Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the positive signals from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to benefit the home furnishing sector [4][6] - The report suggests that the paper industry is likely to experience a small recovery due to price increases in cultural paper and favorable competition dynamics [4][6] - The report highlights the potential for AI integration in home design and the positive outlook for companies involved in AI home products [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 1.34%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.39%, resulting in a slight underperformance of 0.05 percentage points [6] - The home furnishing, paper, packaging, and entertainment products sectors recorded respective increases of 1.24%, 0.95%, 0.99%, and 3.02% [6] 2. Paper Industry Tracking - The report notes a mixed trend in paper prices, with packaging paper prices declining slightly, while cultural paper prices remained relatively stable [4][6] - Specific price data includes: - Corrugated paper at 2766 CNY/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week - Boxboard paper at 3687 CNY/ton, down 0.3% week-on-week - White card paper at 4318 CNY/ton, down 0.05% week-on-week - Double glue paper at 5445 CNY/ton, up 0.4% week-on-week - Copper plate paper at 5820 CNY/ton, up 0.4% week-on-week [4][6] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - The report highlights government initiatives to stimulate the housing market, including a 300 billion CNY subsidy for consumer goods, which includes home furnishings [4] - Data from March indicates a significant increase in new residential supply, with 721 million square meters expected, marking a 166% month-on-month increase [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home and Sophia, due to their strong retail business and potential for performance recovery [4] 4. Export Sector Tracking - The report discusses recent changes in tariffs affecting the automotive industry, which may have implications for the broader export market [4] - Export data for January-February shows a total export value of 539.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, although home furnishing exports decreased by 15.5% [4][6] 5. Consumer Sector Tracking - The government has emphasized the need to boost consumption and investment, aiming to make domestic demand a key driver of economic growth [4] - The report identifies opportunities in AI glasses and personal care products, recommending companies that have performed well during promotional periods [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction and decoration industry, driven by increased government spending and infrastructure investment [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds and an increase in the deficit ratio are expected to promote stable growth in infrastructure investment, which remains a crucial driver for economic stability [3][4]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, aimed at various investment projects [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on urban village and dilapidated housing renovations to stimulate housing demand [4][5]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: debt reduction driving improvements in state-owned construction enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative accelerating international engineering projects, and high-dividend state-owned construction companies presenting attractive investment opportunities [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on expanding effective investment [12]. - The report outlines the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds and a deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan for 2025, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending [12]. Market Performance Tracking - The construction engineering sector (SW) experienced a slight decline of 0.22% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, while the overall A-share index rose by 2.43% [13][14]. - The report notes that the construction sector's performance relative to the overall market has been underwhelming, with a negative excess return of -2.65 percentage points [13][14]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks financing data, noting that 904.59 billion yuan in urban investment bonds were issued during the period from March 1 to March 7, 2025, with a net financing amount of 244.43 billion yuan [23]. - As of March 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 609.765 billion yuan, accounting for 13.86% of the annual plan [25][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The recent decline in oil prices is expected to elevate the profit margins for the aviation sector, with Brent crude falling below $70 per barrel and WTI below $67 per barrel [9] - The report estimates that if low oil prices persist, major airlines could save between 4 to 5 billion yuan in costs, equivalent to a 3% to 4% change in ticket prices [9] - The overall demand for the express delivery sector remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in both volume and revenue [4][21] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The focus is on the rapid decline in oil prices, which is anticipated to boost the profit margins for airlines [5][9] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.02 - 03.08) Aviation High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic flight volume for the week was 81,367 flights, averaging 11,624 flights per day, down 10.07% week-on-week and 7.47% year-on-year [11] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.06 million, down 12.05% week-on-week and 4.17% year-on-year [12] - The average ticket price decreased by 4.76% week-on-week and 3.39% year-on-year [12] - The domestic load factor was 83.18%, up 3.73 percentage points year-on-year [13] Express Delivery High-Frequency Data Tracking - From February 24 to March 2, the average daily collection volume was approximately 534 million pieces, with a week-on-week change of -0.56% [20] - Year-to-date (January 1 to March 2), the average daily