每经AI快讯，8月7日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数小幅高开，现涨超1%。中通快递、名创优品涨超4%，万 国数据涨超3%，爱奇艺涨超2%，小鹏汽车涨超1%，哔哩哔哩跌超1%。 ...

中通快递(ZTO.US)盘前涨超4.2%，报20.8美元；H股今日收涨4.15%，报163.1港元。 （原标题：美股异动｜中通快递盘前涨超4.2% 广东省快递行业开启"反内卷" 底价整体上调0.4元） 消息面上，据南方都市报，8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上。按照有 关部门要求，各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收，否则将遭受重罚。多位快递企业人士证实了该消 息，"确实是涨价了，0.1kg不能低于1.4元，已经开始了。" 另外，招银国际近日发布研报指，上周国家邮政局与快递运营商的座谈会，加上发改委在新闻发报会中 提出修改价格法的意见，以响应政府高层推进"反内卷"的意愿，这些举措将在未来3-6个月内成为快递 行业的利好催化剂。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - Zhongtong Express has successfully launched the first regular unmanned delivery route in Tibet, addressing the challenges of logistics in high-altitude areas [1][2] - The introduction of unmanned vehicles has significantly reduced delivery costs and improved efficiency, with a notable decrease in delivery time for local residents [1][2] - The company plans to expand its unmanned delivery network to cover more towns in the region within the next month [2] Cost and Efficiency Improvements - Previously, manual delivery to remote towns incurred a monthly driver cost of 7,500 yuan and fuel costs of 50 yuan for a 60 km round trip [1] - The investment in two unmanned vehicles totaled 120,000 yuan, with each charge costing only 15 yuan, allowing for three 60 km round trips [1] - Unmanned vehicles have improved delivery frequency, with one vehicle now able to make daily trips, reducing overall delivery time by one hour [1] Technological Impact and Future Plans - The unmanned delivery model is seen as a transformative solution for logistics in extreme environments, with potential applications in similar regions both domestically and internationally [4] - The successful implementation in Tibet serves as a reference for expanding logistics capabilities in other challenging terrains, such as deserts and mountainous areas [4] - Zhongtong Express aims to create a comprehensive highland smart delivery network, enhancing service accessibility for remote communities [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express (02057) has seen a rise of over 4%, currently trading at 163.3 HKD, with a transaction volume of 542 million HKD, following a price increase in the express delivery sector in Guangdong Province [1] Industry Summary - Starting from August 4, the base price for express delivery in Guangdong Province has been raised by 0.4 HKD per ticket, with the average price now exceeding 1.4 HKD [1] - Companies are mandated not to collect below the cost price of 1.4 HKD, with penalties for non-compliance [1] - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need to address issues such as "involution" competition and illegal charges in rural areas, aiming to maintain a healthy development environment for the industry [1] Company Summary - Zheshang Securities indicates that with the end of the off-peak season and the upcoming peak season in September, there is potential for broader price stabilization and recovery, which may alleviate pressure on franchise operations [1] - Recently, Shentong Express's acquisition of Daniao marks the beginning of resource consolidation in the express delivery industry under the national anti-involution policy [1] - The National Postal Administration encourages mergers and restructuring among express delivery companies, leading to a healthier industry structure and optimized competitive ecology, which may present sector-wide investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express (02057) has seen a rise of over 4%, currently trading at 163.3 HKD, with a transaction volume of 542 million HKD, following a price increase in the express delivery sector in Guangdong Province [1] Industry Summary - Starting from August 4, the base price for express delivery in Guangdong Province has been raised by 0.4 HKD per ticket, with the average price exceeding 1.4 HKD. Companies are mandated not to collect below this cost price, or they will face severe penalties [1] - The National Postal Administration held a meeting on July 29, emphasizing the need to address issues such as "involution" competition and illegal charges in rural areas, aiming to maintain a healthy development environment for the industry [1] Company Summary - Zheshang Securities indicates that with the end of the off-peak season and the upcoming peak season in September, there is potential for broader price stabilization and recovery, which may alleviate pressure on franchise operations and improve performance in the express delivery sector [1] - Recently, Shentong Express's acquisition of Daniao marks the beginning of resource consolidation in the express delivery industry under the national anti-involution policy. In the long term, the National Postal Administration encourages mergers and restructuring among express delivery companies, leading to a healthier industry structure and optimized competitive ecology, which may present sector-wide investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - Zhongtong Express-W (02057) has seen a rise of over 4%, currently up 4.28% at HKD 163.3, with a trading volume of HKD 542 million [1] - Starting from August 4, the minimum express delivery price in Guangdong Province has been increased by HKD 0.4 per ticket, raising the average price to above HKD 1.4 [1] - The National Postal Administration held a meeting on July 29 to address issues such as "involution" competition and illegal charges in rural areas, emphasizing the need for a healthy development of the industry [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities predicts that with the end of the off-peak season and the arrival of the peak season in September, there is potential for broader price stabilization and recovery, which may alleviate pressure on franchise operations [1] - Recently, Shentong Express's acquisition of Daniao marks the beginning of resource consolidation in the express delivery industry under the national anti-involution policy [1] - The National Postal Administration encourages mergers and restructuring among express delivery companies, leading to a healthier industry structure and optimized competitive ecology, which may present sector-wide investment opportunities [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of anti-involution policies in Guangdong Province starting July 7, 2025, which aims to stabilize pricing and protect the rights of couriers [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Implementation of Anti-Involution Policies**: - Guangdong Province has established a guiding group to adjust pricing standards based on the cost standards set by the Yiwu Postal Administration, with prices for major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu set at approximately 1.48 CNY, 1.45 CNY, and 1.40 CNY per kilogram respectively [1][4]. - A 15-day lock period from August 5 to 20 was established to prevent cross-region pickups, with strict enforcement of the guiding prices [1][4]. - **Market Performance**: - The average growth rate of the express delivery industry in the first half of 2025 was 16.8%, with a decline of 6.8%. The expected annual growth rate is projected to reach 18% to 19% [6]. - Daily average package volume in Guangdong reached 129 million, accounting for about 40% of the national total, with Zhongtong leading at 34 million packages daily [2]. - **Pricing Adjustments**: - The average price for regular franchisees ranges from 1.20 to 1.25 CNY per kilogram, while discounted express services are priced lower, with Zhongtong's special express at approximately 1.05 CNY [2][5]. - A price increase of 0.2 CNY per package was implemented across all brands in Guangdong, with adjustments based on market conditions [5]. - **Competitive Dynamics**: - Zhongtong and Yuantong are expected to benefit from the price adjustments, as they can narrow the cost gap with competitors, enhancing their competitive edge [7][8]. - Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu are focusing on price increases to mitigate losses [7]. - **Future Outlook**: - The express delivery market is expected to see a stable and prolonged price increase trend, particularly during peak seasons from August to September [5]. - The introduction of mandatory social insurance for couriers is anticipated to further drive price increases, with an expected average rise of around 0.15 CNY [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: - Zhongtong's system cost is approximately 1.25 CNY per kilogram, leading to widespread losses among outlets due to pricing pressures [3]. - The profit margins between different brands vary significantly, with Zhongtong's single ticket profit at 0.26 CNY and Yuantong at 0.15 CNY, indicating a direct impact on pricing power [17]. - **Strategic Moves by Companies**: - Shentong's acquisition of Alibaba's Dan Niao may provide short-term benefits, but long-term success will depend on improving pricing capabilities in the low-price segment [9]. - Jitu faces challenges with network integration post-acquisition of Best Express, leading to increased operational costs [10]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: - There is currently no significant shortage of couriers, with average earnings between 7,000 to 12,000 CNY. However, upcoming regulations requiring social insurance may lead to fluctuations in labor supply [22]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the express delivery industry's current state, competitive landscape, and future expectations.

