（本文作者梁永慧为招金精炼副总经理） 一、近期重点事件解析 美联储票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，当前政策立场已接近中性，美联储需依据更多经济 数据判断通胀问题与劳动力市场状况的优先关注顺序，再根据实际情况灵活调整政策方向。美联储理事 米兰则认为，2026年需累计降息超过100个基点。 市场对美联储货币宽松的预期，仍对贵金属价格形成支撑。 3.全球黄金投资规模持续扩大 世界黄金协会报告显示，2025年全球黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）资金流入量创下年度历史新高，其中 北美市场表现领跑。2025年，黄金ETF资产管理总规模实现翻倍以上增长，持仓量同步大幅攀升，两项 指标均刷新历史纪录。黄金市场日均交易额达3610亿美元，同样创下历史新高。 此外，1月7日中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，中国黄金储备为7415万盎司（约合 2306.323吨），较上月增加3万盎司（约合0.93吨），实现连续第14个月增持黄金。 1.地缘风险频发支撑金价反弹 2026新年伊始，地缘冲突引发国际社会广泛关注。1月3日，美军突然对委内瑞拉发起军事打击，轰炸其 境内军用机场、国防部、港口等目标，并抓捕委内瑞拉总统 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison has selected Goldman Sachs and UBS Group AG to assist with the planned initial public offering (IPO) of its subsidiary A.S. Watson Group [1] - The IPO is part of CK Hutchison's strategy to enhance its capital structure and unlock value from its investments [1] - A.S. Watson Group is a leading health and beauty retailer, which could attract significant investor interest due to its market position [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above 4000 points for four consecutive trading days [1] - UBS and Goldman Sachs have expressed optimism about the Chinese market in 2026, with UBS noting that the current asset valuations are not overheated and driven by long-term investment opportunities [1][4] - UBS predicts a 14% or higher earnings growth for the MSCI China Index in 2026, driven by structural changes in corporate fundamentals and sectors like high-end manufacturing and internet platforms [2][3] Group 2 - In 2025, the A-share market indices saw significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 49.57% [2] - International investors have shifted from a wait-and-see approach to active participation in the Chinese market, with a notable increase in capital inflow [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index for 2026, with market growth driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [4][5] Group 3 - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector is expected to see approximately 20% earnings growth in 2026, driven by artificial intelligence and corporate globalization strategies [5] - Goldman Sachs highlights the potential for significant capital inflows, predicting a record net purchase of $200 billion from southbound funds in 2026 [5] - The firm recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from AI development, export-oriented companies, and those with substantial shareholder returns [5][6]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above 4000 points for four consecutive trading days [2] - UBS and Goldman Sachs have expressed optimism about the Chinese market in 2026, highlighting that the current valuation levels are not overheated and that the market is driven by long-term investment rather than speculative trading [2][6] - UBS predicts a 14% or higher earnings growth for the MSCI China Index in 2026, driven by sectors such as internet platforms, high-end manufacturing, and companies with global expansion capabilities [4] Group 2 - In 2025, the A-share market outperformed expectations, with major indices showing significant increases: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index by 49.57% [3] - The valuation of the MSCI China Index is approximately 13 times earnings, slightly above the ten-year average, indicating room for growth [3] - International investors have shifted from a passive to an active approach in the Chinese market, with a notable increase in capital inflow [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index for 2026, with growth driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [6] - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector is expected to see a profit growth of around 20% in 2026, supported by artificial intelligence and corporate strategies [6] - High levels of interest from foreign investors in Chinese technology and AI companies are noted, with a significant gap in valuation compared to similar U.S. firms [5][6] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs anticipates record net inflows of $200 billion from southbound capital in 2026, alongside a potential 3 trillion RMB increase in domestic asset reallocation [7] - Investment themes to focus on include companies benefiting from AI development, export leaders, and those with substantial shareholder returns [7] - High valuations are seen in sectors such as technology hardware, insurance, materials, media/entertainment, and internet retail, which are rated as overweight by Goldman Sachs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a positive outlook for the Chinese market in 2026, driven by valuation recovery and structural changes in corporate fundamentals, with foreign investment showing increased interest and participation [3][5][8]. Market Performance in 2025 - In 2025, major A-share indices saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index by 49.57% [4]. - The overall performance of the Chinese capital market in 2025 was described as "comprehensive and exceeding expectations" [5]. Factors Supporting Market Growth - Valuation levels are currently reasonable, with the MSCI China Index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13, slightly above the past decade's average [5]. - Investor participation remains below historical highs, indicating potential for further growth [5]. - External factors, including global economic shifts and supportive domestic policies, are expected to benefit the Chinese market [5]. Structural Changes in Corporations - Chinese companies are shifting their operational focus from "scale first" to "internal improvement," emphasizing profitability quality, technological barriers, long-term value, and innovation [5]. - UBS forecasts a potential earnings growth of 14% or higher for the MSCI China Index in 2026, driven by sectors such as internet platforms, high-end manufacturing, and companies with global expansion capabilities [5][6]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors' attitudes towards Chinese assets have shifted from cautious observation to active participation, with a noticeable influx of capital [5][6]. - Despite a significant recovery in foreign investment in 2025, there remains considerable room for increased allocation compared to the averages from 2017 to 2021 [6]. Predictions for 2026 - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating for A-shares and H-shares, predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index in 2026 [8]. - The market's growth momentum is expected to transition from valuation expansion to earnings-driven growth, particularly in the TMT sector, which is projected to see earnings growth of around 20% [8][9]. Investment Themes and Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on four key investment themes: companies benefiting from AI development, sectors supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan," leading export companies, and firms with substantial shareholder returns [9]. - The firm has assigned overweight ratings to sectors including technology hardware, insurance, materials, media/entertainment, and internet retail [9].

