Key Points Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company beat on sales and beat on earnings last night. Earnings are growing much faster than analysts had anticipated. 10 stocks we like better than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing › Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) stock soared 6.1% through 10:25 a.m. ET Thursday on a strong Q4 2025 earnings report. Analysts forecast TSMC to earn $2.98 per share on sales of $32.7 billion. The company instead reported last night that it earned $ ...

Market Overview - The US stock market saw a collective rise on January 15, with the Dow Jones up by 0.38%, Nasdaq up by 0.76%, and S&P 500 up by 0.53% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 3%, indicating strong performance in the semiconductor sector [2] Semiconductor Stocks Performance - Notable individual stock performances included: - COHERENT increased by over 11% - Entegris rose nearly 9% - KLA and Applied Materials both saw increases of over 7% - TSMC and ASML both rose over 6% - AMD and Lam Research increased by over 5% - NVIDIA, ARM, and Broadcom all saw gains of over 2% [2][3] TSMC Financial Performance - TSMC's market capitalization surpassed $1.8 trillion, driven by strong demand for AI hardware [4] - For Q4 2025, TSMC reported a net profit of NT$505.7 billion, a 35% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [4] - TSMC's consolidated revenue for the same quarter was NT$1.46 trillion, a 20.5% year-over-year increase, also surpassing market estimates [4] - Operating profit reached NT$564.9 billion, a 32.7% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [4] Future Projections for TSMC - TSMC forecasts Q1 2026 sales between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, exceeding market expectations of $33.22 billion [6] - The expected gross margin for Q1 2026 is between 63% and 65%, also above market estimates [6] - TSMC anticipates nearly 30% growth in sales in USD for 2026 [6] - Capital expenditures for TSMC are projected to total $40.9 billion for 2025, with expectations of $52 billion to $56 billion for 2026 [6] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - Omdia predicts that global semiconductor revenue will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for AI [6] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a year-over-year revenue growth of 20.3% in 2025, with strong performance anticipated in Q4 [6] - The growth in revenue is supported by significant expansion in the logic IC sector, with DRAM and NAND flash chip revenues expected to remain at unprecedented high levels [6]

