Real Estate Sector - Former President Trump's proposal to ban large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes has led to significant declines in stock prices for major real estate companies, with American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) down 4.7% and Blackstone (BX) falling as much as 9.3% before settling at a 5.4% decrease [2][3]. Artificial Intelligence Sector - AI startup Anthropic is in the process of raising $10 billion, which would increase its valuation to approximately $350 billion, following substantial investments from Microsoft and Nvidia [4]. Automotive Technology - Hyundai Mobis and Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. (QCOM) have entered into a broad agreement to collaborate on software-defined vehicle (SDV) architecture for Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS), aiming to enhance vehicle capabilities through integrated technology [5]. Energy Sector - The U.S. Department of Energy has announced a selective rollback of sanctions on Venezuela, allowing the transport and sale of Venezuelan crude and oil products to global markets, with proceeds to be managed in U.S.-controlled accounts [6]. Financial Markets - UBS Group AG (UBS) successfully completed a €3 billion debt offering, structured in two tranches, attracting over $21 billion in investor bids [8].

Group 1 - BlackRock increased its holdings in Haier Smart Home, WuXi Biologics, Midea Group, and Bank of China on January 2, 2026 [1][3] - The shareholding percentage of WuXi Biologics increased from 5.32% to 6.14%, Midea Group from 5.15% to 6.75%, Bank of China from 5.98% to 6.11%, and Haier Smart Home from 7.72% to 8.34% [3] - Previously, on December 29, 2025, BlackRock had reduced its holdings in Midea Group from 7.03% to 5.16% and in Bank of China from 6.07% [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that China's GDP growth in 2026 will exceed market expectations, recommending an overweight position in Chinese stocks [4][5] - The report anticipates a continuation of the bull market in Chinese stocks, with annual growth rates of 15% to 20% in 2026 and 2027, supported by earnings growth and valuation re-rating [5] - UBS Wealth Management expressed optimism for the Chinese market, highlighting advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance as new growth engines, with a projected 37% earnings growth for the Hang Seng Tech Index in 2026 [5]

Group 1 - UBS has raised its gold price forecast for the first three quarters of 2026 to $5000 per ounce, citing factors such as central bank purchases, expanding fiscal deficits, declining U.S. interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1] - The bank expects gold prices to drop to $4800 per ounce by the end of 2026, which is $500 higher than the previous forecast of $4300 [1] - UBS predicts that commodities will play a more significant role in investment portfolios by 2026, with notable investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and agriculture, while gold remains a valuable diversification option [1] Group 2 - The demand for safe-haven assets has increased due to the recent U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, according to analysts [2] - The U.S. manufacturing index for December has dropped to its lowest point in 14 months, which may impact market sentiment [2] - Gold futures for January delivery rose by 1% to $4482.20 per ounce, marking the highest settlement price since December 26, while silver futures surged by 5.7% to $80.53 per ounce, reaching a new high [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management predicts that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce by the end of Q1 2026, driven by central bank purchases, expanding fiscal deficits, declining U.S. interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Commodity Market Outlook - The overall commodity market is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant returns anticipated due to supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical tensions, and global energy transition trends [1][3]. - UBS is particularly optimistic about investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and agricultural products, while gold remains a valuable asset for risk diversification in investment portfolios [1][2]. Specific Commodity Insights - Copper and aluminum are expected to face further supply shortages, driven by the ongoing global clean energy transition and electrification, making them core investment assets [2]. - Oil prices are projected to rebound in the second half of the year as current oversupply conditions ease with steady demand growth and slowing supply growth from non-OPEC producers [2]. Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices are expected to rise throughout the year, supported by central bank purchases, large fiscal deficits, declining U.S. real interest rates, and persistent geopolitical risks [2][3]. - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, with a projected decline to around $4,800 by the end of 2026 [3]. Political and Financial Risks - If political or financial risks escalate, gold prices could potentially reach $5,400 per ounce, an increase from the previous target of $4,900 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a strong recovery in 2025, with total fundraising reaching HKD 274.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 200% [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to maintain its momentum into 2026, with over 300 companies having submitted listing applications [2] - The influx of southbound and foreign capital is anticipated to continue, contributing to the growth of the IPO market [3] - The divergence in performance between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares and U.S. stocks since November 2025 is attributed to a rapid increase in Hong Kong stocks, leading to a normal adjustment phase [4] Group 2: Foreign Investment Dynamics - Foreign capital's participation in Hong Kong IPOs is evolving, with a significant portion of investors now coming from foreign sources, approximately two-thirds of IPO participants [1][2] - Notable foreign funds, such as M&G and Schroders, are increasingly participating as cornerstone investors, indicating a long-term commitment to the Hong Kong market [5][6] - Foreign investors are showing a preference for leading companies across various sectors, focusing on quality rather than a broad investment approach [6] Group 3: Factors Influencing Companies to List in Hong Kong - Companies are attracted to the Hong Kong market due to its efficient approval process, which aligns well with their strategic planning [2][9] - The ability to raise foreign currency funds in Hong Kong supports companies' global expansion and acquisition strategies [9] - The perception of higher valuation premiums for industry leaders in Hong Kong compared to A-shares is influencing companies' decisions to list [9] Group 4: Market Mechanisms and Investor Protection - The implementation of the "B mechanism" has improved the willingness of companies to list in Hong Kong by allowing larger companies to issue a smaller percentage of shares initially [10] - This mechanism enhances the pricing power of institutional investors, leading to more professional and stable pricing, which benefits the market [10][11] - The current structure ensures that retail investors still have reasonable access to IPOs while protecting them from potential losses due to overvaluation [11] Group 5: Future Outlook for Specific Sectors - The AI sector is expected to see increased activity in the Hong Kong market, with more companies from the AI supply chain and related fields planning to list [12] - Investors are likely to assign premium valuations to AI-related companies, reflecting confidence in this growth sector [12]

