Group 1: Computer Research - The report highlights that the company, Electric Science Digital, has established industry-leading capabilities in the digital product business segment, covering intelligent computing hardware and software, and is positioned at the forefront of the digitalization field and new digital infrastructure [2][4] - The core subsidiary, Baifei Electronics, is a leader in domestic embedded computing, benefiting from the rising demand in the special electronic equipment sector, with a rapid increase in orders [4][5] - The future growth potential is significant, driven by AI and the "Xinchuang" initiative, with new orders related to AI exceeding one hundred [4][5] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials Research - The waterproofing industry is noted as the most thoroughly cleared sub-sector within consumer building materials, with leading companies expected to continue implementing price recovery strategies in 2026, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [6][8] - The report estimates that the market share of the top four companies in the waterproofing sector will approach 50% by 2024, suggesting a significant increase in industry concentration [8][9] - The report anticipates that the trend of price recovery will become more evident in 2026, supported by low asphalt prices at the beginning of the year [9][10] Group 3: Transportation Research - The report forecasts that the Chinese civil aviation sector will continue to recover in supply and demand in 2025, with expectations of the industry turning profitable [11][29] - Passenger traffic is projected to grow by 5-6% in 2025, with domestic routes increasing by 4% and international routes by over 20% [11][29] - The report indicates that the industry is entering a low growth phase in supply, with a projected 3.7% increase in the fleet size of seven A-share airlines by November 2025 [11][29]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 103.01 CNY, compared to the current price of 77.43 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company aims to create a "Chinese version of TPU" to seize opportunities in AI inference, leveraging its subsidiaries to penetrate the AI consumer electronics market. The consumer segment is expected to realize its potential soon, while enterprise orders are rapidly increasing, indicating a broad future growth space [2][10]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.51 billion CNY, 16.07 billion CNY, and 19.54 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, respectively, with a focus on optimizing its revenue structure through both consumer and enterprise segments [10][17]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 506 million CNY in 2023 to 1.95 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.6% [4][17]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to improve from -383 million CNY in 2023 to -208 million CNY in 2027, indicating a reduction in losses over the forecast period [4][17]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to increase from 20.94% in 2024 to 29.84% in 2027, driven by improvements in both consumer and enterprise segments [19]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Consumer segment revenue is anticipated to grow at a rate of 20% to 21% from 2025 to 2027, reaching approximately 4.87 million CNY, 5.89 million CNY, and 7.07 million CNY, respectively [14][15]. - Enterprise segment revenue is expected to see significant growth, with projections of 99.49%, 50.23%, and 30.11% year-on-year increases from 2025 to 2027, resulting in revenues of 4.96 million CNY, 7.45 million CNY, and 9.69 million CNY [15][16]. - Industry segment revenue is forecasted to grow modestly at 2% annually, reaching 2.59 million CNY, 2.64 million CNY, and 2.69 million CNY from 2025 to 2027 [16]. Valuation Analysis - The report utilizes both PS and PB valuation methods, concluding a reasonable valuation of 369.62 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 103.01 CNY [21][22]. - The company is expected to maintain a PS ratio of 23 times by 2026, reflecting its growth potential in the AI inference chip market [21][22]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading player in the AI sector, focusing on AI inference chips and aiming to capitalize on the rapid growth of the AI market, which is projected to expand significantly in the coming years [25][44]. - The strategic acquisition of Qiancheng Technology is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in integrating AI technology with consumer electronics, thereby accelerating its market penetration [14][45].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the upward trend in the prices of storage chips (DRAM), which benefits upstream semiconductor materials [4] - It notes significant profit growth for New Yangfeng, with a year-on-year increase of 23.87% in net profit excluding non-recurring items [4] - Strategic collaborations, such as the one between Boyuan Co. and Dingsheng Technology, are aimed at overcoming key material bottlenecks in solid-state batteries [4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on convertible bonds in the basic chemical sector, including Zhaobang Convertible Bond, Yangfeng Convertible Bond, and others [4] Market Performance - The report reviews the performance of issued convertible bonds in the basic chemical sector from December 19 to December 26, 2025, noting increases of 14.32% for Kaisheng Convertible Bond, 13.93% for Songlin Convertible Bond, and 12.31% for Zhenhua Convertible Bond, while Su Li, Qilin, and Kesi Convertible Bonds saw declines of 2.77%, 1.79%, and 0.42% respectively [5][6] Upcoming Convertible Bonds - As of December 26, 2025, several companies, including Jiangshan Co., Shuangle Co., and others, have received shareholder approval for their convertible bond proposals [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the progress of companies like MiniMax and Zhiyu Huazhang in their Hong Kong IPOs, indicating a growing scale in China's AI large model companies and optimism about the development and commercialization of AI technology [3] - The overall trend in AI technology development and commercialization is expected to significantly impact enterprise production and consumer behavior, presenting various investment opportunities [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with layouts in AI algorithms, applications, and upstream/downstream sectors, including Meitu, Zhejiang Shuju, Shenzhou Taiyue, and Kunlun Wanwei [8] - In the marketing sector, companies