| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...

AI 驱动价值跃迁，生态闭环筑牢增长确定性 联想集团(0992) ——联想集团 FY26Q3 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | 刁云鹏(研究助理) | 021-38674878 | diaoyunpeng@gtht.com | S0880125070016 | 本报告导读： 顺应 AI 从训练向推理转型趋势，联想集团构建终端、算力、服务生态闭环，营收与 利润增长显著，实现从 PC 巨头向 AI 生态核心枢纽的转型。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 56,864 | 69,077 | 80,456 | 87,789 | 94,819 | | 同比增长（%） | -8.2% | 21.5% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The successful demonstration of the Long March 10 rocket system and the crewed Dream Chaser spacecraft marks a significant breakthrough in China's manned lunar exploration program, with commercial aerospace applications expected to expand rapidly [3][6]. - The Long March 10 rocket's controlled splashdown indicates a potential breakthrough in rocket payload capacity, enhancing expectations for industry growth and satellite manufacturing [3][6]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On February 11, 2026, the Long March 10 rocket system successfully completed a low-altitude demonstration and the maximum dynamic pressure escape flight test of the Dream Chaser crewed spacecraft, marking a critical milestone in China's manned lunar exploration efforts [6]. - This test is notable as it is the first maximum dynamic pressure escape test for a Chinese spacecraft and the first time a crewed spacecraft's return capsule has splashed down at sea [6]. Investment Highlights - The successful test of the Long March 10 rocket is expected to increase demand for rocket launches, benefiting leading commercial rocket companies with "high payload + reusable" technology, such as Plutotech and other key component suppliers [6]. - The report suggests focusing on satellite manufacturing companies capable of large-scale, low-cost production, as well as core component suppliers like Zhenlei Technology and ST Chengchang [6]. - The ongoing lunar exploration program is anticipated to create more opportunities for space photovoltaic applications, with recommended companies including Maiwei Technology and Jiejia Weichuang [6]. Profit Forecasts for Related Companies - The report includes a profit forecast table for key companies in the satellite manufacturing and rocket launch sectors, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 to 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music [7] Core Insights - The company is enhancing collaboration with copyright holders to enrich audio content, resulting in a year-on-year increase in user scale and activity [3] - The report forecasts revenue growth for NetEase Cloud Music, with expected revenues of 84.3 billion, 92.1 billion, and 101.5 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of +8.6%, +9.3%, and +10.1% [26] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 22.6 billion, 26.1 billion, and 30.0 billion RMB for the same years, with a year-on-year change of -21.2%, +15.8%, and +14.4% [26] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 7,950 million RMB, with a slight increase of 1.1% year-on-year, and expected to reach 10,145 million RMB by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% [5] - Gross profit is expected to rise from 2,682 million RMB in 2024 to 4,259 million RMB in 2028, with gross margin improving from 33.7% to 42.0% [5] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to increase from 1,700 million RMB in 2024 to 2,987 million RMB in 2028, with a significant jump of 107.7% in 2025 [5] Business Performance - In the second half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 39.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a gross margin of 35.0%, up by 2.7 percentage points [26] - Online music revenue reached 30.3 billion RMB in the second half of 2025, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, with subscription revenue increasing by 11.6% to 25.8 billion RMB [26] - The company is focusing on high-quality development of its core music ecosystem, with user engagement metrics showing improvement [26] Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 130.70 and 302.40 HKD, with a current market capitalization of 36,038 million HKD [8]

公 司 研 究 传播文化业 [Table_Industry] /社会服务 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 34.48 | 本报告导读： 恺英网络在 AI 应用领域多维布局，战略投资公司自然选择在研多个 C 端 AI产品， 情感陪伴产品《EVE》持续推进，近期推出的《Elys》则是在 AI社交领域的一次积 极探索。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 4,295 | 5,118 | 6,111 | 7,769 | 8,994 | | (+/-)% | 15.3% | 19.2% | 19.4% | 27.1% | 15.8% | | 净利润(归母) | 1,462 | 1,628 | 2,234 | 2,984 | 3,557 | | (+/-)% | 42.6% | 11.4% | 37.2% | 3 ...

Fixed Income Research - The "multiple price bidding" in both reverse repos and MLF only affects the transparency and signal effect of tool interest rates, not the central bank's ability to dynamically adjust the pricing of liquidity tools [2][4][40] Biopharmaceutical Research - The medical device procurement level is expected to be driven by the long-term implementation of equipment update policies, with recommendations for companies likely to benefit from this policy, such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and others [8][9] - In January 2026, the procurement scale for new medical devices showed a decline, with MRI down 22.6%, CT down 25.6%, and surgical robots down 20.1% [8][9] Industry Insights - The equipment update policy aims for a 25% increase in medical equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023, enhancing high-end equipment configuration to match middle-income countries [9] - The release of the "Guidelines for the Establishment of Medical Service Price Projects" for surgical robots is expected to accelerate their penetration and promote the commercialization of innovative medical equipment [10]

