Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “downward” rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the consecutive wrong policies of the United States [4] - The United States' return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Contents Global Economic News - BofA's Hartnett believes the current biggest risk comes from the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, which may reverse Asian capital outflows and threaten the global market's liquidity environment. He is bullish on the long - term prospects of international stocks and gold, with China being his most favored market, and predicts that gold may break through $6,000 [1] - UBS states that the expansion basis of the US economy is rapidly narrowing, with almost all marginal improvements in investment, consumption, and employment tied to the single theme of artificial intelligence. If the AI investment boom cools down, the US economy will quickly lose its core support, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is about 50% [1] - The US warns South Korean semiconductor companies that if they do not invest in building factories in the US, they may face a maximum 100% tariff. However, due to unstable tariff expectations and the sharp decline of the South Korean won, South Korea's finance department says large - scale investment in the US is "unlikely to start in the first half of this year" [1] - The new version Claude Opus 4.5 of Claude Code shows amazing capabilities, but its popularity has intensified the market's panic about the disruption of the software industry. A basket of SaaS stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley has fallen 15% since the beginning of the year, the worst start since 2022 [1] - EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods exported to the EU or restricting US companies from entering the EU market to counter US President Trump's tariff hikes on eight European countries for the sake of Greenland. Recently, many countries participated in the "Arctic Endurance" military exercise initiated by Denmark in Greenland [1] Global Economic Logic - The US has taken actions such as seizing Venezuela's oil and buying Greenland by force, which has led the global political order into a chaotic period and brought great uncertainty to the global economy. It has also imposed punitive tariffs on eight European countries, leading to potential tariff counter - attacks from European countries [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Nomura predicts that uncertainties related to the Fed will peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" in the market at that time [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, purchases $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, and its balance sheet has restarted expansion [2] - A Goldman Sachs analyst warns that the current downward trend in Las Vegas gambling revenue is highly similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new version of its "National Security Strategy", abandoning global hegemony and planning to adjust economic relations with China to revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation has intensified, with high - income consumers maintaining spending resilience while low - and middle - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet the rising demand for AI services [2] - TSMC estimates its capital expenditure in 2026 to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% to 37%, which is expected to reach a record high. Its strong Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom and restore investors' confidence in AI demand resilience [2]

Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet is the parent company of various businesses including Google, YouTube, Waymo, and Android, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from advertising, particularly through its Google Search engine which now integrates generative AI summaries [3][6] - The company is emerging as a leader in generative AI, having quickly caught up in the competitive landscape, which may not currently generate substantial revenue but holds significant future potential [4][7] - Alphabet's cloud computing segment, Google Cloud, is positioned for growth, especially with the anticipated rise of its Gemini AI model, similar to the growth seen with Azure due to its association with ChatGPT [6][7] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor - Taiwan Semiconductor is a critical player in the global semiconductor industry, producing the majority of advanced chips, with limited competition due to high entry costs [8] - The company is innovating with its next-generation 2-nanometer chip, which offers 25% to 30% better energy efficiency compared to its previous 3nm chip at the same speed [9][10] - Taiwan Semiconductor is expanding geographically with new fabrication plants in the U.S., Japan, and Germany, which mitigates some geopolitical risks associated with its operations in Taiwan [14]

Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel are two of the biggest names in semiconductors, but if you can only buy one of them this year, Taiwan Semiconductor is looking much more attractive than Intel.The semiconductor chip industry is, perhaps more than any other, a business sector on which the modern world is built. Whatever device you happen to be reading this on, it would not be possible without the semiconductor.For a long time, Intel (INTC 2.81%) was the undisputed world leader in semiconductor production, but t ...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) is one of the AI Stocks Analysts Are Watching Closely. On January 15, BofA Securities analyst Brad Lin raised the price target on the stock to $470.00 (from $430.00) while maintaining a “Buy” rating. Firm analysts are confident in TSM’s tech leadership, underpinned by strong pricing power, capacity stability, and dominance in premium nodes. They noted that TSMC’s tech leadership should sustain, lifting blended wafer pricing by an estimated 30% ...

Core Insights - Wedgewood Partners anticipates stronger market volatility in the coming years and has moderated its enthusiasm for investments [1] - The Wedgewood Composite returned -1.8% in Q4 2025, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's 2.7%, Russell 1000 Growth Index's 1.1%, and Russell 1000 Value Index's 3.8% [1] - Year-to-date, the Composite gained 4.3%, significantly lower than the indexes' returns of 17.9%, 18.6%, and 15.9% respectively [1] - Poor stock selection, valuation corrections of past performers, and underweighting in AI stocks contributed to the underperformance [1] - In 2026, crowded AI investments and stretched valuations are expected to pressure prudent investment decisions [1] Company Performance - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) was highlighted as a key performance contributor in Wedgewood's Q4 2025 investor letter [2] - TSMC's one-month return was 16.75%, and its shares gained 61.89% over the last 52 weeks [2] - As of January 16, 2026, TSMC's stock closed at $342.40 per share, with a market capitalization of $1.776 trillion [2] Industry Insights - TSMC is recognized by industry leaders like Broadcom and Nvidia as a "precious source" in silicon manufacturing, crucial for the AI era [3] - The company has doubled its high-performance computing (HPC) revenues to over $65 billion in the past six quarters, more than tripling since late 2021 [3] - TSMC continues to demonstrate pricing power, which is expected to drive excellent returns on capital as it accelerates capacity buildout in the coming years [3]