that can improve content production and delivery algorithms through AI are recommended, such as ZhiDeMai and related companies like Xindong (Taptap platform) [8] - AI is anticipated to transform game production processes, enhance efficiency, and increase capacity, with recommendations for companies like Kaiying Network, Giant Network, Century Huatong, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Perfect World [8] - The value of quality content IP is expected to become more prominent, with recommendations for companies like Damai Entertainment, Shanghai Film, and CITIC Publishing [9] - In the AI education sector, companies such as Phoenix Media, Southern Media, and Zhongyuan Media are recommended, along with related companies like Wanxin Media [10] MiniMax: Global Layout and Revenue Growth Driven by AI Applications - MiniMax has been engaged in AI large model research since early 2022, focusing on various modalities and achieving significant revenue growth [12] - The company reported a revenue of $53.437 million for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 175% [34] - MiniMax's main revenue source comes from AI native products and enterprise services, with AI native product revenue reaching $38.02 million in the first three quarters of 2025, up 181% year-on-year [32] Zhiyu: Large Language Model GLM and MaaS Business - Zhiyu has developed a comprehensive model matrix based on its large language model GLM-4.7, which aligns with Claude Sonnet4.5 [3] - The company has diversified its revenue through a MaaS platform, offering standardized and customized deployment options [3] - Zhiyu's revenue for the first half of 2025 was $19.1 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 325% [34] Market Outlook - The large model application market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 80% in the next five years, with MiniMax positioned among the top players in the industry [22] - The global large model market is expected to reach $14.6 billion in application revenue and $7.4 billion in MaaS revenue by 2025, with significant growth anticipated by 2029 [25] Technological Advancements - MiniMax's latest model, M2.1, has shown significant improvements in programming capabilities and is competitive with models like Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.2 [40] - The Hailuo series of video generation models, particularly Hailuo 2.3, has achieved global competitiveness and offers the best cost-performance ratio in the market [44] - MiniMax Speech has become a core infrastructure in the global voice technology field, with the latest Speech 2.6 model optimizing audio generation for real-time applications [56]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is expected to continue its recovery in supply and demand in 2025, with a forecasted industry-wide turnaround from losses to profitability [3][6]. - Demand is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated 5-6% increase in passenger traffic in 2025, including a 4% rise in domestic routes and over 20% in international routes [6][10]. - The supply side is entering a low growth phase, with a projected 3.7% increase in the fleet size of seven A-share airlines by November 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [6][19]. - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high of 85%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][22]. - Ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with domestic ticket prices estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year in 2025 [6][25]. - The industry is anticipated to significantly reduce losses and turn profitable in 2025, with quarterly performance showing improvements in profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Passenger traffic is expected to grow by 5-6% in 2025, with domestic routes increasing by 4% and international routes by over 20% [6][10]. - The industry is entering a low growth phase, with a projected 6% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) [6][19]. Load Factor and Pricing - The passenger load factor is projected to increase by 1.8 percentage points to 85% [6][22]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, while international ticket prices may see significant increases in the latter half of the year due to strong inbound demand [6][25]. Profitability Outlook - The industry is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant reductions in losses anticipated throughout the year [6]. - Quarterly performance indicates that the first quarter may see limited profit improvement due to high base effects, while the second quarter is expected to show substantial recovery [6].

公 司 研 究 混改效果持续体现，收入和净利润维持增长 柳工(000528) 公司 2026 年年度财务预算议案点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵靖博(分析师) | 021-23185625 | zhaojingbo@gtht.com | S0880525040056 | 本报告导读： 目前挖机内销温和复苏，海外销售结构性改善，公司智能化、电动化、全球化布局 完善，混改效果突出，业绩有望持续释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 27,519 | 30,063 | 34,368 | 39,305 | 43,184 | | (+/-)% | 3.9% | 9.2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Insights - Recent significant increases in copper and fiberglass cloth prices have led the company to issue a price increase notice for its copper-clad laminates, with the frequency of price hikes during the peak season exceeding expectations, validating the positive outlook for the copper-clad laminate and electronic cloth industries driven by AI demand [2][10]. - The company is positioned as a rare integrated player in the industry, with a simultaneous push for product upgrades, which is expected to lead to a dual benefit of price increases and enhanced profitability [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2024A: 18,541 million HKD - 2025E: 21,784 million HKD (+11%) - 2026E: 25,080 million HKD (+17%) - 2027E: 28,353 million HKD (+15%) [4]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024A: 1,326 million HKD - 2025E: 2,349 million HKD (+77%) - 2026E: 3,123 million HKD (+33%) - 2027E: 3,815 million HKD (+22%) [4]. - The company maintains a target price of 20 HKD [10]. Market Data - The current stock price is 13.18 HKD, with a market capitalization of 41,324 million HKD and a total share count of 3,135 million [7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 6.68 to 13.92 HKD over the past 52 weeks [7]. Industry Context - The company is benefiting from a favorable pricing cycle in the copper-clad laminate market, with multiple price increases already implemented in recent months due to rising costs of raw materials [10]. - The strategic focus on high-end