Group 1: Communication Equipment and Services - The report confirms a price increase trend in the optical fiber industry, driven by a significant rise in demand for G657A2 overseas, leading to a reduction in G652D supply and longer delivery times, with prices expected to continue rising due to increased pre-holiday inventory demand from telecom operators [2][7] - The export performance of optical fiber and cable has been outstanding, with overseas demand for optical fibers driven by AI data centers and DCI (data center interconnect) scenarios, marking exports as a crucial profit growth point for companies in the optical fiber and cable industry [3][8] - The demand for specialty and multimode fibers is growing, with companies like Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable achieving significant advancements in hollow-core fiber technology, indicating a strong focus on R&D and application in data centers [4][9] Group 2: Weichai Power (潍柴动力) - Weichai Power is transitioning from a heavy-duty truck powertrain manufacturer to a comprehensive supplier of AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) power generation equipment, with expected net profits of 12.4 billion, 15.3 billion, and 17.7 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][11] - The global AIDC investment is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected increase in data center power demand from 97 GW in 2024 to 226 GW by 2030, creating significant opportunities for Weichai Power's gas generator sets and SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) products [11][12] - Weichai Power's deep involvement in gas generator sets and SOFC is anticipated to enhance its revenue from AIDC power sources, with significant growth expected in the coming years [12] Group 3: Yum China (百胜中国) - Yum China's same-store sales accelerated, with a 3% year-on-year increase in Q4 2025, driven by a rise in delivery sales, which accounted for 53% of total sales [13][14] - The company plans to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.005 billion, 1.062 billion, and 1.143 billion USD for 2026 to 2028, supported by a robust store expansion strategy [13][14] - Operational efficiency has improved, with restaurant profit margins increasing due to reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent, despite rising delivery costs [15] Group 4: Industrial Insights in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is experiencing a shift towards smart manufacturing, with the service sector becoming the dominant industry, while traditional industries are undergoing transformation [24][25] - Beijing is focusing on high-tech industries, particularly in information technology and integrated circuits, as part of its strategic development plan [25][26] - Tianjin and Hebei are also enhancing their industrial capabilities, with a focus on biotechnology and traditional manufacturing upgrades [26] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The report highlights a recovery in investor sentiment towards innovative drugs in the U.S. pharmaceutical sector, driven by policy stabilization and active mergers and acquisitions [27] - In oncology, the dual antibody PD-1/VEGF is moving into clinical resonance, with several global phase III trials expected to yield significant data in 2026 [27][28] - The report notes the expansion of the self-pay market for obesity treatments, indicating a shift in treatment paradigms towards multi-pathway approaches [28][29] Group 6: Brain-Computer Interface Industry - The integration of AI with brain-computer interfaces is expected to drive industry growth, with a focus on non-invasive technologies and clinical applications [30][31] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape between the U.S. and China in developing core technologies, with significant policy support in China accelerating industry standardization [31][32] - Commercialization is gaining momentum in healthcare, with applications in various fields such as rehabilitation and consumer health, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for leading companies [32]

债 券 研 究 首批商业不动产 REITs 集中申报 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) REIT 策略周报 本报告导读： 建议把握市场震荡过程中的配置机会，静待下一轮行情催化。 投资要点： | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 策 略 周 报 动量因子反转，重视估值防御 2026.01.31 地方债利差持续收窄，超长端收窄更为明显 2026.01.28 银行还"缺负债"吗：来自存单和票据的印证 2026.01.27 银行年初的"补仓"进行到哪一阶段了 2026.01.26 产业永续债品种利差还可挖掘 2026.01.26 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 市 场 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02. ...

——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 5 期） 本报告导读： 节前赶工托底经济活跃度，内生动能待提升，新兴产业与原油有色涨价成亮点。 投资要点： | 节前效应主导 | [Table_Authors] | 李林芷(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 5 期） | | 021-23185646 | | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | 节前赶工托底经济活跃度，内生动能待提升，新兴产业与原油有色涨价成亮点。 | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | | 010-83939827 | | 投资要点： | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | [Table_Summary] 上周政策围绕民生福祉提质与发展秩序优化展开，民生端聚焦养老、 | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | 殡葬、支付等场景强化普惠适老保障，市场端规范经营乱象、激活 | | | | 服务消费，同步优化城际铁路与能源电价机制，筑牢民生底线并激 | | 梁中华(分析师) | | 活发 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in trading activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the gains, particularly the Shanghai 50 index, which saw a rise in valuation [1][4] - Valuation changes are mixed across broad indices, with the Shanghai 50 index leading with a PE-TTM increase of 3.7 percentage points and a PB-LF increase of 6.4 percentage points [4][5] - The report highlights that the food and beverage sector leads in PE valuation, while the oil and petrochemical sector leads in PB valuation [4][5] Index Valuation - The report notes that the Shanghai 50 index has a PE-TTM historical percentile of 80.1, with a 3.7 percentage point increase, and a PB-LF historical percentile of 54.1, with a 6.4 percentage point increase [5] - The overall valuation for the broad indices shows mixed results, with the Shanghai 50 index leading the gains [4][5] Sector Valuation - The food and beverage sector shows a PE increase of 2.4 percentage points, leading among industries, while the oil and petrochemical sector shows a PB increase of 6.4 percentage points [4][5] - The report identifies that the power equipment and new energy sectors offer good value in terms of PE-G comparison [4][5] Market Sentiment - Trading activity has increased, with turnover rates rising across indices, particularly the Shanghai 50 index, which saw a 3.7% increase in turnover rate [4][5] - The total trading volume across indices has risen, with the Shanghai 50 index leading with a 29.6% increase in trading volume [4][5] - The margin trading balance as of January 29, 2026, is reported at 2.70 trillion, reflecting a 0.58% increase compared to January 23, 2026 [4][5] Risk Premium - The report notes a slight increase in the equity risk premium (ERP), which stands at 3.98%, up by 0.06 percentage points from January 23, 2026 [4][5]