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development, emphasizing the need for stable and flexible policies[5] - The government plans to allocate approximately 90% of the 90 billion yuan budget for childcare subsidies from the central finance[6] Market Trends - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 2.75 basis points to 1.7200%[16] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, while the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2, surpassing expectations[8][9] Financial Market Performance - The bond market experienced a net cash injection of 158.5 billion yuan on July 30, following a 3,090 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by the central bank[12] - The weighted average interest rates for various repo transactions showed a downward trend, with DR001 and DR007 rates falling to 1.315% and 1.518%, respectively[13][14] Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, while natural gas prices fell by 1.89% to $3.016 per MMBtu[10] Bond Issuance and Trading - The bond auction results indicated a competitive bidding environment, with the 1-year agricultural development bond receiving a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3[18] - The convertible bond market saw a decline, with major indices dropping, and a total trading volume of 84.376 billion yuan, down by 5.53 billion yuan from the previous day[24]

第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 USD | | | 0.0001 | USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 US ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the recent "anti-involution" policies and their impact on pricing and competition in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increases**: Recent data indicates that express delivery prices in Yiwu and Guangdong have increased, with Yiwu's 0.3 kg regular item price rising by approximately 0.05 CNY compared to June, and Guangdong's 0.1 kg special item price increasing by 0.05 to 0.10 CNY [1][3]. - **Government Intervention**: The State Post Bureau has held meetings to address the issue of cutthroat competition, urging companies to stabilize their networks. Guangdong's drug administration has mandated price increases starting August 1, aligning with Yiwu's standards [2][3]. - **Historical Policy Review**: The effectiveness of past anti-involution policies is reviewed, noting that while the 2021 policies successfully raised industry price levels, the 2023 and 2024 price increases have only provided temporary support due to previous intense competition and cost pressures during the pandemic [1][5][6]. - **Profitability Pressure**: The current price competition is intensifying, with special pricing policies lowering average prices. Although headquarters are gaining more volume, this has led to reduced delivery fees for outlets, increasing operational pressure on both headquarters and franchisees, resulting in a decline in per-package profit [1][7][8]. Additional Important Content - **Future Profit Elasticity**: If significant price increases can be achieved, the profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery companies will notably increase. For instance, under a hypothetical price increase of 3% to 10%, companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong could see profit elasticity ranging from 10% to 34% and 18% to 60%, respectively [9]. - **Demand Forecast**: The overall demand for e-commerce express delivery is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 15% in the near future. The anti-involution policies are anticipated to stabilize prices, potentially reducing the intensity of competition in the latter half of the year [10]. - **Long-term Competition Dynamics**: While competition is expected to persist, stronger network capabilities among leading mid-tier companies will likely enhance their competitive advantages. Attention should also be given to improvements in last-mile efficiency and the development of autonomous delivery vehicles [10].