product structures is expected to align with the price increase cycle, enhancing profitability as new products are gradually introduced [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the commercial aerospace industry Core Insights - The Long March 12甲遥一 rocket flight test was successfully completed, with the second stage entering the designated orbit, although the first stage was not successfully recovered [6] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released guidelines for the fifth set of listing standards for commercial rocket companies, focusing on market capitalization and R&D rather than revenue and profit [10] - The 2025 Third Commercial Aerospace Development Conference was held in Beijing, highlighting key technology innovations and the establishment of a 2 billion yuan fund for commercial aerospace [12][13] - Blue Arrow Aerospace completed its IPO counseling work, indicating readiness for public offering [16] Summary by Sections Industry Development Dynamics - The Long March 12甲遥一 rocket was launched on December 23, 2025, achieving key flight data despite not recovering the first stage [6] - The new listing standards for commercial rocket companies emphasize "market value + R&D" as evaluation criteria, facilitating IPO applications [10] - The Third Commercial Aerospace Development Conference focused on technology innovation and industry collaboration, with a new fund established to support high-growth startups [12][13] - Blue Arrow Aerospace has completed its IPO counseling, preparing for its public offering [16] Industry Financing Progress - Elliptical Space completed a financing round of several hundred million yuan to advance its "Star Pool Project," which involves a constellation of 112 intelligent satellites [18][19] - Xingyi Space secured nearly 300 million yuan in Pre-A financing to enhance its global measurement and control capabilities [23][24] Capital Market Performance - The Wind Commercial Aerospace Index saw an 8.36% increase in the week of December 22-26, 2025, with a trading volume of 542.1 billion yuan [27] - 88.89% of the companies in the commercial aerospace sector experienced stock price increases during this period, with notable gains from companies like Chaojie Co., China Satellite, and Beidou Star [30]

Group 1 - The report suggests an overweight allocation to risk assets in January 2026, particularly in AH shares and US stocks, as well as gold and industrial commodities, due to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and quantitative easing [1][4][5] - The strategic asset allocation (SAA) framework aims to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks, while tactical asset allocation (TAA) identifies short-term risk-return characteristics to enhance returns [4][25] - The recommended equity allocation weight is 50.00%, with specific allocations of 10.00% to A shares, 10.00% to Hong Kong stocks, and 17.50% to US stocks, while European stocks are underweighted at 2.50% [4][5][25] Group 2 - The report highlights a positive outlook for Chinese equities, driven by upcoming economic policy changes and a stable RMB, suggesting an overweight position in A/H shares [4][5][25] - The bond allocation is set at 35.00%, with a neutral stance, recommending a mix of long-term and short-term government bonds [4][5][25] - The commodity allocation is recommended at 15.00%, with an overweight in gold (8.00%) and industrial commodities (5.00%), while oil is underweighted at 2.00% [4][5][25] Group 3 - The macroeconomic cycle tracking indicates a favorable environment for certain asset classes, with specific scores for inventory and financial cycles in both China and the US [16][19] - The macro factor risk parity model developed by the research team aims to control macro risks while utilizing factor allocation advantages, enhancing the effectiveness of strategic asset allocation [25][27] - The tactical allocation strategy, based on the Black-Litterman model, has shown significant performance, achieving an annualized return of 59% in 2025, indicating the effectiveness of combining subjective and quantitative research [34][40][44]

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The report highlights that the liquor industry is accelerating its bottoming process, moving towards supply-demand balance, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye expected to stimulate sales through price adjustments in 2026 [3] - The domestic dairy product sector is anticipated to see accelerated domestic substitution due to temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy products, which may increase domestic milk consumption and reverse the industry cycle [3] - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with price elasticity such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as high-growth beverage companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [2][3] Group 2: Banking Sector - The report on Ningbo Bank indicates a strong growth trajectory in loans, with a year-on-year increase of 17.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily driven by corporate clients [10] - The bank's net profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 8.6%, 10.9%, and 12.4%, respectively, with a target price of 38.89 yuan per share [9] - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a decrease in non-performing loan generation rate from 1.23% in Q1 2024 to 0.92% in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in credit risk management [11] Group 3: Energy Sector - PX and PTA prices have been on the rise since October 2025, with PX futures increasing from 6296 yuan/ton to 7324 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.33% [13] - The polyester production in China showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating robust downstream demand [14] - The report anticipates a tight supply-demand balance for PX in the first half of 2026, with new capacity expected to come online in the second half of the year [14] Group 4: Brain-Computer Interface Industry - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the development of brain-computer interfaces in China, with numerous policies being introduced to support the industry [6] - Clinical trials for invasive and semi-invasive brain-computer interfaces are expected to surge, with several companies like Borui Kang aiming for regulatory approval in 2026 [8] - The commercialization of non-invasive brain-computer interfaces is already underway in areas such as brain monitoring and rehabilitation, indicating early market entry [8]