Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that targeted tariffs may support the US dollar in the short term [1] - UBS analysts suggest that the US may impose tariffs on countries that have not made significant progress in trade agreements while extending tariff suspensions for those that have [1] - The report indicates that targeted tariffs against specific countries tend to strengthen the dollar, whereas broad tariffs generally weaken it [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts indicate that the impact of a potential further suspension of tariffs on the US dollar remains uncertain, with a 90-day tariff suspension ending on July 9 [1] Group 1 - A further suspension of tariffs may be interpreted as a reluctance to implement tariffs, potentially boosting risk-sensitive currencies [1] - If high tariffs are avoided, the US dollar could receive some initial support [1] - However, a reduction in tariffs might lead the market to price in expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that if tariffs had not boosted inflation expectations, he would have already cut interest rates [1]

ab Global Research 30 June 2025 China Economic Comment China Weekly: Sliding Home Sales, Trade-In to Continue, Trade Talks, Weak May Profits High frequency: sliding home sales, softer port activities in June 30-city property sales declined further to -11% YoY in the first 28 days of June from -3% YoY in May. That in tier 1 cities slid to -7% YoY, tier 2 cities narrowed decline to - 11% YoY and tier 3 cities weakened to -17% YoY (also see latest China housing survey). Port cargo throughput and container thro ...

UBS Group AG (UBS) is looking like an interesting pick from a technical perspective, as the company reached a key level of support. Recently, UBS's 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, known as a "golden cross."There's a reason traders love a golden cross -- it's a technical chart pattern that can indicate a bullish breakout is on the horizon. This kind of crossover is formed when a stock's short-term moving average breaks above a longer-term moving average. Typicall ...

Core Insights - The American dream of owning a large house with a white picket fence is fading for many, yet 379,000 new millionaires emerged in the U.S. last year, indicating a shift in wealth accumulation [1][2]. Group 1: Millionaire Growth - According to UBS, over 1,000 new millionaires are created daily in the U.S., with the ultra-high-net-worth population growing by 1.5% [2]. - The U.S. has the highest number of millionaires globally, four times that of China, and surpasses the combined total of millionaires in France, the UK, Germany, Canada, Japan, and Australia [3]. Group 2: Wealth Composition - The surge in millionaire numbers is primarily driven by real estate appreciation, alongside record performance in the stock market [4]. - The "middle-class millionaire" segment, defined as those with assets between $1 million and $5 million, is becoming the main growth driver, holding a total wealth of approximately $107 trillion, which is over four times that of the early 2000s [5]. - In the U.S., real estate and mortgages account for 30% of wealth, while securities and financial instruments make up 37%, highlighting the effectiveness of investment strategies [5]. Group 3: Future Wealth Transfer - An estimated $83 trillion in wealth will be transferred globally over the next 20 to 25 years, with $74 trillion expected to be passed down through generations, suggesting a continued rise in new millionaires [6]. Group 4: Economic Disparities - Despite the increase in millionaires, many Americans face economic challenges, with the top 20% of households holding an average net worth of $4.3 million, representing 71% of national wealth, while the bottom 50% average only $60,000 [7]. - Ordinary Americans are accumulating wealth through insurance and retirement plans, although younger generations have yet to fully embrace these methods [7]. Group 5: Real Estate Investment Advice - Real estate mogul Barbara Corcoran advises potential investors to act quickly in the current market, suggesting that a decrease in interest rates could lead to a surge in property prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for June is highly anticipated, especially after the unexpected decline in private sector employment reported by ADP, indicating significant weakness in the labor market, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts sooner than expected [1][2]. Employment Data Expectations - Media surveys predict that June's non-farm payroll will increase by 106,000, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [2][3]. - UBS forecasts a more conservative increase of 100,000 jobs, while Citigroup is even more pessimistic, predicting only 85,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially reaching 4.4% [2][3]. - Analysts warn that if the non-farm payroll data falls below 60,000, it could raise concerns about stagflation [2][3]. Labor Market Indicators - Various labor market indicators have shown signs of weakening, with a notable increase in ongoing unemployment claims, which rose by 67,000 between May and June [5][8]. - Citigroup highlights a significant slowdown in hiring activity, particularly in the private sector, which typically sees an increase of around 800,000 jobs in June [8][10]. Wage Growth and Immigration Policy - Wage growth is expected to slow, with Citigroup predicting a month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings to drop from 0.4% in May to 0.2% in June, reflecting weak labor demand [11]. - Changes in immigration policy may also impact employment data, as recent court rulings could affect the temporary work permits of many recent immigrants, introducing uncertainty into the job market [13][14]. Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that market volatility following the non-farm payroll report is expected to be limited, with a focus on stagflation risks [16][18]. - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is under scrutiny, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September, especially if June's employment data is weak [19][20]. - UBS and Citigroup both suggest that if the labor market continues to show weakness, the Fed may act sooner than anticipated, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points expected by the end of the year [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has upgraded the luxury goods sector rating from underweight to benchmark allocation based on tactical and structural considerations, indicating a potential bottoming out of the sector after significant declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Projections - UBS reports that the luxury goods sector has reached an extreme oversold condition, with a 100% probability of outperforming the market over the next six months [2][4]. - The sector is currently at a near three standard deviation oversold state, a rare occurrence historically [3]. - The expected earnings revisions for the luxury sector are less severe than the overall market, suggesting that stock prices have already reflected more pessimistic expectations than warranted [6]. Group 2: Valuation and Structural Support - The luxury goods sector's 12-month forward P/E ratio premium relative to the market is currently at 80%, which, while above the historical average of 63%, is only slightly higher than normal levels [7]. - The valuation metrics have returned to levels seen a decade ago, with major European luxury companies' earnings per share only 9% above trend lines, compared to peaks of 50% above [7]. - The U.S. market provides structural support for luxury goods, accounting for approximately 21% of the luxury market and nearly 33% of its growth, driven by factors such as stock market wealth effects and excess savings among high-income households [9][11]. Group 3: Long-term Structural Advantages - The luxury goods industry possesses unique structural advantages, including high brand value, long brand lifespans, and the appreciation of high-end luxury goods, alongside growth in the middle class in emerging markets [11]. - For instance, in India, the highest income quintile is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2024 to 2030, significantly outpacing the overall population growth rate of 1.3% [11].

瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马克斯•卡斯泰利表示，这些担忧表明，"非常明显"的 是，关税措施改变了储备管理者对美元的看法。 调查称，29%的受访者希望减少对美国资产的敞口，以应对近期的事态发展。然而，在未来一年，25% 的央行表示，在剔除那些希望增加美元敞口的央行后，它们预计将减少美元敞口，略低于过去一年。 卡斯泰利说:"当你问:你认为美元的主导地位真的会发生重大变化吗?答案是否定的。"他补充称，储备管 理者需要时间进行调整。 近80%的受访者预计，美元(目前占外汇储备的58%)仍将是全球储备货币。在未来一年，黄金是最大的 赢家，52%的央行希望增加黄金储备。 卡斯泰利表示，这主要反映出新兴市场央行对制裁风险的担忧，主要涉及存放在美国的黄金。特朗普的 政策也重新引发了德国对其央行黄金储备的质疑，其中一些黄金储备存放在纽约联邦储备银行。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银资产管理公司周四公布的一项调查显示，三分之二的央行管理者担心美联储的 独立性受到威胁，近一半的官员认为美国的法治可能会恶化到足以严重影响他们的资产配置。 近40家央行中有35%认为，美国可能会要求盟友将长期债务转换为其他工具，如超长期零息债 ...

瑞银：特朗普对越南的20%关税处于预期范围的低端 金十数据7月3日讯，瑞银经济学家William Deng在一份研究报告中说，美国对越南商品征收的20%关税 处于预期范围的低端。越南允许美国商品免税进入该国的决定"在很大程度上是意料之中的"，因为美国 产品在技术和能源等领域的更多准入应该有利于越南的经济增长。该贸易协议的细节对于确定对越南的 经济影响至关重要，尤其是对转运货物的影响，转运货物将面临40%的关税。今后一个关键的观察点 是，是否有进一步向美国和国际资本开放金融市场的细节。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP growth is expected to remain robust at 5.0-5.2% YoY for Q2 2025, supported by front-loading of exports and earlier government stimulus measures [4][32] - The property market continues to face challenges, with 30-city property sales declining by 10% YoY in June, and top 100 developers' contract sales volume down by 35% YoY [9][19] - Manufacturing PMIs show slight improvements, with NBS manufacturing PMI at 49.7 and Caixin manufacturing PMI at 50.4 in June, indicating a less negative growth momentum [7][10] Economic Data Summary - **GDP Growth**: Q2 GDP growth is projected at 5.0-5.2% YoY, with a slower sequential growth compared to Q1 [4][32] - **Industrial Production**: Expected to soften to 5.4% YoY in June, down from 5.8% YoY in May [3][16] - **Retail Sales**: Anticipated to moderate to 6% YoY in June, slightly down from 6.4% YoY in May [23] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: Overall FAI growth likely recorded 3% YoY in June, with property investment declining by 10-12% YoY [20] - **Exports and Imports**: Export growth expected to edge down to 4% YoY in June, while imports may improve to 1% YoY [23] Sector-Specific Insights - **Manufacturing Sector**: NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2ppt to 49.7 in June, with improvements in new orders and production indices [7][10] - **Property Sector**: The property market continues to weaken, with significant declines in sales and new starts [9][19] - **Automotive Sector**: Auto retail sales growth picked up to 24% YoY in June, driven by a low base and trade-in subsidies [23][38] High-Frequency Data - **PMIs**: NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5 in June, indicating slight growth in services, while construction PMI improved significantly [8] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth moderated to 1% YoY in June, reflecting a slowdown in trade activities [9][17] - **Credit Growth**: Total social financing (TSF) credit growth likely edged up to 8.8% YoY in June, with new RMB loans at approximately RMB 1.85 trillion [30][31]