinglong Co. and Qiangli New Materials are also making strides in developing low-temperature PSPI materials, indicating a shift towards domestic production capabilities [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The increasing adoption of Chiplet technology and 3D packaging will further elevate the performance requirements for low-temperature PSPI materials [10]. - Domestic companies are expected to continue breakthroughs in reducing curing temperatures and enhancing thermal resistance, aiming for large-scale industrial application within 3-5 years [11].

Group 1 - TSMC's new factory in the U.S. is experiencing high demand for orders from major clients including Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom, and NVIDIA, with expectations that all orders will be fulfilled this year [1][2] - Apple remains TSMC's largest customer, planning to produce tens of millions of advanced chips at the new Arizona facility, marking a significant commitment to local manufacturing [1][2] - The geopolitical landscape is driving TSMC's clients to seek alternative manufacturing locations, which is expected to accelerate the economic scale of TSMC's U.S. operations and lead to substantial revenue growth [1][3] Group 2 - NVIDIA is heavily reliant on TSMC's U.S. factory for chip production, with plans for close collaboration and expected mass production of AI chips by the end of this year [2] - AMD, Broadcom, and Qualcomm are also key clients of TSMC's U.S. facility, with AMD focusing on high-performance computing and future technological innovations [2] - TSMC's chairman has indicated plans for a significant investment in the U.S., with projections that 30% of advanced process capacity below 2nm will be produced at the Arizona facility to meet client demands [2] Group 3 - The yield rates at TSMC's U.S. factory are reportedly comparable to those in Taiwan, indicating strong operational performance and increasing client interest in placing orders [3] - The rapid expansion of TSMC's U.S. facilities is being driven by the demand from American clients seeking reliable production capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite market turmoil, stock prices remain flat in 2025, but long-term prospects for many companies appear bright [1] Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is a leading AI stock, providing GPUs essential for AI model training and operation [4] - Data center capital expenditures are projected to increase from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Nvidia [5] - The company reported a 69% revenue increase in Q1 2026, highlighting its strong performance despite challenges in its China business [5] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a key player in the AI sector, serving as a chip foundry for high-tech companies [6] - Management anticipates a 45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI-related revenue over the next five years, with overall revenue expected to grow at nearly 20% CAGR [7] - The stock is currently valued at around 21 times forward earnings, making it an attractive investment compared to the S&P 500's 22.1 times [8] Group 3: Alphabet - Alphabet's stock is trading at 18 times forward earnings, lower than the S&P 500 and its tech peers, due to concerns over AI disruption and potential government breakup [9][11] - The company is actively engaging in the AI space with AI-powered search and generative AI features, which may mitigate fears surrounding its stock [12] Group 4: Adobe - Adobe faces similar AI-related concerns as Alphabet, but its generative AI software, Firefly, integrates well with its existing products [13] - The company continues to see steady revenue growth, with the stock trading around 20 times forward earnings, presenting a good value opportunity [16] Group 5: Amazon - Amazon's profitability is primarily driven by Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accounted for 63% of total operating profits despite only representing 19% of revenue in Q1 [18][19] - Concerns about tariffs affecting its e-commerce business are overshadowed by the growth potential of AWS, which benefits from trends in AI and cloud migration [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reaffirms that its 1.4nm process technology does not require high numerical aperture (High-NA) EUV lithography machines, stating that there is currently no compelling reason to use them [1][2] Group 1 - TSMC's next-generation process technologies, including A16 (1.6nm) and A14 (1.4nm), will not utilize High-NA EUV equipment [1] - TSMC's A14 process technology boasts a performance improvement of up to 15% at the same power and complexity, or a power reduction of 25% to 30% at the same frequency [2] - TSMC is continuously exploring ways to extend the lifespan of existing EUV technology while achieving miniaturization advantages [1][2] Group 2 - The latest High-NA EUV lithography machines from ASML are the most advanced in the world, with a price tag of $400 million, making them prohibitively expensive for many manufacturers [2] - As of now, ASML has delivered a total of 5 High-NA EUV machines to clients, including Intel and Samsung [2] - Intel is set to receive the world's first High-NA EUV lithography machine in December 2023 [2]

Group 1: Taiwan Semiconductor - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is a leading semiconductor manufacturer, producing chips for major companies, with 85% of semiconductor prototypes created using its platform [3] - The company is experiencing high demand for chips that power artificial intelligence (AI), benefiting from partnerships with clients like Nvidia, which reports strong sales [4] - TSMC has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.2% in revenue since going public in 1994, aiming to increase this to nearly 20% by 2029, with a current gross margin of 58.8% [5] - TSMC is investing $100 billion in a new facility in Arizona to enhance U.S. operations, although this may temporarily impact gross margins [6] - The company anticipates demand to double by 2025, driven by AI-focused data centers, indicating robust long-term growth opportunities [7][8] Group 2: Amazon - Amazon is heavily investing over $100 billion in its generative AI business, positioning itself as a leader in AI development [10] - The company is developing its own chips while also providing technology from leading chipmakers, alongside a managed service called Bedrock for affordable AI app creation [11] - Amazon has launched over 1,000 AI applications across various sectors, enhancing efficiency in fulfillment, advertising, and streaming [12] - With a 30% market share, AWS is the leading global cloud computing provider, significantly contributing to Amazon's profitability [13] - Amazon holds about 40% of the U.S. e-commerce market, with online store sales reaching approximately $94 billion, while advertising is its fastest-growing segment, with an 18% year-over-year increase [14][15]