collection volume was about 488 million pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.41% [21] - In 2024, the express delivery business volume grew by 21.5% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 13.8% [4][21] Shipping High-Frequency Data Tracking - The BDI index for the dry bulk market was 1,263 points, up 17% week-on-week [52] - The CCFI index for the international container shipping market fell by 3%, while the SCFI index decreased by 5% [52] - The VLCC-TCE rate for oil shipping was $39,359 per day, down 1% week-on-week [53] Recent Key Reports - The report recommends a focus on specific companies within the industry, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Shandong Highway, and various airlines and express delivery companies [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Australia's pension investments in the US are expected to exceed AUD 1 trillion in the future [2] - The analysis focuses on various pension management entities and their projected performance metrics for 2024 and beyond [6][10] Summary by Sections Pension Management - Key players in pension management include CalPERS, The People's Pension, GPFG, NPS, and GPIF, with various performance metrics outlined for 2024 [6][7][8] Pension Investment - The report provides detailed insights into the investment strategies and expected returns of major pension funds, including specific percentages and projected growth rates for 2024 [10][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic computing power construction driven by favorable policies, particularly in the AIDC electrical equipment sector [3][9] - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing an influx of new players, indicating a rapid industrialization process [12] - The photovoltaic industry is entering a phase of profit recovery due to demand surges, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency-enhancing technologies [14][16] - The wind power sector is shifting towards high-quality development, with government support for offshore wind power highlighted for the first time [15][17] - The electric grid sector remains robust, with significant tender results indicating sustained demand [18][20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the ongoing trends in solid-state batteries, AIDC electrical equipment, humanoid robots, lithium batteries, photovoltaic technology, wind power, and electric grid developments [6][8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - AIDC Electrical Equipment: Mingyang Electric, Jinpan Technology, Keda Technology - Robotics: Keda Li - Lithium Batteries: CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Keda Li, Zhongwei Shares, Putailai, Teradyne - Electric Power Equipment: XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, China West Electric, Siyuan Electric, Mingyang Electric, Wangbian Electric - Photovoltaics: Tongwei Co., Artis, JinkoSolar, Junda Shares, Deye Shares, Foster (chemical group coverage), Flat Glass - Wind Power: Oriental Cable, Haile Wind Power, Taisheng Wind Power, Jinlei Shares, Tiensun Wind Power [3][8] AIDC Electrical Equipment - The report highlights the rapid growth in demand for AIDC servers driven by AI applications, leading to increased requirements for power supply systems and related equipment [3][9] Robotics - The government has introduced strong support for humanoid robots, emphasizing their role in future industries [10][11] Lithium Batteries - The solid-state battery sector is expected to see significant advancements, with major players planning to launch production by 2027 [7][12] Photovoltaics - The report notes a recovery in the photovoltaic industry driven by demand surges and price increases across various segments [14][16] Wind Power - The government’s focus on offshore wind power marks a strategic shift towards utilizing marine resources, with expectations for significant growth in installed capacity [15][17] Electric Grid - Recent tender results from the State Grid indicate a strong demand for transmission and transformation equipment, with a total bid amount of 15.239 billion yuan [18][20]

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for the communication industry, indicating a positive outlook with a projected growth of 2.51% to 3.86% during the period from March 3 to March 9, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The demand for AI agents and their computational requirements are highlighted, with specific calculations showing the need for significant FLOPs (floating-point operations per second) to support AI functionalities [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the growth trajectory of 5G technology, projecting a 10% increase in adoption rates by 2024, with further growth expected through 2030 [6]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the communication industry is experiencing a shift towards AI integration, with companies like DeepSeek and Azure AI Foundry leading the charge in developing advanced AI solutions [6]. - It mentions the expected increase in 5G adoption rates, with projections indicating a rise from 47% in 2024 to 64% by 2030 [6]. Major Events Reminder - Key upcoming events in the communication sector include shareholder meetings for companies such as Mingpu Guangci and ST Tiexin scheduled for March 10 and March 11, respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to show strong performance, with significant increases in stock prices for various companies [3][4][8] - The central political bureau has reinforced support for the real estate market, including measures to lower reserve requirements and interest rates, aiming to stabilize the market [3][40] - The report recommends overweighting the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting specific companies for investment [3][41] Market Overview - The main indices showed positive performance, with notable increases in stock prices for Hong Kong local stocks such as Cheung Kong (+27.4%), New World Development (+10.0%), and Kerry Properties (+7.7%) [4][5] - The property management sector also performed well, with companies like Binhai