Group 1 - The AI hardware sector has seen a resurgence due to two main factors: Goldman Sachs' strategy meeting indicating a demand of 25 million units for 1.6T optical modules and 70 million units for 800G optical modules by 2026, and TSMC's fourth-quarter earnings report showing a 35% year-over-year profit increase, exceeding expectations and marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth [1][2]. - TSMC's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is between $52 billion and $56 billion, following a total capital expenditure of $40.9 billion in 2025 [1]. - Macquarie's report highlights a constraint in the DRAM industry, stating that new capacity in the next two years can only support approximately 15GW of AI data center construction, which may lead to delays and reshuffling in global AI expansion plans [2]. Group 2 - Major companies provide core suppliers with demand and share guidance for the following year in November-December, allowing suppliers to prepare inventory. Optical modules are essential components for AI computing servers, and changes in their demand can reflect the overall demand for data centers [4]. - The anticipated demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to remain strong, particularly for overseas computing needs, which serves as a response to Macquarie's report [4]. - Concerns regarding overseas computing demand for 2026-2027 have been alleviated by recent events, potentially leading to upward revisions in order expectations for liquid cooling manufacturers [5]. Group 3 - Updates in the liquid cooling industry include NV utilizing microchannel cold plate technology, with samples sent to a leading company [7]. - Google is expected to place orders exceeding $1 billion with a mainland liquid cooling leader in 2026, significantly higher than the previous expectation of $500-600 million [13]. - A whitelist for NV liquid cooling-cold plates may include names of certain mainland listed companies by March [13].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in the US stock market has experienced significant gains, driven by strong demand for AI hardware and positive earnings reports from key companies like TSMC [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 15, US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.38%, Nasdaq up 0.76%, and S&P 500 up 0.53% [1]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 3%, indicating a broad rally in chip stocks [2]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Notable individual stock performances include: - COHERENT up over 11% - Entegris up nearly 9% - KLA and Applied Materials both up over 7% - TSMC and ASML both up over 6% [2][3]. Group 3: TSMC Financial Performance - TSMC's market capitalization surpassed $1.8 trillion, with Q4 2025 net profit reaching NT$505.7 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [4][5]. - TSMC's consolidated revenue for the quarter was NT$1.46 trillion, a 20.5% year-on-year increase, also above market estimates [5]. - The operating profit was NT$564.9 billion, a 32.7% year-on-year increase, with an operating margin of 54% [5]. Group 4: Future Projections - TSMC anticipates Q1 2026 sales between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, exceeding market expectations of $33.22 billion, with a projected gross margin of 63% to 65% [6]. - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditures, with 2025 spending at $40.9 billion and 2026 projected between $52 billion and $56 billion [7]. - Omdia forecasts that global semiconductor revenue will exceed $1 trillion by 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for AI [7].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported strong financial results for Q4 2025, with revenue of $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, and a net profit of approximately $16 billion, up 35% year-on-year, leading to a market capitalization exceeding $1.8 trillion [2][7]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, a 25.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of around $16 billion, reflecting a 35% growth [2]. - The gross margin improved to 62.3%, and the total revenue for the year was $122 billion, marking a 35.9% increase [2]. - Advanced process nodes (7nm and below) accounted for 77% of total wafer revenue in Q4, with 3nm contributing 28%, 5nm 35%, and 7nm 14% [6]. Future Outlook - TSMC expects the overall wafer foundry industry to grow by 14% in 2026, with projected Q1 2026 revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, representing a 38% year-on-year increase [6]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are anticipated to reach between $52 billion and $56 billion, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced processes [5][6]. - The company aims to maintain a long-term gross margin of over 56% and a return on equity (ROE) of over 25% [6]. AI Demand and Impact - AI-related revenue is expected to account for over 10% of total revenue in 2025, driven by increasing demand for computational power in consumer, enterprise, and sovereign AI applications [6][9]. - TSMC's CEO expressed confidence in the authenticity of AI demand, noting positive feedback from cloud service providers regarding AI's impact on business growth [9][10]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in response to AI-driven demand, with new facilities planned in the U.S., Japan, and Europe [10].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's latest earnings report significantly exceeded expectations, showcasing a strong performance with a gross margin surpassing 60% for the first time and a net profit of $16 billion, indicating robust demand for advanced process technologies driven by AI chip production [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure - TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, exceeding both sell-side and buy-side analyst expectations [2]. - The company indicated that capital investments over the next three years will be "significantly higher," reducing market concerns about potential spending pullbacks [2]. - TSMC adjusted its revenue CAGR forecast for 2024-2029 from 20% to 25%, and increased the CAGR for its AI accelerator business from the mid-40s to the mid-50s [2]. Group 2: Profitability and Margin Improvement - TSMC's Q4 gross margin reached 62.3%, surpassing previous guidance and market expectations [3]. - The operating profit margin for the quarter was 54%, exceeding market predictions [3]. - The company raised its Q1 gross margin guidance to 63-65%, significantly above analyst estimates [3]. - TSMC's long-term structural gross margin target was increased from "53% and above" to "56% and above," driven by improved pricing power and operational efficiency [3]. Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment Sector Impact - TSMC's capital expenditure outlook is expected to benefit the Asian semiconductor equipment sector, with companies like Tokyo Electron and Advantest anticipated to see strong growth [4]. - The demand for DRAM storage chips is rapidly increasing, prompting companies like SK Hynix to accelerate new factory operations [5]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - JPMorgan maintained an "overweight" rating on TSMC with a target price of 2,100 TWD, based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2027 [5]. - Bank of America also maintained a "buy" rating with a target price of 2,150 TWD, citing TSMC's position in a high-growth and profit-expanding cycle driven by ongoing AI investments [5]. - Analysts view TSMC as a critical capacity bottleneck in the AI supply chain, and the recent increase in capital expenditure guidance is seen as a positive signal for the semiconductor and AI sectors [5].

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM) is pulling ahead of Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) early in 2026, emerging as a standout winner in the global tech race while parts of the Magnificent Seven lose momentum.Shares of the Taiwanese chipmaker giant jumped 4% during Thursday morning trading after the company delivered a bullish earnings report and outlook, pushing its year-to-date gain to roughly 10%. Meanwhile, Nvidia is down about 2% over the same period.A Blowout Quarter For TSMCTSMC's fourth-quar ...

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 49,267.93, adding 118.30 points, or 0.24% [1] - The S&P 500 climbed 0.55% to 6,964.54, while the NASDAQ gained 0.84% to end at 23,670.02 [1][5] Semiconductor Sector - The rally was led by semiconductor stocks after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported a 35% jump in profit, its strongest growth in years [2][6] - Shares of TSMC surged over 5%, setting a positive tone for the chip sector, which saw broad strength [9][19] - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed nearly 3%, reflecting the sector's momentum [9] Financial Sector - Financial stocks contributed significantly to the market's advance, with Morgan Stanley shares jumping over 3% after exceeding earnings expectations [14] - Goldman Sachs climbed around 2% after posting better-than-expected profits, highlighting improved performance in fixed-income trading [15] - BlackRock's shares surged 4% after reporting assets under management exceeding $14 trillion for the first time, with earnings of $13.16 per share [16] Economic Indicators - Weekly jobless claims were reported at 198,000, significantly lower than the anticipated 215,000, indicating a resilient labor market [8][23] - The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 7.7 in January, far above forecasts, signaling improving conditions in key industrial regions [24] Oil Prices and Inflation - Falling oil prices, with Brent crude dropping over 4%, eased concerns about inflation and supported consumer spending [21][22] - The decline in oil prices was welcomed by equity investors, particularly in sectors sensitive to fuel costs [22] Geopolitical and Trade Concerns - Despite the positive market performance, ongoing trade tensions with China and uncertainty around semiconductor exports remain concerns for investors [26] - A recent proclamation imposing a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors was clarified to exclude chips critical to domestic manufacturing, easing fears of disruption [11][12]