Core Insights - UBS Global Wealth Management US announced that Hollenbaugh, Rukeyser, Safro & Williams has been named to Forbes America's Top Private Wealth Management Teams list for 2025, ranking 4 nationally [1] - This ranking makes it the highest ranked UBS team on the list and marks the third consecutive year that the team has received this recognition [1] - Hollenbaugh, Rukeyser, Safro & Williams consists of a 13-person team [1]

Core Insights - The 26th UBS Greater China Conference will be held in Shanghai from January 12, 2026, focusing on China's economic and policy dynamics, global positioning, financial and industry development, technological advancements, and sustainable growth [1][2] - The conference is expected to attract over 3,600 participants, including more than 2,300 global institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and private investors, with participating companies having a combined market capitalization of approximately $4.3 trillion [1] Group 1: Conference Overview - The theme of the conference is "New frontiers: Growth in a transforming world," aligning with China's 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - UBS Group CEO Sergio P. Ermotti emphasized China's resilience and innovation in advanced manufacturing and AI, presenting new opportunities for global investors [2] - The conference will feature a series of media events with UBS executives, economists, and industry analysts discussing key topics relevant to investment decisions in 2026 [2] Group 2: Participant Insights - There has been a 32% year-on-year increase in the number of international investors from the US, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa attending the conference [2] - UBS has over 35 years of experience in the mainland Chinese market and 60 years in Hong Kong, positioning itself at the intersection of domestic and international capital market demands [2] Group 3: Event Schedule - On January 13, 2026, sessions will cover the outlook for the Chinese stock market and macroeconomic trends, featuring key UBS analysts [3] - On January 14, 2026, discussions will focus on Chinese companies going global, manufacturing upgrades, and the AI industry outlook, with insights from senior UBS economists and analysts [4]

Core Viewpoint - UBS is committed to providing diverse financial products and services to various clients, emphasizing a customer-first philosophy, and aims to help clients achieve their investment goals [2]. Group 1: UBS Greater China Conference - The 26th UBS Greater China Conference will be held in Shanghai from January 12, 2026, focusing on the theme "New frontiers: Growth in a transforming world" [5]. - The conference will discuss China's 14th Five-Year Plan, economic and policy dynamics, global positioning and strategic transformation, financial and industry development, technological advancements, and sustainable development [5]. - The event is expected to attract over 3,600 participants, including more than 2,300 global institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and private investors, with participating companies having a combined market value of approximately $4.3 trillion [5]. Group 2: Insights from UBS Executives - Sergio P. Ermotti, CEO of UBS Group, highlighted China's resilience and innovation in advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence, presenting new opportunities for global investors [6]. - Hu Zhizhe, President of UBS China, noted a 32% year-on-year increase in international investor participation from the US, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, reflecting a growing interest in the Chinese market [6]. - UBS has over 35 years of experience in the mainland Chinese market and 60 years in Hong Kong, positioning itself at the intersection of domestic and international capital market demands [6]. Group 3: Conference Activities - UBS will host a series of media events during the conference, featuring senior UBS executives, economists, and industry analysts discussing key topics [6]. - On January 13 and 14, 2026, the focus will be on the outlook for the Chinese stock market, macroeconomic trends, the AI industry, and the international expansion of Chinese enterprises [9][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the Chinese capital market is expected to perform beyond expectations in 2026, with significant interest from foreign investors and a shift towards active participation in the market [1][3][5] - UBS highlights that the MSCI China Index's price-to-earnings ratio is around 13 times, slightly above the ten-year average, indicating that the market is not overheated [3][4] - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares, predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index in 2026 [5][6] Group 2 - In 2025, major A-share indices saw significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index by 49.57% [2] - UBS expects a 14% or higher profit growth for the MSCI China Index in 2026, driven by sectors such as internet platforms, high-end manufacturing, and companies with global expansion capabilities [3][4] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the growth momentum in 2026 will shift from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth, particularly in the TMT sector, which is expected to see a profit increase of about 20% [6][7] Group 3 - Foreign investors' interest in Chinese assets has significantly increased, with a notable shift from passive observation to active participation, as evidenced by the re-establishment of teams focused on China [3][4] - The allocation of global top 40 international investors to Chinese assets has rebounded but still has room for growth compared to the averages from 2017 to 2021 [4] - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on four investment themes: companies benefiting from AI development, sectors supported by the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading export companies, and firms with substantial shareholder returns [7]

ab Global Research 5 January 2026 China Economic Comment China Weekly: Holiday data, better PMIs, trade- in subsidies, property easing 2026 New Year holiday: tourism data, duty-free sales, passenger turnover During the 3-day 2026 New Year holiday (Jan 1-3, 2026), domestic tourism visitors and total revenue recorded 142mn person*times (+5% compared to 3-day 2024 holiday) and RMB 84.8bn (+6% compared to 2024 holiday), 15% and 12% above 3-day 2019 holiday levels, respectively. Tourism revenue per visitor was 9 ...