Service (+14.7%), Country Garden Services (+10.1%), and Beike (+9.0%) leading the gains [11][12] Company Performance - Among the top-performing companies in the domestic real estate sector, Greentown China increased by 7.7%, Yuexiu Property by 6.4%, and China Jinmao by 5.4% [8][9] - The report provides detailed stock performance metrics, including price changes and market capitalization for various companies [5][9][12] Policy Support - The central economic meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market through proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies [40] - A series of policy measures have been introduced to support the real estate sector, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and mortgage rates [40][41] Investment Strategy - The report highlights the unique appeal of Hong Kong local companies, citing low financial leverage and stable rental income as key advantages [39] - Specific recommendations include companies such as Beike, Greentown China, China Resources Land, and others in both the real estate and property management sectors [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent decline in oil prices is expected to elevate the profit margins for the aviation sector, with Brent oil prices dropping below $70 per barrel and WTI prices below $67 per barrel [8] - The report suggests that if oil prices remain low, it could lead to cost savings of approximately 4-5 billion yuan for major airlines, equivalent to a ticket price reduction of about 3%-4% [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions to ensure that the benefits of lower oil prices translate into profits for the airlines [13] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The focus of the week is on the accelerated decline in oil prices, which is expected to enhance the profit margins for the aviation industry [6] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.02 - 03.08) Aviation High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic flight volume for the period was 81,367 flights, with a daily average of 11,624 flights, down 10.07% week-on-week and 7.47% year-on-year [10] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.0615 million, down 12.05% week-on-week and 4.17% year-on-year [11] - The average full ticket price decreased by 4.76% week-on-week and 3.39% year-on-year [11] - The domestic passenger load factor was 83.18%, an increase of 3.73 percentage points year-on-year [12] - International passenger volume reached 1.315 million, down 5.27% week-on-week but up 26.01% year-on-year [14] Express Delivery High-Frequency Data Tracking - For the week of February 24 to March 2, the average daily express delivery volume was approximately 534 million pieces, with a delivery volume of about 541 million pieces, showing a slight decrease of 0.56% and an increase of 0.05% respectively compared to the previous week [19] - Year-to-date (January 1 to March 2), the average daily express delivery volume was approximately 488 million pieces, up 37.41% year-on-year [20] Shipping High-Frequency Data Tracking - The BDI index for the international dry bulk market was 1,263 points, up 17% week-on-week [51] - The CCFI index for the international container shipping market decreased by 3% week-on-week, while the SCFI index fell by 5% [51] - The VLCC-TCE rate for oil shipping was $39,359 per day, down 1% week-on-week [52] Recent Key Reports - The report includes a recommended investment portfolio consisting of companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, Shandong Hi-Speed, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [5]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights positive signals from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on a 300 billion yuan subsidy for consumer goods [3][4] - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from these policies, with leading companies like Oppein Home and Sophia recommended for investment due to their high retail business ratios [3][4] - The paper industry is experiencing price differentiation, with cultural paper prices showing resilience despite overall weak demand [3][4] - Export data indicates a slight increase in overall exports, but home furnishing exports are under pressure due to high base effects and tariff impacts [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector outperformed the market with a 1.34% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.39% [5] - Key sectors such as home furnishing, paper, and packaging printing showed varied performance, with home furnishing up by 1.24% [5] 2. Paper Sector Tracking - Major raw material prices showed mixed trends, with domestic needle pulp averaging 5847 yuan/ton, down 1.6% week-on-week [12][23] - Finished paper prices varied, with corrugated paper at 2766 yuan/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, while cultural paper prices remained relatively stable [25][31] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - Government policies are expected to stimulate the home furnishing market, with a projected increase in new residential supply in key cities [3][4] - Home furnishing exports faced challenges, with a 15.5% year-on-year decline in furniture exports for January-February 2025 [36] 4. Other Sector Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at $70.36 per barrel, down 4.29% week-on-week [42] - Polyethylene prices increased slightly to 7892 yuan/ton, while polypropylene prices decreased to 7306 yuan/ton [43][44]

宏观经济研究 | 中国宏观经济点评 证券研究报告 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 07 日 分析师：段超 研究助理：谢智勇 xiezhiyong@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证宏观】从投资于物到投资于人 — —2025 年政府工作报告解读-2025.03.05 【兴证宏观】PMI 缘何超预期？基数与 基数之外 ——2 月 PMI 数据点评- 2025.03.01 【兴证宏观】科技与内需的天平 —— 2025 年两会前瞻-2025.02.26 如何解读开年外需形势和内需格局？ ——2025 年 1-2 月进出口数据点评 投资要点： 美元计价下，中国 2025 年 1-2 月出口累计同比 2.3%，低于万得一致预期的 3.3%，前值 10.7%；进口 1-2 月累计同比-8.4%，低于万得一致预期的-2.9%，前值 1.0%；贸易顺差 1705.2 亿美元，较去年同期增长 458.8 亿美元。我们认为： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/9 ⚫ 如何评估开年出口表现：外需实际动能不弱。如果从同比读数来看，开年出口表现不及 市场预期。同比读数低受多重因素影响：一是去年同期基数偏高，2024 年开年出口增 ...