Group 1 - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is experiencing unprecedented demand for its chips, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, as highlighted by Jim Cramer [1] - The company reported one of its strongest quarters, indicating a bullish outlook for the semiconductor industry and challenging the notion of an AI bubble [1] - TSM is recognized as the largest chip manufacturer globally, providing integrated circuits and semiconductor devices along with fabrication services [2] Group 2 - While TSM shows potential as an investment, there are AI stocks that may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [3] - The article suggests that certain undervalued AI stocks could benefit from Trump-era tariffs and the trend of onshoring [3]

对此，CHIP中国实验室主任罗国昭认为，在AI拉动下，对先进制程的追逐会更趋激烈，尤其是高性能 计算客户，甚至会比终端厂商需求更为旺盛。因此，短期内台积电的2纳米市场"溢价"或许会格外高， 从而对终端市场价格造成一定冲击。 多重因素拉高价格 随着半导体先进制程正式进入2纳米时代，其搭载终端设备的价格与成本备受行业关注。 在日前发布的一份最新投资者报告中，香港广发证券分析师Jeff Pu透露，苹果将在今年9月发布首款折 叠屏手机iPhone Fold，同时发布的还包括iPhone 18 Pro、iPhone 18 Pro Max，三款机型均将搭载台积电2 纳米工艺的A20 Pro芯片。 不过，对于期盼已久的消费市场而言，由于采用2纳米的A20成本高企，这也使得其价格或大幅上涨， 成为苹果迄今为止最昂贵的芯片。此前，据来自供应链的消息，台积电2纳米晶圆的报价预计超3万美 元/片，2倍其4纳米晶圆价格，而单颗A20芯片成本或将达280美元，较A19芯片同比增加约80%。 事实上，在最近几个季度的财报会上，台积电总裁魏哲家曾多次暗示涨价，并表示2纳米的需求意向已 经超过3纳米。因此，供不应求的态势无疑将增加台积电2纳 ...

For TSMC ( TSM ) stock, my investment stance is a Strong Buy, as it is no longer a cyclical manufacturer. TSMC has now become the Sovereign Utility of Computation. The strong buy thesis is based on theAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking ...

本文转自【央视新闻客户端】； 台湾新竹科学园区聚集了台湾半导体产业的主要企业，也是台积电总部所在地。作为台湾半导体产业的核心企业，台积电早已成为美方锁定的重点猎杀目 标。就在本月，美台所谓"贸易协议"正式落地，根据相关协议，美国将台湾输美商品关税从20%下调至15%，而台湾已知的代价则是需向美国进行5000亿美 元的投资，其中，2500亿美元为直接投资，2500亿美元为信贷担保，更要被迫转移半导体生态系统，为美国贡献占全球40%的芯片产能。这片承载台湾经济 命脉的园区，正在被美国大口吞噬。 近日，民进党当局与美国达成所谓"贸易协议"，台湾岛内舆论为之哗然。协议重点之一是美国将台湾输美商品关税从20%下调至15%，表面上好像台湾终于 争取到与日、韩一样的待遇，实则是台湾付出了严重损害核心产业优势的惨痛代价。这项看似"平等"的协议，究竟有多么不平等？美国又是如何进行赤裸裸 的"经济掠夺"的？ 北京工商大学海峡发展研究院院长于强在接受《两岸观察》记者采访时表示，这个协议的实质它根本不是什么所谓的"贸易协议"，它就是明着在抢，它对于 台湾的影响是巨大的。因为跟着这5000亿美元去的，不仅是投资，还有台湾的技术，还有台 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the semiconductor and storage sectors, including 拓荆科技, 中微公司, and 中芯国际 [3][4]. Core Insights - TSMC's aggressive capacity expansion reflects strong confidence, with a capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 reaching up to $56 billion, a 37% increase from 2025 [10][12]. - The AI segment is expected to grow significantly, with TSMC revising its AI processor revenue CAGR to mid-high 50% [12][13]. - The storage market is experiencing price increases, with DRAM prices projected to rise by 40%-50% in Q1 2026 and NAND prices by 20% in the same period [15][18]. - The packaging and testing sector is seeing price hikes due to tight capacity and rising raw material costs, with increases expected to reach 30% [21][26]. Summary by Sections TSMC's Expansion and AI Growth - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, a 25.5% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 62.3% [10][12]. - The company anticipates continued high growth into 2026, with Q1 revenue guidance of $34.6-$35.8 billion, representing a 37.9% YoY increase [10][12]. - Advanced process nodes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) accounted for 77% of revenue, with high-performance computing (HPC) leading the growth [10][12]. Storage Market Dynamics - The storage market is benefiting from increased demand driven by AI and server capacity, leading to a historical high in supplier bargaining power [15][18]. - Specific DRAM products are expected to see significant price increases, with 64GB RDIMM DDR5 projected to rise by 40% in Q1 2026 [16][18]. Packaging and Testing Price Increases - The packaging sector is experiencing price increases due to high demand and raw material cost surges, with major Taiwanese firms reporting near-full capacity utilization [21][26]. - Companies like 力成 and 华东 are seeing increased orders and revenue visibility, indicating a positive outlook for the packaging sector [21][26].