Market Observation - The three major indices showed mixed performance on January 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 4100 points, while the ChiNext Index rebounded in the afternoon [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.04 trillion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1] - All three indices remained above the 10-day moving average, indicating strong support and no significant signs of weakness [1] TSMC Q4 2025 Performance - TSMC reported record-high quarterly revenue and profit for Q4 2025, with a gross margin exceeding 62% [3][4] - The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between $52 billion and $56 billion, reflecting confidence in long-term AI demand and current capacity constraints [3][9] - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $33.204 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.7%, exceeding previous guidance [4] - Net profit reached $16.053 billion, up 11.8% quarter-over-quarter and 35% year-over-year, marking a record high for a single quarter [5] - The gross margin was reported at 62.3%, significantly above the guidance of 57%-59%, driven by high capacity utilization and contributions from 3nm technology [6] - Operating margin stood at 54.0%, indicating strong profitability [7] Revenue Structure and Growth Drivers - Revenue from advanced processes (3nm and 5nm) accounted for over 68% of total revenue, with 3nm contributing 28% [7] - High-performance computing (HPC/AI) platforms represented 55% of revenue, surpassing the smartphone business at 32% [7] - Demand for AI accelerators continued to grow, offsetting seasonal declines in consumer electronics [7] 2026 Guidance - TSMC expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4% and a year-over-year increase of 38% [8] - The gross margin for Q1 2026 is projected to be between 63% and 65%, indicating solid pricing power and excellent cost control [8] - For the full year 2026, revenue growth is expected to approach 30% in dollar terms, significantly higher than the industry average [8] Capital Expenditure Plans - The capital expenditure budget for 2026 is set at $52 billion to $56 billion, a 32% increase compared to the actual spending of $40.9 billion in 2025 [9] - Approximately 70% of the capital expenditure will be allocated to expanding capacity for advanced processes (2nm and 3nm), with the remainder for advanced packaging and special processes [10] - This capital expenditure plan aims to alleviate current capacity shortages and seize market opportunities [11] Industry Impact - The significant capital expenditure will benefit leading semiconductor equipment companies and advanced materials suppliers [16] - AI customers may experience mixed outcomes; while long-term capacity constraints may ease, short-term competition for capacity could remain intense [16] - Competitors like Intel and Samsung face increased pressure due to TSMC's aggressive investment strategy, which sets a high bar for industry competition [16] 聚和材料 Acquisition - 聚和材料 is acquiring the blank mask business from SK Enpulse, marking its entry into the high-barrier semiconductor materials sector [33] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in producing critical materials for semiconductor manufacturing, addressing domestic demand [33][39] - The blank mask market is currently dominated by Japanese firms, with domestic production rates being very low, indicating significant growth potential for 聚和材料 [35] 蘅东光 Business Overview - 蘅东光 focuses on passive optical devices in the optical communication field, providing essential components for data center interconnectivity [40][51] - The company serves major global clients, including AFL and Coherent, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from these partnerships [45][49] - 蘅东光's products are integral to AI data centers, having passed stringent certifications required by leading tech companies [49] 领湃科技 Status - 领湃科技 has previously planned a solid-state battery technology development framework but has since clarified that it currently has no active projects in this area [55] - The company is primarily focused on surface engineering chemicals and new energy batteries, with its investment strategy centered on the new energy technology sector [55]

消息面上，台积电公布业绩显示，第四季度净利润同比大幅增长35%，创下历史新高，且超出市场预 期。第四季度毛利率达62.3%，远超市场预期。 台积电还给出2026年营收再增30%的强劲指引。分析人士指出，台积电Q4的强劲业绩及2026年营收指 引，清晰释放出人工智能热潮将持续的信号。 格隆汇1月15日｜台积电(TSM.US)涨幅扩大至超6%，刷新历史新高。总市值突破1.8万亿美元，排名超 越博通，位列美股第六。 ...