Group 1 - UBS's long position in ZTE Corporation's H-shares decreased from 8.17% to 7.98% as of December 30, 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the non-bank financial industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the wealth management industry is evolving from a seller-driven sales model to a buyer-driven advisory model, with significant growth potential in Asia as national wealth increases and household savings shift towards financial assets [2]. - It highlights the importance of learning from overseas wealth management experiences, particularly from Europe and the United States, to enhance the development of wealth management in China [2]. Summary by Sections UBS Group - European Banking System - UBS is the only international bank that has made wealth management its core strategic focus, with a total investment asset scale reaching $6.8 trillion by Q3 2025, of which the wealth management department accounts for $4.7 trillion, or 70% [2][11]. - The wealth management strategy is centered around a "One-firm" model, integrating investment banking, asset management, and commercial banking to provide comprehensive solutions [22]. - UBS targets high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth clients, with specific asset thresholds for different regions, ensuring a focus on affluent clientele [24][27]. Morgan Stanley - American Banking System - Morgan Stanley has a long history and is recognized as a leading financial services company, with a total asset management scale of $3 trillion, ranking 6th globally in wealth management [38]. - The company has shifted its focus towards wealth management, which has shown stable growth over the years, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis [39]. - Morgan Stanley employs a strategy of cost control, business synergy, and compensation incentives to enhance productivity and client service [41]. Charles Schwab - American Discount Brokerage - Charles Schwab has transitioned from a discount brokerage to a leading wealth management institution, offering a full suite of financial services [2]. - The company targets retail clients with a low-cost model, rapidly increasing its asset management scale through client retention and product innovation [2]. - Schwab's revenue is primarily driven by assets under management (AUM), having moved away from reliance on trading commissions [2]. BlackRock - American Fund Management - BlackRock is the largest asset management company globally, with an asset scale of $11.6 trillion by the end of 2024, focusing on passive investment strategies [2]. - The company has diversified its product offerings from fixed income to equity investments, with a significant emphasis on its iShares ETF as a growth driver [2]. - BlackRock's revenue model is based on AUM management fees, supplemented by performance fees and consulting services [2].

Group 1 - UBS's long position in ZTE Corporation - H shares decreased from 8.17% to 7.98% as of December 30, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, targeting $4,750 per ounce, but raises short-term caution due to insufficient momentum in recent price increases and heightened volatility [1][20]. Group 1: Short-term Concerns - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the performance of silver, platinum, and palladium rather than independent bullish factors for gold itself [1][11]. - Gold's volatility has surged to levels seen at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, diminishing its appeal as a "safe haven" asset in private investment portfolios [1][6]. - The relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken down, indicating a potential for price correction in the absence of new market stimuli [1][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current gold volatility is linked to historical data suggesting that high volatility often correlates with lower future returns [6]. - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to around 65, historically indicating weaker performance for both gold and silver in the following three months [14]. - UBS highlights that when investors aggressively pursue silver, it often signals an overheated market that requires cooling [16]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, UBS believes conditions for a significant decline (over 20%) in gold prices are not present, as historical patterns show such declines are typically accompanied by decreased stock market volatility and rising credit spreads [17][20]. - Key support factors for gold's long-term bullish trend include central bank purchases, stable ETF inflows, and the undervaluation of gold mining stocks [20][22][27]. - Emerging market central banks, which hold only 7-11% of their reserves in gold, are expected to continue buying during price corrections, providing support for gold prices [20].

Group 1: Commodity Market Movements - Concerns over supply shortages and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have led to significant movements in the commodity market, with silver rising over 6% and gold nearing $4500 per ounce [1] - The industrial metals market also saw gains, with copper reaching historical highs, driven by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [1][6] Group 2: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its gold price target to $5000 per ounce, citing increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and geopolitical risks [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could rise to $4900 per ounce, with potential for even higher prices if political or financial risks escalate [2][3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged, with a closing increase of 7.95% in COMEX silver futures, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications [3] - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and solar panels [3] Group 4: Industrial Metals Supply Concerns - The London Metal Exchange reported a collective rise in industrial metals, with copper prices increasing over 4% due to supply concerns from major mines [6] - Analysts highlight that the copper market is facing a supply crunch, exacerbated by labor strikes and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to a significant market gap [6][7] Group 5: U.S. Tariff Implications - The potential for the U.S. to impose tariffs on copper imports for the electricity and construction sectors has added volatility to the market, with significant increases in copper inventories in the U.S. [7] - UBS notes that the U.S. holds a substantial portion of global copper inventories, but its consumption is low, raising concerns about supply for other regions [7]